This is one of three new posts I have on offer, providing a thread for general discussion. The other two featured below deal with the ongoing counting for the House of Representatives, with Labor’s potential parliamentary majority remaining up in the air, and the race for the Senate, in which I expect Labor and the Greens to account for half the seats between them, but with a number of outcomes depending on complex flows of preferences.
Election results aside, the main item of news to relate is that the Liberal and Nationals party rooms will hold their first meetings to sort out party leadership positions. Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley will be confirmed as Liberal leader and deputy leader unopposed, but a contested vote looms for the Nationals, in which David Littleproud and Darren Chester will seek to depose Barnaby Joyce. In Joyce’s favour is the fact that the Nationals retained all their seats at the election; in Littleproud’s is the fact that Joyce had a lot to do with the Liberals losing so many of theirs, leaving the Nationals in opposition; Chester I’m guessing is a dark horse.
Thanks to The West Australian, Peter Dutton can be welcomed to the opposition leadership with the first published opinion poll of the new era, conducted on Thursday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1354 Western Australian respondents. It finds only 19% rating Peter Dutton a “suitable candidate” to lead the party, compared with 58% who registered a view to the contrary. Dutton’s positive ratings were 16% among women and 23% among men.
This is from a Young Liberal president. Again, you have to ask why have these people have only been “watching on” instead of actively trying to force change?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-young-liberals-wishlist-for-their-languishing-party-20220526-p5aox2.html
Thanks for this and the other threads William, they are very informative.
There are some articles on the Greens campaigns in Brisbane. Their campaigns were clearly effective and focused on hot button issues for young voters like housing affordability, not just climate change and environment. It is a bit galling for Labor to lose on this issue, since Shorten campaigned on housing reforms (negative gearing) in 2019 and lost, and the problem was caused by Liberals (Costello) not Labor.
Nevertheless it is clear the Greens Brisbane campaign machine now is precisely that, and being young and energetic will be a threat in future elections too.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/qld-federal-election-greens-win-power-in-hung-parliament/100980424
And
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/28/adam-bandt-how-the-greens-triumphed?fbclid=IwAR0gNKcPQEuEHrfQR2cW4QRrPQyNMMMNFwGqqZPbKkuyrY2ZER3YW5r4i90#mtr
Confessions
Morning. I’ll take the “young foggies” seriously when they say those comments while still in office. Some of their own former members are among the alleged offenders.
They all loved Morrison when he lied his way to victory too.
Socrates @ #NaN Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 6:26 am
Yes, like I said, where have these voices been all these years?
Although on reflection, perhaps I’m being too uncharitable to the woman. She may well have tried to effect change, but because the Liberal party actively silences women and dismisses their concerns, any efforts by women to force change would’ve been disregarded anyway.
Cronus says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 6:43 am
Gabba – from last night
“Drilling down into coal seams to harvest that same CSG gas also releases methane, since the holes are not completely sealed at their sides, and a goodly proportion of holes are not successfully completed, and are abandoned to spew away”
Thanks for that, that was my understanding (albeit limited) too but I appreciate the clear confirmation.
I predict that Katherine Deves will be winging her way to America to appear with Trump at his rallies. He’s pivoted away from immigrants on the border (Latinos vote for the Repugs now), and onto his new devil…transgender women in sport:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/05/29/trumps-new-obsession-00035857
Morrison and Deves to America to help Trump?
Socrates
“ Thanks for this and the other threads William, they are very informative.
“There are some articles on the Greens campaigns in Brisbane. Their campaigns were clearly effective and focused on hot button issues for young voters like housing affordability, not just climate change and environment. It is a bit galling for Labor to lose on this issue, since Shorten campaigned on housing reforms (negative gearing) in 2019 and lost, and the problem was caused by Liberals (Costello) not Labor. Nevertheless it is clear the Greens Brisbane campaign machine now is precisely that, and being young and energetic will be a threat in future elections too.”
Agreed, winning 3 seats in Brisbane in arguably the Coalition’s most successful state is no mean feat after never having a lower house seat in QLD prior to 2022. We have a friend in the city with a Greens rep at local, state and now federal level so this is probably no flash in the pan but rather a prudently executed long term campaign.
The coalition do the same thing here and the Twitter mob keep falling for it.
Confessions
“ Although on reflection, perhaps I’m being too uncharitable to the woman. She may well have tried to effect change, but because the Liberal party actively silences women and dismisses their concerns, any efforts by women to force change would’ve been disregarded anyway.”
The young woman perhaps needs to ask herself if her party will really change and whether she might be in the wrong party? A Teal perhaps or better still Labor.
C@T
Yes, Trump is perhaps the worst of the most ugly opportunists.
Curious as to how the Sky After Dark mob were coping with the election result, I tuned in a couple days after Saturday. Unsurprisingly Katherine Deves had several appearances. I suspect she’ll be offered a gig as a regular contributor.
The comments are interesting . Not one wanks on about woke. Many point out driving into buildings pissed is not a good look and that a privileged twat will not be well received in the outer suburbs.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-mp-tim-smith-says-party-should-forget-woke-elites-in-seats-like-his-20220529-p5apdo.html
Confessions @ #8 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 6:54 am
Exactly. And Labor wisely didn’t touch it, except in a tangential way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Morrison ran the Deves stunt for the Repugs and Trump so they could gauge how it played out here in our election. Also for his own advantage if possible. But Australians are smarter and better than that.
Confessions @ #11 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 7:01 am
Yep. And Fox News will have her on too.
I’m starting to agree with you that the party actually isn’t going to change except only marginally. Hearing Morrison say that the election result was just because voters wanted to “change the window dressings” makes me wonder if they’re going to hear anything they don’t want to hear out of the outcome.
Some interesting booth level analysis of the Coalition vote in the AFR today, the big takeaway:
Mr Metcalfe’s main conclusion is that the Coalition is “trending poor”.
“The big takeout is we’re seeing a continuation of the trend in the last federal election where the Coalition’s support base is shifting towards poorer, less skilled, less educated people born in Australia.”
Increasingly the Coalition represents the Australian-born working class, as independents deprive it of its previous base of rich professionals, Mr Metcalfe noted.
“Rich, educated professionals swung 11 to 12 per cent against the Coalition, while the country’s working poor swung only 3 to 4 per cent against them.
“So 20 per cent of polling booths paying the lowest rent, earning the lowest incomes and with the least skills swung 2 to 4 per cent against the government, while the fifth of Australia’s polling booths where such people are the richest saw a 10 to 12 per cent collapse in LNP primary vote.”
And..
“The top 20 per cent of polling booths with the most international citizens [first and second-generation migrants] swung against the Coalition nearly 12 per cent, while most polling booths where the vast majority had third-generation ancestry only suffered a similar swing against them to what Labor endured nationally,” Mr Metcalfe said.
This partly explains the Tasmanian vote, which bucked the national trend to Labor and saw swings to the Coalition.
Mr Metcalfe ran a multivariate analysis that showed that if you were third-generation Australian and lived in either Tasmania or the two territories, you swung to the Coalition 3.5 per cent.
“Put more simply, rich people in big states really turned off the Coalition. Third, mostly Anglo, generations in Tasmania and the territories defied the national trend and went to the LNP.”
In essence, I can’t see the Liberal Party going towards ‘the sensible centre’ if Sky wants to boost this stuff. The Liberals under Dutton may try and convince Australians that where they are at IS the ‘sensible centre’, however, I don’t think Australians will buy it if they do try that. At least not in their old heartland seats. Further out where they are trying to bust the red wall I’m not sure about either because they pushed the issue as hard as any other this election and it didn’t pay dividends. Obviously they think if they just keep pushing it it will pay off in the end, but will it? I don’t believe so.
That ‘overseas born’ swing away from the Coalition tends to validate my point. Morrison was pitching at the new, socially conservative Australians in Labor seats and the results appear to show they didn’t buy what he was trying to sell to them.
C@t: you are probably right about Deves, if she is able to talk of which I’m yet to be convinced. The funny thing about the LNP / Murdochcracy is that they seem far more interested in culture warrior stuff than day to day issues. In Australia we can get het up about peripheral issues but mostly we vote on bread and butter stuff and expect our governments to be proactive and achieve outcomes ( Morrison was piss poor at this). The Murdochcracy especially sky tv seems more interested in the culture stuff and bagging out Joe Biden. I couldn’t give a rat’s about these issues Deves was on about when she wasn’t being shielded by big right wing blokes. I think one of the big differences between us and the US is our attitude to government- they don’t like it and are suspicious of its motives. We rely on government for welfare and Medicare etc. and expect it to deliver which favours the ALP.
Sprocket
This suggests the Coalition are less likely to support the “aspirational Australians” they so often talk about and will aim for the almost socially and economically disadvantaged. How the wheel turns. I suppose they’re playing to their strength, fear.
So if these numbers continue, then the Coalition is heading firmly down the Republican path……the party of poorly educated, low skilled, low socio-economic background, low information voters, and easily influenced by conspiracy theories peddled by sky/fox/murdoch. Morrison was probably right to attempt to target them…..he was maybe 1 or 2 elections too early tho.
“Rich, educated professionals swung 11 to 12 per cent against the Coalition, while the country’s working poor swung only 3 to 4 per cent against them.”
Ummm. A small swing against is a swing to.
Or to put it another way, “the working poor” ( should be a bullshit expression in the Australian context – hopefully Labor will deal with wage theft and labour hire firms ) already voted for a party other than Liberal (the votes where not there to swing) and those in Liberal seats had an option that dealt with their inability to vote Labor because of their self image.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 7:06 am
Not sure some of this analysis is correct, surely some seats have less room to swing due to their starting point. Seats with largest Lib margin prior to election have a greater “potential” to swing.
For all the commentary about how some of the federal results could spell trouble for Andrews in November, with Tim Smith’s antics and the Libs performance in the area at this election, Labor might even be in it to win Kew and other inner seats with no clear independent.
The Lib vote has also collapsed in Hawthorn and Camberwell in the senate, so I suspect Labor is safe there.
I do feel like Broadmeadows will be one to watch though… Feels pretty high risk dropping McGuire.
So we’re seeing a similar phenomenon to the US and other Western democracies where right wing parties increasingly derive their support from lower income and lower education white voters.
I haven’t seen any convincing explanation of why that should be so. In the past elections have often tended to appeal to voters’ economic self interest and in this era we have much larger numbers of lower income voters apparently voting contrary to those interests.
It suggests that either those voters perceive their economic self interest is being promoted by right wing governments, despite all evidence to the contrary, or that they are motivated by other factors – eg cultural issues. Race related issues are said to be an important part of that in the US but they don’t seem nearly as prominent here in terms of political issues. (I’m not suggesting there are not significant racial disparities or issues in Australia, but they seem less prominent in day to day political discourse. )
It makes you think- naive I know – that if progressive political parties were able to craft and deliver a cut through message on economic self interest, that the right wing hold on lower income Anglo voters could be vulnerable. Easy to say, very difficult to pull off.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. We’ve had 50mm of rain here overnight.
David Crowe reckons Anthony Albanese is on course for at least six years in power.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-on-course-for-at-least-six-years-in-power-20220529-p5apdb.html
Anthony Albanese now has a chance to cement Labor as the party of middle Australia, destroy the Liberal party and marginalise the Coalition, but it’s a fleeting opportunity, writes Nicholas Stuart who says the PM has six months to save the country.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7758145/anthony-albanese-has-six-months-to-save-the-country/?cs=14258
A reflective Sean Kelly begins this article with, “Whatever their previous public performance, we offer new prime ministers an act of charity: all is forgiven, or at least forgotten. Perhaps, as leader, they will surprise us. I made this mistake with both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. Many made it with Scott Morrison. In the end, the failures of all three were discernible in their previous actions.” Not a bad read.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/look-to-the-past-to-predict-the-future-for-albanese-20220529-p5apca.html
Barnaby Joyce is fighting to keep his hold on the Nationals’ leadership as a new poll shows three in five Australian voters – or two in five Coalition voters – see him as an electoral weakness, writes Daniel Hurst.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/30/barnaby-joyce-fights-to-stay-on-as-nationals-leader-as-poll-suggests-most-voters-view-him-as-electoral-weakness
A few weeks ago Peter Dutton would have been contemplating, in the event of the Morrison government’s likely defeat, contesting the Liberal leadership against Josh Frydenberg and probably losing, but now, says Michelle Grattan, he’s facing his own “long march”.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-peter-dutton-faces-his-own-long-march-184042
Anthony Albanese’s choice of Speaker will be key to transforming our testosterone-fuelled parliament, opines Ellen Fanning.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/29/anthony-albaneses-choice-of-speaker-will-be-key-to-transforming-our-testosterone-fuelled-parliament
Albanese wants to ‘change the way’ we do politics in Australia, writes Ariadne Vroman who lays out four ways to do it. I don’t think they will happen, though.
https://theconversation.com/albanese-wants-to-change-the-way-we-do-politics-in-australia-here-are-4-ways-to-do-it-183227
“Given the strong links between economics and politics, does it surprise anyone that as the two sides of politics – the “duopoly” of Labor and the Coalition – become more similar more people set up fringe parties, and more people vote for them?”, asks Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-political-duopoly-is-losing-market-share-20220527-p5aoxp.html
It will take much more than surprise, surprise post-election announcements of the dire budget outlook to properly repair Australia’s tattered fiscal policy, warns the SFR’s editorial which basically blames Labor for every bit of our economic woe.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-must-reverse-engineer-a-mandate-for-fiscal-repair-20220526-p5aor2
Women will be promoted to key roles across the federal government in a series of Labor factional meetings today that are expected to confirm Clare O’Neil from Victoria and Jenny McAllister from NSW as likely cabinet ministers, write David Crowe and Lisa Visentin.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-set-to-promote-women-to-key-roles-in-cabinet-20220529-p5apbg.html
Meanwhile, the Liberal Melbourne city councillor tells us why the Liberal Party doesn’t need quotas for women.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-liberal-party-doesn-t-need-quotas-for-women-20220529-p5apch.html
Just before ousted Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the election, his Attorney-General Michaelia Cash stacked the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with a host of Liberal Party mates. Political appointments are out of control and the AAT needs to be killed off, writes Greg Barns SC.
https://michaelwest.com.au/shameless-mates-stacking-at-the-administrative-appeals-tribunal/
A Home Affairs contractor alleged to have illegally sent a trove of high-level documents to an unsecured location has been allowed to continue working on classified projects within the public service. The man, who is believed to have sent hundreds of sensitive documents from Department of Home Affairs projects to his personal email address in a serious breach of security protocols, later won a project within the Foreign Affairs Department, The Canberra Times understands.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7754414/home-affairs-intel-bungle-hushed-up-sources-say/?cs=14329
Pacific’s delicate dance with China is fraught with danger, and Australia must reclaim the floor, argues Ben Bohame.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pacific-s-delicate-dance-with-china-is-fraught-with-danger-australia-must-reclaim-the-floor-20220529-p5apcg.html
The Labor government’s new national security team now has an opportunity to bring a greater conceptual thinking to handling China’s new assertiveness, writes historian James Curran.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/diplomacy-is-australia-s-destiny-again-under-albanese-20220526-p5aor4
The prime minister of Fiji has praised Australia’s new foreign minister and taken a swipe at Scott Morrison, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the previous government dropped the ball in its Pacific dealings.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7757254/fiji-pm-takes-veiled-swipe-at-morrison/?cs=27845
Alan Kohler reckons Jim Chalmers needs an inquiry into tax. He says that apart from brief mining booms that lift company tax receipts, governments have never been able to raise enough money from Australian citizens to pay for their spending, which is why debt is pushing one trillion dollars.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/30/tax-inquiry-jim-chalmers-alan-kohler/
NineFax thinks tens of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure projects used by the Coalition to woo voters at the federal election could be axed or wound back as the new government seeks to bring the federal budget under control.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/roads-railways-and-dams-in-firing-line-amid-efforts-to-repair-battered-budget-20220529-p5apbj.html
Australian banks are confident the Albanese government’s climate policies will help unlock more capital to finance the energy transition, and they say a clearer timeline with interim targets en route to net zero emissions will create certainty for investors and opportunities for lenders.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/new-climate-policy-provides-huge-opportunities-for-banks-20220527-p5ap44
Rachel Eddie writes that Victorian Liberal MP Tim Smith, who was sidelined by his party’s leader after crashing his car into the fence of a Hawthorn home while drunk last year, has said he still wants a future in politics but that his party should abandon inner-city seats like his own and focus on outer suburbs. Smith says the party should forget ‘woke elites’ in seats like his.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-mp-tim-smith-says-party-should-forget-woke-elites-in-seats-like-his-20220529-p5apdo.html
The Health Services Union is launching legal action to stop aged care operators from hiring outsourced catering staff on hospitality awards and effectively cutting their wages.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/union-launches-legal-action-over-slashed-aged-care-wages-20220529-p5apc2
There is a tsunami of poverty-related issues and draconian laws swamping offenders and filling prisons, yet we continue with the punitive penal estate despite its failure, writes Gerry Georgatos.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-poor-are-filling-our-prisons-because-we-leave-them-behind,16406
The number of young doctors choosing to specialise in general practice has fallen to its lowest in more than five years, a trend doctors warn will push primary care further towards the brink of collapse, writes Lucy Carroll.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/gp-drought-young-docs-avoid-general-practice-as-system-on-brink-of-collapse-20220520-p5an8a.html
The current high approval rate for offshore VET sector student applications from Nepal could raise more risk of colleges focused on selling “work visas” rather than education, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/student-visas-little-more-than-unsponsored-work-permits,16410
Will News Corp change its approach after Labor’s election win? Not if the US example is anything to go by, writes Rodney Tiffen.
https://theconversation.com/will-news-corp-change-its-approach-after-labors-election-win-not-if-the-us-example-is-anything-to-go-by-183650
The AFR tells us that the country’s largest electricity generator is set to scrap its proposed demerger after a relentless campaign by its largest shareholder, Mike Cannon-Brookes.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/agl-in-crisis-as-split-set-to-be-scrapped-20220529-p5apdt
In six weeks of electioneering, and despite the election result, Australian politicians did not dare and appear unlikely to dare to condemn the Israeli government’s continued abuse of Palestinians, writes Stuart Rees who says that this represents a challenge for new MPs.
https://johnmenadue.com/stuart-rees-scared-to-mention-palestinians-lives-israels-brutalities-a-challenge-for-new-mps/
As the shooting at Robb Elementary unfolded, trained police officers fell back and cowered, while a killer with a weapon of mass destruction went about his malevolent business for 80 minutes. This is American gun logic, taken to the extreme, writes Bill Wyman.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-the-good-guys-don-t-show-up-great-american-myth-evaporates-in-uvalde-20220529-p5apce.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Meghan Herbert
Matt Golding
Joe Benke
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
@Socrates
The other issue bubbling away in Brisbane was aircraft noise. The Greens listened to people’s concerns and promised curfews and more flights directed over the bay. The majors promised community forums.
But yes galling that Labor lost ground to Greens on housing and climate. Shorten’s 2019 platform most likely would have been far more popular in 2022, at least in inner Brisbane.
I’m in Ocean shores NSW at the moment where sky tv is on free to air. Is this part of the strategy to get an audience out here in the regions and create resentment of the city elites? This doesn’t work here so much with long term ALP member but greens at state level. I know the regional areas like Bundaberg, Rocky, Mackay are very susceptible though and voting patterns might bear this out. The LNP manages to find dead eyed dills in cowboy hats to run in seats like these . Could their strategy be to knit together a majority based on regional resentment and maybe conservative ethnic groups on the edges of Syd. and Melb ? easier said than done because I’m sure ignorance and racism or at least xenophobia would be part of regionals Qlders beef with the city elites. Also the main difference in the USA seems to be woke AOC left vs blue collar racist white right, on most economic issues the Dems don’t seem so left. ALP here is not that interested in prosecuting the divisive stuff, more interested in maintaining Medicare and looking after workers of all backgrounds and persuasions. The greens are more your AOC types which is great for Labor.
I just want to know the HOW, will The Greens deliver on their promises to inner city Brisbane?
I know the regional areas like Bundaberg, Rocky, Mackay are very susceptible though and voting patterns might bear this out. The LNP manages to find dead eyed dills in cowboy hats to run in seats like these . Could their strategy be to knit together a majority based on regional resentment and maybe conservative ethnic groups on the edges of Syd. and Melb ?
It sure is looking that way to me.
“Coalition MP Stuart Robert warns Labor’s spending will put Australia’s triple-A credit rating at risk.” – AFR
I guess Stuart Robert is going to be the new Shadow Treasurer, he was assistant
bug1 @ #32 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 7:45 am
Someone should remind Robert how much the Coalition were willing to spend in order to buy votes. How about we start with that dam for Bob Katter and go on from there?
I think Michael Sukkar will be Shadow Treasurer, btw.
c@t: ” I wouldn’t be surprised if Morrison ran the Deves stunt for the Repugs and Trump so they could gauge how it played out here in our election.”
Transgender is only a boutique issue for the US far right: way behind guns, abortion, border control and other race-related issues, and, for any candidate who wants Trump’s support, an unwavering belief that the 2020 election was “stolen.”
Much appreciation BK!
I might add that the US right suspects (with good cause) that Australian right-wing politicians are likely to be monarchists: something that doesn’t go down too well with the gun-toting, bible bashing mob.
It’s why Tony Abbott has been given speaking opportunities and sinecures by the UK right, but has made relatively little impact in the US.
meher baba @ #34 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 7:49 am
Read the excerpt from the Ryan Lizza article in Politico that I put up earlier and get back to me.
isnt she a staffer to a former minister evry one coming out now but apart from mat kean had litel to say against morrison before election
@C@tmomma
I don’t know how the Greens will deliver for inner Brisbane. If Labor scrape home to 76 seats they can ignore the Greens in the HoR but still need their support in the Senate. I suppose Bandt and the Greens are a single negotiating point to both deliver a comfortable majority in the house and get over the line in the senate. But will Brisbane-specifc issues like flood mitigation and aircraft noise be on the negotiating table when Bandt sits down with Albanese? I don’t know.
Sproket@7:06
Thats the most horrible table ive seen served up for while.
Color coding represents swing against lib, and they using red, ALP colors to represent a high swing against Libs, that has probably half gone to Teals.
Then they have separate tables for High and Low Socioeconomic quintiles each with its own scale of 1 to 5.
So is a low quintile ranking in the High Socioeconomic table closest to the low quintile ranking in the Low Socioeconomic table ?
At least they used words as well…
Re where the Libs need to go now in terms of policy and what we might describe (by borrowing a military term) as “posture.”
It’s going to have to be a mixture of re-affirming their right-wing credentials while also strategically embracing a few centrist issues: particularly climate change and a bi-partisan model for an integrity commission (the latter being a position Morrison should have adopted early on, but continued to resist more out of pig-headedness than anything else).
I wouldn’t underestimate Dutton’s ability to bring this off. He’s going to get a lot of help from the direction the global economy seems to be heading. And I think there is still a considerable risk of Labor slipping up on boat people. So any predictions of the Coalition being doomed to spend the next decade or two in the wilderness are a bit premature.
Nevertheless, any sensible punter would have to bet on Albo getting two terms.
“I’m in Ocean shores NSW at the moment where sky tv is on free to air. ” Sky is free to air in the Hunter which I thought was national.
”
sprocket_says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 7:08 am
And..
“The top 20 per cent of polling booths with the most international citizens [first and second-generation migrants] swung against the Coalition nearly 12 per cent, while most polling booths where the vast majority had third-generation ancestry only suffered a similar swing against them to what Labor endured nationally,” Mr Metcalfe said.
This partly explains the Tasmanian vote, which bucked the national trend to Labor and saw swings to the Coalition.
Mr Metcalfe ran a multivariate analysis that showed that if you were third-generation Australian and lived in either Tasmania or the two territories, you swung to the Coalition 3.5 per cent.
“Put more simply, rich people in big states really turned off the Coalition. Third, mostly Anglo, generations in Tasmania and the territories defied the national trend and went to the LNP.”
”
No wonder Morrison was campaigning with emotional issues like Trans-Genders.
So it appears Katherine Deves made an impact in Tasmania and Territories.
Although I don’t have any booth info, based on Metcalf data, IMO, in QLD and Victoria seats where LNP won with tight margins majority issues like ‘Deves’may have saved those seats.
So, IMO, issues like ‘Deves’ was responsible for defeat of Libs in Teal seats, those issues saved Libs in seats where they won with tight margins.
meher baba,
Explain how Labor ‘are likely to slip up on boat people’? They’ve already sent the election day asylum seekers back to Sri Lanka and have publicly claimed, multiple times, that nothing will change under them.
So, instead of making these unsubstantiated statements, clothed as ‘fact’, try explaining the reasoning behind it.
The Lorax @ #39 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 7:56 am
Labor don’t absolutely need The Greens in the Senate either if the Coalition vote with them. The Greens, of course, can again vote with the Coalition to stymie Labor in the Senate, in order to try and get what they want, but do they really think that will be a winning look to their supporters?
It shall be interesting to see whether resistance to FICAC that includes historical actions of parliamentarians in its perview was due to “pig-headedness” or protection.
Ven @ 8.08am,
Good analysis about Tassie and the NT. Probably applies to Queensland as well. It didn’t budge, except to The Greens in the inner city over localised issues.
”
BeaglieBoysays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 7:16 am
So if these numbers continue, then the Coalition is heading firmly down the Republican path……the party of poorly educated, low skilled, low socio-economic background, low information voters, and easily influenced by conspiracy theories peddled by sky/fox/murdoch. Morrison was probably right to attempt to target them…..he was maybe 1 or 2 elections too early tho.
”
+1
No wonder people like Freya and Steey were so excited about ‘Deves’issue because they truly believed it was cutting through issue.
The Clare O’Neil fan club here will be pleased to know that she is likely to be elevated into Cabinet:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-set-to-promote-women-to-key-roles-in-cabinet-20220529-p5apbg.html
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C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 7:42 am
I just want to know the HOW, will The Greens deliver on their promises to inner city Brisbane?
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By holding up vote in Senate?