In the wake of the Morrison government’s defeat, a culture war has broken out within the Liberal Party between those who consider recovering the teal independent seats a necessary precondition for a return to power and those who believe they should be abandoned to the political left so the party might pursue different constituencies in seats that have been swinging away from Labor, notably Hunter, Werriwa, McEwen and Gorton. Support for the latter notion has been provided by former Morrison government adviser Mark Briers, who says the party “must move our party’s focus, talent and resources away from Camberwell and Malvern towards Craigieburn and Melton”, and right-wing Victorian Liberal MP Tim Smith, who says his party should “stop obsessing with the woke concerns and obsessions with the inner-urban elites”, and “take the focus off Kew” – his own seat, until November at least – “and focus on Cranbourne”.
Repudiating his soon-to-be-former colleague, former Victorian Liberal leader Michael O’Brien told The Australian there was “no path to 45 seats” at the November state election “that doesn’t run through Malvern, Kew and Hawthorn”, the latter of which was unexpectedly lost to Labor in 2018. Similarly, federal MP Paul Fletcher – who has an interest in the matter as member for the Sydney seat of Bradfield, one of only two out of the ten wealthiest electorates that remain with the Liberal Party – wrote in The Australian on Saturday that he has not heard notions to the contrary “seriously advanced by fellow Liberals”, by which I think he means he has not heard it advanced by serious fellow Liberals. However, his prescriptions for accomplishing took pains to avoid seriously criticising his own party and offered no suggestion of any policy reorientation.
Scott Morrison, who clearly isn’t kept awake at night by jibes about him being “from marketing”, proposes a middle course, seemingly based on the notion that brand damage from the Nationals had a lot to do with his government’s defeat. As reported by Sharri Markson of The Australian, Morrison proposes the solution of a re-forged coalition in which a Queensland-style Liberal National Party serves as the main brand, allied to a distinct “new progressive Liberal movement” to run in the kinds of seats lost to the teal independents.
The loss of those seats has prompted much talk about the demise of the socio-economic cleavage that has historically defined the Australian party system, including a claim in a Financial Review headline that “for the first time Labor voters earn more than Coalition voters” – later amended to “Labor electorates earn more than Coalition seats” after it was pointed out that the initial claim was wrong. The issue with such analyses is known as the ecological fallacy, whereby inferences about individual behaviour are drawn from aggregate-level data — in this case the notion that because the electorates held by the Coalition have declined in income, it follows that their support base has as well.
YouGov data scientist Shaun Ratcliff addressed this issue by drawing on the surveying for the pollster’s multi-level regression and post-stratification poll, which reached 18,923 respondents three to five weeks out from election day. Ratcliff found that while the traditional income cleavage was reduced at this election, it certainly did not disappear. Among home-owners on $150,000 a year or more, 44% voted Coalition, 31% Labor and 10% Greens; among those on $50,000 a year or less who did not own homes, 40% voted Labor, 27% Greens and just 16% voted Coalition. While the effect was somewhat weaker among those under 35, Ratcliff provides a series of charts illustrating the clear tendency of wealthier voters to favour the Coalition over Labor and “others” (Greens support did not appear contingent on income).
This was also true within the teal independent seats, with Kooyong and Goldstein in particular having experienced an influx of apartment-dwelling “young middle-income professionals”, as noted by Remy Vega in The Australian. Data from the YouGov poll suggests the Liberal vote in the twenty seats targeted by Climate 200 was around seven points lower among those on $50,000 or less than among those on higher incomes. More broadly, Ratcliff notes that “renters also swung away from the Liberal and National Party more than homeowners and the young more than the old”.
Please note that this thread is specifically for discussion about the future of the Liberal Party, or anything else suggested by the content of the post. The general discussion thread is here.
WA Liberals are also considering ways to gain more electoral support. It just looks like a lot of talk and not much action, considering the WA election was over a year ago. Were they hoping that was just an aberration and only now the federal results are in are the scales falling from their eyes?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-12/wa-liberals-pledge-change-after-disastrous-federal-poll-results/101145718
“Morrison proposes the solution of a re-forged coalition in which a Queensland-style Liberal National Party serves as the main brand …”
Yes, that has been such a spectacular success at state level in Queensland …
Brilliant discussion post to focus on the future of the Liberals William. It is going to be fascinating to see how much the Teals factor shakes up the Liberal brand and what direction they take. Surely it seems logical to me at least to just abandon the inner city and head out to burbs to is an over reaction ?
Yes, that has been such a spectacular success at state level in Queensland …
They hold 70% of Qld seats (21/30).
Got a vote compass follow up survey, they wanted me to describe what sort of racist, sexist, anti-religious person i am (for the record im only the latter, but dont go out of my way to advertise it).
Survey asks how i feel about various races, religions, sexes on a sliding scale from -5 to +5
I wasnt going to complete the survey, but instead i went to the next page and sabotaged all my results because i was offended by the question…
Honestly, how can any person answer such questions in that detail, like one race is -2 compared to -3 for others ?
Interested to hear what others think about questions like this as far as doing proper surveys go.
https://imgur.com/a/oM6dE2B
(oh sorry my bad, will post to other thread, feel free to delete WB)
The capacity of the moderate faction in the Liberal Party to influence Party policy and direction was decimated after losing four seats to Teals, four to Labor and one to the Greens in 2022. Dutton will point out that the right faction only lost 3 HOR seats in 2022, compared to 6 lost to the Morrison Party/Centre Right faction and 9 lost by the moderates. On the other hand, the other two factions will point out they retained their senate seats whilst the Right faction lost 4 senates seats at this election.
The Liberal Party currently holds 42 of 58 HOR seats in the Coalition – the Nationals held all 16 seats in 2022.
The moderate faction of the Liberal Party retained 6 HOR seats and lost 9.
Moderate Liberal seats retained (6)
James Stevens Sturt South Australia 0.7 -6.2
Bridget Archer Bass Tasmania 3.4 +2.9
David Coleman Banks New South Wales 3.4 -2.9
Warren Entsch Leichardt Queensland 3.6 -0.6
Paul Fletcher Bradfield New South Wales 4.3 -12.3 v Ind
Angie Bell Moncrieff Queensland 11.4 -4.0
On the other hand, the moderate faction of the Liberal Party lost 9 incumbents in the House of Representatives in 2022, some of them household names who were on the front bench.
Trent Zimmerman North Sydney New South Wales
Jason Falinski Mackellar New South Wales
Dave Sharma Wentworth New South Wales
Fiona Martin Reid New South Wales
John Alexander* Bennelong New South Wales
Tim Wilson Goldstein Victoria
Katie Allen Higgins Victoria
Ken Wyatt Hasluck Western Australia
Trevor Evans Brisbane Queensland
* John Alexander retired but his replacement was beaten by Labor in Bennelong.
The Liberal moderates came of the 2022 election with 7 Senate seats.
Simon Birmingham Senator South Australia 2022
Andrew McLachlan South Australia 2022
Marise Payne New South Wales 2022
Linda Reynolds Western Australia 2019
Andrew Bragg New South Wales 2019
Jane Hume Victoria 2019
Richard Colbeck Tasmania 2019
The impact on the three factions numbers can be seen below
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SEATS 2019 2022
MODERATES 15 6 -9
CENTRE RIGHT/MORRISON CLUB 24 18 -6
RIGHT FACTION 16 13 -3
NON FACTION ALIGNED/FACTION UNKNOWN 5 5 SAME-
T0TAL 60 42 -18
”
Steve777says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 6:57 am
Yes, that has been such a spectacular success at state level in Queensland …
They hold 70% of Qld seats (21/30).
”
There are couple of things Steve777
First of all, No other State has population spread (or demographics) like QLD i.e. most of them were ex-National party and there is a overlap of Liberal and National party voters. No such overlap exists in other states. WA, SA and TAS are overwhelmingly (99%) Liberal voters. Voters of Libs and Nats are clearly defined in NSW and VIC. So there is no benefit in merging like they did in QLD. Otherwise they would have done long time ago.
However, due to merging in QLD LNP is in power only during short periods of time at state level.
Second of all, Liberal party voters don’t like National Party. They accept the Coalition because that keeps Liberal party in power and ALP out of power.
The split in the NSW Liberal Party is becoming toxic; and the future looks grim with contributions like this today from Hard Right aligned minister David Elliot unloading on Moderate Matt Kean.
Elliot had been courted by the Morrison Club to run for Parramatta, a seat for which the preselection was one of a dozen purloined by the Morrison/Hawke Junta. Showing some awareness of the prevailing breeze, Elliot declined the offer. And stayed with the Perottet Hard Right.
So Hard/Conservative/Religious Right on one side, the Moderates on the other. And a desire for another cult of personality candidate like Morrison to emerge and upset the apple cart through naked ambition and bastardry.
Not a great future to look forward to for the Liberal rank and file.
Perhaps they can console themselves as the party disintegrates with outbursts like this one on 2GB this morning, where David Elliot accuses Matt Kean of treachery in undermining the Morrison campaign..
The NSW Transport Minister has slammed his Treasurer over revelations he was undermining the Coalition’s election victory.
David Elliott has told Ben Fordham: “Matt Kean’s behaviour is nothing short of treachery and will be repaid in kind”.
“I’m disgusted.
“It’s the sort of thing I have come to expect… from a certain former Liberal PM.”
According to The Australian’s Sharri Markson, Matt Kean was encouraging journalists to ask tough questions to the Prime Minister about selecting Katherine Deves as the candidate for Warringah.
In one exchange, he urged a journalist to “pap” Roads Minister Natalie Ward to get her opinion on the topic.
Matt Kean denies he was briefing against his own Government.
Ben said, “I think Dominic Perrottet is going to have to act here”.
“People have had a gutful of Matt Kean.”
https://www.2gb.com/nothing-short-of-treachery-transport-minister-slams-colleague-matt-kean/
It looks like Liberal Party Room votes between the factions is going to be interesting once the senate results are completed.
My back of an envelope calculation as things stand right now is
Moderates 13 [was 22] after losing 9 HOR seats
Centre Right 26 [was 32] after losing 6 HOR seats
Right Faction 21 [was 25] after losing 4 Senate seats.
Non Aligned/ Faction unknown 5
What a mess the NSW Liberals have become Sprocket. This will be an entertaining period leading up to the State elections as the federal Libs try to work out which way to steer the sinking ship.
One thing that the Liberals could do would be to commit that all vacant winnable seats will have women candidates.
That gives them a carrot to offer, which they can then use to dangle in front of savvy, professional women to get them to join the party and who have roots in the relevant electorate.
They could get these women together to look at the party platform, proposed policies, etc for advice (given that these women would, at this point, not have a voice within the party to do this).
Their commitment to these women would have to be strong enough for them to seriously take on board any criticisms that come out of this process.
Right out of the blocks, therefore, these preselected women candidates could demonstrate to the electorate that they were taken seriously within the Liberal party and point to real changes they’d been able to make. The other Liberal candidates (being men who were already in Parliament or men running for obscure seats) would be able to demonstrate their ability to listen and to change.
Realistically, of course, this won’t happen.
What is the likelihood of LNP reps being able to change party room? That could be interesting if possible.
Sandman, it would appear the choices for the NSW Liberals are:
1. Continue the factional infighting as is, and face election loss and a generation in Opposition.
2. One faction becomes dominant, and expels those who don’t fall in line.
3. Engineer a split, with the Moderates wooing the Teals back to the fold, and the Hard Right becoming the New Conservative movement (like Dom Perrotet was back in 2016).
Oh and thank you William for the thread. Morrison showed his hand overtly via Hawke with the NSW Liberal selections. Plenty more to play out. It is like a slow motion car crash. Although the makings of it were perhaps the Peacock/Howard years with the centre of power shifting North from Melbourne. Now shifting further North?
Edit: spelling
As I understand Morrison’s idea, he’s doing what he always does, proposing a con. Two separate parties with two separate “belief systems” will each go after separate & largely opposing voting demographics. And when they’ve got enough seats between them they’ll form a -guess what- “Coalition”!
The contradictions here make Labor’s 2019 dilemma “Coal or the environment, which is it to be? You can’t have both!” look pretty simple. The question is, as always, will the press let them get away with this sort of stuff?
I think the Liberal party (or the right of the Liberal party) have this view that Australia is like a mini version of the US. That somehow there is a large population of uneducated poor that can be subject to the same Trumpist propaganda to create a groundswell of support.
To some degree that might be possible but we’ve already seen the total extent to which this is possible with One Nation and Palmer’s abortive attempt, around 10 to a max of 15% of the population.
Unlike the US we have a larger middle class(no thanks to Howard, Abbott, Turnbull (within the constraints he was forced to work) and Morrison) and no significant rallying point for large sections of society (such as Guns or Religion).
Those things that do generally get the populace fired up (protecting Medicare,the PBS etc) are not palatable to the Liberal Right’s not so faceless men and Woman.
Essentially with Dutton at the helm the Liberals will be fighting for the same table scraps of dog whistling racism and great replacement theory as On Nation (along with other RWNJ conspiracy theories, 10:1 they’ll even posit indigenous recognition as being trying to displace good white folk).
Morrison’s proposal once again takes the wrong lesson from the defeat – and it’s no surprise that he does because it requires some introspection. The problem is not the people (broadly) – it’s the policy. Dressing up a new ‘moderate’ party doesn’t fix that if policy doesn’t change.
“Yes, that has been such a spectacular success at state level in Queensland …
They hold 70% of Qld seats (21/30).”
@Steve
I think Oliver Sutton comment was more directed at Qld’s state LNP they are not merged in Queensland federally. However, I will acknowledge they do use the LNP branding on corflutes and how to vote cards for federal campaigns.
Those suggesting the merger has been a failure a missing the point. It isn’t the merger the state LNP are in the predicament they are in now. Its Campbell Newman.
They had 78 seats and pissed up 36 seats against the wall. In terms of politcal arrogance and incompetence there has never been a more spectacular implosion.
Two of the ramifications that came from it the LNP didn’t consolidate their support in Brisbane. And they failed to groom successor leaders while in government. Deb Frecklington and David Crisafulli should at this point be senior ministers in a LNP government. Instead they have or are a taking up leadership positions and showing they are not ready for it.
I don’t think Peter Dutton would allow a merger federally. I know it was reported at the time (2009) privately Dutton was very much against the LNP state merger but he wasn’t as outspoken publicly as Mal Brough was at the time during it.
Morrison, Dutton, Abbott & Credlin are too divisive to rebuild the Liberal Party. The Liberals will lurch much further to the right and then into oblivion.
The capitalist party to oppose Labor will be formed from Teals and Greens
Re Goldensmaug @9:18.
“That somehow there is a large population of uneducated poor that can be subject to the same Trumpist propaganda to create a groundswell of support…”
I regard the moral panic over asylum seekers and to a lesser extent the weaponising of the “Carbon Tax” as examples where this sort of strategy was employed successfully, albiet on a smaller scale, back in the days when Trump was still a reality TV host and dodgy real estate tycoon. Pauline Hanson almost pulled it off in the late 90s, gaining about 23% of the vote and 11/88 seats in the 1998 Queensland State election. However, her movement proved too flakey and incoherent to succeed longer term and, as the Australian opined around that time, John Howard largely “addressed her concerns”. Another would-be demagogue, Clive Palmer, also proved too flakey – what what his recent weird campaign all about? But one day, a competent and charismatic demagogue will arise.
Of course we are not the USA. Guns and abortion aren’t big issues here, they’re regarded as pretty much settled. We are less religious, although our elected representatives, especially those on the right, are more religious than the general community.
On the other hand, we do share many common traits with the USA. In addition, a large portion of our media pushes Trumpist style populism. I believe that Australia is vulnerable to a union of Big Money with right wing authoritarian populatism, especially if the economy goes belly-up. I would expect such a movement to arise in the “Liberal” party or its successor in coming years. The demagogue will know what he’s* doing and not actually believe his own bullshit.
* almost certainly “he”
The Liberals big problem is that they, and their membership live in an echo-chamber provided by The Australian and Sky after dark, and so, inspired by Abbott 2010 and 2013, they imagine they can run the same tactic of oppose everything, add a tad of culture war (because Sky assures them that trans kids are a pressing problem) and count on adverse economic conditions to let them coast back into power. Problem is that message is the one that got them the number of seats they hold now, and thats not enough, so they are likely to be smashed again, at which point they *may* learn their lesson. If the Libs form government in three years time it will be in spite of them, not because of them.
The ACT Liberal Party (self styled as “Canberra Liberals”) have fallen even deeper into the mire with Seselja losing his Senate seat to progressive independent Pocock. They now have no federal representation at all and only nine seats in the 25 seat ACT Legislative Assembly. Locally they have been in opposition since 2001.
Seselja’s departure from the Senate should prompt them to take the opportunity for renewal but will they? There is no public indication that the chasm between Seselja’s hard right faction and the moderate faction under ACT opposition leader Elizabeth Lee is any closer to being bridged. Their next electoral test is the ACT election in October 2024 so we might see some action but it doesn’t look likely at present.
I can’t see the Liberals in their current state winning back seats like Higgins, Kooyong, Brisbane and so on. Younger renting demographics have been flooding these inner-urban former Liberal strongholds and every election, not only in Australia but internationally, is showing an amazingly fast realignment for the right-wing away from these places. The margins are effectively increasing by 5% every election cycle. Even if Labor is on the nose these places would probably choose the Greens (and some already have).
The push to reorient towards outer suburban and regional seats makes sense, but it still appears to be a long road back without immediately obvious pathways to winning. The hope is probably that Labor doesn’t adequately address cost of living and tries too hard to copy the electoral approach of the teals and Greens. Labor is probably cognizant of this, however, and will do whatever cooperation is required to entrench the teals in former Liberal seats while being fully aware that the real battle for government and the seats that they need to keep at the front and centre of their focus are outer suburban areas like Hunter, Shortland, Paterson, Werriwa, McEwen and so on.
The Liberals would also find results in places like Lindsay and Longman encouraging – a sign they might be breaking towards entrenching themselves in blue-collar areas. Notably, however, these are highly white seats. If they are hoping to replicate this for other blue-collar heavy areas of Sydney and Melbourne they need to learn how to appeal in more demographically diverse seats, and the results of this election suggest they are very far from achieving this.
From the AEC, should put the final nail in the Seselja coffin, leading to another Liberal loss to the Teals
The capture & verification of preferences for the ACT Senate has concluded with the distribution of preferences set to occur at 10am tomorrow.
The two successful candidates will be announced here and via a media release. #ausvotes2022
The people wielding power at the Liberal party live in an alternate reality.
Their goal isn’t primarily taking government, it’s to try and redirect Australian society to a Trumpist social conservatism that will make a lot of money for their donors. Until that changes, they aren’t likely to win government, unless there’s a complete collapse of the progressive government.
“Morrison, Dutton, Abbott & Credlin are too divisive to rebuild the Liberal Party. The Liberals will lurch much further to the right and then into oblivion.”
@billie
I will say this though that after the 2007 federal campaign it was claimed that John Howard left the Liberal party ‘without a soul’. The Liberals got back into power six years later.
Howard has never made the mistake of underestimating his enemy. Howard said this after Labor’s defeat in 2019. ‘The Labor party is not dead’. ‘The Labor Party will come back fighting again. Deep down, we should never imagine that we are immune from hurbris, that we are never going to lose an election.’
Anthony Albanese was written off many times on this blog during opposition. The amount of times of suggestions of changing leaders or doom and gloom talk on here could fill a encyclopedia. I suggest some should not be overly cocky with their predictions and become complacent as it certainly can come back to bite you.
Perrotet’s faction does not have the numbers to remain in power. He relies on Matt Kean being happy to stay in power.
Chance of kean being demoted in a reshuffle – 1%
If kean is demoted, the chance of a leadership spill next week elevating him to premier? 99%
Perrotet is not stupid. He won’t rock the boat.
Thanks William, this article is a very good idea, as I would expect that the civil war that’s been going on inside the Liberals in particular, but also the Nats and to a lower extent the Qld LNP, for quite some time, will finally flare up and become noticeable even to the stronger supporters of the Coalition (e.g. the Murdoch media). What’s going to happen to the Coalition parties as a result?… Well, I will be watching with great interest, and I have a big supply of popcorn.
Dilemma 1: Attack the Teals or go for marginal Labor seats?
The Liberals in particular should be concerned about both. Because the Teals are just getting started and have all the intentions of expanding through the traditional Liberal heartland, and from then to other Liberal-dominated areas. If the Liberals give up and try to shift their emphasis to marginal ALP seats, they will be confronted with a big problem. The erosion of the ALP vote in traditional working-class electorates, in my view, has been mainly a result of 9 years of relentless anti-ALP propaganda that took advantage of the ALP being in opposition, and hence incapable of introducing any legislation, or taking any initiative that might have helped working class people in strife. But now they are in government, they control where the money is going and for what purposes, therefore they are in the position to help the working class electorates and hence recoup their votes. The next Federal election will likely see the primary vote of the ALP increase significantly due to the addition of those working class voters who were lost to the populist Liberals, PHON and Palmer.
Dilemma 2: Blame the Nationals?
“Scott Morrison, who clearly isn’t kept awake at night by jibes about him being “from marketing”, proposes a middle course, seemingly based on the notion that brand damage from the Nationals had a lot to do with his government’s defeat. “… That’s completely delusional. The Nationals held their ground at the election, the ones to go backwards were the Liberals first and above all. Following Morrison in his usual delusion will just deliver another “miracle”…. for the ALP!
Dilemma 3: Believe that the Liberals have become the “party of the workers”?
“The issue with such analyses is known as the ecological fallacy, whereby inferences about individual behaviour are drawn from aggregate-level data — in this case the notion that because the electorates held by the Coalition have declined in income, it follows that their support base has as well.”… Your statement is correct, William. If you have two voters voting for you, one earning $300,000 pa and the other earning $20,000 pa, but then one day the rich one decides to vote for the Teals and you are left with the usual $20,000 pa voter only, it doesn’t mean that the “working class” has suddenly shifted to support you. On the other hand it is true that many working class voters were attracted in the past by the populist Hanson and Palmer and then manipulated to preference the Coalition above the ALP. Hence, in part, the Morrison “miracle” of 2019. But it’s obvious that such a “trickling down effect” didn’t quite happen in 2022. It looks like that the ALP, Greens and Teals may be able to attract quite a few working class people.
When LNP lost federal elections in 1993 & 2007 and when they barely scraped through in 1998 election after landslide win 1996, Liberals never lost following seats in above elections:
Kooyong, Goldstein, Indi, Mayo, Wentworth, North Sydney, Mackellar, Warringah, Higgins, Bennelong, Ryan and Curtin.
Those seats are heart and soul of Liberal party. Now they lost all of them. Other than Bennelong, they lost all other seats to women.
So professional women do not trust Liberal party anymore.
Treatment of Liberal party staffers like Brittany Higgins and Rachelle Miller by Liberal Ministers and other Liberal men was the last straw on the camel that broke the back.
How ironic is that they lost the seat of Higgins to a Professional woman although it was represented by another Professional woman. I repeat Libs never lost this seat before.
That SfM thinks having a centrist party core with a separate branch for appealing to the ‘lost’ voters in the blue ribbon seats is bound to work, surely. There is no way that the inner city voters will connect the candidates the Libs want to offer them with the knuckle draggers the party is fielding in the suburbs and the bush. Go for it I say!
“Steve777 says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 6:57 am
Yes, that has been such a spectacular success at state level in Queensland …
They hold 70% of Qld seats (21/30).”
The Queensland State vs Federal election results contradiction remains unexplained. But it is clear that uniting the Libs and Nats into a full federal LNP doesn’t guarantee anything in terms of electoral success, as the “Queensland conundrum” is not shared by the other states: e.g. the state ALP-dominated WA trashed the Liberals at the federal election too. Victoria remains a strong ALP state at both federal and state levels, same with the ACT, etc.
Moreover, the primary vote for the Qld LNP was eroded at this election (although to enough). So I would wait until the result of the next federal election, after the Albo Federal government have demonstrated their capacity to help the people of Queensland, to see whether the “Queensland conundrum” remains in place.
Perrottet’s pre-election budget is getting a dream run in the MSM. Almost every day there is another unveiling of goodies masquerading as news. There are also the taxpayer funded ads extoling various giveaways.
Presumably Perrottet is hoping that his budget bonanza will counteract the negative forces of a divided and tired minority government at the March election. Time will tell.
I refer to Gittins in the SMH today when I add that (said before on BP), that Coalition education policy, grounded in obscene funding for the private sector has backfired in the richer seats.
Either the teachers in Sandstone Grammar wee actually not (as argued by Dutton et al) able to brainwash students into being compliant voters (albeit for the LNP and not the Commies as spud would suggest) and that all that extra funding actually gave the students a more balanced intelligence and have seen through the Tory bullshit?
We know that the Tory message is all about getting the uneducated to vote for policies that go against their best interests so that the business/government nexus will ‘thrive’ on rorts and handouts to mates.
Citizen, yes…we are getting flyers from our local member (Lib) touting the voucher system. It all appears very ‘governmental’ except for the Liberal logo in the corner.
It’s worth having a look at Hunter, Werriwa, McEwen & Gorton.
In Hunter, there was a swing to Labor of 1.12% with a 2PP of about 54%, still lower than the pre-2019 result but Labor remaining strong in the centres that matter: Cessnock, Maitland, Edgeworth. The Right-of-centre vote has split and unless it coalesces around a single candidate, the NATs can’t win. The ALP PV has to fall well below 38% [GRN 8%] to improve the NATs’ chances. The 2019 result shook Labor out of its complacency. It won’t happen again.
Werriwa is interesting because the combined UAP/ON/LDP PV was some 23% but the ALP still got a small swing to it of 0.42% despite a PV swing against it of 7.89%. The LIBs lost 4.60%. For the Centre-Right to win, it needs a single candidate. Highly unlikely as a lot of UAP/ON voters’ are really ALP voters whose preferences return to Labor. So again, it’s highly unlikely that the LIBs can ever win this one.
McEwen was held by the LIB’s Fran Bailey who as tourism minister reportedly sacked Scott Morrison as head of Tourism Australia. So it’s marginal but at present, with a GRN PV of 14.14% bolstering the ALP PV for a combined PV of 50%, not much chance of a change here despite a 2.04 swing against Labor.
Gorton is like McEwen with a bit of a swing against Labor [-4.24%] in 2022 but a 2PP of 59.96%. The UAP/ON got 14.89% but the LIBs only 27.44%. So it’s hard to see a LIB win any time soon.
I think the conversation in LIB circles should be about making sure that it doesn’t lose more VIC seats to Labor. Take a look at Deakin [just held], Menzies, Casey, Monash and Aston. All marginal.
Can the Liberals get the likes of Curtin and Warringah and Kooyong back next time?
The problem for them might be that the newly elected independents become entrenched in those seats by the time 2025 comes along, as Zali Steggell and Rebbekah Sharkie have done so respectively in their electorates, Helen Haines too.
I assume the Liberals will target Tangney, Bennelong, Boothby and Ryan and Robertson.
Of course if Albanese runs a stable and competent government for the next 3 years and the economy doesn’t worsen too much, Labor could increase its majority next time, targeting seats it missed out just this time – Deakin, Sturt, Banks etc.
The “Liberals” business model:
Doesn’t have to be a foreigner. Any demonised group will do.
The seeming collapse in previously safe liberal seats.. by safe I mean never won by Labor maybe suggests demographic change or is it a situation of previous small l liberals having no where to go. Morrison toxicity over laped all this.
Ven says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 10:58 am
Kooyong, Goldstein, Indi, Mayo, Wentworth, North Sydney, Mackellar, Warringah, Higgins, Bennelong, Ryan and Curtin.
Those seats are heart and soul of Liberal party.
This would have been a truism for most of the period since the formation of the Liberals. But it is no longer true. The Liberals do not aspire to represent the ranks of the Lite. And the Lite know it. It is for precisely this reason that they have mobilised to defeat the Liberals wherever they can.
Parties are formed to represent the interests and ambitions of mutually-identifying constituencies. Parties are ‘from’ the people. The Liberal Party has become an organ without a people….without a home.
It is a construct organised and run to serve the cliques who have colonised it: the evangelicals, the ideological reactionaries, the catholic chauvinists, the careerists and the agents of its donors. It is not ‘of the people’. Rather, it exists in spite of the people.
David Elliott’s expected outburst on 2GB should be called out for what it is – a bitter attempt by his failed Morrison/Hawke led “centre-right” faction to drive the remaining moderates like Kean out of the party, or at least severely weaken them, and then cut a deal with the hard-right faction to pick up the spoils. Elliott is said to not be happy in the role as Transport Minister and doesn’t like being relegated by the Perrottet-Kean stitch up. And of course the centre-right have the likes of Fordham and Markson to do their bidding.
According to my father-in-law, after stating that he is a lifelong Liberal voter the reason they lost the election was in fighting amongst the Coalition.
I queried if he thought it had anything to do with how they treated women etc and the response was a shake of the head.
If they sort out their in-fighting they will be fine.
Re Mick @11:46
“The seeming collapse in previously safe liberal seats.. by safe I mean never won by Labor maybe suggests demographic change or is it a situation of previous small l liberals having no where to go. Morrison toxicity over laped all this.”
I think that it’s more small ‘l’ liberals no longer identifying with the “Liberals”.
John Anderson says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 11:30 am
I think the conversation in LIB circles should be about making sure that it doesn’t lose more VIC seats to Labor. Take a look at Deakin [just held], Menzies, Casey, Monash and Aston. All marginal.
Labor should be targeting every Lib-held seat from Leichhardt to Braddon, from Cook to Canning.
The Lying Reactionaries do not represent the interests, values, and aspirations of their constituents. They seek to serve no-one but themselves and their prejudices.
Citizen – The only benefit the Canberra Liberals do have is that the Hare-Clarke System allows the individual candidates for the party to run as basically individuals only aligned with the party. I suspect the moderates will become far more negative towards the Hard Right in their campaigning this time, virtually running a campaign inside the wider campaign. Hare-Clarke does therefore decentralise the party system somewhat.
The problem they do have is the ACT is not a monolith of voters. The biggest chunk of the locked in Liberal vote is the hardcore with lots of religious fundies. The moderate vote has always gotten lost in which ever third party grouping is cropping up at that election and disappearing before the next (Bullet Train anyone?).
The colonisation of the Liberal Party by reactionaries has already lead to its partial dissolution. This is likely to lead to an eventual reorganisation of the Anti-Labor ranks, as occurred in 1910 and 1944. Unless they re-organise – unless they reconstitute themselves as a renewed, broadly-based social/popular organ – they will not be able to compete for power.
The period ahead offers very great opportunities for Labor to re-build it plurality – its capacity to represent the community and to govern for all. Labor has been actively recruiting from the broad community for many years. This has worked for Labor. The Liberals, by contrast, have sought to become more exclusive. They have immured themselves against the modern and the young. They will not succeed until they change themselves.
To Bludging,
Yes, I should have included seats the like of Leichhardt and Sturt as well the VIC seats. The Right-of-centre vote has badly fractured among UAP, ON and LDP on the right, and to the Teals on the left. The Liberal party is in a diabolical situation. I can’t see the Coalition winning in 2025 unless Teal seats are won back, and unless Peter Dutton abandons his belligerent, hardline, take-no-prisoners approach to Opposition politics. Of course, Dutton won’t change and the Teals will hold their seats. If the Labor government can’t win a second term given the disarray in LIB circles, they may as well fold into the Greens.
So on the plus side for the Liberals:
* Liberals could easily be back in 3 – 6 years, they have Rupert and Costello TV, and Stokes running a constant partisan political campaign from now to their return
* If the Liberals can keep the corporate donations and special trust funds, lets call them future porters
* They can run any combination of trumpy bs lies and fantasy and will probably be called ‘smart’ or ‘politically savvy’ or ‘well disciplined political messaging.
The key here is the media and how bad they really are and how effective they really are. Personally I don’t see Kevin 07 nor 22 Albo as a sign they are ineffective. More a sign that they aren’t quite at 1984 convince people to ignore truth levels.
That was the upside on the downside:
* They are at risk from a slightly more overt conservative teal party emerging. I’d like to say it would need to be a credible teal party, and perhaps to become a true core feature of Australian politics for a half century or more it would, but there is risk from a fake teal formation.
A real teal or a fake teal party might even partially trap Rupert, Costello and Stokes, they will want to pull this faction to their particular right but they may have to try and ‘push from the inside’ rather than the usual Fox / Sky all out war.
A real or fake teal party might be able to siphon funds away from the LNP. This might also be an indirect way to siphon money out of the Nats, because currently you buy the nats on the right policy area and that will be LNP Govt policy, the risk of the nats being just a voice in a broader coalition, or worse for them excluded, weakens them and the attractiveness of buying policy, I mean making completely untied donations out of love.
There has been a lot of work to pump up the tyres of so called liberal moderates. These guys have been cheers leaders for Scotty and now Dutton they barely have more right to call themselves moderates than the magas that stormed congress. To extend the metaphor at best they’d have stood by clapping politely and winking support for the falling officers, before running of to the media to tell them how much they love the officers and are really moderates.
There is a lot more fun in some form of evolving teal party (beyond, beside, separate from the one that came to be this election). It is also good for labor if the very blue teals are exposed on economic issues and outcomes.
Much has been said about the Liberals losing most of its suburban heartland but some of it has been wide of the mark. One of the worst takes has been that its about demographics and people living in apartments because many of these seats already had large rental populations when the Liberals held the seats and it ignores something far deeper that has been going on really since the 1993 election.
Australia has been changing thanks to Whitlam making universities more accessible and the Hawke/Keating government’s economic reforms and starting the process of changing the nature of the national debate. Since then the conversation has been around how this has impacted the ALP base but not much attention has been paid to what has it done to the Liberal Party base.
Had the Liberal Party been more progressive like we see from Boris Johnson and Angela Merkel then they would be winning its suburban heartland seats but the Liberals have become more and more reactionary but because the ALP and the Greens kept playing the class game about rich people not paying taxes and those private schools those seats held their noses and kept voting Liberal but in smaller numbers.
Daniel Andrews and Matt McGowan effect. These two ALP leaders run middle of the road progressive governments that do not run on class based envy and that has made it easier for Liberals to turn away from the Liberal Party. Lets look at the last three years. The Morrison government made a number of poor decisions that betrayed any sense of them being in charge of the pandemic and other issues that go to the heart of today’s corporate world.
Women have always been vital to the Liberal Party in its heartland and that goes back to Menzies but Morrison went for the blokey tradie vote and that might be good strategy if you are also keeping faith with your real heartland but Morrison and the Liberals have not been doing that for years and you could see that by how they spoke about these people and their concerns. If someone in the ALP leadership spoke about the ALP heartland like many Liberals talk about their heartland they would be kicked out of the ALP but the Liberals wear it like a badge of honor.
The teals ran a brilliant campaign because they stuck to their issues and didn’t go down the class envy route but they were also helped by the ALP running a more centralist campaign because between these two campaigns and the Liberals lack of performance and lack of direction left them exposed.
People claim that the teal seats and Higgins Tangney and Ryan will never back to the Liberals but that smacks of hubris and doesn’t understand these seats and the breakdown in the relationship between them and the Liberal Party.
If the Liberals get the message then they might recover these seats over the next ten years but the Liberal Party has a habit of dismissing all alternative issues to their own as leftie and we are seeing that from Peta Credlin and John Roskam but if the Liberals don’t self correct then the teals might come to replace the Liberals to fill the centre right economically conservative and socially progressive role.