Live commentary
1:10pm As I said earlier, the political class exaggerates the meaning of by-elections, which are poor predictors of the next general election result. But these bad losses for the Conservatives could put Boris Johnson back in danger.
1:06pm Lib Dems win T&H by about 14% – HUGE swing!
1:04pm Lib Dems GAIN T&H from Conservatives
1:01pm Labour wins Wakefield by about 18%.
12:57pm Labour GAINS Wakefield from the Conservatives.
12:10pm Wakefield results due in the next 30 minutes, T&H in 60 to 90 minutes according to Britain Elects. This was posted ten minutes ago.
11:40am Friday I haven’t missed anything at gym. More than 4.5 hours after polls closed, still no results from either by-election. All I can report is that turnout in Wakefield was 39.1% (down 24.5% from 2019 general election turnout) and 52.0% in T&H (down 19.9%). Turnout in by-elections is always well down from general elections.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
UK parliamentary by-elections are today in two Conservative-held seats, with polls closing at 7am Friday AEST. Both seats were vacated owing to misbehaviour by the incumbent MPs, with the Wakefield MP resigning after a conviction for child sexual assault, while the Tiverton & Honiton MP was caught watching porn in parliament.
Wakefield was held by Labour from 1932 until the Conservatives won it in 2019, while Tiverton & Honiton has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1997. Labour will be the main challenger in Wakefield and the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton & Honiton. Two polls in Wakefield have Labour winning by 20 and 23 points; I have not seen any polls in Tiverton & Honiton.
If Labour wins Wakefield, I believe it would be their first gain at a by-election since Corby in November 2012. In a sign that by-election results are overread by the political class, the Conservatives regained Corby at the 2015 general election, and have held it since.
At the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won Wakefield by 47.3-39.8 over Labour, with 6.1% for the Brexit party and 3.9% Liberal Democrats. Wakefield voted Leave by 63-37 at the 2016 Brexit referendum. The Conservatives won Tiverton & Honiton in 2019 by 60.2-19.5 over Labour with 14.8% for the Liberal Democrats and 3.8% Greens. It voted Leave by 57.8-42.2.
While Tiverton & Honiton is held by a big margin, the Liberal Democrats had massive swings to them at both the North Shropshire by-election in December 2021 and the Chesham & Amersham by-election in June 2021.
In recent days, there has been much media and political focus on rail strikes. While voters want the trains to run, inflation and the resulting real wage cuts are a major problem, so voters may sympathize with workers demanding better pay.
Other matters: Israel, Colombia and Ukraine
A year ago, Israeli parties from across the political spectrum formed a government to oust Benjamin Netanyahu, who was PM from 2009 to 2021. However, this government has now collapsed, and new elections are expected in late October or November. Polls suggest Netanyahu’s Likud, with support from religious parties, would win close to a majority of the Knesset.
At Sunday’s Colombian presidential runoff election, the left-wing Gustavo Petro defeated the right-wing populist Rodolfo Hernández by a 50.4-47.3 margin. Petro is the first leftist to win the Colombian presidency.
The left has performed well in recent South American elections, with wins in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. The most important South American election is Brazil in October, where far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is badly trailing his left-wing challenger, Lula.
The Ukraine war has faded out of the headlines, but it still going on. There is currently a bloody conflict in eastern Ukraine. This continuing war is one reason for high global inflation, which is undermining Western incumbents.
Note: I go to gym on Friday mornings, so will not be providing commentary until I return.
In what universe would Benjamin Netanyahu stand a chance of being re-elected?
Oh, wait – I just realized that it would probably be the same universe where Donald Trump stands a chance of being re-elected – i.e. this one 🙁
Given how insane the anti-Netanyahu Coalition was, brought together purely to topple Netanyahu with the slimmest of majorities and hugely disparate views, they did a pretty good job of hanging in there for a year and doing some reasonable things while Netanyahu ran the McConnell/Abbott “wreck everything” opposition playbook at them.
You’d hope the Israeli people would reward the Coalition members and punish Likud, but really the best chance to see the back of Netanyahu for good is him getting convicted in one of his trials.
Adrian
Let me assure you from the UK, that the huge rail strikes are not only hugely unpopular but a bigger problem for Labour than the Conservatives.
Any sympathy people have with the ‘workers’ due to cost of living pressures, is undercut by two things:
1. The hardline, hard left rhetoric of the union boss Mick Lynch.
2. The fact that the rail workers already get way above the average worker’s wage, and well above nurses and other public sector roles considered ‘more sacred’
And with about 15 Labour MPs having actually joined strikers on the picket lines proudly, it’s given Keir Starmer quite a headache as he tries to thread the neadle of being against the strikes and seeking to deflect blame on the government – whilst the government of the day will always get some blame for current events by default, it actually plays to their strengths “strikers hurting strivers” etc.
That said, none of this will change the fact that the government will lose both by-elections by significant margins IMO – the biggest swing will be in Tiverton and Honiton to the Lib Dems, a classic part of the ‘blue wall’ that really has turned against Boris. The Lib Dems will comfortably win from 3rd place like they did in North Shropshire, probably an even bigger swing this time of c. 30% (i.e. 60% change).
Wakefield will see a swing of c. 12-15% to Labour IMO, and there’s only a small margin to defend so if in fact it turns out to be a much smaller margin, it will be spun as a ‘pyrrhic victory’ for the government.
Rule of thumb: public transport strikes never gain sympathy for the strikers. There’s a reason why the NSW government and that idiot Bevan Shields wanted to paint the recent Sydney trains lockout as a union strike.
BTSays said,1. “The hardline, hard left rhetoric of the union boss Mick Lynch.” What interviews have you been watching? He has come across as very reasonable and logical.The right wing media attempted to smear him as a throwback from the 70’s and have been made to look like the partisan fools they are. You’re an idiot!
“Other matters: Israel”…
With the historical shrinkage of the Israeli Labor Party, whatever happens in elections in Israel seems to have become just about irrelevant. Everybody pretty much agrees on just about everything… They are only left to personal attacks and arguments about wrongdoing/corruption etc., as it happened to Netanyahu, to distinguish among themselves.
At this rate, the Israel-Palestinian issue will never be resolved.
“The left has performed well in recent South American elections”… Yes, and the fundamental motivation for that result is that South Americans are pretty much fed up with the Neoliberal experiment, that some of those countries started early on, in the 1970s. I agree that Brazil will be a crucial test, and surely Lula has learned from past mistakes.
Interestingly, this time around the South American left is pushing for greater social justice outside the old and bankrupt Marxist framework. That’s likely to make a very big difference, especially in their relationship with the USA.
Clem Atlee
I’ve got no skin in the game, I rarely use trains. I can assess the national mood on a topic though.
Why would I present a bias?
You’re entitled to a different opinion, but what’s with the insults?
I also assume you’re in Australia, as it certainly looks very different here to 12,000 miles away.
Lynch spends forever talking about the rail workers, trying to spin that they don’t really get paid that decent a wage. He claims to be sorry there’s disruption, but from his tone as well as his actions clearly doesn’t give a monkeys about Joe Public and the many other ‘workers’ whose lives he is ruining.
Lynch shows no inclination to compromise, only to pick a fight. He’s on record with comments that make plain he will always push for more whatever they’re offered, it’s not about what level things should be set at. That’s regardless of if you ignore the offers that are certainly above what most people are getting offered as wages.
The 1970s/early 1980s in the UK proved that the spiral of ever increasing inflation, and damage to the economy – yes, to ordinary working-class people – when union demands are caved into is real. The term ‘stagflation’ was coined for a reason. And they always push for more when they get a little success, there’s no motivation given by them for employers to revise offers because they will never get thanked.
Believe me, Mick Lynch is not a popular guy even though he’s timed the strikes right when the government are on the ropes with their own unpopularity.
These guys struggle to see any POV outside their bubble so often misjudge public reaction to their actions.
Brazil appears to have a very unappealing choice again this year.
Stick with a guy who has authoritarian and ‘Trumpy’ tendencies, or revert back to a previous president who is proven corrupt and epitomises the entrenched corruption in the political system there.
BTSays wrote, “I’ve got no skin in the game…” Well you would say that wouldn’t you. Yes I am English and I communicate with people from there every single day and I consume lots of English political media. I have a pretty good handle on what is going on. I can also spot a right shill from a distance further than Australia is from Britain. Don’t want to be labelled as an idiot….? Then stop posting idiotic things!
BTSays wrote, “Lynch spends forever talking about the rail workers…” Well, err he would, given that he is the leader of a transport union. Wow, what insight.
Player One:
So what you’re saying is…
How nice this site was briefly when threads were given to psephology during the counting of the federal election, leaving the abusive types like Clem Atlee on other threads to continue abusing people.
People across the political spectrum were having informed analysis and discussion and, yes, POLITE disagreement about . . . polls, not all the other topics that are barely if at all related to polling matters today.
A shame we can’t have this more often.
I find it genuinely strange that people think they have more to gain by bullying others away who have a different viewpoint and ending up with an echo chamber. Seems to defeat the point of bothering to post on a polling site in the first place.
He’s right, Clem. Save calling people idiots for the open threads.
[‘…while the Tiverton & Honiton MP was caught watching porn in parliament.’]
What has it come to where a Tory MP can’t watch porn in the
privacy of the Commons?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REpNTi-9oRQ
BTSays, fascist Bolsonaro and his despicable family are far more corrupt than Lula ever was
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVycR6GXsAgepTF?format=png&name=900×900
According to this poll at least there’s a clear majority who believe the strikes are justified, and interestingly younger voters – the people who would most disproportionately be affected by the strikes themselves – are the ones who support them the most.
IMO it’s not going to have much of an impact on the by elections but it does make Keir Starmer’s politicking on the issue look utterly ridiculous for an alleged Labour leader. And FWIW Mick Lynch has so far eviscerated every Tory and media hack that took a run at him. Not that he’s running for anything- which is part of his appeal.
This is on the money. BTSays doesn’t seem to want to raise the issues that this female caller does. I wonder why?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REfWONHLAbs&t=311s
“And FWIW Mick Lynch has so far eviscerated every Tory and media hack that took a run at him.” What? get out of your bubble Furtive. lol. Every interview I have seen has shown him to be witty, erudite and very, very savvy. Yes, he has made the right wing media look stupid. But no, BTSays he is Arthur Scargill reincarnated. Lol.
Yeah right BTSays, Mick Lynch is the enemy of the British people. Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9ZQLI500hA
He doesn’t really have any great superpowers other than the fact that he knows what he’s talking about, says what he says what he believes, relentlessly advocates for his union’s interests and won’t put up with bullshit from people trying to villainize him. Unlike most politicians and commentators, and certainly unlike most ALP affiliated union leaders, he’s not angling for a long term media career or a parachute into a safe Labour safe. He just does the job that he has.
Early straw in the wind re. Tiverton?
‘Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Tories ‘nowhere to be seen’ as Lib Dems mount final push on polling day .. Despite a call to arms from local Tory chairman, not a single Conservative supporter shows up for last-gasp 5am push for votes, but Lib Dem activists are up bright and early with leaflets to post’
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tiverton-and-honiton-by-election-tories-fail-to-show-up-and-lib-dems-mount-final-push-on-polling-day-1701728
William re your 9.49pm call for politeness.
Thank you.
Unfortunately the poster to whom it was addressed clearly didn’t read it judging by the 3 completely uncalled for references to me in separate posts since!
This is a joke of a polling site, it’s a ‘personal insults to anyone who disagrees with me’ site when such posters are allowed to continue posting with such frequency and nastiness, especially to people who were doing nothing but responding to the article on polling matters.
Whether your tuppence worth agrees with my tuppence worth should be irrelevant to how we talk to each other on here. ‘My’ facts are no better than ‘your’ facts, and vice versa.
Ray
Lib Dems will win Tiverton by a c. 20-25% margin I believe, incredible though that means the swing will be.
“Unfortunately the poster to whom it was addressed clearly didn’t read it judging by the 3 completely uncalled for references to me in separate posts since!”
Yeah it’s called a rebuttal. Or do you think debate is just all about you making statements and everybody else having to agree with them?
Mick Lynch has ruffled a few Tory feathers, got up more than a few Tory goats, and generally caused a disturbance in the Tory universe by his modest unassuming demeanor and polite exposure of the complete and utter waste of space in the Tory hippocampus by
1 refusing to be scargil v2
2 politely quoting facts like, UK above inflation pay rises for politicians and pensioners
3 UK government calling simultaneously for the removal of the cap on on bank execs bonuses yet wage restraint for workers
4 upset Michael Green, and put the knees up the Bunter Boy himself no less
however saying all that, as most labour voters will drown there sorrows in the pub rather than being arsed to get out and vote I expect the usual cons+2 result, its Britain after all
Clem
There was no rebuttal – it was straw men of your own making. You clearly read what I didn’t say, and missed what I did say (eg like the government of the day always getting some of the blame by default etc), and therefore selected anecdotes and surveys to make those points.
But even that’s a complete side issue to the point, which is that you are plain rude and don’t know how to debate other than school playground style it seems. Offering counter arguments was never my challenge with you, as you well know.
Here is the Britain Elects write up of todays Parliamentary by-elections and a few odds and sods council elections
https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91
Results not due until approx 4AM BST in Wakefield and later in Tiverton
And a piece on why the rail strikes aren’t the wedge issue some people think it is and there is a lot of sympathy from rail workers.
Even some of my Tory voting friends support the rail workers and one even said that Grant Shapps made a real mess of his statement in Parliament on Monday by being too aggressive and did the throwing of gasoline on the fire rather than dampening it down.
There simply aren’t tens of thousands of agency train drivers certified to drive trains let alone be route certified to step in. And even if there were they wouldn’t want the job at the moment anyway. And the same applies to permanent t way staff as well.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/06/rail-strikes-wont-be-the-wedge-issue-the-tories-want-them-to-be/
Palestine, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, China, Russia
And the list goes on
Wars that keep politicians in office
You must have an enemy
Including domestically – looking for 50.1% electoral support to maintain power
“BTSays says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Brazil appears to have a very unappealing choice again this year.
Stick with a guy who has authoritarian and ‘Trumpy’ tendencies, or revert back to a previous president who is proven corrupt and epitomises the entrenched corruption in the political system there.”
In the area of corruption, nobody beats Bolsonaro, and as far as Lula is concerned, please show less bias and update yourself, he was finally acquitted of all wrong doings by the courts, in spite of a desperate conservative war against him:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C3%A1cio_Lula_da_Silva#Mensal%C3%A3o
Not to speak of Brazil under Bolsonaro being the third country in the world in terms of number of Covid cases and the second country in the world in terms of Covid deaths, all “thanks” to Bolsonaro’s deluded and criminal denial of the virus and its effects. Note how the other top two countries are the USA (messed up from the beginning of the pandemic by the other deluded right-winger, Trump) and India (also led by the deluded right-winger Modi). Bolsonaro, Trump and Modi type of right-wing politics is a clear form of Authoritarian Neoliberalism, hence Lula’s offer of a form of Social Democracy and his current good standing in the opinion polls. Lula is currently about 10% ahead of Bolsonaro in the opinion polls.
Tories have lost two local by-elections tonight so far .. one to Labour (Harlow, Essex), one to Lib Dems (Waverley, Surrey) 🙂
_________________________________________________________
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Turnout in Wakefield expected shortly. Akef Akbar (Ind candidate) is expected to save his deposit and come third
__________________________________________________________
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
·
1h
Labour staffer:
“We did Ossett [the most Tory town in Wakefield] to death”
“Best set of data I’ve seen at a by-election”
________________________________________________________
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Tiverton and Honiton: The more boxes that have opened at the count, the more positive the Lib Dems have been in their briefings to the media
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
11m
Wakefield, turnout:
39.1% (-24.5)
Tiverton & Honiton turnout confirmed at 52 per cent
”
Ray (UK)says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:16 am
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
11m
Wakefield, turnout:
39.1% (-24.5)
”
Those turnouts are horrible but what does that mean?
Journos on the ground in Wakefield are reporting of a declaration between 3-4am, later than initially expected
Tiverton and Honiton expected… well, perhaps as late as 6am, says one
”
BTSayssays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:31 pm
Clem Atlee
I’ve got no skin in the game, I rarely use trains. I can assess the national mood on a topic though.
Why would I present a bias?
You’re entitled to a different opinion, but what’s with the insults?
I also assume you’re in Australia, as it certainly looks very different here to 12,000 miles away.
”
BTSays
I got no skin in the game between you and Clem Atlee.
I am not a fan of PB Clem Atlee views neither is he of my views.
Having said that I want say that you are not impressed by his views on UK 12000 miles away.
Whereas you can comment on Australian politics and how great Dutton is doing currently and not impressed about our views who live in Australia on Dutton because they don’t align with your views. So how can your views on Dutton be worthy and Clem Atlee are not worthy from same distance is what baffles me.
”
Ray (UK)says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:50 am
Journos on the ground in Wakefield are reporting of a declaration between 3-4am, later than initially expected
Tiverton and Honiton expected… well, perhaps as late as 6am, says one
”
Ray
What I asked was what low turnout indicate regarding final result? Will Opposition win or not?
Ven @ #34 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 1:42 am
Par for the course these days Ven .. Wakefield only had 64% turnout in the last General Election, Tiverton 72% so down 25 in Wakey and 20 in Tiverton
Ven @ #37 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 1:56 am
The turnout was down by 22 in N.Shropshire when the Tories got drubbed by the Lib Dems last December, I don’t think you can speculate one way or the other on result
One side is significantly demotivated, but not so demotivated that they’ll actually vote for someone else. So they just sit this one out.
Question is, which side is most demotivated?
Alpo, if you’re going to cite COVID data, you need to look at PER CAPITA death rates, not overall. The US and Brazil have massive populations.
This page has sortable columns. On deaths per million population, Brazil is 16th and the US 17th, with both at over 3,000 deaths per million. Australia is 141 at 366 deaths per million.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
A R: conservatives, obviously, i mean extremely extremely obviously, but Labour voters weren’t exactly flocking to the polls in Wakefield. Which is remarkable given the reason why the by election’s being held in the first place. Then again, not so remarkable given that the Labour candidate’s yet another LTW paratrooper with no branch support.
Tiverton and Honiton’s turnout is so much more impressive in comparison, but then again Lib Dems actually know how to enthuse a base who in turn know how to turn out an electorate. I suspect that will be yet another Lib Dem by election victory.
The RMT is doing OK in public opinion terms and Mick Lynch is a masterful communicator. He smashes the interviewers and Conservative MPs every time.
‘The evidence so far is mixed. Three opinion polling companies have produced three different sets of results which suggest the majority of the public either supports the RMT (Survation), opposes the strikes (YouGov) or is almost equally split (Ipsos).’… Extract from the Spectator.
Wakefield result due 0330 local ie in around 15 minutes time
Tiverton due by 0430 local – the Lib Dems are already claiming victory btw
”
Adrian Beaumont: 12:10pm Wakefield results due in the next 30 minutes, T&H in 60 to 90 minutes according to Britain Elects. This was posted ten minutes ago.
”
AB
You went to Gym and did all the things you do daily in the morning and it is lunch time now and still no result. 🙂
Apparently the Tory candidate in Tiverton has locked herself in a room and is refusing to speak to the media 🙂
”
Ray (UK)says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 12:48 pm
Apparently the Tory candidate in Tiverton has locked herself in a room and is refusing to speak to the media
”
Does she remind you of someone in Australian politics?
Katherine Deves? 🙂
Labour win Wakefield, majority 4,925
Swing to Labour 12.7% (Lab +8.1, Con -17.3)
NB Brexit/Reform candidates combined for 637 votes
They were supposed to win by more than that. 23% was the target margin. Poor showing to only get 18%. 🙂