Click here for full federal election results updated live.
Sunday updates
4pm. I gather that in seats where the AEC deemed it had picked the wrong candidates for the TCP count, it has picked new candidates and is throwing to those with the postal vote counts it is conducting today. Presumably it will do new TCP counts for the ordinary votes in these seats in due course, but for now the only TCP figures in these seats are for postals.
That at least is the situation in Bradfield, and I’ve rejigged everything for that seat so the page shows whatever results are available from the fresh TCP count rather than the redundant Liberal-versus-Labor one. The independent contender, Nicolette Boele, hasn’t done nearly as well on the postals (13.8%) as the pre-poll (24.6%) and polling booths (23.1%). She has however received nearly three-quarters of the preferences from the postals, which leave her short by around 52-48 if applied to the overall results. However, she will presumably lose further ground as more postals are added.
I’ll now to through all the other seats where I’d have thought this might be happening and will add commentary as I go.
End of election night
A lot more naturally remains to be said, but as was the case with the commentary I offered here last night, I’ll let my results system do the talking and mostly limit myself to explaining what it’s up to. First, I should note that my reading of the national two-party preferred – 52.8-47.2 in favour of Labor – is 1% stronger for Labor than the ABC’s, which is quite a lot closer to Nine’s projection, and I’m not going to pretend you should take my word for it over theirs. I’ll have a closer look at this tomorrow, but given the state of the primary votes and the large number of votes still outstanding, a lot of this is necessarily based on projection.
As you can see at the top of the entry page, I’m currently calling 71 seats for Labor, 46 for the Coalition, two for the Greens, three for independents and one for Katter’s Australian Party. However, this largely reflects the fact that the system is very cautious in making calls in most of the seats where independents and the Greens are looking formidable, for reasons that will be explained shortly.
Bennelong, Gilmore, Deakin, Menzies, Bass, Lyons, Sturt, Lingiari, Moore and — to stretch the elastic a little — Monash, Casey and Dickson are the old-fashioned kind of in doubt, with close races between Labor and Coalition candidates that could go either way on late counting. Projections here are based on comparison of how the votes in so far matched up with the equivalent votes last time, and an assumption that postals, absents and out-of-division pre-polls will record broadly similar swings (there are also a fair few pre-poll voting centres around the place that didn’t complete their counting last night, despite the head start they had for the first time in sorting their envelopes from 4pm).
However, it’s possible that postal votes in particular will behave quite a bit differently this time in swing terms due to a roughly 70% increase in the application rate. If that results in the postal voter pool being more demographically representative, these votes could be less conservative than usual. For the time being though, this is only a hypothesis.
Most of the seats that are listed as in doubt are ones where there is no historic data by which this result can readily be compared with the last, as is the case in the many seats where non-incumbent independents are in the race. My system applies a wider margin of error in these cases, meaning a fairly substantial lead is required before the 99% probability threshold is crossed and the seat is deemed to be called. For example, no human observer doubts that Allegra Spender has defeated Dave Sharma in Wentworth, but my system isn’t all the way there yet.
The AEC has pulled its two-candidate preferred counts in 15 seats where it deems it picked the wrong candidates, although it seems this hasn’t caused the results to disappear from my pages, which I believe is a happy accident. My two-party projections in these seats work off my estimates of how preferences will flow to the candidates deemed likely to finish first and second. There are a few here that warrant explanation or discussion:
Brisbane. While it is clear LNP member Trevor Evans will lose this seat, it is not clear to whom he will lose out of the Labor and the Greens candidates. The AEC conducted a traditional two-candidate count between the major party candidates, but has discontinued it because Labor is running third. However, it’s far from clear that it won’t prove to have had it right the first time after all the votes are in. There would not be much point in a fresh two-candidate count here as it is already clear who would win between the Greens and the LNP. It would be more instructive to determine how many preferences from the minor candidates are going to Labor and how many to the Greens. Most likely we will not be sure of the result here until the full preference distribution is conducted, which can’t happen until all the votes are in.
Griffith. Here too Labor is running third, but in this case it’s the Greens first and LNP second rather than vice-versa. Labor’s Terri Butler could theoretically make it over the line on preferences if she moved in to second, but the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences to the LNP are likely to put paid to that.
Ryan. My projection of a 52.6% Greens two-party vote over the LNP is based on an estimated 85-15 split of Labor preferences, which the ABC seemingly expects to be even wider, because it has it at 53.7-46.3.
Macnamara. Labor, the Greens and the Liberals are very close on the primary vote, and to the extent that the Liberals are slightly behind, I’m projecting them to make up most of the gap on late counting. So any three of them might end up being excluded before the final count. I would have thought Labor would win on either scenario where it clears this hurdle, since Liberal preferences favour them over the Greens fairly solidly when they direct their preferences that way. However, the ABC is projecting a lineball Labor-Greens result, so perhaps I’m wrong. If so, a fresh two-candidate count between Labor and the Greens would be instructive, but it would only apply if the Liberals did indeed go out before either of them. Certainly the Greens will win if it’s Labor that gets excluded.
Cowper. Independent Caz Heise landed well clear of Labor, and with Nationals member Pat Conaghan well short of a majority at 40.4%, my projection is that she will take it right up to him after preferences. We will need a two-candidate count to see exactly how accurate that is, which presumably the AEC will be forthcoming with fairly shortly – perhaps as soon as today.
Bradfield. A similar story here, with yet another independent, Nicolette Boele, outpolling Labor to finish a clear second, while Liberal member Paul Fletcher is on less of the primary vote than he would like. My preference estimates suggest Boele won’t quite get there, but here too we will need a new two-candidate count to see if I am right.
Now for a very quick look at the Senate before I collapse altogether. It seems to me there is a fairly strong possibility of what Labor would regard as a rather happy result where they and the Greens between them have half the numbers, and can get the extra votes needed to pass legislation from two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators or ACT independent David Pocock. Each of the six states seem to be looking at results where the first five seats have gone two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, with the last seat up for grabs. To deal with the latter situation in turn:
New South Wales. Most likely a third seat for the Coalition in New South Wales, unless right-wing preferences lock in strongly behind One Nation.
Victoria. Probably the United Australia Party unless preferences flow strongly to Legalise Cannabis, a possibility I hope to be able to shed more light on after running an analysis on past ballot paper data.
Queensland. Probably Pauline Hanson but possibly Legalise Cannabis, who have been something of a surprise packet across all Senate races but particularly here at 6.7%. Neither Clive Palmer nor Campbell Newman are in contention.
Western Australia. The strongest possibility would seem to be a third seat for Labor, something it has never managed before in Western Australia and indeed hasn’t managed anywhere at a half-Senate election since 2010. However, I will also investigate the possibility that One Nation and Legalise Cannabis might be in contention instead.
South Australia. Very likely One Nation’s Jennifer Game, whose daughter Sarah Game won the party’s seat in the state Legislative Council in March, and has quickly emerged as something of a surprise packet. Out of contention is Nick Xenophon, whose “Group O” managed only 2.7%.
Tasmania. A second seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network, whose Tammy Terrell is on 8.1%, almost matching the 8.3% the party managed with Lambie at the top of the ticket in 2019.
Then there’s the Australian Capital Territory, where in yet another triumph for teal independence, David Pocock seems assured of unseating conservative Liberal Zed Seselja. The ABC projection says otherwise, but it seems to me that Seselja will assuredly be buried by the flow of preferences to Pocock from the Greens and Kim Rubenstein.
What a beautiful photo of Dr Monique Ryan, the new Member for Kooyong:
“Frydenberg, vanquished, struggles to comprehend the depth of disaster”
Frydenberg is just an unintelligent person, and totally out of his depth.
Re tactical voting by Labor supporters. Whether they also tactically voted for an Ind last time or not, there are still ALP supporters. And they would identify as such to pollsters. So when assessing the underlying ALP vote we should add say 15 seats @ 10% = +1% nationally.
ALP last polls were 34-35 ish . Current count is 32.8. +1 one not far off
LNP were 35-36, so about right
Lars Von Trier @ #1623 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 10:15 pm
I didn’t count those, though. I specifically only counted the ones that didn’t already own their seat, because those seats are different.
No worries C@tmomma. I’ll slink off again. Ciao
Guardian have labor at 73 now
Honest Bastard @ #1648 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 10:42 pm
Contrary to appearances based on existing parties, there’s actually nothing that establishes that parties must be a group of people that all agree to vote the same way, etc.
I’m not suggesting that they become the equivalent of the Liberal party, with formal rules around how MPs will vote, select candidates, etc. Rather, I’m suggesting that they would have a common formal branding, and a loose agreement around certain things. In other words, a bloc, rather than an ideological party.
Herald sun giving labor 76 seats.
I listened to an hour of skynews (free on iheart radio) – panel discussion about the election.
[someone has to do this – and I was also doing some paperwork at the time]
Their consensus view (except for a woman ?Linda Scott who is a local Labor councillor and head of the Australian Local Government Association – the others were Murray, Bolt, Bernardi, Bronwyn Bishop) was – drum roll ……
The Liberals need to get rid of all their remaining moderates and any remaining moderate policies, go to their ‘traditional’ values and base even if it means losing all their inner suburban city seats.
Specifically they need to back coal/nuclear power and ditch any climate policy targets.
On that, this is quite funny (if disturbing)
https://theshot.net.au/general-news/i-watched-all-of-sky-after-darks-election-coverage-and-have-some-fucking-concerns/
Did those in our vehicle manufacture industry cry in public when the government closed down that industry and they no longer had jobs?
In fact employees are retrenched day in and day out (including because business goes belly up)
And when public companies such as our banks announce they are to “reduce human capacity” their Share price goes up
What privileged pratts the likes of Wilson, Morrison, Sharma and Frydenberg are
Meanwhile our pm comes with the background he comes from
Two things for me to be pleased about regarding this election:
1. The Good Guys won.
2. For the first time in ages, the local candidate that I voted for actually won.
Alpo says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 10:31 pm
“davesays:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 10:17 pm
“I am convinced that a large proportion of voters were far more tuned onto what matters in real life this time around, than on spin, propaganda and other assorted idiotic tricks. Presumably, three years of disastrous policies and serious events (e.g. bushfires, pandemic, floods, interest rates, low pay, and more) made people think that their lives wouldn’t improve with spin and daydreaming, and so opted for change.”
+millions of us
There will be about 40 Liberals – including about 14 from the Queensland LNP – in the new Parliament. One of albatrosses they wear around their neck is the National Party. They cannot win with them. They cannot win without them.
The Nationals are to the Liberals as the Greens aspire to be wrt Labor. They should seriously consider dumping the Nationals, who effectively campaigned for the Lite in their safest seats, in much the same way as the Greens also campaign against Labor.
The Liberals would do well to abandon their reactionary/evangelical settings, terminate the coalition with the Nationals and make peace with the Lite. There would be problems in Queensland, but they could revive their prospects everywhere else.
If they want to become a relevant force in the 21st century they will have to do something like this. Of course, without a supine Liberal Party to exploit, the Nationals will eventually wither away.
I DON’T HOLD A HOSE MATE
nath at 8.16 re manufacturing batteries (and re-examining car making) here…
Earlier posters with, you know, some technical knowledge, have explained that battery manufacture is not a low-skill process. Australia is a high-skill, high-cost labour market, so a higher-skill, largely automated battery manufacturer on the doorstep of extensive rare earth deposits has an ability to be highly competitive globally.
Re your so-called car making ‘black hole’: what were the extent of govt subsidies to car makers? Hundreds of millions per year. Shall we compare this magnitude to the enormous subsidies (like diesel rebate) given to miners.
If you don’t want subsidies, be consistent. Call for an end to diesel rebates, health insurance rebates etc etc. They all prop up private enterprise – and they all cost way more than supporting the car-makers ever did.
Supporting car makers enhanced workforce skills, generated employment, stimulated allied industries (a multiplier effect) and increased tax revenues.
Steve777 @ #1658 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 11:02 pm
Steve777,
Finally your home and your political home are one. Kylea Tink isn’t Labor but she’s a vast improvement.
From The Australian landing page:
”Anthony Albanese will be sworn in as prime minister on Monday [May 23], pledging to implement the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full and take tougher action on climate change.”
EDIT: the Australian has Labor on 76 seats. So do we believe it!
Well FMD.
The Greens have very likely won Ryan off the Liberals.
Greens must be tree hugging crazies – we all know that are only supposed to be competing against ALP members!
It’s a very lucky thing for Australia that a majority Labor government has been elected, and for their part in this WA Labor’s contribution should recognised. Mark MacGowan has helped deliver Australia from two evils – the corrupt, decadent and incompetent Reactionary Morrison government and the turmoil of a minority replacement.
Snappy Tom @ #1663 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 11:12 pm
Well said. And kind of what I was trying to say myself. 😀
What a response to armageddon level bushfires!
He is so invested in his hillsong rapture he did not care for anyone when half the east coast was on fire!
Flew to Hawaii.
And then backed it up by giving no fucks when the waters filled to almost Noah’s Ark level in the last few months!
This is justice for response to Cobargo and Lismore and the many more climate affected towns, cities and vital ecosystems!
Bludging,
Don’t overhype what a hung parliament would have been like. There won’t be another Abbot / Credlin pair again.
Briefly,
For the first time I can remember WA delivered in spades for the good guys. Thanks to everyone over in the cave. I take back everything I said, and hereby withdraw the permission to secede.
Glen O
I find it difficult to see how the teals could end up becoming the official opposition/Centre-right party of the future. Their appeal is limited to economically conservative but socially progressive seats concentrated in the city centres that don’t vote ALP but want an alternative to the the modern far-right lnp. I can see them becoming like the UK liberal democratic party, a small 3rd force that is the opponent of the tories in seats where labour is not competitive.
Evan @ #1633 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 10:25 pm
Technically, that doesn’t matter. If Butler were to slip ahead in the count, she’d become the MP, irrespective of whether or not she “concedes defeat”. Conceding defeat is just a PR thing.
…
That said, there’s little chance of her winning from here. There’s only two ways for her to win – either she needs to get ahead of the LNP on preferences, or she needs to get ahead of Greens on preferences (with LNP also getting ahead of Greens on preferences).
The postal vote is favouring the LNP over Labor, so it’s making that path harder. And they’d need about 6,000 extra votes compared with the Greens to get ahead of them – with, at best, a little under 20,000 postals left to count, that would require Labor to get 30% more from the postals than the Greens – the difference in the batch so far is 7%, so, while it’s mathematically possible, it’s not realistically possible.
allin127,
The future is a 4.5 party parliament,
Labor,
Nationals,
Greens,
Liberal-rump
Teal Caucus (not a party, but a group that meets on issues.)
individualist Independents – wilkie etc
south says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 11:18 pm
Bludging,
Don’t overhype what a hung parliament would have been like. There won’t be another Abbot / Credlin pair again.
We have a “hung” parliament. The Senate has the capacity to disable/defeat Labor. They will do it if they can. This difficulty would be so much worse if Labor were also in a minority in the House.
Don’t know whether many of you remember, but we spent a good bit of time discussing the possibility of a LNP split/fracture over the past few years.
I also remember wondering whether it was just the wishful thinking from a few of us ‘lefties’.
Now it looks like we are witnessing the beginnings.
ratsak says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 11:20 pm
Briefly,
For the first time I can remember WA delivered in spades for the good guys. Thanks to everyone over in the cave. I take back everything I said, and hereby withdraw the permission to secede.
Cheers, Ratsak. WA Labor will send some excellent MPs to Canberra. The new member for Hasluck, Tania Lawrence, will be a great voice for justice and for equality.
Looks like we’ve lost @Senator_Patrick in the SA contest Thank you for all your efforts Rex in exposing the Morrison Government for its lack of transparency and accountability. You will be missed -twitter
A genuine loss and I hope he runs again.
Has Bushfire been released yet?
LOL
Dear voters,
Your job is done. Thank you.
We’ll take the Liberals from here.
Thanks again,
ICAC
allin127 @ #1673 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 11:22 pm
The mistake you’re making is thinking that they’re only in those seats.
The Teal in Cowper, Caz Heise, may win her seat at this election. Cowper is anything but a “city centre” electorate. Teals also had solid showings in Wannon, Calare, and Bradfield, although they won’t win them at this election.
I think the Liberals might be an outside chance of overturning Chaney’s current margin in Curtin if the early postals are any guide – they have broken 51.6% Liberal, 23.9% Chaney, 15.0% Labor, 6.5% Green, 3.0% other (58-42 to Lib 2PP). It probably won’t be overturned – no absents or provisionals have been counted yet and later postals are likely to be better for Chaney – but I’d expect a further tightening on the current 52.1%-47.9% margin. By my calculation the Libs would need 56% 2PP of an estimated 25,000 votes remaining to win.
C@T
“He sounds like one of those people who plan their whole life out and work diligently towards achieving their goal. Then it goes pear-shaped, due to unforeseen circumstances, and they just can’t handle it.”
They need to do some improv training.
Teals are the LNP’s DLP. Discuss.
Teals do not need to form a party. The current model (obviously) works quite well.
They have the best of both worlds; independent brand and autonomy with organisational support and funding.
GlenO
I love this! Well put together. If I could add anything, it would be:
For the fun of it – here’s my prediction about what might happen in terms of Teals and Liberals in the next 7 years or so:
1. Liberals choose Dutton as leader. Dutton pulls the Liberals firmly to the right.
1a. FICAC starts to take Libs down. By-elections start taking place in the next 2 years. L/NP numbers start to drop into their low-50s
2. Liberal Moderates begin to desert the party within about a year. First one to leave will be Bridget Archer – likely defecting to the Jackie Lambie Network. Some become Teals.
3. Teals start working together as a bloc within 2 years, to the point that they start playing a bit of their own shadow ministry. Teals feel solid in their expansion, with the use of their previous professional network to stay up to date and current with progress and change.
4. More Climate200 candidates get picked in preparation for the 2025 election, pulling votes away from the Greens on some seats.
5. The Teals grow in number further after 2025, and LNP only hold some seats because of strong flows from PHON.
5a. LDP lose traction, UAP dissolve and all flow into PHON.
6. Liberals get into talks with PHON about merging in. Last few Moderates leave the party.
7. Teals coalesce into a formal party in 2026. At this point, they’re bigger than the Nationals, but the Liberals have moved so far right that they reject any thought of working with the Teals… and the Teals refuse to work with the Liberals.
7a. National contemplate never getting into government ever again. Young people in country seats start voting against family tradition, with some to ALP, some to Greens, and others to Teals who pop up. More rusted-on Nats die in the meantime.
8. In 2028, new Teals run against Liberals and Nationals and end up taking even more seats from them.
8a. Greens take 3-5 country seats in places where the local Green worked their butt off over the years.
9. The Teals end up becoming the official opposition.
“Quasar says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 11:35 pm
LOL
Dear voters,
Your job is done. Thank you.
We’ll take the Liberals from here.
Thanks again,
ICAC”
It is a win for the people. Time for ICAC to take out the trash.
NT: 55.5% ALP; 1.3% swing in the 2PP.
The two individual seats are very different stories: Lingiari delivered a 4.23% swing against the ALP (down to 51.23%), and Solomon a 6.13% swing to them (up to 59.21%).
Looks like Solomon is Gosling’s for however long he wants it, and Scrymgour should be able to build her personal vote in Lingiari.
Scrymgour’s main opponent (Damien Ryan, CLP) was 1st on the ballot paper (with Scrymgour 5th), so there may some donkey vote in his numbers, and Lingiari has more than a few dumbfuck rednecks.
Even so the CLP primary vote still fell nearly 2%, and is lower than the ALP’s primary vote despite it falling 7.35% (most of which was probably the previous long-term incumbent Snowden’s personal vote being factored out).
Also worth noting that even with that large fall the ALP primary is still 37.45%, which is well above the national ALP primary.
Greens did well, improving their primary vote by 2.33% to 10.57%.
–––––––
Good national result overall. The scum have been sent packing in no uncertain terms, and the likely make up of the new parliament looks as promising as it has in a long time for sane constructive politics. Plus the Murdoch cesspit seems more diminished today than ever.
Sorry to see Rex Patrick lose.
Congrats to the Greens and Teals for their gains.
I hope the Greens have matured enough to make smart productive compromises in the senate if they end up with the balance of power there.
Can’t honestly say I am feeling particularly high or energised about it all right now. More just exhausted relief.
That said, let our new future begin. 🙂
Quasar at 11:33 pm says:
> Looks like we’ve lost @Senator_Patrick in the SA contest Thank you for all your efforts Rex in exposing the Morrison Government for its lack of transparency and accountability. You will be missed -twitter
That’s a shame. He was good value.
King O’Malley, I think the teals are comparable to the DLP in that they have fundamental differences with the Liberals on social issues but don’t really feel drawn to vote for the opposition. It’ll be interesting to see if this leads to some realignment of well-off, educated voters towards working with Labor.
The teals don’t need, and probably won’t, form a party, at the same time they can work and strategise together in an alliance of sorts to maximise their efficacy in Parliament.
King OMalley: “Teals are the LNP’s DLP. Discuss.”
And they sort of fractured over secularism this time. Go figure.
The scum that is Paul Murray:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/may/12/sky-news-host-paul-murray-in-expletive-laden-anti-labor-tirade-to-audience-before-petter-dutton-interview
Jm “Can’t honestly say I am feeling particularly high or energised about it all right now. More just exhausted relief.
That said, let our new future begin. ”
Exhausted relief, our minds floating around in the clouds that there is no more scomonightmare tonight
And I haven’t said it yet, but thankyou my sand-groper brothers and sisters. You came through this time. You’re still kind of arseholes, but you’re the good sort. I take back most of the things I’ve said about ya.
happyez says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 11:51 pm
GlenO
Given their successes this time, Climate 200 will be thinking about two different things for the next election:
First, they will be trying to make sure they consolidate their gains, which will mean seeking to deliver on their policy goals while also remaining community-based voices; and
Second, they will be thinking of making further gains, which will bring them to consider campaigns in
– Lib-held seats where they narrowly lost this time
– Green-held seats where there is proven support for positive climate change policies
– National-held seats where positive climate change policies could attract significant support
– Labor-held seats in traditionally-Liberal voting domains.
Electoral behaviour is becoming more and more fragmented. This suits Climate 200. They will seek to benefit from and amplify fragmentation/segmentation.
Climate change is real and will not go away. Climate 200 have tried to position themselves to be the outfit that can best respond to and be carried to electoral dominance by this issue. They are disrupters. It should be expected that they will try to do a lot more of it.
There are State elections in Victoria and NSW approaching. Will they try to reproduce their federal efforts in these elections? You’d think they would be tempted.
Pi at 10.08
“GlenO, I just hope they keep the name “Teal”. I think it’s a great party name.”
Maybe we need to workshop TEAL as an acronym…
Transparency
Environment/Economy/Equality
L?
TEEEL?
‘The cubby is being burnt to the ground,
The two elderly Mums have been delivered to nursing homes,
the chooks are being slaughtered,
and Buddy & Charlie are being returned to the animal shelter as we speak.
Everything else will be put though the shredder.’
Twitter
I know Albanese is not moving in to Kirribilli House in the near future but I hope that the Morrisons won’t be taking advantage of a gracious Labor leader. Won’t put anything past him.
Teals; Blue-blood greens. I don’t think they’d argue.
Whilst some in the commentariat talk about Labors Primary vote, the Liberals number are even worse if you take out the Nationals from their vote count.
Liberals have copped at least 4 point drop, Labor is so far looking at about a half a point down.
The Liberals national primary vote is just 23.82 the last I checked!
Even if you add the LNP number from QLD in and Country Liberal, which is kind of dicey because it is a mix of Libs and Nats it is still only 31.64!