Home alone (open thread)

New research suggests home ownership together with age were the distinguishing cleavages of the recent federal election, plus post-election blame games on both sides of politics.

There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:

• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.

The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.

Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.

• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.

• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.

• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

994 comments on “Home alone (open thread)”

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  1. Re alfred venison at 6.25 pm

    In what sense is that British military institute report objective? If the objective is to boost the stocks of the military-industrial complex in the West, the main beneficiaries of the war, yes, it does that.

    In the conclusion the author claims: “The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition”. He gives no evidence to confirm China has been providing Russia with military materiel. The Ukrainians have publicised no evidence of this.

    The relationship between Russia and China is complex. A recent, thorough analysis suggests China is trying to limit “the risks of it being drawn into the conflict on Russia’s side”. See:

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/turning-point-putin-xi-and-russian-invasion-ukraine#sec46621

    A briefer analysis includes this conclusion:

    ‘A partial weakening of Russia as a result of the war and Western sanctions is something China is ready to accept, as this would make Russia more dependent on China and eastern markets, enabling Beijing to bind Russia as a “resource asset” and expand China’s presence in the Russian market in key industrial and economic sectors.’ See:

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/chinas-strategic-calculations-russia-ukraine-war

  2. Così fan tutte, ossia La scuola degli amanti[a] (All Women Do It, or The School for Lovers), K. 588, is an opera buffa in two acts by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. It was first performed on 26 January 1790 at the Burgtheater in Vienna, Austria. The libretto was written by Lorenzo Da Ponte who also wrote Le nozze di Figaro and Don Giovanni.

    January 26, 1790 would certainly have been one of the great moments in music, ranking about equally with 1 May 1786.


    The Marriage of Figaro
    Opera by W. A. Mozart
    Premiere 1 May 1786
    Burgtheater, Vienna

    The Marriage of Figaro (Italian: Le nozze di Figaro, pronounced [le ˈnɔttse di ˈfiːɡaro] (listen)), K. 492, is a commedia per musica (opera buffa) in four acts composed in 1786 by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, with an Italian libretto written by Lorenzo Da Ponte. It premiered at the Burgtheater in Vienna on 1 May 1786.

    13 January 1910 was noteworthy too:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TITQStmDfTc

    This enabled the broadcasting of performances by this tenor:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCC9vrpJq5A

  3. What’s an objective concept; perhaps the retrograde motion of planets? Everything’s a mixture of science and personal experience. Science does well but can’t account for the human condition (I’m trying to stay awake for the final).

  4. Mavis says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    What’s an objective concept; perhaps the retrograde motion of planets? Everything’s a mixture of science and personal experience. Science does well but can’t account for the human condition (I’m trying to stay awake for the final).
    ————————————————-
    Like attempting to throw previous wife out of a moving car for example?

  5. Bad news about Michael Klim. It’s a tough gig trying to carry on when you have been so fit and active for most of your life. Though not an Olympian, I did get as far as State Athletics and School Open Athletics Champion, plus be in a national champion team in my chosen team sport, as well as being supremely fit into my 50s, only to have it all disintegrate after menopause and the onset of osteoarthritis. It’s hard to mentally adjust, for example, when I could no longer ride a push bike, bushwalk or rock climb, I just felt like an animated lump, but you have to mentally adjust and be appreciative of the fact that you’re still compos mentis and happy to just be alive.

  6. Anyone have a link to replay the Channel 7 piece on Albo? Could only find a preview on the Channel 7 YouTube channel.

  7. Dr John:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:19 pm

    Mavis says:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:10 pm

    What’s an objective concept; perhaps the retrograde motion of planets? Everything’s a mixture of science and personal experience. Science does well but can’t account for the human condition (I’m trying to stay awake for the final).
    ————————————————-
    [‘Like attempting to throw previous wife out of a moving car for example?’]

    May I ask you a very personal question? I will anyway. In which discipline have you been conferred a doctorate? You remind me of dear GG – no offence? In point of fact, I miss him – such a stirrer.

  8. Mavis
    You have already offended me.
    GG vehemently defended Catholic child sex abuse including Pell.
    I shall basically remain anonymous apart from many life experiences and contacts.
    Enjoy the tennas.

  9. ” Anyone think there could be an Australian Federal Election prior to 2025?”

    If the Government is doing well in the polls in the second half of 2024 I would expect the election in October-November of that year. The early election speculation will start as the political year 2024 gets going after the Christmas break.

    If the Senate proves obstructive, things will get more complicated, with speculation of a double dissolution starting next year. The Coalition will oppose everything, of course, so that’s mostly down to the Greens.

  10. Not that any polling/political news until six months before the election actually matters… I don’t expect a poll
    for another fortnight to align with the Opening of the new Parliament.

  11. Dr John:

    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 10:02 pm

    Mavis

    [‘GG vehemently defended Catholic child sex abuse including Pell.’]

    Wrong! I challenge you to find a post of his where he defended Catholic child sex abuse. Yes, he did defend Pell but the HC, in a unanimous decision, found in his (Pell’s) favour. Please stop verbalising former(?) posters.

  12. Mavis,
    Science is a constructed philosophy, designed to answer questions. As in all things the trick is to ask good questions. And if I may borrow your signature this one time, since you have no need of it tonight, Pepys.
    Enjoy your tennis.

  13. Dr Doolittle

    “Re alfred venison at 6.25 pm

    In what sense is that British military institute report objective? If the objective is to boost the stocks of the military-industrial complex in the West, the main beneficiaries of the war, yes, it does that.”

    I agree some of the calcs and assumptions in the RUSI report are over the top. RUSI is the Royal United Servicemen’s Institute, so it is part British military union and part lobbyist.

    And I agree China will stay at arms length from Russia’s war in Ukraine. No gain for China.

    That being said, I think there is an underlying issue that is real. Not so much for the Army in an Australian context, but for our Air Force and Navy. We tend to buy nowhere near enough ammunition for the ships and planes we buy. Despite Scomo’s announcements of “sovereign capability”, we haven’t started locally making them either.

    The plane purchases and ship builds have often been to maintain capability in the ADF and manufacturing, so we don’t really think they will fight, so we don’t prepare for them to do so. Most of our ships and aircraft could not fire a full load of missiles more than once or twice before we ran out. The Anzacs at launch were not even fitted with most of their weapons.

    Our army is the same but it does not matter nearly as much as some claim because, unless we send it off on a foreign military adventure, it won’t face anything like a Ukraine War situation. The entire Chinese navy does not have the capacity to land enough troops to threaten Australia. A maritime blockade would be a much greater threat.

    Better ammunition stocks is a small expenditure compared to the billions we spend developing new ships and planes (and tanks). So we do need to upgrade some military industry, but not in the way RUSI suggest, and IMO it could be done for no more money by redirecting current wasteful defence expenditure.

  14. Dr John at 9.36 pm, and Steve777 at 10.09 pm

    Antony Green would appreciate an early summer election in 2024 rather than an autumn 2025 election. Antony shares a birthday (on 2 March) with Albo, but he will be 65 in autumn 2025, and Albo a mere 62.

  15. Dandy M-H,
    Very interesting story in the Fairfax papers tonight about the close relationship between Nick Kyrgios and Andy Murray. Apparently Andy Murray helped save Nick Kyrgios from himself in a very major way.

  16. The report venison linked to was pretty close to the money, IMHO.

    As for assuming China would support Russia, surely this is a robust assumption, in that if it doesn’t then there is little downside; whereas if they do, even through indirect measures like preferential access to microchips, then you’d want to be prepared.

  17. I can only see China “supporting” Russia in the sense of agreeing to buy surplus gas and oil off Russia. This will be to China’s advantage not Russia’s, since Russia will need to sell at a low price. It may prolong the war in terms of financial support, but that is all.

    We don’t have any evidence that China is sending Russia ammunition. Russia makes its own unguided munitions. China is increasingly designing its own guided weapons, so I don’t see how China can step in and magically restock Russia’s guided weapons, which are not the same.

  18. Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    4h
    One Third of Tory MPs have now Nominated a Candidate:

    Sunak: 27
    Mordaunt: 18
    Truss: 13
    Hunt: 11
    Braverman: 9
    Zahawi: 9
    Badenoch: 9
    Tugendhat: 7
    Javid: 4
    Patel: 3
    Shapps: 2
    _________________________________________________________

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    2h
    >55% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 want a SIMILAR approach on:

    Ukraine
    Brexit
    Foreign policy

    >40% want a DIFFERENT approach on:

    Taxes
    Government spending
    NHS
    HS2

  19. Dr Doolittle @ 8:43
    “In what sense is that British military institute report objective?”
    vershinin’s essay in rusi is objective in a way that the institute for the study of war most emphatically is not [*], the i.s.w., existing, as it does, to channel neo-conservative thought into u.s. media news cycles under a bogus cloak of impartiality, is systemically incapable of objectivity. check out the board m’ship, i mean, bill kristol, for crissake, petraeus, joe lieberman (!), kimberley kagan (victoria nuland’s sister in law) and the two kagan brothers. [**]. rusi on the other hand is not captive to neo-conservative thinking.

    “He gives no evidence to confirm China has been providing Russia with military materiel.”
    he didn’t say they are, and they aren’t. russia is the world’s second largest arms exporter, they don’t need anyone else’s bullets. you might perhaps like to peruse the joint statements putin & xi issued at the time of the olympics, vershinin has. they have each other’s back : the goal is to force multilateralism on the united states. the days when china or india or russia would fall into line when america snapped its fingers are well & truly over.

    imho, the military summary channel on you tube provides good daily updates, using official statements from both sides in putting them together, on maps. reisner of the austrian army is also good, though military summary’s use of google maps in his presentation is more effective/ dynamic/ informative.
    military summary channel :- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA?app=desktop
    reisner :- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEbLuAPobao&t=113s

    [*]Paul Tu says:
    Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 5:35 pm
    By the way, for those interested in a. relatively impartial and factual view of the Ukrainian conflict, I would recommend
    https://www.understandingwar.org/publications

    [**] https://rattibha.com/thread/1526793674809561088?lang=en

  20. An opinion well out of line with recent polls

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (+1)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch
    6-8 Jul.
    Changes w/ 22-24 Jun.

  21. Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch
    ·
    18h
    However, Labour now hold a substantial lead on our binary best government tracker.

    49% would prefer a Labour government led by Starmer
    30% would prefer a Con government led by Johnson

    This is Labour’s largest lead on this question yet

  22. for what its worth . . .
    upcoming elections in eu countries :-
    september :
    – parliamentary elections : Sweden.
    – regional & local elections : czech republic.
    october :
    – parliamentary elections : latvia & bosnia-herzegovina.
    – presidential elections : slovenia
    – regional & local elections : germany.
    – regional & local elections : poland.
    november :
    – regional & local elections : slovenia.
    – mid-term elections : usa

  23. With his criminal trial for contempt of Congress approaching, Steve Bannon, an ally of former President Donald Trump who was involved in his plans to overturn the 2020 election, has informed the House committee investigating the Capitol attack that he is willing to testify, according to two letters obtained by The New York Times.

    His decision is a remarkable about-face for Bannon, who until Saturday had been among the most obstinate and defiant of the committee’s potential witnesses. He had promised to turn the criminal case against him into the “misdemeanor from hell” for the justice department.

    But with the possibility of two years in jail and large fines looming on the horizon, Bannon has been authorised to testify by Trump, his attorney told the committee in a letter late Saturday (local time).

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bannon-facing-jail-and-fines-agrees-to-testify-to-jan-6-committee-20220711-p5b0l3.html

  24. You can add SfM to the other two.

    The lessons of Johnson’s rise and fall are simple and old-fashioned: Don’t treat politics as a branch of the entertainment industry; it’s too serious for that. Knowledge and competence are important in leaders; their lack is not a virtue. And character counts above all: Someone who can’t be trusted to tell the truth can’t be trusted to govern. It’s staggering that it’s taken the Tories this long to accept those basic home truths.

    What’s even more staggering is that Republicans in the United States still have not, even though Trump’s political sins are far more serious. Johnson did not, after all, incite a mob to ransack Parliament in order to stay in power. His offenses are political misdemeanors compared to Trump’s major felonies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/08/boris-johnson-resignation-donald-trump-republications-tories-gop-conservatives/

  25. We’re facing a new COVID wave and this is big business.

    Ai Group’s Victorian head Tim Piper said a return to more remote work at this stage – especially if it were mandated – would hinder the progress that many businesses have made since heading back to face-to-face work early this year.

    “The suggestion undermines the really good effort that employers and employees have made since Omicron really hit us in January,” he said.

    Adopting other COVID safety measures, such as mask-wearing in offices to help reduce transmission, would hurt the momentum that businesses have built since the lockdowns.

    “The revisiting of masks in offices would be absolutely counter-productive,” he said. “It’s the one issue that has galvanised people to stay away from work.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/we-cannot-retreat-businesses-warn-a-return-to-work-from-home-won-t-work-for-them-20220710-p5b0ft.html

    Unbelievable illogic and clearly they’ve learned nothing from the last 6 months. When infections rise and people get sick they can’t work anyway. Isn’t it better to have people working from home or wearing masks in the workplace if they can’t work from home than getting sick and being off work for a week or two?

  26. Fess

    “ Unbelievable illogic and clearly they’ve learned nothing from the last 6 months. When infections rise and people get sick they can’t work anyway. Isn’t it better to have people working from home or wearing masks in the workplace if they can’t work from home than getting sick and being off work for a week or two?”

    I’ve always said you can’t help the stupids, there are so many of them and they’re beyond assistance. This ridiculous logic is the product of short term thinking and a lack of critical thought at a societal level.

  27. Mr Mojo Rising:
    Thanks Oliver – totally agree with your sentiments.
    However, “Mr Mojo Risin” was a word play on Jim Morrison.

    And as much as I crave Prince & U2 – I’ll raise you one Joni Mitchell – Blue (1971) to best anything from 1984.
    1971 was still the best year for popular music, ever.

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