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There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
Thank you, BK.
Boerwar says:
Labor will not be raising taxes to accommodate the Save the Planet bullshit artists. (Bandt promised to save the planet. He won’s because he can’t. But it runs well with the wet-behind-the-ears-kiddies. So he lies about it.)
_____________
Best thing for the Greens if Labor gets to 76 or 77 actually. That way, when Labor doesn’t do all that much on Climate Change, the Greens will have an even stronger push at Labor seats in 3 years. It’s called the Long March, not the Dash!
Political Nightwatchman @ #76 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:06 am
Thanks! Which state was she elected in?
Alpo:
I’m not very familiar with how things were on the ground in Sydney, but I guess Charlton – a much less divisive and controversial figure than Keneally – was able to win over the locals and overcome the initial resentment about his preselection in a way that Keneally just couldn’t.
Asha @ #100 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:26 am
And they had to do it that way because Scott Morrison recklessly decided to have the election on May 21, instead of May 14, and thus only 4 days before the Quad meeting.
Liberals, you can’t trust a word they say.
Jana Stewart is from Victoria, and was chosen to replace Senator Kitching after her untimely death. Although chosen by the Victorian Parliament to fill the remainder of Senator Kitching’s term she has not yet taken her seat. She has now been re-elected for a term commencing 1 July and will be sworn in with other senators elected on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the new PM’s journey begins:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office
Asha @ #105 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:29 am
He was a local boy made good. Pretty much how everyone in the electorate has aspirations to be.
9.00am at Government House for the swearing in of our new PM
Be there, or be square…
Thanks, Itep! 🙂
Congratulations to Labor for:
1. having the highest ever Indigenous representation in its Partyroom. A truly great achievement
2. being fully committed to implementing the Statement from the Heart.
After nine years of having a government fully committed to dog whistling racism and race bastardization, this is not just a profound relief, it is a moment for hope.
Let the backstabbing begin!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/michael-mccormack-suggests-barnaby-joyces-unpopularity-in-inner-city-contributed-to-coalitions-loss
Evan @ #92 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:21 am
Former WA Policeman of the Year, for his community outreach program, as well.
Now there’s a Malaysian-Australian caucus of two. 😉
“Boerwar says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:22 am
Labor has won a working parliamentary majority in a sullen, angry country. Perhaps more by pure luck than design, Australia has avoided a hung parliament. “…
Luck?…. Have you been asleep for the past 3 years?
The ALP is indeed likely to win a majority, but that’s the result of bloody hard thinking and bloody hard work… The Coalition, on the other hand, failed on both grounds…. and more.
What’s truly interesting is that the three sides of politics that went up at this election: ALP, Teals and Greens are representative of the broad Progressive camp. That’s the final take-home message: Australia has voted Progressive and has rejected Neoliberalism-Conservatism. In my view, that’s clear evidence that a majority of Australians have become De-Moronised (= have learned to vote in support of their own interests, and not against them and in support of the usual media manipulators’ interests).
If the pattern becomes firmly established, we can mark down 2022 as the beginning of some kind of “revolution” (Ozzy-style).
Perhaps Dutton could appoint Morrison as the shadow minister for Women?
The Liberal Party will be contemplating its navel, but all it will see is its arse!
As a former Dolphin trainer he should be in contention for Government Whip.
Comment BK!!
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:31 am
And they had to do it that way because Scott Morrison recklessly decided to have the election on May 21, instead of May 14, and thus only 4 days before the Quad meeting.
Liberals, you can’t trust a word they say.
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Also Morrison himself said , he would not be attending if the Lib/nats were re-elected he would have sent a government offical not a minister
show how useless and incompetent Morrison was
Regarding “miserable ghosts”, up until the 1970s it was standard operating procedures for defeated Prime Ministers to stay on as Opposition Leader. Billy McMahon was the first one kept his seat not to do so. He wanted to continue but lacked party room support. He did however stay in Parliament for several years. Gough served a term as Opposition Leader before leaving Parliament.
Fraser, Hawke and Keating all left Parliament shortly after defeat (in the Party Room or by the voters). Howard lost his seat and retired. Rudd stayed on after being deposed by his party but left shortly after being deposed by the voters, hanging on for a few months to avoid a by-election in the political atmosphere of late 2013. Julia Gillard stayed in Parliament after she was deposed by Rudd and did not contest the election a few months later. Tony Abbott stayed on for four years after his Party Room defeat until he lost his seat.Malcolm Turnbull left promptly after his deposition by Morrison.
Indications are that Morrison will hang on for a bit.
Bridget Archer told PK on Radio National the Liberal Party shouldnt lurch to the right. When asked you she might consider running for deputy leader.
I wouldn’t be writing off neo-liberalism/conservativism just yet.
Picking an idiot like Morrison to lead them may not always be the God-given gift
And I read somewhere that he speaks 10 languages!
Outgoing deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce has hit back at accusations his unpopularity in inner-city seats cost the Coalition at least 19 seats across the country.
Mr Joyce, who leads the Nationals Party, was accused by his predecessor Michael McCormack of being too unpopular for moderate Australians, prompting them to turn towards so-called “teal” independents.
Once-safe blue-ribbon seats like Wentworth, Goldstein and MacKellar have been lost to independents, while outgoing treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s Melbourne-based seat of Kooyong is likely to be lost.
The moderate Liberal whitewash prompted Mr McCormack to tell the Guardian Australia that the Nationals leadership spill last year had marked a turning point against the Coalition.
“The leadership change last year shouldn’t have happened. Whether that influenced the inner-city seats, where I was very popular, and provided a lot of infrastructure as minister, and spent a lot of time in, will be for others to decide,” he told the outlet.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/barnaby-joyce-says-not-his-fault-liberal-party-lost-19-seats/news-story/3555c9f6b8bd07f2a20bcc5ae1261ed4
Boerwar @ #112 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:35 am
Did we ever get backstabbing after the howard defeat?
“Thanks! Which state was she elected in?”
Jana Stewart replaced the late Kimberly Kitching as a senator in Victoria.
Like all ex PMs Howard has grown into his parody. He now looks quite grotesque
Albo is about to be sworn in 🙂
barney says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:48 am
Like all ex PMs Howard has grown into his parody. He now looks quite grotesque
_______
The years are unkind to us all barney.
I know poll bludger analysis has Greens as slight favorites in Brisbane but it was reported in Courier Mail last night they seemed to think Labor would likely prevail.
“While at one point it looked like the Greens were on track to win Brisbane from the LNP, the postal votes were favouring Labor and would likely see the party’s candidate Madonna Jarrett get up.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2022-labor-closes-on-magic-number-as-queensland-seats-in-flux/news-story/3f8270b581dda3af7b76f4dc7761dc2c
Steve:
Billy McMahon actually stayed in parliament for a decade after losing office. He resigned in 1982, a year before Hawke was swept into power, and probably would have stuck around longer if not for the fact that his seat of Lowe was becoming increasingly marginal (he only hung on by about 1% in 1980.) Labor won the ensuing by-election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lowe_by-election
In my opinion, nearly every ex-PM after Fisher and Deakin who stayed on as opposition leader really should have stepped down. Scullin, Chifley, and Whitlam were all spent forces with little political capital left after their election losses, while Fadden was probably justified in sticking around initially once Curtin took office (and he certainly was a better choice than the then-UAP leader, the geriatric Billy Hughes), but ultimately proved an utterly hopeless opposition leader. Menzies is the outlier, having benefited from the utter dearth of leadership contenders in the shattered UAP, Fadden and Hughes’ dismal performances after Menzies was rolled, and the own-goals and industrial strife during Chifley’s final term.
Another great result was the seat of Higgins in Melbourne formerly held by Peter Costello. Now gone to Labor for the first time.
Just listening to Eric Abetz on the local radio who is advocating that the Liberal Party has moved too far to the left, and is full of too many left wing woke liberals!!!
Surprise surprise he is pushing for Dutton as Opposition Leader
Birmingham also made a speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iej6wjh9ORI
Scout @ #133 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:53 am
They don’t get it do they.
“Asha says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:29 am
I’m not very familiar with how things were on the ground in Sydney, but I guess Charlton – a much less divisive and controversial figure than Keneally – was able to win over the locals and overcome the initial resentment about his preselection in a way that Keneally just couldn’t.”
I have lived in Victoria and now in Queensland, but never in NSW, so I can’t judge the “vibe” there towards Keneally, on the ground of her overall political experience in that state. However, we can’t forget the massive hatred of the Coalition and their mates in the media towards Keneally, Wong and Gallagher, for their hard stance against all the crap accumulated by the Coalition in government. When it comes to put together a campaign of hatred the Libs have some experience, and they use anything and anybody to achieve their aim. They failed with Wong and Gallagher, but Keneally represented a very reachable target…. and they got her. Chances are that, with a different candidate, the seat will return to Labor at the next election, and at the same time, it’s unlikely that Keneally will disappear. If she is hated so much by the Liberals, it’s because she has some important talents to offer.
Political Watchman:
I think Labor will just get over the line in Brisbane too. Labor should get a reasonable preference flow from the candidates lower in the count which will likely push them into second and allow a win on Green preferences. The Greens are home and hosed in Ryan and Griffith, however.
I don’t really understand the LNP’s consideration to further lurch rightwards. What is their path to government if it doesn’t include recapturing the teal seats?
I think a lot of this talk of their path running through the outer-city is surely inspired by patterns observed in the US. I am not sure the outer suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney are quite as disenfranchised as the equivalent areas of the US. Labor should have no problem retaining those seats particularly if it seeks to bring *some* manufacturing back.
Also, on the climate change issue and the Greens apparently making promises they can’t keep on climate. I couldn’t disagree more. Australia can do it’s bit, it can be a renewable energy superpower. It won’t save the world, but it’ll be our contribution and we can play a role on the world stage that attempts to bring other countries’ with us along the way.
The fact that blue ribbon liberal seats have been lost all at once to new independents, who were an unknown quantity barely 12 months ago, says everything. The Morrison govt have been the worst.
Despite safe Labor seats in the outer north and west of Melbourne, having swings against them. They were primarily cookers who voted for ON and UAP. Not proud of that fact.
Will they impact votes at the state level in Nov? That remains to be seen.
Swearing in on now.
Vic:
Have a read of this article by Crabbe. It’s very good, and a great assessment of the role women played in the election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978
Unfortunately Dutton is extremely unsimpatico. He may play well in qld, but he will not garner support in other states.
I agree with Erica.
The Liberal Party is far too left wing. It needs a Night of the Long Knives to get rid of its socialist wing. 🙂
“nathsays:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:49 am
barney says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:48 am
Like all ex PMs Howard has grown into his parody. He now looks quite grotesque
_______
The years are unkind to us all barney.”
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indeed they are Nathsays (and in my case exceptionally unkind) but most of us haven’t had to endure the ignominy of countless satirical cartoons parodying our features for all to see and mock.
monika:
I imagine those wanting a move to the right are mainly just banking on the Albo government becoming toxic and then being able to get over the line in traditional marginals while ignoring the teal seats. Especially with Dutton as leader, we will likely see Abbott redux, with constant accusations that Labor has sold out to the Teals and Greens and broken their promises on climate policy (whether or not that actually happens) and general hysteria about boats, national security, and “woke” issues.
It could pay off.
John Howard turns 83 in July. The years are unkind to us all – eventually.
I seem to recall a grand old lady of the screen (Marlene Dietrich?) being asked by a journalist how she felt about turning 80. It’s great, she said, compared to the alternative.
Rakali at 9:01 am
Indeed it is time for the Libs Sky After Dark faction to make its move against those pinko ‘socialists’ in the party. Bring it on.
Re: Howard- the Liberal Party didn’t learn the lesson from the SA state election. They brought him out in the last week of the campaign and it went down like a lead balloon.
As a country looking to emerge from Covid-19, trotting out Howard in his advanced years and trying to use him as a vision for the future really did send the wrong message.
It’s official! Albo is now PM.
Thunderstorms in Perth as Albanese is sworn in.
The religious right might see this as a sign their god is unhappy with WA turfing Morrison and his cronies.
I think it’s just the weather.