Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)

Essential Research finds Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings as strong as ever, but perceptions of the national direction have taken a knock.

Without bursting out of the confines of the error margins, the monthly prime ministerial ratings featured in the fortnightly Essential Research poll give Anthony Albanese his highest approval rating to date, up two points to 60%. His disapproval is up one to 27%, which leaves him one point shy of his previous best net approval rating. However, an occasion question on the national direction finds a five-point increase since September for “wrong” to 34% and a two-point drop for “right” to 46%.

Once a lengthy explanatory spiel was out of the way, 50% expressed support and 27% opposition to the government’s multi-employer bargaining laws, and has further results supporting industrial relations policies that strengthen the hand of low-paid workers. The poll also finds 43% of the view that it is inappropriate for politicians to use Twitter, compared with 16% favouring the option that it is a “vital channel” for politicians and 41% for a middle course. The full report is here – the poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1035.

JWS Research has also released its occasional True Issues survey on issue salience, distinct from the one a fortnight ago that focused specifically on the budget. Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago. Housing and interest rates increased over the year from 10% to 19%, which environment and climate change was steady at 26% and hospitals, health and ageing fell eight points to 29%. The poll was conducted October 28 to 31 from a sample of 1000, and also features results on national direction and government performance in various policy fields.

Note that a dedicated thread for discussion of the Victorian election continues in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,788 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. Victoria says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:39 am

    Guytaur just crossed my mind. Whatever happened with him?
    ________
    Federal Parliament probably.

  2. UK Cartoons:
    Peter Brookes on Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement #JeremyHunt #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Ben Jennings on Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement #JeremyHunt #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Andy Davey: “Unprecedented headwinds” are causing us some trouble, apparently. Well, that and twelve years of #JeremyHunt and his band of clowns #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Dave Brown on #JeremyHunt #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Matt on #WorldCup2022 #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Brighty on #JeremyHunt #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

    Christian Adams on #JeremyHunt #AutumnStatement #Budget #Austerity #Cuts

  3. so jefreys dont know much abouth im he has not been one of there more effefctive leaders adam shiff or jamey rasgin who lead the jan 6 and impeachment inquiries would be a moreuseful choice but it seems after pilosie the democrats leading legeslator and congress spokesman will move from pilosie to chuck shummer in the senit as tthe main face of congress democrats

  4. ‘Right track’ polling numbers jump following GOP’s lackluster midterm showing

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/17/2136866/–Right-track-numbers-jump-after-voters-deal-major-blow-to-Republicans-midterm-hopes

    From the article:
    But perhaps even more telling is a bird’s-eye view of the right track/wrong track measure since the beginning of Donald Trump’s tenure. Wrong track views peaked three times over the past six years, and at least two of those occurrences were exclusively related to Trump and the GOP.

    72%, early July 2020, due to growing unrest following George Floyd’s murder
    72%, mid-January 2021, following Trump’s Jan. 6 insurrection
    79%, early July 2022, following the Supreme Court ruling on Dobbs

  5. Late Riser says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 8:58 am
    C@tmomma @ #31 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 7:43 am

    The AFR’s editorial uses the Pfitzer dispute to declare that pay rises without productivity improvements are a taste of things to come under the government’s IR bill.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/tug-dispute-a-taste-of-burke-s-workplace-law-20221115-p5byhf

    Because the productivity increases have come and the evidence is in that the wages have not risen commensurately.
    I’ve been busy and not observing, but (1) even I have picked up on the frame that there is a decade of pay rise catching up to do and blame to be recast. Also (2) perhaps CEO pay needs a bit more light. And of course (3), “They would say that.”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    The media has a choice as to whether to perpetuate these decades old myths (rinse and repeat on behalf of big business) or whether to undertake a proper analysis in the context of our new/different economic paradigm.

    A simple question to start with might be “how have these arguments worked out for workers, the economy and the nation over the past 30 years”?


  6. Cronussays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7:33 am
    Why AUKUS should really become JAUKUS
    “Forget the Quad or the G20 – if Japan were to join AUKUS it would create a geopolitical grouping with an outsized influence on the region over the next decade.”

    An interesting read suggesting that the informal be formalised. FWIW, I agree.

    Paywalled https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-aukus-should-really-become-jaukus-20221116-p5byqn

    Cronus
    Currently, AUKUS is a JOKUS or as Dr. D mentioned USUKA.

  7. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7:44 am
    “This is so emblematic of buzz kill journalism”

    Grattan is well passed due to be made into Soylent Green.

  8. Taylormade says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:18 am
    Essential
    “Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago”
    _____________________
    That’s a massive jump from a year ago.
    ——————————————————————————————
    Not hurting Albo’s rating one bit though, I guess the public are just a lot smarter under an honest and intelligent government.

  9. Cat

    “ New clues in the Nord Stream mystery
    According to US tech magazine Wired and satellite data monitoring company SpaceKnow, two “dark ships” about 95 to 130 meters long were said to have been in the area where the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions occurred just days before. The ships are referred to as dark because they are practically invisible.”

    These days all ships, like aircraft, have transponders to show their identity and location. When a ship turns off its transponder it may be said to be dark.

  10. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:02 am

    And in the BIG news of the day!

    Wimbledon will (slightly) relax its rules requiring all-white attire, allowing women to wear colored undershorts. (AP)

    That’s probably to make it easier to know when you’re purving at the players knickers.


  11. Jaegersays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7:57 am

    Jaeger post is blank. Is Jaeger in a shock because “The current top Democratic leaders — Pelosi, Hoyer, and Rep. James Clyburn — are 82, 83, and 82, respectively.”
    I am saying it because Jaeger blank post is just below HH post mentioning that. ( Joking).

    Sorry in advance if I offended you in anyway.

  12. Barney in Cherating @ #62 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 10:07 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:02 am

    And in the BIG news of the day!

    Wimbledon will (slightly) relax its rules requiring all-white attire, allowing women to wear colored undershorts. (AP)

    That’s probably to make it easier to know when you’re purving at the players knickers.

    Which one to purv at .. colour-coded. 🙂

  13. Socrates @ #61 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 10:02 am

    Cat

    “ New clues in the Nord Stream mystery
    According to US tech magazine Wired and satellite data monitoring company SpaceKnow, two “dark ships” about 95 to 130 meters long were said to have been in the area where the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions occurred just days before. The ships are referred to as dark because they are practically invisible.”

    These days all ships, like aircraft, have transponders to show their identity and location. When a ship turns off its transponder it may be said to be dark.

    .. Especially if they don’t want anyone to know they were there. Still, satellites are able to pick them up anyway and I think that’s where the information came from.

  14. Ven says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:58 am

    Cronussays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7:33 am
    Why AUKUS should really become JAUKUS
    “Forget the Quad or the G20 – if Japan were to join AUKUS it would create a geopolitical grouping with an outsized influence on the region over the next decade.”

    An interesting read suggesting that the informal be formalised. FWIW, I agree.

    Paywalled https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-aukus-should-really-become-jaukus-20221116-p5byqn

    Cronus
    Currently, AUKUS is a JOKUS or as Dr. D mentioned USUKA.
    ——————————————————————————————

    Agreed but I suspect we’re stuck with it so the addition of the Japanese would be a net benefit I think. Now of course the addition of South Korea and perhaps even a trustworthy India (not expecting that in my lifetime) would make for an even stronger, influential and capable formal grouping. I wonder if perhaps this might be Labor’s long term goal (just thinking out aloud)?

  15. Vale LeBeau (96 years old)

    Robert Clary, last surviving member of the ‘Hogan’s Heroes’ cast dies.
    The family was rounded up by the Nazis and sent to Buchenwald…
    “My mother said the most remarkable thing,” Clary told The Hollywood Reporter’s Peter Flax in late 2015. “She said, ‘Behave.’ She probably knew me as a brat. She said, ‘Behave. Do what they tell you to do.’”

    His parents were gassed that day.

    https://apple.news/AMxSsOtjvQUa0zqJDcdnFwQ

  16. Steve777says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:38 am

    “… name the most-likely first cross-bencher to join the Coalition by the end of 2025.”

    Dai Le.

    Lidia Thorpe

  17. Cronus @ #57 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    Late Riser says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 8:58 am
    C@tmomma @ #31 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 7:43 am

    The AFR’s editorial uses the Pfitzer dispute to declare that pay rises without productivity improvements are a taste of things to come under the government’s IR bill.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/tug-dispute-a-taste-of-burke-s-workplace-law-20221115-p5byhf

    Because the productivity increases have come and the evidence is in that the wages have not risen commensurately.
    I’ve been busy and not observing, but (1) even I have picked up on the frame that there is a decade of pay rise catching up to do and blame to be recast. Also (2) perhaps CEO pay needs a bit more light. And of course (3), “They would say that.”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    The media has a choice as to whether to perpetuate these decades old myths (rinse and repeat on behalf of big business) or whether to undertake a proper analysis in the context of our new/different economic paradigm.

    A simple question to start with might be “how have these arguments worked out for workers, the economy and the nation over the past 30 years”?

    Which is why so many people, especially of the younger generations, but us cluey oldies as well 🙂 have resorted to different sources for their news and views.

    Speaking of which, it was refreshing to see the first Gen Z Democrat elected to Congress in the Mid Terms. That’ll start to shake things up.

  18. Jaegersays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 10:13 am

    “Jaeger post is blank.”

    There was an image in it, but it may have fallen foul of an ad-block filter.

    I don’t think it likes it when you post just a link.

    Try adding some text.


  19. Jaegersays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 10:13 am
    “Jaeger post is blank.”

    There was an image in it, but it may have fallen foul of an ad-block filter.

    Jaeger
    You are one of the most thoughtful and intelligent PB posters.
    That is the reason I apologized in the post for my post. 🙂

  20. Nearly missed this

    Taylormade says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:18 am
    Essential
    “Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago”
    _____________________
    That’s a massive jump from a year ago.

    —————————————-
    LOL Taylormade

  21. This will be an interesting one to follow.

    The high court will re-examine whether Qantas unlawfully outsourced almost 1700 ground handlers, as the airline’s last-ditch attempt to avoid a potentially hefty compensation bill progresses.

    On Friday, high court justice Jacqueline Gleeson, Stephen Gageler and Jayne Jagot granted Qantas’ application for special leave to appeal the decision upheld by the federal court in relation to the 2020 outsourcing decision.

    The federal court had earlier ruled Qantas’s outsourcing of the workers was in part driven by a desire to avoid industrial action.

    The Guardian blog

  22. Steve777 @ #51 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 9:08 am

    “… name the most-likely first cross-bencher to join the Coalition by the end of 2025.”

    Dai Le.

    Most likely? Maybe. But is it likely? Does she have a dazzling career ahead of her in the Liberal Party? Is she more or less likely to get re-elected and get to 8 years in parliament as an independent or a Liberal noddy?

  23. Update – Adam Frisch trails loathsome Boebert by 556 votes in CO-03 ( The website is refreshed every 15 minutes.)

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/17/2136920/-Adam-Frisch-trails-Boebert-by-557-votes-in-CO-03#comment_84993520

    CNN

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/colorado/us-house-district-3

    Rocket Rocket
    If only 88% reporting from Pueblo, and Frisch now trails by 556, then some simple math. In Pueblo, Frisch leads by 4288 votes. Assuming the distribution doesn’t change (very unlikely, of course), then Frisch will gain 4288 *(12/88) = 584 votes. So he wins by 28. Yeah, I know it doesn’t quite work that way, different parts of Pueblo county are very different, but still……

  24. Scott @ #73 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 10:30 am

    Nearly missed this

    Taylormade says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:18 am
    Essential
    “Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago”
    _____________________
    That’s a massive jump from a year ago.

    —————————————-
    LOL Taylormade

    Yeah, who was the government whose policies, up until May this year, caused it?


  25. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7:57 am
    With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer announcing they’ll leave Democratic leadership in 2023 — although remain in Congress — the average age of Democrats’ expected top three leaders will drop by 31 years.

    Presumptive Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is 52, presumptive House Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts is 59, and presumptive Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California is 43.

    The current top Democratic leaders — Pelosi, Hoyer, and Rep. James Clyburn — are 82, 83, and 82, respectively.

    Almost as smooth as Kevin McCarthy becoming Speaker. 🙂

  26. Ven, well within automatic recount range. Not that a recount would result in much change. So the hope would be there are enough votes left to count and they strongly favour Frisch.

    Then again, Boebert doing her thing for the next 2 years in Congress isnt a bad thing for 2024.

  27. Barney in Cherating @ #69 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 10:16 am

    Steve777says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:38 am

    “… name the most-likely first cross-bencher to join the Coalition by the end of 2025.”

    Dai Le.

    Lidia Thorpe

    Could be she may be brought under the sway of Jacinta Price. Then Labor would need The Greens +2 to pass legislation in the Senate.

  28. Simon Katich @ #80 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 10:47 am

    Ven, well within automatic recount range. Not that a recount would result in much change. So the hope would be there are enough votes left to count and they strongly favour Frisch.

    Then again, Boebert doing her thing for the next 2 years in Congress isnt a bad thing for 2024.

    Lauren Boebert reminds me of the girl they chose to be cheerleader for the Republicans. Looks cute, can be programmed.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 10:44 am

    Yeah, who was the government whose policies, up until May this year, caused it?

    ——————————————–

    Luckily that government got voted out

  30. SK

    +1 for Dai Le, my thoughts exactly.

    Smart women with backgrounds that could be best described as being ‘life’s winners’ are going to struggle voting for laws that attempt to equalise the power imbalance in industrial relations.

  31. Taylormade says:
    Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:18 am

    Essential
    “Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago”
    _____________________
    That’s a massive jump from a year ago.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade – Unlike Guys’Polls numbers.

  32. The federal court had earlier ruled Qantas’s outsourcing of the workers was in part driven by a desire to avoid industrial action.

    But of course mainly about ‘cheap’ labour. Alan Joyce’s fat bonuses gotta come from somewhere ya know.

  33. @ C@tmomma, Scott
    Yep.
    Poor old Taylormade.
    Makes a comment inferring the 7mth old Government is to blame for the rise in anxiety over cost-of-living.
    Just can’t get it right.
    Unwittingly sets up his beloved Coalition Party as a target and then gives his critics the ammunition to shoot at it.
    Anybody, except the most one-eyed Liberal supporter, would understand that the issues facing the people of this nation did not appear overnight. Sure, the Ukraine conflict has dramatically impacted the issues, and the flooding issues are compounding them as well. But to infer that the dramatic jump in concern is caused by a new Government is farcical .
    One would think he should know better by now. But he seems willing enough to generate derision amongst the better informed PB cohort by writing comments more worthy of the Telegraph, the Herald-Sun and the Courier Mail readership.
    Taylormade is his own worst enemy.

  34. Poroti

    Great comment from Burke at press club other day. Said nobody knows ways of cutting wages better than qantas.

    It must be awful working in an organisation where you know the management hates you.

  35. Steve777@9.38
    Dai Le would have been my first choice & thought, too.
    However, as the stipulation was “At the end of 2025”, I believe that we will both be in error.
    If she jumps ship and dons a true blue LNP skirt to replace her Hanson-style Ao Do it will be prior to the 2025 election.
    She won’t survive the May, 2025 election if she re-contests as a psuedo independent and if The ALP gets its act together and preselects a candidate with a real connection to the Electorate of Fowler.

  36. “ Why AUKUS should really become JAUKUS”

    _____

    Why stop there Cronus?

    We really should be talking about a strategic alliance (hopefully evolving to something equivalent to NATO) that has at least the following founding members:

    Australia, Singapore, France, South Korea, Japan, America (perhaps we could call it something like the O6 [original six/organisation of 6] with invites (either as associate membership, observer status – or if they want in, full membership) extended to Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, NZ, Canada and the various micro PI nations.

    If the UK want to shop their military wares, then fine, but let’s not kid ourselves that would ever have a genuine commitment to security in the region: not after they cut n’ run in 1942 and again in the 1950s.

  37. Anybody, except the most one-eyed Liberal supporter, would understand that the issues facing the people of this nation did not appear overnight.

    Gettysburg1863,
    It’s because Liberals, Nationals and their fanbois and boosters think that us out here live with the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind that can just be imprinted anew every day with their chosen hot bad take of the day. Hence, the function and purpose of the SAD crew on Sky, 2GB and their affiliates and congeners and the internet and hard copy news media. They all spend, all day, every day, co-ordinating their talking points with each other and the Coalition and then the rest of the day, pumping out the bilge water and mental sewerage into the minds of the gullible who refuse to think hard enough about the reality.

    Slowly people are being pulled out of that miasma as they realise what’s attempting to be done to them on behalf of the bad actors in our society. I just hope it continues and that the bad actors don’t simply employ new modalities of effective brainwashing.

  38. Rossmcg @ #91 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 11:35 am

    Poroti

    Great comment from Burke at press club other day. Said nobody knows ways of cutting wages better than qantas.

    It must be awful working in an organisation where you know the management hates you.

    My brother used to work for Qantas as a baggage handler. He left to become a handyman at a Child Care Centre. Much happier. 🙂

  39. Rossmcg at 11:35 am

    Great comment from Burke at press club other day. Said nobody knows ways of cutting wages better than qantas.

    Thanks, very good to hear someone in the government being as blunt as that about Qantas .

    Qantas board gets priorities straight – its own pay – as Alan Joyce edges towards $8.7m package

    They socialised the losses – and now they are about to privatise the profits. …….Qantas board has gifted itself a collective 5% pay rise of a collective $2.4 million………………….This has added insult to the injury of tens of thousands of its customers,………….. and to workers being offered a pay rise of 6% over five years (1.2% each year).

    https://michaelwest.com.au/qantas-alan-joyce-edges-towards-8-7m-package/

  40. Let’s be thankful that QANTAS was sold off. It is the shareholders and the dupes who fly with that cruddy airline who pay the Irishman’s exorbitant salary, otherwise it would be the community.

  41. The Morrison govt claimed to be trying to fix the HC in the same way the US Supreme Court was fixed.

    It will be interesting to who and how they decide this for Qantas, if indeed that is what they do.

  42. Andrew_Earlwood says:

    If the UK want to shop their military wares, then fine, but let’s not kid ourselves that would ever have a genuine commitment to security in the region: not after they cut n’ run in 1942
    _________
    Bloody Poms. Refusing to send their forces to the Far East to reassure a few million hysterical Australians screeching about the Japanese a few thousand miles away from Sydney.

    I guess they had a bit going on at the time.

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