Victorian election minus one week

Campaign chatter continues to point to a weaker result for Labor than published polling has thus far indicated, as the Victorian Electoral Commission increasingly finds itself drawn into the political fray.

Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:

• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.

• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.

• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.

• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.

• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.

• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

566 comments on “Victorian election minus one week”

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  3. By the corrupt media being quiet in releasing their weekly opinion polling during election campaigns.

    Suggest it will be a early call for a re-elected status quo Labor majority

  9. Greens openly talking about Pascoe Vale being in play. That means Footscray and Preston in play. Many on this site dismissed Greens claims at the Federal election about the three seats they won in Brisbane. Labor could lose six seats to the Greens alone. I now think minority Labor is favourite, slightly ahead of majority Labor. Fascinating election zoomer.

  10. That Lonergan upper house poll shows support for both Labor and Liberal is abysmal. Methinks voters will desert them in lower house also.

  11. Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:14 am
    Greens openly talking about Pascoe Vale being in play
    ————-
    While Kevin Bonham doesn’t go out on a limb and say Pascoe Vale is in play, his detailed analysis here suggests that it’s a closer ALP /GRN contest than betting markets suggest:

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

  12. Morning all. Thanks for the lead in article William. Quite apart from the question about sampling, the polls referred to all seem limited in the sense that they do not apply equally to all parties. There is discussion about how popular Andrews is, but not LOTO Matthew Guy. There is no reference point or comparison with past polls. So we are not told much about overall trend.

    If the Liberals had a credible poll showing they were on course to win, you would think they would release it.

  14. Jeremy @ #NaN Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 7:16 am

    That lonergsn upper house poll shows support for both Labor and Liberal is abysmal. Methinks voters will desert them in lower house also.

    Good to see you took up the advise from those numbskulls who pointed out to you your skirts were showing and that your real name was out there for all to see.
    No thanks required.

  15. max

    Yes, but even then he sees it as 54/46 (Labor’s way) at the least.

    He doesn’t seem to have factored in (or it’s too early in the morning for me to be reading things) a drop in the Liberal primaries, which (unless these go to the Greens) would presumably advantage Labor.

    As for Jeremy’s ‘Greens openly talking’ normally we’d have seen the Greens openly claiming that they’re a serious chance in at least ten seats. The lack of chatter is….fascinating….and suggests that either the Greens don’t think they are a serious chance in any seats or that they’ve learnt not to blow the trumpet too loudly.

  17. Grime says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:09 am

    Facing the prospect of a third term in power, Victoria’s premier worries about the rise of extremism and says his reform agenda is not over.
    —————————————
    The government is contributing to that by how they are enacting some of their social policies that benefit some groups but ignore others and that’s something Andrews should reflect on.

  18. ”
    Scottsays:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 6:59 am
    By the corrupt media being quiet in releasing their weekly opinion polling during election campaigns.

    Suggest it will be a early call for a re-elected status quo Labor majority
    ”

    What else can you expect from corrupt media!

  19. Ven says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:05 am


    What else can you expect from corrupt media!
    ——————————–
    Tears when the lib/nats remain in opposition , bigger tears if the lib/nats are the parties which loses a fair few seats

  20. ”
    Jeremysays:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:14 am
    Greens openly talking about Pascoe Vale being in play. That means Footscray and Preston in play. Many on this site dismissed Greens claims at the Federal election about the three seats they won in Brisbane. Labor could lose six seats to the Greens alone. I now think minority Labor is favourite, slightly ahead of majority Labor. Fascinating election zoomer.
    ”

    I will be keenly watching you on election night.

  21. Max, thanks for that link. One of the reasons l think Greens will do well in the inner city electorates is RENT. A high proportion of voters are educated, young and renters. These three factors will make Greens very competitive. Labor deserted renters in favour of developers. How much has rent increased last four years and the percentage of renters has increased in inner city. How angry are these young, educated renters?
    Pascoe Vale, Footscray, Preston. too close to call election night. Albert Park, Northcote, Richmond will be Greens gains.
    Fascinating election.

  22. Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:22 am

    Max, thanks for that link. One of the reasons l think Greens will do well in the inner city electorates is RENT. A high proportion of voters are educated, young and renters. These three factors will make Greens very competitive. Labor deserted renters in favour of developers. How much has rent increased last four years and the percentage of renters has increased. How angry are these young, educated renters?
    ———————————-
    Renters are already overwhelmingly Green and Labor has not deserted renters when renters have benefited from this government’s rental reforms.

  23. The herald/Sun circulation has fallen so far you don’t get to see them often. The time when you found heaps in site sheds has long gone.

    Was given one the other day. First impression, a thin publication, bit like a regional paper of years gone.

    But it was the cover to cover hate that got me.

    Credlen was going on about the cult of Dan. Bolt was complaining someone was too white. Pages and pages of anti labor bullshit.

    Given recent liberal ads clearly they believe what they read in the herald/Sun.

  24. somethinglikethat says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:58 am
    ———-
    Yes that AEForecasts model has actually moved (minimally) against the (already minimal) probability of a Liberal minority government – while the zero probability of a Liberal majority government has not changed either. There has been a very small movement against the high likelihood of a majority ALP government (previously over 90%) but still at a whopping 87.6%. These movements are small but in the absence of any recent polling I’m not sure which features of the forecast model are driving them.

    All wishcasting aside, of which there appears to be an abundance from party loyalists of various stripes, we should know in approximately 7 days, 12 hours how well the ALP, Liberals, Greens and cookers have actually fared. It might be weeks before we know what our latest batch of LC micro party representatives looks like, and which weird and wonderful political actors may have the leverage to get what they want as the price of making the State governable.

  25. In 2018 the media kept talking about unnamed sources and a narrowing, close election right up to election day and got caught with their pants down by the Danslide.

    Everybody around election campaigns talks a lot of shit and media reports it as fact.

    You want me to believe something about this election, show me the polls by reputable pollsters or it’s just someone’s anecdotal propaganda as far as I am concerned.

  26. November Opinion Polls for the Vic state election (2PP for the ALP)

    Least recent…………………………………………………………………………………………………….Most recent
    54% (Newspoll)…. 53.5% (RedBridge)….56% (Freshwater Strategies)…. 57% (Roy Morgan)

    How do you prefer your cooked Lobster: mayo, salt and pepper… what about a Lobster French onion chowder with Gruyère toasties for a change?

    🙂

  27. “Arky says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:55 am
    In 2018 the media kept talking about unnamed sources and a narrowing, close election right up to election day and got caught with their pants down by the Danslide.”…

    Yes, that was the Danslide for the Vic Coalition… Who knows, the 2022 election may become the Danmageddon for the Lobster and his mob?… Let’s never forget, not for nothing political-crustaceans, just like the real ones, have their skeleton on the outside; and in the case of the Liberal political-crustaceans they do so to hide what they have inside…. which is too ugly to show.

  28. Be careful people

    By very, very careful

    The so called Liberal Party sources its candidates from the IPA (Kew as an example) and Pentecostals (Eastern Region candidate as an example)

    Who wants the IPA and Pentecostal identities anywhere near the levers of government?

    So be very careful of these media promoted candidates

    And, to make matters worse, the IPA and the Pentecostals are in a fight for control of the Liberal Party (along with the old guard Cormack identities who remain)

  29. “The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying”… There is where my reading stopped. I mean, let’s poll this:
    a) How many people still read the Herald Sun?
    b) Even among those who read it because of the sports section, how many do also read the political articles?
    c) How many of those who do read the political articles believe the crap?

    Murdoch is squandering his fortune in a quest that has become completely hopeless, after the substantial De-Moronisation of the Victorian electorate that we have seen in recent years.

  31. Judging from the Liberal party media propaganda and their suggested preferences, it looks like the Greens have become their last hope to somewhat limit the solid win expected from Dan Andrews and the ALP….

    Liberals floating in the middle of the ocean, desperately hanging on a Green raft?…. Yeah, good luck Lobster, a category 5 political hurricane is coming, hold on your raft mate, it’s gonna be a very dangerous experience.

  32. The kind of person who does internal party leaking tends to be the kind of person that the internal party isn’t listening to.

    When a party has hundreds – if not thousands – of people campaigning, almost anyone can call themselves ‘someone involved in the campaign’.

  33. “The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election”…

    Ha, ha, ha…. because, of course, the VEC deliberately delaying their comments until after the election would not be “interference in the election”???… Dear me, the Liberals are truly developing a crustacean-size brain…. Hey, Lobster, how’s your “climbing” down the evolutionary tree going?

  34. “Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid””…..

    Is that Piastrino’s poor impersonation of Donald Trump?… C’mon Piastrino, when you lose just don’t admit it and instead tell a bunch of anti-lockdown Freedom Party thugs to go in the streets and smash some windows…. You may then thank them for their useless sacrifice when you visit them in jail…. You will go and visit them in jail, will you Piastrino?

  35. Loving this blog, watching Labor party luvvies going from extreme optimism a few weeks ago to now doubting that optimism. I’m no Nostradamus but l think 25th of November will see posters on this site in complete panic mode. How could the lobster bloke win??? Because Labor are a corrupt organisation who’s leader freezes out colleagues and makes deals to see Bernie Finn elected instead of a Green. In bed with Setka. Enjoy the last week of campaign everyone.
    Fascinating election.

  36. @Alpo

    Yes, I said that in the other thread too.

    Can you imagine how bad it would look if the VEC had hidden a scandal until AFTER the election? The screaming of cover-up would be far worse than this…

  37. “A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association”…

    Thanks William, interesting data.
    Primary votes:
    ALP…………………….42%
    Coalition…………….29%
    Greens………………..19%
    Other……………………11%

    Making the very conservative assumption that 80% of Greens voters will preference the ALP above the Coalition, and that 0% of the Others will do so, we have a 2PP for the ALP of 57.2%, which is very similar to the latest Roy Morgan result (57%).

    We are fast learning that there is more than one way of cooking a Lobster….

  38. The result will probably be closer to 53/54 than 57 just for the fact that this is a eight year old government and ageing governments lose support.

  39. “Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 9:52 am
    Loving this blog, watching Labor party luvvies going from extreme optimism a few weeks ago to now doubting that optimism. I’m no Nostradamus”….

    Yes Jeremy, you are not Nostradamus… He truly believed his crap, whereas in your case you know that what you write is crap, but you don’t care. Gimme Nostradamus any time!… 🙂

  40. “Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 10:05 am
    The result will probably be closer to 53/54 than 57 just for the fact that this is a eight year old government and ageing governments lose support.”

    It’s going to be fascinating to see how the “ageing government” effect will pan out. Yes, popular wisdom would suggest that the effect will bring the ALP 2PP down, although they will win the election anyway…. In just a week all will be revealed.

  41. As long as the lobster is dead.
    (I have actually consumed lobbie at The Lobster Cave in the same small room as Guyfox.)
    Anyway out the door long drive Ballarat Cup beckons.

  42. Jeremy @ #NaN Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    Loving this blog, watching Labor party luvvies going from extreme optimism a few weeks ago to now doubting that optimism. I’m no Nostradamus but l think 25th of November will see posters on this site in complete panic mode. How could the lobster bloke win??? Because Labor are a corrupt organisation who’s leader freezes out colleagues and makes deals to see Bernie Finn elected instead of a Green. In bed with Setka. Enjoy the last week of campaign everyone.
    Fascinating election.

    Echo!Echo!Echo!That’s Jer’s to a T.

  44. The real wash up from this election will be the fact that the Coalition was kicked out after a single term (Impossible says the Herald Sun,never happens…well maybe in Qland and maybe SA to coalition governments)
    Did the Libs learn anything from that?
    No of course not, let’s blame African gangs,so our numbers tumble.Did they learn anything?
    Nope same again let’s recycle leaders.
    Four years on and still nothing learnt in eight years of opposition,so lets refer everyone to IBAC,that’ll do the job.
    Honestly what ever way you look at it this Victorian opposition is a full blown disgrace and totally unworthy of holding Opposition effectively much less government .
    Don’t be surprised if there is major ructions proceeding the election.

  46. Rocket Rocket @ #NaN Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 10:45 am

    Alpo

    They should have held that ‘press conference’ outside this shop in Wheelers Hill, in the electorate of Mulgrave – “Four Seasons Supermarket”

    https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipOmOeIEKluK7Wj4H1NQmNFDqRwD9rA9O0BW8rSs=s680-w680-h510

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Four+Seasons+Supermarket/@-37.9354983,145.2046571,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOmOeIEKluK7Wj4H1NQmNFDqRwD9rA9O0BW8rSs!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOmOeIEKluK7Wj4H1NQmNFDqRwD9rA9O0BW8rSs%3Dw203-h114-k-no!7i2048!8i1152!4m18!1m9!3m8!1s0x6ad615c0bb7af733:0xd32cf53e2e10959!2sFour+Seasons+Supermarket!8m2!3d-37.9104662!4d145.1896622!14m1!1BCgIgARICEAE!16s%2Fg%2F11j0h8r8x_!3m7!1s0x6ad615c0bb7af733:0xd32cf53e2e10959!8m2!3d-37.9104662!4d145.1896622!14m1!1BCgIgAQ!16s%2Fg%2F11j0h8r8x_

    Hop in for your Lobster.

  48. Rocket Rocket says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 10:54 am

    Truly the greatest image of the 2020 US election – that ‘event’ said everything.
    _____
    Funniest shit ever. Four Seasons Total Landscaping.

  49. As an external observer, the VIC threads have been quite entertaining. A nice ratio of information and comedy. I can only hope future NSW election threads will offer similar fare. Thank you 🙂

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