Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)

Liberal contenders jockey to succeed the late Jim Molan in the Senate and contest the forthcoming by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston.

We’re not likely to see anything on the polling front this week, but there is other electoral news to relate following recent parliamentary vacancies and party defections:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports preselection nominees to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy are likely to include Andrew Constance, former state minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore, and Fiona Scott, who held the lower house seat of Lindsay from 2013 to 2016, together with reported front-runner Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. Constance and Scott are associated with the moderation faction, while McInerney is a conservative. Mary-Lou Jarvis, lawyer and Woollahra councillor, has also written to senior party figures staking her claim as a qualified woman and the third candidate on the ticket at last year’s election, while also criticising the party’s apparent intention to leave the position vacant until after the state election on March 25.

• The Australian reports the Liberal hierarchy’s hopes of fielding a female candidate for the Aston by-election stand to be complicated by the entry into the field of Emanuele Cicchiello, who is rated a strong chance by sources close to eastern suburbs conservative powerbroker and Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, other unidentified sources, “including some with strong Right faction allegiances”, rubbished the notion. Cicchiello is deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College, a former mayor of Knox and contestant for the seat of Bruce in 2013 and numerous preselections since. All other noted contenders have been women with the exception of Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Alan Tudge, who has since ruled himself out. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the matter could be determined by a plebisicite of local members, which have lately proved resistant to female candidates, if the by-election is set for a date that allows sufficient time.

• Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation from the Greens last week marked the first change to party representation in parliament since the election, with the Senate numbers now at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one and two independents, namely Thorpe and David Pocock. This leaves the government needing two extra votes when the Greens are on board and the Coalition are not, where formerly it needed only one. Thorpe was elected to a six-year term at the election last May, which will extend to the middle of 2028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 thoughts on “Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)”

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  1. C@t – Yes, but the party room is not going to want Angus Taylor over Dutton. It is the same as going with Ley but probably worse, especially if FICAC starts working on his water dealings.

  2. Perhaps Labor could really make Aston a test for Peter Dutton with slogans like:

    “Show your support for Peter Dutton – Vote Liberal.”
    “Stop Labor wrecking tax avoidance – Vote Liberal.”
    “Keep the faith with Scomo and Dutto – Vote Liberal.”
    “A Woman’s place is in the home, not parliament – Vote Liberal.”

    Just trying to help 😀

    Cat

    Where/when was the Paul Dibb interview? I just tried looking for it on RN website but could not find it.

  3. B.S. Fairman @ #2047 Monday, February 20th, 2023 – 12:26 pm

    C@t – Yes, but the party room is not going to want Angus Taylor over Dutton. It is the same as going with Ley but probably worse, especially if FICAC starts working on his water dealings.

    And I get that but they were happy to put Taylor up as Shadow Treasurer, so you can’t be sure about anything with the Coalition. They would just attempt to brazen their way through any subsequent criticism I imagine.

  4. Cat

    Where/when was the Paul Dibb interview? I just tried looking for it on RN website but could not find it.

    It was between 9-9.30am, Soc. 🙂

    Do you know whether they put the whole show on the ABC Listen app? You could probably find it there, if so.

  5. Bk

    Done similar good work with other victims. Though not dealing at this level of distress.
    Will take off velvet glove later hopefully when we get to Morrison and Payne advisers

  6. Enough Already says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 12:03 pm
    ************
    Shorter Cronus at 11:55 -Dehumanising the enemy is stupid and counterproductive.
    Why you persist in positioning a discussion about how to best support Ukraine in prosecuting one of the few just wars of the last 80 years as a discussion of your moral compass is beyond me.

  7. A new report from Rolling Stone claims that allies of former President Donald Trump have warned him that one of his top lawyers is “very likely” to face criminal charges in the coming months.

    According to the publication’s sources, Trump attorneys who have reviewed the actions of fellow Trump lawyer Evan Corcoran believe he is highly vulnerable to obstruction of justice charges over his actions to defend the former president in the United States Department of Justice’s probe of his handling of top-secret government documents that he kept stashed at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

    At issue, writes Rolling Stone, is the fact that Corcoran drafted a sworn statement about having conducted a “diligent search” for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, despite the fact that there will still several boxes of such documents at the resort at the time of the statement.

    Although Trump attorney Christina Bobb was the lawyer who put her name on the statement, it appears that prosecutors are zeroing in on Corcoran as the actual mastermind behind an effort to obstruct their probe.

  8. The resident jingo disgracing herself again:

    “ Rather than listening to Hugh White, people should search out the interview with Paul Dibb on Radio National this morning. Eminently more rational and considered than Hugh ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction exist’ White. Chris Barrie is another Coalition shill. Ever wondered why they are getting so much exposure in the media since the election of Labor?”

  9. Griff the quote:

    “Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions” has often been attributed to Eliot but there’s no evidence that he spoke or wrote it.

    What he did however write in a play titled “The Rock” was this:

    ‘O Lord, deliver me from a man of excellent intention and impure heart: for the heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked.’

    And in her personal journal in ’45, Ayn Rand wrote something that comes close to what Eliot is presumed to have said:

    ‘In effect, fools say that all the problems, personal and political, can be solved by finding “men of good will.” But the “good” is never defined. And actually, most of the evil in this world is done by and through”good” intentions.’

  10. Scott,
    ~2000 cases just like what we heard today. They don’t give a fuck about people.
    Sociopaths the lot of them. The media is running silent on the robodebt RC. It’s a major scandal.

    Imagine if the government treated any other group like this. Even refugee’s get more coverage and a weekly protest in hobart.

  11. Unlike the anti-Labor stooges on here who will engage in leadershit no matter where Labor is in the polls. Which they have nothing to source with the exception of ‘I’ve heard but I cant say from who’……. I just can’t see a threat to Peter Dutton’s leadership at this point. Angus Taylor is cut from the same cloth as Dutton with not as much profile. Andrew Hastie would be an interesting option but then again he is relatively new getting a senior shadow frontbench position recently despite it being in opposition.

    I’m not predicting huge rumblings yet if a Liberal loss occurs in Aston. I know Nikki Savva wrote in her book Dutton blocked Labor’s 43% carbon emissions target from a leadership threat from Taylor. But the noise on the leadership front has been quiet. Unless Josh Frydenberg enters back into parliament it will likely stay that way for the time being because of a lack of alternatives for the Liberals.

  12. https://www.themandarin.com.au/212613-six-ways-defence-needs-to-lift-its-act/

    I fear the Defence Strategic Review, now in the hands of the prime minister and defence minister, will be a fizzle — not a flash and bang.

    There is no strategy without execution and I’m afraid the department does not engender confidence, other than militarily, in its abilities. It especially struggles in the areas of innovation and procurement.

    Defence resists change. These are not my words — read the 2015 First Principles Review (FPR) that highlights this resistance: “Defence’s lack of transparency, propensity for obfuscation and willingness to ‘game the system’ for its own advantage”. The FPR goes on to talk about the lack of trust in Defence as they play “the reform game, rather than delivering on intent …”

  13. Oh dear.

    As they demonstrated in Tibet, in China itself, and in Xingiang, and in the very wombs of Chinese women, the Chicommies will not apply the same ‘rules’ applied by Indonesia in Timor or by the US in Iraq or by the US in Vietnam, for that matter.

    Here are the rules.
    The chicommies are responsible for the abortions of 30 million female fetuses.
    They killed around 30 million bad Chinese during the Cultural Revolution.
    They will lock up a million or two as per the Uighers.
    They will kill a million or so, as per the Tibetans.

    The Chicommies have already made direct threats about who exactly they will murder when they take Taiwan. Quite naturally, this includes family members of their hate pin ups.

  14. Here we go. Straight from President Zelenskyy’s mouth:

    “Ukraine’s military is inflicting “extraordinarily significant” losses on Russian forces near the town of Vuhledar in the eastern Donbas region, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday in his nightly video address. Zelenskiy referred to several towns in Donbas, saying “the more losses Russia suffers there … in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Marinka, Kreminna – the faster we will be able to end this war with Ukraine’s victory”.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-362-of-the-invasion

    I do note his refraining from calling them ‘orcs’, so he should pass muster among the noun police here. He does seem to be ‘celebrating’ losses among those poor souls on the Russian lines, so I guess he needs to be re-educated quick-smart, lest he drive Western audiences into supporting Putin with his impolite language.

  15. #BREAKING: Australia captain Pat Cummins will rush home from India mid Test series to deal with a private family matter.

  16. Mother of a Robodebt victim rang Centrelink to tell them her son had died. Centrelink told her she would have to call Dun & Bradstreet herself https://t.co/VRKSG9dt8X— Ben Eltham (@beneltham) February 20, 2023

    The worst failure of public policy ever. This example tells how a government agency drove a young man to suicide and even after he died they couldn’t give a stuff. https://t.co/mE1TLxC3F2— Barrie Cassidy (@barriecassidy) February 20, 2023

    Just a terrible, terrible thing that has happened.

  17. “I do note his refraining from calling them ‘orcs’, so he should pass muster among the noun police here. He does seem to be ‘celebrating’ losses among those poor souls on the Russian lines, so I guess he needs to be re-educated quick-smart, lest he drive Western audiences into supporting Putin with his impolite language.”

    It is obviously a matter for intellect and heart, and clearly beyond your capability, but Zelenskiy is cleary on the right side of the line you don’t understand.

    They key is indifference to the suffering or indeed humanity of the victims, necessary victims included.

    It is not a hard line.

  18. Rex Douglas,
    no significant news on the ABC.
    They are treating every case like it’s own little story and not one gigantic fuckup of the LNP.

    I’m so angry at ‘aunty’ for looking away whilst this happened.

  19. nathsays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:05 am
    I’m not blaming the workers, but boy some suspicion and cynicism on their part might have saved them. As a very young man I remember being ordered to work in a room with similar environment to this. I flatly refused and they found someone else to do it. I may have risked being sacked but fuck them. I didn’t trust the arseholes.

    That’s the Joan of Arc/ Nelson Mandela coming out in you Nath, an heroic character, defender of the common man/woman, a beacon of light in a suspicious and cynical world.

  20. Oakeshott Country @ #2672 Monday, February 20th, 2023 – 11:54 am

    It must be that part of the decade again.

    This week we learn that people have lost money buying blocks of land in Walter Burley Griffiths North Arm Cove development
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-block-of-land-called-hope-the-fight-to-revive-walter-burley-griffin-s-lost-city-20230214-p5ckfp.html
    2.

    This has been the case since WBG lost his development bid 100 years ago – suckers thinking they have grabbed a bargain off-loading to other suckers from generation to generation

    Do journalists keep a stockpile of re-useable stories?

    The people who owned scheduled land around Riverstone eventually found a useful patsy in Barry O’Farrell who was desperate to win an election he had no hope of losing.
    When the inevitable flood washes through the housing estates along Richmond Rd, I hope the government of the day allows those people to sue BOF and the liberal party for allowing this to happen.

  21. Pat Cummins will fly home from India because of a family illness but is expected to return before the third Test starts in Indore next Wednesday.

  22. WeWantPaul @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 1:27 pm:

    “… Zelenskiy is cleary on the right side of the line …

    …They key is indifference to the suffering or indeed humanity of the victims, necessary victims included.”
    ==================

    WWP, good, we agree. It is necessary for the preservation of as much humanity as possible, with the least suffering possible, that Ukraine’s defenders eliminate as many Russian soldiers as quickly as possible. That is what matters. That is what President Zelenskyy is advocating for. That is what I support him in, 100%.

    I am not very disturbed at the thought that many here may think President Zelenskyy is much classier than me. I fully agree with them. What is intriguing is how many people here seem to think that is an important consideration.

  23. Witness said partners mother thought she was a dole cheat.
    Holmes: Did your partner’s mother apologise ?
    Witness: (after a pause and with a smile) No.

  24. Robodebt
    Felicity Button’s elliquent summary stands in strong contrast to Morrison’s disingenuous defence of his & the Governments actions in perpetrating the Robodebt tradgedy.

  25. Another ‘Groundhog Day’ instance of Russia’s military attacking whomever they like in Ukraine, civilian or military:

    “Three people were killed by shelling near the southern Ukrainian city of Berislav on Sunday morning, according to local officials. The regional military administration said Russian forces struck the village of Burgunka with “massive artillery fire” and that one of the shells hit the yard of a family home.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-362-of-the-invasion

    Three more innocent civilians who would be alive today in an intact family home, if those Russian soldiers were not there, but back home in Russia where they belong. Why won’t they just pack up and go home?

  26. Things are fraught with danger for Ukrainian forces endeavouring to hold back the Russian assault in Donetsk:

    “Ukrainian troops are preparing to defend one of the possible targets of a new Russian offensive in the eastern Donetsk region as Russia threatens to capture Bakhmut. Ukrainian soldiers near the small town of Siversk described being outgunned. “If they occupied Bakhmut, then we would be semi-encircled, because on the left side we have the Siverskyi Donets river, and the enemy will advance from the right, and it is possible to cut us off if they reach the Bakhmut highway,” said the deputy Siversk battalion commander.”

    Russia keeps throwing waves of human beings at volleys of Ukrainian ammunition, and soaking up that ammo at such a horrendous cost. Ukraine needs much more ammo from the West, as fast as humanly possible, to put everyone in this ghastly war out of their misery.

  27. Boerwar says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 12:17 pm
    ‘Cronus says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 12:11 pm
    …
    The question in the analysis not broadly canvassed is why hasn’t China attacked yet?
    ….’
    —————————
    It seems to me that fully commissioning and integrating the huge surge in naval builds will take another 7 or so years. I suspect that Putin did everyone a favour by reminding China that wars are unpredictable beasts.

    FWIW, the Global Times had for several weeks avoided the almost daily staple of improvements in PLA and PLAN arms and preparations.
    Today we are back to two such items.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/
    ———————————————————————————————

    Agreed, I too have noticed the belligerence waxing and waning. Although we should always be prepared, I think China is analysing what can happen when the outcome isn’t clearly beyond doubt.

  28. The EU is alert to Ukraine’s most pressing need – ammo, fast:

    “The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, said the war could be over “in weeks” if the EU cannot increase its supply of ammunition to Ukraine. “We are in urgent war mode,” he said. “This shortage of ammunition has to be solved quickly.” Borrell backed a call for the bloc’s members to buy arms jointly to help Ukraine but warned it would not solve Kyiv’s urgent need for more ammunition now.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-362-of-the-invasion

    The question is: how this can be achieved? Maybe ‘the West’ needs to be broadened out to include South Korea, which has ample stocks of suitable ammo. I hope approaches are being made to Seoul about this.

  29. Rex Douglas @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 2:08 pm:
    “Any further consideration about a dedicated Ukraine/Russia war thread …?”
    =============

    LOL Rex! You really don’t know how dedicated threads work on this blog, do you? If a thread is dedicated to subject X, it means we can only post on that thread about subject X. It does NOT mean we cannot post on an open thread about subject X. An ‘open thread’ means just that: any subject welcome.

    Think about it: we have had dedicated threads on state politics, including a couple put up since this open thread. Does the existence of dedicated threads on NSW politics and the Aston by-election right now mean that discussion of NSW politics and the Aston by-election is prohibited on this open thread? Of course not.

    Edit: BTW, I note you are on record as supporting to the hilt Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion, so thank you for that.

  30. WeWantPaul @ #2689 Monday, February 20th, 2023 – 1:27 pm

    It is obviously a matter for intellect and heart, and clearly beyond your capability, but Zelenskiy is cleary on the right side of the line you don’t understand.

    They key is indifference to the suffering or indeed humanity of the victims, necessary victims included.

    It is not a hard line.

    WWP Just a personal note. I find your ‘holier than thou’ posturing truly sickening.

    Just for me, can you explain how you find you are able to recognise the essential humanity of, for example, Gerald Ridsdale, or Idi Amin, or the evil members of the Russian unit that submitted the residents of Bucha, Ukraine to an organised, systematic orgy of slaughter and rape? Is it ‘faith’, or wilful ignorance, or just some particular personal characteristic that only really special people like you are privy to?

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha

    For myself, I have always found it very difficult to understand the mode of thinking of people who willingly enlist, or submit to conscription, with the clear knowledge that they will be trained to kill people, and be expected to do so, on the whim of people such as R G Menzies, L B Johnson, or John Howard. All for such ‘just’ ’causes’ as Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan, this despite the presumed humanity of the ‘necessary’ victims, to use your oh so heartfelt words . Your sincerity drips from the screen.

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