Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)

Liberal contenders jockey to succeed the late Jim Molan in the Senate and contest the forthcoming by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston.

We’re not likely to see anything on the polling front this week, but there is other electoral news to relate following recent parliamentary vacancies and party defections:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports preselection nominees to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy are likely to include Andrew Constance, former state minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore, and Fiona Scott, who held the lower house seat of Lindsay from 2013 to 2016, together with reported front-runner Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. Constance and Scott are associated with the moderation faction, while McInerney is a conservative. Mary-Lou Jarvis, lawyer and Woollahra councillor, has also written to senior party figures staking her claim as a qualified woman and the third candidate on the ticket at last year’s election, while also criticising the party’s apparent intention to leave the position vacant until after the state election on March 25.

• The Australian reports the Liberal hierarchy’s hopes of fielding a female candidate for the Aston by-election stand to be complicated by the entry into the field of Emanuele Cicchiello, who is rated a strong chance by sources close to eastern suburbs conservative powerbroker and Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, other unidentified sources, “including some with strong Right faction allegiances”, rubbished the notion. Cicchiello is deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College, a former mayor of Knox and contestant for the seat of Bruce in 2013 and numerous preselections since. All other noted contenders have been women with the exception of Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Alan Tudge, who has since ruled himself out. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the matter could be determined by a plebisicite of local members, which have lately proved resistant to female candidates, if the by-election is set for a date that allows sufficient time.

• Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation from the Greens last week marked the first change to party representation in parliament since the election, with the Senate numbers now at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one and two independents, namely Thorpe and David Pocock. This leaves the government needing two extra votes when the Greens are on board and the Coalition are not, where formerly it needed only one. Thorpe was elected to a six-year term at the election last May, which will extend to the middle of 2028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 thoughts on “Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)”

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  1. EA: “You’re really not getting the context.”

    There is no context that makes celebrating the mass death of people a positive thing.

    EA: ” I’d much rather people here thought me ‘creepy’ and ‘disgusting’”

    I suggest if you want people to have sympathy for your beliefs, you shouldn’t be a creepy nutter that celebrates the mass deaths of people. These are people FFS. They have fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, children, and friends.

  2. “Pi & WWP – I’d much rather people here thought me ‘creepy’ and ‘disgusting’ than that Putin get his wish and the grisly dimensions of his unjustified invasion get swept under a carpet of politeness.”

    I think we can safely file that under idiotic false dichotomy.

  3. Boerwar says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 9:13 am

    ‘Labor’s Super reforms, whatever they are, will not be good enough and we will delay them and block them until they are perfect.’
    #Greens-spokesperson.
    ____________

    I have 2 concerns with your analysis:
    1. The phrase “until they are perfect” is superfluous
    2. In what universe are the Greens interested in perfection? I would go with “Labor’s Super reforms, whatever they are, will not be good enough and we will delay them and block them to prove to our protest-oriented base that we’re doing what they sent us to Canberra to do.”

  4. I note the Tory shrill, Carney, in Costello’s rag, attempts to de-humanize Andrews, including that no one knows him and he is not loved.

    Carney should look into a mirror.

    Every day media have a Tory shrill attacking, behind a veneer of “independence”

    But then they publish a poll informing that the support for the ALP is improved from the election in November.

    No mention of the 2PP vote, which returns government and where the Tory vote at 30% has no fellow travelers to improve the 2PP – hence the landslide result.

    Then you get a headline from Brandis, described as a former High Commissioner to the UK and Attorney General – leaving out that he is an ex Tory MP which is how he came to the positions the Costello rag describes.

    Same with Campbell, another regular opinion contributor to the Costello rag, described as a City of Melbourne Councillor

    We need diversity of media ownership in Australia, which starts at Board and CEO level.

    And I have no problem with publishing opinion – but the political affiliations of the opinion contributor should be front and center, not hidden.

    And even the ABC needs audit starting with Board appointments (as with the RBA)

  5. Pi @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 9:34 am:

    “I suggest if you want people to have sympathy for your beliefs, you shouldn’t be a creepy nutter that celebrates the deaths of people.”
    ===============

    Pi, the antecedent of your conditional here is false. That is the problem with your critique of my messaging.

    BTW, I don’t celebrate the deaths of ‘people’, but only of hostile military personnel who are engaged in an conflict for the purpose of invading and occupying another country. The doctrine of self-defence makes the killing of the threats entirely justified. You’ve lapsed into straw man arguments, I’m afraid.

  6. Regarding silicosis, the danger is well known. A search for “silicosis 2019

    insert favourite news outlet

    ” will turn up a long running sore. Earlier years work too. Here’s a report from 2018 in the Brisbane Times.

    In November 2017, Mr White was diagnosed with silicosis after 10 years of working as a stonemason, dry-cutting the artificial stone. “Wearing protective gear wasn’t policed at any of my workplaces. There was so much dust flying around, you could feel the grit on your teeth and taste the dust in your mouth, but I didn’t think it was a problem,” Mr White said. “I had no idea it could make you this sick. I would personally like to see rules enforced so nobody cuts it dry in any workplace anywhere in Australia. It’s dangerous and it’s putting lives at risk.”

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/learn-from-asbestos-states-and-territories-urged-over-silicosis-risk-20180723-p4zt34.html

    There are many more.

  7. Here we go again says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 9:42 am

    I note the Tory shrill, Carney, in Costello’s rag, attempts to de-humanize Andrews, including that no one knows him and he is not loved.

    Carney should look into a mirror.

    Every day media have a Tory shrill attacking, behind a veneer of “independence”

    But then they publish a poll informing that the support for the ALP is improved from the election in November.

    No mention of the 2PP vote, which returns government and where the Tory vote at 30% has no fellow travelers to improve the 2PP – hence the landslide result.

    Then you get a headline from Brandis, described as a former High Commissioner to the UK and Attorney General – leaving out that he is an ex Tory MP which is how he came to the positions the Costello rag describes.

    Same with Campbell, another regular opinion contributor to the Costello rag, described as a City of Melbourne Councillor

    We need diversity of media ownership in Australia, which starts at Board and CEO level.

    And I have no problem with publishing opinion – but the political affiliations of the opinion contributor should be front and center, not hidden.

    And even the ABC needs audit starting with Board appointments (as with the RBA)
    ____________

    +1 – esp re ABC “audit”

  8. Late Riser says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 9:52 am

    Regarding silicosis, the danger is well known. A search for “silicosis 2019

    insert favourite news outlet

    ” will turn up a long running sore. Earlier years work too. Here’s a report from 2018 in the Brisbane Times.
    ___________
    The dangers were well known from at least the 90s. Governments did nothing until very recently when the cases started piling up.

    Another example of governing in response to media reports instead of taking responsibility when it counted.

  9. EA: “Pi, the antecedent of your conditional here is false”

    You should probably stop watching so much youtube. It looks like you’ve assaulted your senses to such an extent that, somewhere along the way, you’ve stopped recognizing what constitutes appropriate ways of referring to human beings. Or you wouldn’t be putting the word ‘people’ in quotes.

  10. I’m not blaming the workers, but boy some suspicion and cynicism on their part might have saved them. As a very young man I remember being ordered to work in a room with similar environment to this. I flatly refused and they found someone else to do it. I may have risked being sacked but fuck them. I didn’t trust the arseholes.

  11. “BTW, I don’t celebrate the deaths of ‘people’, but only of hostile military personnel who are engaged in an conflict for the purpose of invading and occupying another country. The doctrine of self-defence makes the killing of the threats entirely justified. You’ve lapsed into straw man arguments, I’m afraid.”

    Self own 11/10 no notes

    You should watch the hello future me video it shows just how dangerous ‘they aren’t really people’ argument is as the Japanese deployed exactly that to justify e experiments on humans. They called the ‘logs’ which is probably slightly worse than ‘hostile military personnel, but their complete indifference to humanity isn’t quite as bad as actively rejoicing in and enjoying human death.

    PS i haven’t fact checked Timothy, his research might be flawed or wrong or even fictional, but the point would stil stand.

  12. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 5:32 am
    The cricket Test may have finished early, but there’s plenty more gripping viewing to hold our attention through this week, and beyond.
    _____________________
    I am still in cricket mode. Have watched all the dismissals over and over again.
    Cummins easily the worst followed by Carey. Handscomb got a peach and not a lot more he could have done.

  13. “I’m not blaming the workers, but boy some suspicion and cynicism on their part might have saved them. As a very young man I remember being ordered to work in a room with similar environment to this. I flatly refused and they found someone else to do it. I may have risked being sacked but fuck them. I didn’t trust the arseholes.”

    You kind of are blaming them, and the willingness to get sacked is not a luxury all enjoy.

  14. Pi @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:01 am:

    “you’ve stopped recognizing what constitutes appropriate ways of referring to human beings.”
    =====================

    Like Poliphili and Griff on Saturday, you mean:

    “Griffsays:
    Saturday, February 18, 2023 at 7:40 pm
    Poliphili @ Saturday, February 18, 2023 at 7:31 pm
    “What is it about Lehrmann that requires another assault from the Murdoch orcs on the former Liberal staffer. What do they owe him?

    The evil Albrechtsen creature was of course an appointment to the ABC board during the reign of the rodent.”

    It may be the saying “It is not the crime, it is the coverup” has some relevance. We might be witnessing the coverup of the coverup ”
    ====================

    You may have missed it among all the back-and-forth, but it was this piece of hypocrisy on their part that got me going yesterday. Both had, in the past, castigated me for referring to Russian invaders and occupiers as ‘orcs’, and there they were! I note that nobody here had a word to say against them. I agree that Murdoch hacks are scum, but I think Russian invaders are worse scum. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. I’m not stopping.

  15. Sigh.

    Enough Already. I have already responded to you. To whit, you are arguing semantics, I am arguing values. It is not the word, it is the application of the word to humans that are being killed. Your exhortations to commit slaughter are the issue. I have no beef with Ukraine.

  16. https://legislation.nsw.gov.au/view/pdf/asmade/act-1920-13
    Hmm. To my untrained eye the Act is about paying compensation to workmen who can prove that they are incapacitated or dying or have died of silicosis because of work they did for an employer. There’s nothing about regulations, such as always cutting stone wet. Framed this way, people suffering and dying is a financial cost to the employer. Perhaps that’s still the mindset.

  17. WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:10 am
    “I’m not blaming the workers, but boy some suspicion and cynicism on their part might have saved them. As a very young man I remember being ordered to work in a room with similar environment to this. I flatly refused and they found someone else to do it. I may have risked being sacked but fuck them. I didn’t trust the arseholes.”

    You kind of are blaming them, and the willingness to get sacked is not a luxury all enjoy.

    My second son did a day at a local mushroom farm and because of the dust etc in the sheds never went back. The dust masks were below standard and he was dismayed at the managers attitude to the safety issues. Son is a strong character and wasn’t desperate for work so he walked…sad that many workers are not in that position.

  18. EA: “occupiers as ‘orcs’,”

    Still not celebrating the mass-death of people. Like you. Calling some people names, and celebrating the mass-death of people, are not the same thing.

    EA: ” I think Russian invaders are worse scum.”

    If you’re going to show yourself to be just as much of an animal as they are, you’re no different than they are. By your logic, we should be singing the praises of the Taliban, because they were invaded by the Russians just like the Ukrainians were. What really happened, is the invasion brought everyone down to the same level. And once you’re at that level, you’re no more trustworthy than the Russians are. We invaded Iraq. Does that make Islamic State the good guys?

    When you abandon your humanity, for whatever reason, no-one cares what justification you had for doing so. It’s like a child abuser thinking it’s ok because they were abused as a child.

  19. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 7:52 am
    This is the comment I submitted to Sean Kelly’s article:
    _____________________
    Here chook, chook, chook, chook.
    Just admit that they changed thier position pre election and post election. Although you probably already have to a degree with your ‘remain in power’ comment.

  20. Griff @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:17 am:

    “Sigh.

    Enough Already. I have already responded to you. To whit, you are arguing semantics, I am arguing values. It is not the word, it is the application of the word to humans that are being killed. Your exhortations to commit slaughter are the issue. I have no beef with Ukraine.”
    =============

    Griff, how do you propose Ukraine liberates its territory which is under Russian occupation and rescues their citizens who remain there from the genocide being inflicted upon them, given the ghastly “meat grinding” strategy Vladimir Putin has chosen to employ to retain his ill-gotten conquests?

  21. Dog’s Brunch says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:18 am

    My second son did a day at a local mushroom farm and because of the dust etc in the sheds never went back. The dust masks were below standard and he was dismayed at the managers attitude to the safety issues. Son is a strong character and wasn’t desperate for work so he walked…sad that many workers are not in that position.
    ____________
    There is also a culture in very masculine workplaces that dismisses safety and rewards smashing out work regardless of risks. Fortunately, I always take an antagonistic stance to any employment situation and fully expect them to put my life at risk for a few dollars.

  22. EA: “how do you propose Ukraine liberates its territory”

    The answer is not to become inhumane animals, or it makes no difference who lives there.

  23. Pi @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:20 am:
    ===================

    The longer this war goes, the more humans on all sides who will be sacrificed on the bonfire of Putin’s vanity. The imperative is to defeat Russia’s military forces in Ukraine ASAP. That is what minimises the human tragedy of this needless, unjustified hell Putin has unleashed upon Ukraine. Any Russian soldier who wants to can avoid being treated as a hostile aggressor by either surrendering to the Armed Forces of Ukraine or by deserting and fleeing elsewhere. Those who don’t – frankly, they’re not victims, they’re part of the problem.

    As for the longer term, it is obvious that Europe can only be safe from Russian aggression if Russia’s military power is significantly diminished. Again, ongoing peace in Europe requires the reduction of Russia’s military as much as possible. If they won’t do that willingly themselves, it must be done for them. Tragic, yes. I wish Russia had behaved differently towards Ukraine, as then they could perhaps be trusted to remain as armed as they have been. But, they chose a tragically different course.

  24. Taylormade says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:21 am
    ________________________

    It’s interesting. I have never once seen you post anything positive. You are relentlessly negative about Labor, but that’s unsurprising. What’s interesting – and tellingly typical of your side of politics – is that you never say anything about the Coalition. Clearly you can’t find anything positive to say and you cannot permit yourself to say anything negative.

  25. WeWantPaul says:

    You kind of are blaming them, and the willingness to get sacked is not a luxury all enjoy.
    ________
    I am certainly not blaming them. Just pointing out that it never pays to outsource your safety to bosses. Perhaps there should be classes on cynicism in high school.

    Every child should learn that when they become adults, a considerable number of other adults will happily kill them for a few dollars.

  26. Enough Already @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:22 am

    “Griff, how do you propose Ukraine liberates its territory which is under Russian occupation and rescues their citizens who remain there from the genocide being inflicted upon them, given the ghastly “meat grinding” strategy Vladimir Putin has chosen to employ to retain his ill-gotten conquests?”

    To repeat, I have no beef with Ukraine.

  27. Pi – you really think calling war criminals ‘orcs’ and wishing they either gave up or were dead, is just as bad as being a soldier under arms in a foreign country, and killing, raping, torturing and abducting the civilians they have forced themselves upon? That is a novel system of morality you have there.

  28. Taking a mask off in dusty conditions to have a smoke used to be common.

    The benchtop issue involves:

    (a) multiple suppliers of engineered stone providing no or inadequate warnings concerning dangers of silica exposure from working on the stone;
    (b) small employers, maybe without insurance and doubtful employment arrangements, using shared old and poorly ventilated facilities work with other stone masons and cutting dry.

  29. EA: “That is a novel system of morality you have there.”

    I’m not going to be accepting morality lessons from someone who celebrates the mass-death of people.

  30. Griff says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:06 am

    “Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions.”

    ― T.S. Eliot
    ____________

    Eliot is simply wrong: Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot…

  31. Griff @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:33 am:

    “To repeat, I have no beef with the Ukraine.”
    ============

    Excellent. Then you will have no beef with any actions the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to perform to rescue their people and their land from genocide? Including as killing as many Russian soldiers as Putin insists they have to?

  32. (b) small employers, maybe without insurance and doubtful employment arrangements, using shared old and poorly ventilated facilities work with other stone masons and cutting dry.
    ____________
    No doubt contracted by larger companies to avoid any repercussions coming their way. Outsourcing death basically.

  33. Pi @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:35 am:

    “I’m not going to be accepting morality lessons from someone who celebrates the mass-death of people.”
    ==============

    You still don’t get it. Given what Russian soldiers are doing in Ukraine, every one of them killed means more innocent Ukrainian lives saved. Ukrainians are people too, you know. My morality is one of supporting the course of action which will result in less human death and suffering, not more.

  34. Enough Already @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:35 am

    “Excellent. Then you will have no beef with any actions the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to perform to rescue their people and their land from genocide? Including as killing as many Russian soldiers as Putin insists they have to?”

    To repeat, I have no beef with Ukraine. Is three times enough? I suspect the confusion lies in that you think you are helping. We shall have to agree to disagree.

  35. Taylormade says:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:09 am

    Oliver Suttonsays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 5:32 am
    The cricket Test may have finished early, but there’s plenty more gripping viewing to hold our attention through this week, and beyond.
    _____________________
    I am still in cricket mode. Have watched all the dismissals over and over again.
    Cummins easily the worst followed by Carey. Handscomb got a peach and not a lot more he could have done.
    ____________

    When the Poms killed us in 78/79, we at least had the excuse it was our 3rd XI due to World Series Cricket…

  36. Pi

    So kill the Russians, but do it politely. Fair enough. The best way to see how Ukrainians aren’t losing their humanity is how they are treating Russian POW’s, which by all accounts have been to a high standard.

    But seriously, the quickest way to end the Ukrainian invasion by Russia is for Russia to leave. As they won’t leave by diplomatic means, then they have to be expelled by force. And that means killing as many soldiers as quickly as possible. Given what the Russian soldiers have done to Ukrainian civilians (rape, murder etc) I have long since lost any sympathy for their plight.

  37. YaramahZ: “The best way to see how Ukrainians aren’t losing their humanity is how they are treating Russian POW’s, which by all accounts have been to a high standard.”

    I agree. Some of the Ukrainian cheer-squad should perhaps reflect on why it’s important to have those distinctions. Keep the celebrations of death between the soldiers, or the war never ends.

  38. Griff @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:40 am:

    “Enough Already @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:35 am

    “Excellent. Then you will have no beef with any actions the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to perform to rescue their people and their land from genocide? Including as killing as many Russian soldiers as Putin insists they have to?”

    To repeat, I have no beef with Ukraine. Is three times enough?”
    =================

    You haven’t answered my question even once yet, let alone three times. My question now is: do you have a beef with Russian soldiers being under arms in Ukraine?

  39. YaramahZ @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:40 am:

    “Pi

    So kill the Russians, but do it politely. Fair enough. The best way to see how Ukrainians aren’t losing their humanity is how they are treating Russian POW’s, which by all accounts have been to a high standard.”
    ===============

    YaramahZ, thank you. That, at least, is something we can all agree with and celebrate whole-heartedly.

  40. nath @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:41 am
    “Griff, why do you have beef with Ukraine? Explain yourself.”

    I really am floundering here, aren’t I? 🙂

  41. Family event on Sunday in Aston. Ranging from a moderate Liberal, through to a Green supporter, religious nutters are not to be found in our circle of friends or relatives.

    Summary, outcome is not decided. Labor candidate is wrong for the electorate, but running her again is the cheapest option. It is an electorate of young ( from my point of view) professionals, both male and female.

    @frednk

    I fear you may be right here. While Labor’s choice of candidate for Aston is right for continuity after she contested the previous election. Labor gaining seats of Boothby, Bennelong, and Higgins last election were candidates that were professional career type (CEO, Doctor, Director etc). A union organiser may work fine in Melbourne or Cooper. But in Aston where it has conservative leanings it may not be the best fit. I hope I’m proven wrong and she wins though.

  42. ‘Washington: US intelligence suggests China is considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia, an involvement in the Kremlin’s war effort that would be a “serious problem,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

    Blinken said the United States long has been concerned that China would provide weapons to Russia. He pointed to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s promise to Russian President Vladimir Putin of a partnership with “no limits” when they met just weeks before Putin sent his troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Since then, ties between the two countries have only grown stronger.

    “We’ve been watching this very, very closely. And, for the most part, China has been engaged in providing rhetorical, political, diplomatic support to Russia, but we have information that gives us concern that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine,” Blinken said in an interview that aired on Sunday (US time), a day after his meeting at a security conference in Munich with Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official.

    “It was important for me to share very clearly with Wang Yi that this would be a serious problem,” Blinken said.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/serious-problem-us-warns-china-against-sending-weapons-to-russia-20230220-p5clss.html

  43. If it is true, as has been suggested, that China’s GDP has been negative for the last 2 quarters, then they may want to reconsider their imperialist ambitions. Especially as it concerns the ‘No Limits’ partnership with a dependent and failing Russia.

  44. Mavis @ Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:56 am

    This is the real risk. A proxy war between China and the USA would have difficulty in remaining contained.

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