Home alone (open thread)

New research suggests home ownership together with age were the distinguishing cleavages of the recent federal election, plus post-election blame games on both sides of politics.

There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:

• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.

• The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.

• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.

• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.

• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.

• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

994 comments on “Home alone (open thread)”

Comments Page 19 of 20
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  1. p
    There is no watertight. Shoebridge is faking it. No future Coalition government is constrained by a current Government.

  2. Maybi wa based bloogers can help but do not understand whiy Collier and guiran still run wa liberal partys there basickly liberals vertion of facelis men along with hawke seem to behind leaking against david huney to the west australian for months to find aulturnative even langer was floated after the near distraction of wa libs at both state and federal the right wants hawke gone but the clan can continue to run wa any way

  3. AFter the leaks in the news papperssome old mps were claiming they backt reform and wanted collier and guiran gone and when thay duda a friend of corman quit the clanpower would end but another clan member richard willson replaced her the faction can over see the distraction of the party at state and federal level labor winning 4 seats and dutton comes to perth for fund raizers withas if the party is not bad however desbite cormanns role in clan he seemed to be one of the moore respected members of the former liberals federaly

  4. poroti @ #857 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 3:37 pm

    Boerwar at 2:40 pm
    Sure they moan a lot but IF the protection of whistle blowers is deficient then it damned well does need someone to make a fuss. Given the Coalition’s ocd when it comes to ignoring intentions and conventions then we need to make sure it is water tight. As to the sufficiency or deficiency of what is currently proposed I am Sgt. Shultz

    Labor should avoid wasting time and immediately adopt these most sensible amendments and just get on with other business.

  5. Ven says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 2:26 pm
    ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 12:40 pm
    Ven says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 12:03 pm
    ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:48 am
    If as it seems Johnson’s motivation to stay on until October is to exact revenge on those who’ve ousted him, the Tories have a way out: vote with Labour in a no-confidence motion.
    ”

    [‘Mavis
    Let us say Tories will do as you propose. Do you know Then what happens? That was the question I asked last night.’]

    The prospective leader would visit the Queen informing her that he or she could form a majority government. As I said recently if Johnson fell under a bus, a new PM would be installed asap. Johnson has no substantive reason to stay in the job until October. And due to the Tory’s majority, Labour’s not in the running.
    ”
    [‘Mavis
    What prospective leader? Currently there is no leader available other than BOJO from Tory side. Hence, who will go to the Queen asking to be installed as PM?’]

    A leader would emerge within indecent haste if Johnson fell or was pushed under the proverbial bus or became incapacitated. If the Tory Party wants to have him replaced now, which appears to be the case, his deputy Dominic Raab could step up, among a number of other front runners. It ain’t that difficult even if rules governing leadship contests are suspended or revamped by the 1922 Committee.* And it should be done before the summer recess of Parliament – 21 July 2022 lest he’ll attempt to further wreck his party Trumpian style.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-contest-explained-how-election-work-when-next-conservative-leader-announced-1732927

  6. Greens proposals for the ICAC are good and consistent with the other members of the crossbench.

    Whilst even I have been dismayed by Bandt’s rhetoric I am pleased to see that the Green as a whole are negotiating in good faith on the ICAC. Particularly impressed with Shoebridge.

    The ball is the ALP’s court.

  7. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 3:58 pm

    p
    There is no watertight. Shoebridge is faking it. No future Coalition government is constrained by a current Government.

    So why do anything?

  8. Rex,

    Stop getting excited.

    There is no legislation to amend.

    Labor is consulting with the crossbenchers to determine what the legislation will be.

  9. Boerwar
    I’d suggest even a Coalition government may hesitate to alter the legislation once in place . Teh Public seem rather attached to the notion of a FICAC with Fangs.

  11. Barney at 4.58

    …Labor is consulting with the crossbenchers to determine what the legislation will be.
    ____________

    I’ll translate that into Rex-speak for you…

    “The Cross-Bench govt is telling Labor how they will vote on absolutely everything.”

  12. From other thread
    ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, July 8, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has emerged as the new favourite to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    According to Sky Bet, Mr Wallace is at the top, his odds shortening from 6/1 just 24 hours ago.

    He is followed by Rishi Sunak and Tom Tugendhat – whose odds have halved from 12/1 since yesterday.

    These are the latest odds for the next Tory leader:

    Ben Wallace – 5/2

    Rishi Sunak – 4/1

    Tom Tugendhat – 6/1

    Penny Mordaunt – 13/2

    Liz Truss – 10/1

    Sajid Javid – 11/1

    Jeremy Hunt – 14/1

    Nadhim Zahawi – 14/1

    Steve Baker – 18/1

    Michael Gove – 25/1
    ”

    Ben Wallace ruled out contesting for leadership. 🙂

  13. Trump is struggling for relevance, if this is true. (We’re discussing the former POTUS after all.)

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/09/donald-trump-steve-bannon-executive-privilege-reports

    Trump considers waiving Bannon’s executive privilege claim, reports say

    Decision from former president would clear way for one-time adviser to testify before committee investigating Capitol attack

    The point being, that Bannon has no executive privilege cover for his criminal contempt of congress charge, and as is noted in the article Bannon had left the WH for the time period the J6C is interested in. Bannon has no J6 cover and is already in the doo doo. So if the report is accurate, this isn’t about already-in-trouble Bannon, this is about Trump.

  14. Barney in Cherating says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    ‘Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 3:58 pm

    p
    There is no watertight. Shoebridge is faking it. No future Coalition government is constrained by a current Government.

    So why do anything?’
    ———————-
    The actual question is how to stay in power for long enough for reforms to stick.

  15. Ben Wallace is fat and bald – hence a diverse choice in the modern political world.

    Although in regality Trump is also fat and bald.

  16. The real reason for Brexit is evident in this front page. It’s to get and keep power. Rees-Mogg wants his.

  18. Ben Wallace V Tom Tughenhadt for mine. With Ben Wallace coming out on top and Tom Tughenhadt being his Deputy and Defence Minister.

  22. “For these people, new oral antiviral treatments help keep people out of hospital, reducing the pressure on our health system, and can save lives,” he said.

    “We already have about a quarter of a million people today with COVID, officially, and probably tens of thousands not having reported it. There’s 4000 people in hospital with COVID and a few hundred deaths every week from COVID. So this is very serious.”

    He said the former government ordered 1.3 million doses of the antiviral treatments, “but they’ve been sitting in warehouses rather than getting into people actually doing their job, which is why we made this decision [to expand eligibility]” .

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/access-to-covid-19-anti-viral-medication-expanded-20220710-p5b0ga.html

    It’s almost criminal really when you consider the previous govt could’ve just expanded eligibility and saved however many lives.

  23. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to become a father again, according to reports.

    The 69-year-old is said to be expecting a daughter with his ex-gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva, 39, with whom he is alleged to have fathered two children with in recent years.

    Putin will be welcoming a girl, according to the General SVR Telegram channel – an internet account said to be updated by Kremlin insiders.

  25. Late Riser
    You actually got up earlier with a beautiful nightfall poem and now an early edition of a 2 pound Pommy paper claiming inter alia that a member of the monarchy powers the sun on a salmon stillness Sunday.
    Wonderful.

  26. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:25 pm
    Ben Wallace V Tom Tughenhadt for mine. With Ben Wallace coming out on top and Tom Tughenhadt being his Deputy and Defence Minister.
    ”

    Ben Wallace rules himself out of the Tory leadership contest

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/09/ben-wallace-rules-himself-out-tory-leadership-race?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16574420220057&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2Fjul%2F09%2Fben-wallace-rules-himself-out-tory-leadership-race

  29. Australia’s Catholic bishops have agreed to work to elevate the status of women in the Church – including by potentially serving in the ministry as deacons – after a major gathering plunged into chaos over the issue last week.

    The schedule for the church’s fifth plenary council, a powerful policymaking event, was suspended after two motions affirming women’s role in the Church failed to pass, prompting about 60 participants to stage a silent protest.

    Catholic leaders acknowledged the failure to pass the motions had damaged the Church’s reputation, creating the impression its leadership was indifferent to the concerns of female churchgoers.

    After the motions were slightly redrafted, the plenary council voted overwhelmingly that each Catholic diocese in Australia should commit to creating “new opportunities for women to participate in ministries that engage with the most important aspects of diocesan and parish life”.

    The participants – including 37 of 43 bishops – supported a motion saying the Church would examine how to best allow women to serve as deacons if such a move is approved by the Vatican.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-bishops-backflip-on-status-of-women-in-church-giving-hope-to-reformers-20220710-p5b0hh.html

    So…. giving the appearance of progressing women’s equality while simultaneously entrenching the status quo by doing nothing.

  30. I can’t see how truth in political advertising could be regulated in oz unless it was done by either the AEC or a regulatory body effectively identical to it. The AEC took the politics out of seat distribution and boundaries in oz. I’d hope for a similar outcome. Is it a bigger one to resolve? I’m not sure. They are related, after all.

  31. Given his unflinching loyalty to Johnson, I’m shocked that dear Rees-Mogg is not on the list of leadership pretenders (sic). And there are almost as many starters in the Tory leadership contest as there are horses competing in the Grand National.

  33. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    [‘And Nick Kyrgios to beat Novak Djokovic. ‘]

    Seconded. If his serve’s working, he should win.

  34. Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:50 pm
    C@tmomma:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    [‘And Nick Kyrgios to beat Novak Djokovic. ‘]

    Seconded. If his serve’s working, he should win.
    ———————————
    How stuffed is this planet and society!

  35. Holdenhillbilly @ #923 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 6:31 pm

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to become a father again, according to reports.

    The 69-year-old is said to be expecting a daughter with his ex-gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva, 39, with whom he is alleged to have fathered two children with in recent years.

    Putin will be welcoming a girl, according to the General SVR Telegram channel – an internet account said to be updated by Kremlin insiders.

    Another girl. Hmm. I could make a connection with Charlie Chaplin, who was also fathering children at that age, and his film ‘The Little Dictator’. But I won’t. 😉

  36. Dr John:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:50 pm
    C@tmomma:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    [‘And Nick Kyrgios to beat Novak Djokovic. ‘]

    Seconded. If his serve’s working, he should win.
    ———————————
    [‘How stuffed is this planet and society!’]

    Circus Maximus? That said, I’m a tennis nut & also an optimist.

  37. shoebr that he will not to apeel to his members shoe bridge did the same in nsw but had a good record of working with the other cros benchersidge may be more modderit then bandt think bandt is saying he won

  41. [‘So, it’s time to give Nick Kyrgios some overdue credit. He’s got himself in pretty good shape, he made the correct decision not to play the doubles with close friend Thanasi Kokkinakis, albeit for the wrong reason (he didn’t know it was best-of-five sets), and, for me, the big one: He has worked on, and improved, his game, especially his backhand. His reward is a Wimbledon men’s singles final, a long 19 years since another Greek Australian, Mark Philippoussis, did so.

    Kyrgios now has more weapons than any other player on grass. He can beat anyone and, true, he can lose to anyone, but, like Nadal on clay, I will not be picking against Kyrgios in the Wimbledon final.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/nick-s-game-changing-weapon-why-i-m-backing-kyrgios-to-beat-djokovic-20220709-p5b0cr.html

    After watching the men’s doubles final this morning, which went for four hours, I’ve set my alarm for 2300 hours.

  42. Mavis says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 7:41 pm
    After watching the men’s doubles final this morning, which went for four hours, I’ve set my alarm for 2300 hours.
    —————————————–
    As an aside do you also aspire to Barry Humphries?
    I know a guy who was his best mate. I know plenty of horrible Humphries especially when he was on the piss.

  43. With Boris Johnson hoping to continue as caretaker prime minister for the next few months, Keir Starmer delivered a stern warning that this would not be acceptable for Labour and promised to call a vote of no confidence if Johnson continues to cling on.

    Now new YouGov data suggests that half of Britons (53%) would support Starmer in calling a no-confidence vote should Johnson refuse to stand down immediately. Only a third (32%) are opposed.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/08/53-32-britons-would-back-labour-calling-vote-no-co

  44. Dr John:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 7:55 pm

    [‘As an aside do you also aspire to Barry Humphries’]

    Oh, FFS, stop it!

    [‘I know a guy who was his best mate. I know plenty of horrible Humphries especially when he was on the piss.’]

    Oh, FFS, stop it.

  45. Albo kicking it over the grandstand on Ch7 Spotlight puff piece tonight. Watch the replay if you’ve missed it – with a cameo of PJK

  46. Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:08 pm
    Oh, FFS, stop it.
    ————————-
    OK I’ll go easy on your tennis balls

  47. sprocket_
    Mrs BK and I have been watching the Ch7 Albo interview.
    Very impressive, both Albo and his relaxed partner.
    No BS. No big noting. Very serious, but personable.
    Albo is really growing into the job.

  48. As an observation, “The Sunday Age” publishes a weekly opinion piece by a female City of Melbourne Counsellor who, if you go to the foot of the articles, is a Liberal Party member (so no surprise given who Chairs 9 Entertainment)

    So is there a move to repeat Newman in Queensland?

    Noting the former MP for Hawthorn no longer contributes (as a leader not in the parliament)

    The articles promote who and what they promote (and no surprise there)

    There appears no invitation to anyone from the other side of politics to use the paper to promote them and their Party (noting the likes of Maley and Gittens are independent unlike the rest of the stable of “journalists”) which is no surprise

    In regards Russia, it has a population of 150 Million – so 6 times the population of Australia and less than half the population of the USA

    And China has over 1.4 Billion – so near enough 10 times the population of Russia

    So that is where “people power” is

    I was last in Russia for the Olympics, and last in China a few years back (pre Covid and pre Turnbull’s embargoes then Morrison’s commentary) with an Australian citizen who conducts business in China (and owns residential and business property there)

    The populations – or at least those I associated with – seemed pretty happy to me (and fine hosts) and there appeared to be no agitation in regards government

    People were just getting on with their lives – noting Sri Lanka and the reasons for certain of their 20 million population being on the streets

    As we do in Australia

    I would add that in regards Brexit, the unscrambling of the egg after so many years was always going to be, at the very best, problematic in the extreme

    There is always consequence

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