Click here for full federal election results updated live.
There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
Cronus : having seen Scomoe at the Hillsong yesterday ( a church he supposedly hadn’t been to in 15 years) I think we will definitely see him in three years maybe accompanied by the Casio organ as at Hillsong touring the seats with some choice cuts from the Bible. I’m sure sky news will be working at turning him into a conservative superhero in the meantime. Hopefully he will up stumps to the Bible belt of America to be with his kith and kin as Australia is not a country dominated by weird religions.
I watched Scott Morrison preaching to the converted at his church yesterday and found it interesting to listen to the passage from the Bible that he chose to read out. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him on the backbench as a result. The passage was all about ‘rising again’. This man is like a demon possessed and won’t stop trying to make what he sees as his manifest destiny to make Australia into a Christian nation with no separation between Church and State, a reality. He’s still relatively young as well.
Of course, Australia has just repudiated him, but he will be scheming and calculating how to recast himself more favourably to serve himself back up to the Australian people. Like Kevin Rudd on steroids!
C@t:
Linda Burney said Labor now has 6 Aboriginal people in the caucus: 3 in the HoR and 3 in the Senate. I can’t figure out who all the Senators are. I get:
HoR: Burney, Reid, Scyrmgour
Senate: Dodson, McCarthy, ???
looks like michael mckormack wants his old job atempted to slighlt re invent himself after losing his job by pusing for net 0 along with chester littleproud or chester would be best option but mckormack has tthe numbers dutton will be a disaster for moderit libs especialy with cash as leader in senate
From yesterday’s developments, it is more likely now that Labor will get to 76 or 77 seats, which will be a huge relief. Perception-wise over the next 3 years, it will greatly help Labor if it does not carry the “minority” tag, and it also retains the capacity to build a strong working majority with support of key legislation from a mix of Greens and independents. Bear in mind that the Liberals will end up with (at best) a number of seats in the low 60s. Combined this will defeat any attempted “instability” narrative.
The count in Brisbane will attract a fair bit of interest over coming days, but if the postal vote trend continues and is matched by a similar trends with absents, Labor should start to pull clear of the Greens in 2nd place and withstand any Green-positive preference flow from the scatter of minor parties.
As always, the late counting will be an endless source of fascination over the next 2 weeks. There may still be a surprise or two!
Prince planet,
Morrison was at his local Evangelical church yesterday, Horizon Church in the Shire.
Confessions @ #53 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 7:49 am
Here’s a list of the Senators:
https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/?filter=sen
Nita Green?
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:34 am
“It looks like the Liberals are going to be the party having to live with a number of MPs being in ultra marginal seat territory (<1%) this time.”
Hurrah! Have you managed to get an well-earned rest after your successful booth activities? I hope you and all the other Bludgers who worked the booths on Saturday are basking in the warm glow of success.
“Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.”
Did Howard make any appearance in Bennelong during the campaign?….. 🙂
Confessions says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:46 am
Cronus:
I hope SfM sits on the backbench whiteanting away at the new Liberal leadership. FWIW Barrie Cassidy thinks that’s what he’ll do, based on the history of ex-PMs who don’t immediately exit parliament.
————
It’s difficult to think of any other reason he’d hang around, especially if he believes that the Lord has called him to his political destiny. Maybe he thinks the optics of throwing in the towel and triggering a by election 48 hours after the real one wouldn’t be great. Committing on election night to hang around and then exiting at the first opportunity is a tried and true path for many defeated leaders.
Looks like counting in Brisbane will be the difference between a 43% emissions target and a 60% emissions target.
Fingers crossed the greens get across the line.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Annabel Crabbe has written one hell of a piece on how Morrison got a huge “Dear John” letter from women on Saturday. She goes to all of the warnings he should have seen and heeded, but ignored.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/election-2022-morrison-women-vote/101089978
Chris Wallace agrees with Crabbe, saying that women who weren’t going to take it any more have changed the face of Australian politics.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/women-who-weren-t-going-to-take-it-any-more-have-changed-the-face-of-australian-politics-20220522-p5anee.html
This election result is a slam-dunk repudiation of Scott Morrison’s cynical attitude towards women voters. The former prime minister took women for granted and, unsurprisingly, they kicked his government out of office, declares Janet Albrechtsen in quite a spit.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/election-2022-women-wreak-revenge-on-cynical-scott-morrison/news-story/a0d4fedbff70281b33ddc3cefd3b1c52
The remarkable rise of teal independents will increase the balance of power of Coalition social conservatives and the prospect of Peter Dutton becoming Liberal leader, says Jennifer Hewett,
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/politics-hath-no-fury-like-women-scorned-20220522-p5aniw
The SMH editorial says that Albanese has won a clear mandate for inclusive but cautious change. It also says all Australians should be proud that our democratic institutions have once again functioned so smoothly and allowed for a seamless and uncontested transfer of power. After the storming of the Capitol in the US in 2021, it is an achievement worth celebrating.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-wins-a-clear-mandate-for-inclusive-but-cautious-change-20220522-p5anj5.html
Stoking fear and hatred held the Coalition in power – finally Australia had enough, writes David Marr who says that for the first time in a decade the logjam to change the country’s politics may be shifting. Marr got a lot off his chest with this contribution.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/stoking-fear-and-hatred-held-the-coalition-in-power-finally-australia-had-enough
Dennis Atkins says that Morrison lost an election he should not have lost. And he still doesn’t get why!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/05/22/morrison-concession-dennis-atkins/
This is a great result. The tired and corrupt Coalition government has been turfed out despite the billions in public money wasted in bribing Australians for their votes, despite the relentless propaganda of the government’s corporate media cronies. Michael West reports on the new era.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-corrupt-coalition-gone-pm-anthony-albanese-confronts-the-immense-challenge-of-repairing-australia/
The Prime Minister elect made a couple of important comments on Saturday night that indicate the early steps he plans to take to begin governing, writes Andrew Podger who looks at the next steps of governing well.
https://johnmenadue.com/next-steps-governing-well-2/
Labor has won a working parliamentary majority in a sullen, angry country. Perhaps more by pure luck than design, Australia has avoided a hung parliament. That’s the good news. But for this Labor government to do us proud, it will have to do something humble. Call the Greens into its fold. There is no alternative in the long term, writes Mark Sawyer.
https://michaelwest.com.au/its-time-time-for-labor-and-the-greens-to-say-yes-to-love/
A powerful committee of five Labor MPs will rule Australia for a week until the government can be sworn in, as Anthony Albanese prepares to travel to Japan, explains David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-do-want-to-change-the-country-albanese-moves-quickly-to-take-power-20220522-p5ang8.html
And Crowe writes that Anthony Albanese must balance expectations with reality. He mentions Albanese’s assertion that he had to appeal to people far beyond the crowd of true believers in front of him at Saturday night’s party celebration.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-must-balance-expectations-with-reality-20220522-p5angb.html
Katherine Murphy tells us how Albanese’s practical pivot on climate paved the way for a Greens surge.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/how-albaneses-practical-pivot-on-climate-paved-the-way-for-a-greens-surge
Ronald Mizen reports that incoming Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said almost out of control inflation was the major challenge facing the economy, and record budget deficits would constrain the new Labor government’s spending capacity.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inflation-almost-out-of-control-says-jim-chalmers-20220522-p5anfm
Anthony Albanese’s federal election win amid teal revolution shows Australians want real change, writes Nicholas Stuart. He says that on Saturday night the mirage Morrison was so energetically building collapsed under the mass of lies and fabrications required to support it.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7748347/let-this-be-the-end-of-the-revolving-door-in-government/?cs=14258
Sean Kelly points to the most important line in Albanese’s victory speech and how it signalled the end of an era. A good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-most-important-line-in-albanese-s-victory-speech-signalled-the-end-of-an-era-20220522-p5aned.html
Barnaby Joyce may refuse to take any blame for the inner-city seats lost by his Coalition colleagues, but political pundits say the Nationals leader has Liberal blood on his hands, writes Jamieson Murphy in The Canberra Times.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7748654/liberal-blood-on-barnabys-hand-as-climate-vote-slaps-coalition/?cs=14329
Michael McCormack has suggested that Barnaby Joyce’s unpopularity in the inner city contributed to the Coalition government’s downfall in climate-conscious electorates. The former Nationals leader, who has not ruled out recontesting the leadership, told Guardian Australia there were “no campaigns against my name and my reputation in inner-city seats” – a clear reference to warnings from independents and Greens that a vote for Liberal moderates was a “vote for Barnaby Joyce”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/michael-mccormack-suggests-barnaby-joyces-unpopularity-in-inner-city-contributed-to-coalitions-loss
Labor’s primary vote in the election fell by just over half of one percent to its lowest level in recent history, but it still won an extraordinary victory in Saturday’s election. It did so mostly because the Liberals (minus the National Party) suffered an even larger fall, its vote dropping by over 4 per cent in its worst ever electoral performance, writes David Solomon.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-continuing-collapse-of-the-primary-vote-of-the-major-parties/
Liberal’s treatment of Brittany Higgins seeded movement that led to end of Scott Morrison’s government, says Jenna Price.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7748097/women-driving-change-the-moment-that-seeded-a-movement/?cs=14329
“Saturday’s route (sic) of Scott Morrison’s Liberals has several explanations but would not have happened without climate” writes Bob Carr who says Saturday’s election has tipped us to the centre-left. He opines that it was only possible because the country boasts a higher civic IQ than Scott Morrison or Barnaby Joyce had calculated.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/on-back-of-urgency-on-climate-australia-is-tipping-centre-left-20220522-p5anen.html\
Mark Kenny opines that Morrison’s ‘great electoral bungle’ leaves the Liberals decimated and heading in the wrong direction. He concludes with, “In a democracy, it’s never a terrible idea to listen to what the voters have just told you. Their message wasn’t hidden at all.”
https://theconversation.com/morrisons-great-electoral-bungle-leaves-the-liberals-decimated-and-heading-in-the-wrong-direction-183596
An election win is a win. But the lack of an operational mandate to deal with Australia’s budget, inflation, productivity, taxation and carbon challenges now becomes Labor’s problem, says the editorial in The Canberra Times.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/small-target-labor-now-needs-a-big-agenda-20220522-p5ane3
Federal Labor is confident of securing enough seats to govern in its own right and avoid having to deal with a crossbench of up to 15 MPs, which is 10 per cent of the House of Representatives, says Phil Coorey who also presents his pick for the Labor ministry.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-shoots-for-majority-as-climate-pressure-builds-20220522-p5aner
Frank Bongiorno says that Albanese has won with a modest program – but the times may well suit him.
https://theconversation.com/albanese-wins-with-a-modest-program-but-the-times-may-well-suit-him-182521
Australia’s oil and gas industry, as well as fuel standards for motorists, are among sectors slated to face the greatest pressure for change after the election, writes Jacob Greber.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-super-majority-targets-miners-emitters-drivers-20220522-p5anhy
The Coalition, which has weaponised climate change at every election since 2010, found itself for the first time on the receiving end, with brutal consequences, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-s-unorthodox-win-but-change-has-a-green-and-teal-tinge-20220522-p5anes
History tells us women can turn elections: the Liberals should have listened, says Claire Wright.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/22/history-tells-us-women-can-turn-elections-the-liberals-should-have-listened
The Adelaide Advertiser tells us that a furious Liberal MP has said Scott Morrison should have quit before the election, but instead “strapped himself to the Liberal Party like a suicide bomber and blew the whole show up”.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/election-fallout-liberal-mp-says-scomo-should-have-quit-but-instead-blew-the-whole-show-up/news-story/b3e5b31dee0435f836f15d502379e60b?amp
The rout of Scott Morrison goes beyond the defeat of his government. It has left behind a Liberal party that is now a flightless bird. The parliamentary party has had one wing torn asunder, and its path to recovery will be difficult and painful, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-was-routed-by-combination-of-quiet-australians-and-noisy-ones-183600
Amanda Meade begins this article with, “When the Coalition lost government on Saturday night, Sky’s Paul Murray admitted he was “overly emotional” and needed to sleep on the result before analysing what went wrong. But the journalist who campaigned nightly on his TV show to “stop the mad left” winning government was sure of one thing: “The resistance starts here.” For six weeks Murray told his audience the polls were inaccurate, and the Coalition could still win. He had cosy chats with Scott Morrison, who chose to appear on his program rather than the ABC during the election campaign.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/in-shock-and-anger-over-liberal-defeat-sky-news-commentators-urge-party-to-shift-right
Sandgropers again bucked the national trend, but this time swung hard towards Labor and Anthony Albanese. That road was cleared, graded, paved and marked by Mark McGowan, says Gareth Parker.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-road-to-the-lodge-was-paved-by-mark-mcgowan-20220522-p5ani6.html
Rachel Clun tells us that Australia’s incoming Indigenous Affairs Minister, Linda Burney, hopes the country can have a referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament as soon as May next year and says it will be an immediate priority of the Labor government.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/this-will-change-australia-linda-burney-says-labor-committed-to-indigenous-voice-20220522-p5aneo.html
Simon Birmingham has put together an op-ed in which he says a swift Liberal comeback is possible, if the party reacts the right way. Good luck with that, Simon!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-swift-liberal-comeback-is-possible-if-we-react-the-right-way-20220522-p5angh.html
Kathy McGowan has some advice for the new independents – look to the youth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-tip-for-the-new-independents-look-to-the-youth-20220522-p5angi.html
On the face of it, Labor did not do too well in Queensland. But dig a little deeper and it’s not all doom and gloom for Prime Minister-elect Anthony Albanese, writes Cameron Atfield.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-failed-to-gain-seats-in-queensland-but-it-s-not-all-bad-news-for-albo-20220522-p5anfa.html
Shaun Carney warns that Labor can’t afford to sit back and enjoy its winnings in Victoria.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-can-t-afford-to-sit-back-and-enjoy-its-winnings-in-victoria-20220522-p5anfo.html
“And so it came to pass that truth persisted, hope survived, and democracy will be restored. And so, it came to pass on the twenty-first day of May in the year 2021 that the people of Australia decided to end its decade long flirtation with what was a rotten, corrupt government and its lying leader Scott Morrison”, writes John Lord.
https://theaimn.com/and-so-it-came-to-pass/
The Liberal Party faces a fundamental identity crisis. What does it stand for? Who is it appealing to? What is its future? Those who survived Saturday’s disaster are torn over the answers, say Deborah Snow and James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-end-of-certainty-for-the-liberals-20220522-p5anjs.html
Writing about Frydenberg’s state of shock and praise of the PM, Tony Wright says anyone with a pulse knew Morrison’s arrogant behaviour, apparent tolerance for undisguised rorting and failure to enunciate a coherent set of values led to most Australians judging he was no leader worthy of the name.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frydenberg-vanquished-struggles-to-comprehend-the-depth-of-disaster-20220522-p5anhv.html
Peter Dutton will put his name forward to lead the Liberal Party and is the strong favourite to win majority support, but at least two other Liberals, Dan Tehan and Karen Andrews, are said to be weighing their chances and could step into a leadership contest, write James Massola and Anthony Galloway.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-will-run-for-liberal-leader-tehan-and-andrews-consider-tilt-20220522-p5anfs.html
Matthew Knott tells us about the recriminations that are flowing after KK’s defeat in Fowler.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-got-what-we-deserved-recriminations-flow-after-keneally-defeat-20220522-p5ango.html
Ross Gittins can’t see any major differences between Australia’s economic management over the next three by the Coalition (if it won) or Labor, but he does say, “One we can hope for is that the new government won’t be playing favourites and enemies like Morrison did.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-having-labor-in-charge-shouldn-t-be-your-biggest-fear-20220522-p5anfc.html
Sean Eslake has some advice on how Labor should manage the economy in the stormy seas ahead.
https://theconversation.com/a-new-dawn-over-stormy-seas-how-labor-should-manage-the-economy-183518
After being derided for getting the 2019 election result wrong the public opinion polls have made a comeback, writes Matt Wade. All major national published polls correctly predicted a Labor victory and their two-party preferred projections were close to the actual voting patterns in the 2022 election after two thirds of the national vote had been counted.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-much-better-cycle-this-time-the-polls-make-a-comeback-20220522-p5angs.html
Labor has a huge health agenda ahead of it. Stephen Duckett tells us what policies we should expect.
https://theconversation.com/labor-has-a-huge-health-agenda-ahead-of-it-what-policies-should-we-expect-182764
Rachel Clun tells us about Albo’s partner, Jodie Haydon who has been thrust into the spotlight.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-jodie-haydon-anthony-albanese-s-partner-thrust-into-the-spotlight-20220522-p5anez.html
Climate polluter Woodside is building its business strategy around the absurd notion that the very thing driving the climate crisis should continue as part of the emergency response, writes David Ritter.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/woodsides-fossil-fuel-focus-could-push-our-climate-over-the-edge,16388
The construction industry is most at risk from financially distressed companies that have been lurching around after being propped up by government stimulus, explains Sarah Danckert. She says Industry experts are warning the number of company collapses this year is expected to jump significantly as businesses face inflationary pressures, supply chain constraints and labour shortages. As the pandemic support programs come to an end, there are fears that these collapses will also cause significant stress for other businesses.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/contagion-experts-warn-zombie-businesses-will-drive-collapses-20220518-p5amdw.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
John Shakespeare
Mark Knight
Peter Broelman
Joe Benke
Bloody Leak
From the US
C@t:
I’ve already counted McCarthy.
German public radio has an English service.
Their view of the Australian election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TFbKN64Ofw&ab_channel=DWNews
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:51 am
Prince planet,
Morrison was at his local Evangelical church yesterday, Horizon Church in the Shire.”…
Thanking whom?…. For what?….
Following his “miracle” speech in 2019…. should we expect a “sinner contrition” speech from him soon?
Confessions @ #63 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 7:55 am
Yes, I saw that and amended my post to include the list of Senators. 🙂
https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/?filter=sen
C@t:
Linda Burney said Labor now has 6 Aboriginal people in the caucus: 3 in the HoR and 3 in the Senate. I can’t figure out who all the Senators are. I get:
HoR: Burney, Reid, Scyrmgour
Senate: Dodson, McCarthy, ???
Jacinta Price
Thanks BK.
Absolutely love today’s Rowe. Look at SfM with his bulldozer mouth!
Morrison?
It is church work or lurk work in the House, preparing to grind ‘she’ who falsely believes she has destroyed him ‘into the mire on the road’ with the help of the Light of the ‘The Lord’.
He believes this shit! Amazing.
No sane corporate would give him a job. His track record is consistently destructive to the people around him and to organizations, let alone to their outcomes. Did he thank the people he destroyed in the election in his concession speech?
A minor point of interest is whether Dutton sees any use in giving Morrison any oxygen at all or leaves him to pray on the backbench. My suggestion would be to give him a junior ministry as Shadow Spokesperson for Emergency Services.
Scott Morrison to become a “miserable ghost”?
Jacinta Price is CLP not Labor.
Confessions says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:46 am
Cronus:
“I hope SfM sits on the backbench whiteanting away at the new Liberal leadership. FWIW Barrie Cassidy thinks that’s what he’ll do, based on the history of ex-PMs who don’t immediately exit parliament.”
Good, that will make the Libs job all the more difficult. Sounds like Karma to me. I’m sure Dutton will be delighted ………..not.
Cronus @ #58 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 7:52 am
I have had the 2 best sleeps for a long time! 😀
The weather helped, 10 degrees overnight. 😉
I also caught up with a friend of mine yesterday for a wine and a chat. She normally votes Liberal but changed her vote this time to vote for Gordon. She said she’ll be keeping her eye on how much money Labor spends over the next 3 years and if she thinks they’ve spent too much (and I’d sadly include raising the JobSeeker and Pension rate here, plus the cost of building out the electricity grid to accept Renewables), then she’ll change her vote back.
The moral of this story is that Labor needs to move very cautiously so as not to frighten the horses.
“Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:54 am
Looks like counting in Brisbane will be the difference between a 43% emissions target and a 60% emissions target.
Fingers crossed the greens get across the line.”
Lars, haven’t you learned anything from Scomo’s fate?…. Praying, throwing dead cats on tables, crossing fingers, making money fall through holes in old buckets… nothing of that works!
The vote count in Brisbane is ongoing, the margin is shrinking, time will tell. But there is something that we already know: The LNP Trevor Evans has lost his seat!!… It’s the end of Coalition climate change vandalism.
Jana Stewart from Victoria is the 3rd Aboriginal Senator for Labor.
“Linda Burney said Labor now has 6 Aboriginal people in the caucus: 3 in the HoR and 3 in the Senate. I can’t figure out who all the Senators are. I get:
HoR: Burney, Reid, Scyrmgour
Senate: Dodson, McCarthy, ???”
Jana Stewart
Looking at William’s summary above of the state of the counting, it adds up to 15o, not 151. I think it might be one ALP seat short-maybe Macnamara?. Looking at the ABC scoreboard, it has Labor on 72 confirmed seats. Add to that Bennelong, Richmond & Macnamara, which are described as “ALP likely”, and we are up to 75, although Bennelong is much tighter than the other two. That still leaves Deakin, Gilmore and Lyons, with the ALP on 50.7% in Deakin, and the other two being pretty much 50/50. So I think the probability of Labor getting to 76 and majority government is quite high, if the ABC data is correct.
Even if Labor does get majority government, I think they would be smart to develop a close relationship with the teals. It probably won’t happen, but a teal speaker, or even better a teal or two in the ministry, or Jacqui Lambie, I think would be great, to hopefully broaden the base of support for the government and its longevity. Shared power, rather than winner-takes-all.
The reality of the senate numbers makes it inevitable that a relationship with the Greens will need to be maintained too, but Labor needs to keep this relationship to only what is necessary to get legislation passed. The Greens have had a great election, but their crazy economic and security policies are absolute political poison for Labor in its suburban and regional seats, and they need to be kept at arm’s length and away from the levers of power. Now there is broad national support for accelerated action in Australia to achieve net zero, it’s very much in Labor’s interests to be more ambitious in achieving that, which would eventually take away the Greens raison d’etre.
“Steve777 says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:00 am
Scott Morrison to become a “miserable ghost”?”…
Sadly rattling his chains around parliament…. for how long?
The true winner from the election is all voters.
The election showed that a good local candidate matters, parties can’t rely on their name to get a bad candidate over the line.
The liberals had few good news stories out of the election. But holding on to their most marginal seat, and potentially picking up Gilmore were good for them. This is due to Bridget archer (at least in part) and Andrew Constance (entirely).
On the flip side, the liberals showed how bad things can get with the wrong candidate. They will be left with no representation in the act, having lost their senate seat. Because zed seselja was the worst possible choice of candidates in the act. They should have got Elizabeth Lee, or someone else of her calibre.
The captains picks were a bad idea, as we all expected.
And of course all the teal seats. Being a moderate liberal is about more than just going to the moderate parties. You’ve got to do something about it. Like archer or Constance. Not like frydenburg or any of that lot.
And on the labor side, the KK debacle shows that even they are not immune. The labor title is not enough. No more parachuting. Further, there is a warning shot across the bow of every labor MP and senator in a safe seat. I know this is just an anecdote, but the people across from me at a cafe yesterday were happy with the senate results – zed gone, and Katy Gallagher given a wake up call but ultimately returned.
C@T
“ Of course, Australia has just repudiated him, but he will be scheming and calculating how to recast himself more favourably to serve himself back up to the Australian people. Like Kevin Rudd on steroids!”
Yes, Morrison is no doubt certain that we all just made a mistake and that we’ll see the error of our ways soon enough and be begging for his return. Such is the belief of the narcissist. That the man whose actions as PM were so unchristian and uncharitable should return to church as though nothing has happened is little short of amazing.
Re: Dr Gordon Reid.
Thanks C@tmomma, for that information regarding Gordon as a proud Wiradjuri Man.
I know many of my Labor leading friends will be pleased to know that, too.
Thanks BK, another big day of pleasant reading ahead.
Parramatta Moderate says:
it’s very much in Labor’s interests to be more ambitious in achieving that, which would eventually take away the Greens raison d’etre.
____________
Yes don’t worry Labor stooges. The Greens will go away, nothing to worry about. 🙂
Socrates. – Re: Liberal conceding to Teal candidates.
If I’m not mistaken I was certain that I saw Josh Frydenberg & Trent Zimmerman conceding to their respective opponents on saturday night.
Trent Zimmerman was quite polite, gracious and respectful towards Tylia Tink.
nath @ #83 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 8:11 am
Still being rude about Labor supporters, nath. I live in hope that one day you’ll grow up.
Oops sorry, disregard my earlier comment, I didn’t see you were asking for labor people
The potential Liberal party win (retaining their seat) in some of the current close contests brings a mixed bag of news for the Libs: some good ones if they win many/some of those seats, but also bad ones because the degree of marginalisation and ultra-marginalisation of Liberal seats will have increased. At the next election, after Albo and his team have offered facts to be contrasted with the current propaganda and scaremongering of the Coalition and their mates in the media, those marginals are likely to fall too.
“Trent Zimmerman was quite polite, gracious and respectful towards Tylia Tink.”
The North Sydney seat election was very friendly.
Another gang of four, again Labor telling ministers that three ministers are more powerful…this sort of thing just breeds resentment. Not smart, they have not learnt from past mistakes.
The caucus will elect the ministry, and given some people need to be sworn in right away it is practical to only swear in a small number to begin with. I’d personally love it if the ministry was shrunk but it’s never going to happen.
G’day comrades!
2GB in Sydney this morning, Ben Fordham having a major tantrum over the election result, quite hilarious, of course dear old Ben is a Liberal stooge from way back. Ray Hadley later on should be equally as entertaining.
As to the overall result, my bet is Labor gets to 75 at least, and 76 if you add Bennelong, 77 if you added Deakin.
One impressive result from the weekend was Labor winning Tangney, the new Labor MP Sam Lim is quite inspirational, born in Malaysia in extreme poverty, overcame a lot to become a businessman and part time dolphin trainer. An example of how diverse the Labor caucus now is.
Prime ministers before him him have suffered even larger losses however no Prime minister in my memory has overseen a loss with such massive fundamental changes to the nation, particularly regarding women and climate change. And this thanks mostly to his own personal arrogance. Well that’s surely a legacy at least.
Labor has won a working parliamentary majority in a sullen, angry country. Perhaps more by pure luck than design, Australia has avoided a hung parliament. That’s the good news. But for this Labor government to do us proud, it will have to do something humble. Call the Greens into its fold. There is no alternative in the long term, writes Mark Sawyer.
https://michaelwest.com.au/its-time-time-for-labor-and-the-greens-to-say-yes-to-love/
….
And Crowe writes that Anthony Albanese must balance expectations with reality. He mentions Albanese’s assertion that he had to appeal to people far beyond the crowd of true believers in front of him at Saturday night’s party celebration.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-must-balance-expectations-with-reality-20220522-p5angb.html
….
Ronald Mizen reports that incoming Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said almost out of control inflation was the major challenge facing the economy, and record budget deficits would constrain the new Labor government’s spending capacity.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inflation-almost-out-of-control-says-jim-chalmers-20220522-p5anfm
===================================
Labor will not be raising taxes to accommodate the Save the Planet bullshit artists. (Bandt promised to save the planet. He won’s because he can’t. But it runs well with the wet-behind-the-ears-kiddies. So he lies about it.)
If Labor raises taxes over the next three years it would ensure that Labor is defeated at the next election. That is not a problem for the Greens or the Teals, but it is existential for Labor.
77% of Australian voters in this election voted FOR parties that promised not to raise taxes. The Teals left the question open. Smart pollies, the Teals. The ONLY party to promise to raise taxes were the Greens. And 88% of Australians gave their primary vote to someone else.
Labor can’t spend much more than the current deficit which is already generating inflationary pressure. The extra spend was in Labor’s promises during the campaign. And these will be delivered.
Further, the current high deficits are underpinned by large royalties from iron ore and coal exports. The Greens want to destroy the latter altogether.
The interest bill is $22 billion and will inexorably rise both as large deficits increase over forward estimates and as bond sale rates increase.
I guess that the Greens can deal with Labor if they are prepared to identify savings offsets that they will itemize, cost and wear the public political odium of. Part of the actual cost of power is making unpopular decisions… something new the Save the Planeteers?
There may be something in the fossil fuel subsidy space that they can land on?
I think 75 is more likely than either 76 or 77, but we shall see! If they only get 75 they can think NSW Labor for the Keneally debacle.
Cronus: you are right. I can’t work out my fellow Qlders, I know a guy who’s whole life has been enhanced by the good graces of ALP state and federal government’s yet he would be as likely to vote ON or UAP as ALP. Maybe it’s the weather but people up here don’t seem to care about politics or understand it. How else can you explain Bowman , Bonner, Longman, Petrie staying LNP and the host of extremely mediocre Nats up the coast and don’t even mention the ” Goldy” where they could run Mr Bean in the LNP colours and he’d piss it in, yet the population is dominated by real battlers. The thing I hope for is that maybe the inner city Brisbane thing will radiate outwards. The Bonners, Bowmans, Petries etc are getting on smaller margins so if Albo performs well who knows. But also it can swing violently back to LNP for no known reason. Qld is an enigma wrapped inside a riddle and I was born here.
Scott Morrison leaves office as the 12th longest serving Prime Minister of Australia. He reigned for three years and 272 days, just one day longer than John Curtin:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office
“ I have heard about being marginalised, women being intimidated, women being belittled, women being diminished, and women being objectified. That is not OK.” March 2021
What rock had Morrison been living under that he hadn’t noticed these things all his life? No wonder he didn’t see defeat coming.
“Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:07 am
“…. And on the labor side, the KK debacle shows that even they are not immune. The labor title is not enough. No more parachuting.”….
On the other hand, Andrew Charlton was successfully “parachuted” in Parramatta…. any thought about that?… The “KK debacle” will require a deeper analysis than just focusing on “parachuting”…
Steelydan:
Good lord, they are just waiting for the numbers to be confirmed before the rest of the ministry is sworn in.
Falinski conceeded on the night to Scamps in Mackellar.