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There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
It’s done. The nightmare is f*cking over.
Since when has September 2013 to May 2022 been 10 years?
“poroti says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:54 am
Simon Birmingham has put together an op-ed in which he says a swift Liberal comeback is possible, if the party reacts the right way.”
I have been watching Birmingham for some time and, in the complete rabble that the Liberal party is, he is a smart operator. However, the task to rebuild the Liberal party after this election debacle is going to be far more difficult than Simon believes. The problem, of course, is that the moderate Liberal voters now have the Teals to vote for, and the party has lost a few moderates in parliament. Moreover, the next leader is likely to be Dutton… Good luck trying to move closer to the centre with him.
This is a golden opportunity for Labor, and other Progressives in parliament, to change this country for good. It was clear at this election that we were at a crossroads: Whoever of the major sides of politics lost, it would be a nightmare for them over a longish term. The Coalition lost…. their nightmare has just begun.
I watched election night on ABC.
Only for Antony Green.
It was pathetic.
I used to look forward to each side having 2 experienced pollies constantly getting updates on their phones giving us inside info.
This one wasn’t about the votes but about the ABC ” personalities”. They made it all about themselves…incidentally none of whom I can tolerate.
Unless the personnel and format changes I’m sorry but see you later Antony
Fess
I just finished reading it. It’s exactly what I have observed in my own part of the world. Teachers, health and aged care workers etc. all disliked Morrison and co immensely.
Of course, when I together with my daughter attended the rally last year after the Brittany Higgins saga was exposed etc., the anger towards Morrison and co was palpable.
Not forgetting cutting off support for the universities, including the arts.
It hit every part of Victorian society. Apart from construction of course. Which is male dominated.
Josh Frydenberg and the rest of the Victorian MPs, refused to understand how women especially were given the finger during covid.
Dan Andrews was spot on when he said that Victoria had to go cap in hand to the feds for any assistance and treated like we were foreign aid.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
‘Alpo says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:39 am
“Boerwar says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:22 am
Labor has won a working parliamentary majority in a sullen, angry country. Perhaps more by pure luck than design, Australia has avoided a hung parliament. “…
Luck?…. Have you been asleep for the past 3 years?
The ALP is indeed likely to win a majority, but that’s the result of bloody hard thinking and bloody hard work… The Coalition, on the other hand, failed on both grounds…. and more.
What’s truly interesting is that the three sides of politics that went up at this election: ALP, Teals and Greens are representative of the broad Progressive camp. That’s the final take-home message: Australia has voted Progressive and has rejected Neoliberalism-Conservatism. In my view, that’s clear evidence that a majority of Australians have become De-Moronised (= have learned to vote in support of their own interests, and not against them and in support of the usual media manipulators’ interests).
If the pattern becomes firmly established, we can mark down 2022 as the beginning of some kind of “revolution” (Ozzy-style).’
=====================
‘luck’ was not my comment. I was reporting it.
My point is that Labor will not raise taxes so that the Greens and Teals can indulge their fancies.
Labor inherits an incredibly difficult set of economic circumstances. Increasing deficits above that already planned is simply not on if Labor wants to address inflation.
The tension is this. Neither the Greens nor the Teals care a bit if Labor wears the odium of inflation and/or raised taxes. They get to brag about the wins and Labor gets to carry the can.
It seems to me that one way to deal with this tension is for the Teals and the Greens to itemize offsets to enable their desired increased spends.
This is all in the context that 77% of voters voted FOR parties that promised not to raise taxes and that 88% of Australians voted AGAINST the only party that promised to increase taxes.
The fun bit for the Greens and the Teals was the economic management context-free bullshittery during the campaign. Now comes the hard part: wearing political pain for any changes they accomplish.
Boerwar says:
It seems to me that one way to deal with this tension is for the Teals and the Greens to itemize offsets to enable their desired increased spends.
________
that’s quite easy for the Greens. Gut the ADF!
The Liberals in opposition can guarantee further defeat by their choices but the quality of how Labor governs is much more likely to determine what happens in 2025.
Hopefully if Albo governs well they will pretty much guarantee 2 terms in office. The relationship with the greens and the state of the economy will be fundamental . One Labor has a choice to make on the latter less so.
Cookers? I saw that term recently on a weather blog and assumed it was referring to “kookas” (kookaburras). The Urban dictionary connects it to people who get high on certain illegal substances. Do they vote UAP and One Nation?
It’s interesting that Albo swore by affirmation. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Thanks as ever BK but this should have been part of your cartoon selection
Yep Albo took the affirmation.
So do they call the Robodebt scandal royal commission at 10am then? Or do they wait a few days to get the terms of reference together?
It’s official!
Victoria @ #142 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 9:01 am
He barely gets enough support in his own seat, and wanted to ditch it.
He isn’t popular up here and may have the same result as lawrence springborg when he was lnp leader
Rossmcg at 9:06 am
Orrrr they may believe the gods are celebrating and it’s a noisy party. 🙂
s777
There has been a bit of discussion about using ‘Cookers’ to describe anti-vaxxers – as in peeps who cook their own meth, fry their brains and go fruitloop.
Gallagher sworn in as AG.
BK @ #161 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 9:12 am
And Gallagher was too.
Morrison and co really thought his stunts and verbal diarrhoea was going to do the trick.
Do they not realise that aged care workers who have been under immense pressure during the past two and half years, actually live in the real world.
No amount of words is going to change that.
When did the aged care minister ever do anything tangible to help the sector through this horrible period?
Morrison offered this one off payment as a bribe just in time for the election.
Did he really think he could buy people off so cheaply.
What an offensive fool
That’s how I read it, BK:
Dog’s Brunch:
Saw a few like that when scrutineering last night. Frustratingly, one had a first preference for Labor and zeros in the UAP and One Nation boxes.
Beautiful sunshine over Dunrossil Drive.
In as LOTO.
Out as PM.
Albaneasy as that!
Tried Teals in Wordle this morning
Lucky his dear mum went with Anthony and not Norman.
Confessions
Maybe Albo’s affirmation was an action indicating that he will be governing for ALL people, uniting, not dividing.
Vic:
Being the blokesville party the Liberals and Nationals were tone deaf to the outrage over Higgins and Miller. I couldn’t believe SfM told the protestors they should be thankful they live in a country where they wouldn’t be shot!
Asha says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:24 am
Scott Morrison leaves office as the 12th longest serving Prime Minister of Australia. He reigned for three years and 272 days, just one day longer than John Curtin:
———-
Thanks for the historical perspective Asha. Without tempting fate, it’s not implausible to think Albo could make it no. 8 if he wins reelection in 2025.
Interesting is that the pm spoke to he and the SA Premier, as opposition leaders, speaking frequently and that they resolved to not make the Pandemic a political issue
They supported government responses in the interests of the community and what this (ongoing) Pandemic was imposing on each and every one of us
Meanwhile, in Victoria, based on voting in the Federal election, the Victorian Opposition Leader will lose his seat later this year (and easily)
Other Liberal Party State seats will be similarly lost – in a result replicating WA and SA which States have recently voted
The question I ask is what was the alternative to following the advice of Public Health?
What would the outcome have been for each and every one of us with “learn to live alongside the virus to grow the economy”?
And that the message prior to the development and distribution of vaccines
Look at the impact and disruptions now – and globally including on supply and supply chains – and multiply that across society including the pressures on our health services
The spread of this virus has been interrupted by you and me adhering to the best of public health advice
And it continues to be interrupted
And all that is before we get to those “dying with the virus not because of the virus” as the FORMER pm instructed us
BK:
I hope so!
I didn’t catch which ministry Marles had because the silly ABC commentators were talking over the top of Albo as he announced him. Did anyone else catch it?
The problem for the Liberals is simple.
Their core seats have gone to independents, independents that win are generally pretty impressive people and are hard to unseat.
The mad right seem to think it is about Labor winning, about left and right, that is the least of their problems. The Liberals have lost their core seats, lost their base, they won’t get it back. What they have left can be taken by Labor if they govern competently.
This is not a run of the mill loss.
Lars Von Trier at 7:54 am says:
> Looks like counting in Brisbane will be the difference between a 43% emissions target and a 60% emissions target.
> Fingers crossed the greens get across the line.
I’m uncharacteristically hoping the other way on this race. I live in the electorate and reluctantly voted ALP for the first time in > 20 years. I find there to be something very ‘off’ about Stephen Bates and think he would be weaken, not strengthen, the Greens caucus. I would have fairly happily voted for the Greens candidates in Ryan or Griffith, and very happily have voted for a teal independent candidate of the calibre we have seen elsewhere in this election but no way was I giving my vote to Bates. Feel that the Greens made a very bad choice there and seemingly mostly on a shallow ‘identity politics’ level of thinking, because he sure doesn’t have any cred. on environmental matters.
Fess
That comment remains imprinted in my brain.
DB
LOLs.
Put LABOR in and I got all nothings.
Confessions,
Frednk
It is not the run of the mill loss, and listening to Sam Maiden yesterday morning on Insiders, focussing on the Labor primary vote, was maddening
Marles sworn in as Minister for Employment – for now
And Katy Gallagher gets Finance and Attorney General – also for now. They need some one with authority to sign certain instruments
Penny Wong’s kid looks real cute, and was very happy
What happened to the 2 refugee boats?
@Asha:
“ I imagine those wanting a move to the right are mainly just banking on the Albo government becoming toxic and then being able to get over the line in traditional marginals while ignoring the teal seats. Especially with Dutton as leader, we will likely see Abbott redux, with constant accusations that Labor has sold out to the Teals and Greens and broken their promises on climate policy (whether or not that actually happens) and general hysteria about boats, national security, and “woke” issues.
It could pay off.”
Morning bludgers.
Labor looking good to get 76-78 seats, but to work with the Teals on additional climate change policies, but not an expanded 2030 target. Strong 2035 targets on the other hand? I’d say that would be well and truly on the cards. Greens to fulminate on the sidelines.
I agree with Asha. That’s the Liberal Party’s gambit, I reckon: Project STRENGTH & ‘tough love’. Seek to capitalise on the extremely tough economic times that are rapidly evolving and blame everything on Albo and the ‘weak woke’. It could work.
You’d think that if Labor had selected Tu Le from the local Vietnamese community as the candidate for Fowler, they would surely have held the seat. If Tu Le is available in 2025, that mistake can be rectified. Or maybe there is a popular Fairfield councilor who could be chosen? KK seems to have been pretty deeply unpopular-maybe the American accent? Or memories from her brief period as premier in the final chaotic term of the last NSW Labor government. Andrew Charlton was also a head office drop-in, into marginal Parramatta, and had no worries despite negative media attention, so the Fowler result was certainly a rejection of KK, not just the process of her selection.
The incompetence of the Liberal candidate selection process for Greenway had its reward, with a swing of nearly 10% to Michelle Rowland. Labor won every single booth in the electorate.
I think a theme from this election is declining voter loyalty to a particular party means that candidate selection is going to be very, very important in the future. Which is a very good thing!
Confessions @ #168 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 9:14 am
Perhaps she is AG so she can deal with #Backtobilo and/or the whistleblower prosecutions straight away.
A bit of commentary this morning from a lot of unnamed so-called moderate or modern liberals on how they knew Morrison was beyond awful
But they never did anything about
The trappings of office are compensation for almost anything.
Loved that “miserable ghost” label.
Can just see a cartoon coming out near Christmas.
There’s a pyjama- dressed Dutton, in his nightcap, suffering the visitations of a ghostly Morrison visiting him as The Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present and Future.
Will Morrison stay on in order to fulfill God’s work, or will he move on to serve his Church?
Knowing him, it will be whatever it takes to satisfy his narcissism.
Parramatta Moderate at 9:23 am
I think in many ways it is the other way around. Rather than the voters’ loyalty declining it is the political parties not being loyal to their voters. Hello Teals.
Minister for Employment. Thanks everyone!
Scomos moving van says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:54 am
Scout @ #133 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:53 am
Just listening to Eric Abetz on the local radio who is advocating that the Liberal Party has moved too far to the left, and is full of too many left wing woke liberals!!!
“Surprise surprise he is pushing for Dutton as Opposition Leader
They don’t get it do they.”
No, they really don’t. Probably for the better.
Casey Briggs said Albo is the 31st man to hold the office of PM. He’s actually the 30th man.
Morning all. Seems to me it all might come down to Brisbane to determine whether or not Labor end up with a majority. But even that assumes labor will prevail in Bennelong and Lyons. I don’t think there is a lot of hope for labor in the rest of the seats in doubt – though I note Gilmore is absolute line ball.
Thoughts on Fowler: listening to Dai Le this morning, it occurred to me that there was a massive red flag for labor that they should have seen – even apart from the obvious ‘parachute an entitled outsider’ dynamic. As Dai Le mentioned, the western suburbs were absolutely shafted by the state government during the lockdowns, demonized and subject to heavy handed police enforcement. The contrast to the affluent northern beaches, where double standards were writ large – was not lost on these westerners. And then to have one of these elitists from those very same northern beaches parachuted in, feeling entitled to win the votes of these deeply angry people… well, lets just say the optics were not good.
Re Rowe. I like the change he made to his ICAC ‘dog’ depiction 🙂
If the Government is doing well in the polls in a couple of years, the next election will likely be in about 2½ years, October-November 2024.
The Albanese Labor government has officially begun! It’s difficult to believe. I feel much more positive about it than I did even with the much clearer win in 2007. Though I’m not a Rudd hater, from the moment he became leader and despite his high poll ratings, there was a sense of his self-importance and of his being confected that didn’t sit right with me. Feel much better about Albo.