Click here for full federal election results updated live.
Sunday updates
4pm. I gather that in seats where the AEC deemed it had picked the wrong candidates for the TCP count, it has picked new candidates and is throwing to those with the postal vote counts it is conducting today. Presumably it will do new TCP counts for the ordinary votes in these seats in due course, but for now the only TCP figures in these seats are for postals.
That at least is the situation in Bradfield, and I’ve rejigged everything for that seat so the page shows whatever results are available from the fresh TCP count rather than the redundant Liberal-versus-Labor one. The independent contender, Nicolette Boele, hasn’t done nearly as well on the postals (13.8%) as the pre-poll (24.6%) and polling booths (23.1%). She has however received nearly three-quarters of the preferences from the postals, which leave her short by around 52-48 if applied to the overall results. However, she will presumably lose further ground as more postals are added.
I’ll now to through all the other seats where I’d have thought this might be happening and will add commentary as I go.
End of election night
A lot more naturally remains to be said, but as was the case with the commentary I offered here last night, I’ll let my results system do the talking and mostly limit myself to explaining what it’s up to. First, I should note that my reading of the national two-party preferred – 52.8-47.2 in favour of Labor – is 1% stronger for Labor than the ABC’s, which is quite a lot closer to Nine’s projection, and I’m not going to pretend you should take my word for it over theirs. I’ll have a closer look at this tomorrow, but given the state of the primary votes and the large number of votes still outstanding, a lot of this is necessarily based on projection.
As you can see at the top of the entry page, I’m currently calling 71 seats for Labor, 46 for the Coalition, two for the Greens, three for independents and one for Katter’s Australian Party. However, this largely reflects the fact that the system is very cautious in making calls in most of the seats where independents and the Greens are looking formidable, for reasons that will be explained shortly.
Bennelong, Gilmore, Deakin, Menzies, Bass, Lyons, Sturt, Lingiari, Moore and — to stretch the elastic a little — Monash, Casey and Dickson are the old-fashioned kind of in doubt, with close races between Labor and Coalition candidates that could go either way on late counting. Projections here are based on comparison of how the votes in so far matched up with the equivalent votes last time, and an assumption that postals, absents and out-of-division pre-polls will record broadly similar swings (there are also a fair few pre-poll voting centres around the place that didn’t complete their counting last night, despite the head start they had for the first time in sorting their envelopes from 4pm).
However, it’s possible that postal votes in particular will behave quite a bit differently this time in swing terms due to a roughly 70% increase in the application rate. If that results in the postal voter pool being more demographically representative, these votes could be less conservative than usual. For the time being though, this is only a hypothesis.
Most of the seats that are listed as in doubt are ones where there is no historic data by which this result can readily be compared with the last, as is the case in the many seats where non-incumbent independents are in the race. My system applies a wider margin of error in these cases, meaning a fairly substantial lead is required before the 99% probability threshold is crossed and the seat is deemed to be called. For example, no human observer doubts that Allegra Spender has defeated Dave Sharma in Wentworth, but my system isn’t all the way there yet.
The AEC has pulled its two-candidate preferred counts in 15 seats where it deems it picked the wrong candidates, although it seems this hasn’t caused the results to disappear from my pages, which I believe is a happy accident. My two-party projections in these seats work off my estimates of how preferences will flow to the candidates deemed likely to finish first and second. There are a few here that warrant explanation or discussion:
Brisbane. While it is clear LNP member Trevor Evans will lose this seat, it is not clear to whom he will lose out of the Labor and the Greens candidates. The AEC conducted a traditional two-candidate count between the major party candidates, but has discontinued it because Labor is running third. However, it’s far from clear that it won’t prove to have had it right the first time after all the votes are in. There would not be much point in a fresh two-candidate count here as it is already clear who would win between the Greens and the LNP. It would be more instructive to determine how many preferences from the minor candidates are going to Labor and how many to the Greens. Most likely we will not be sure of the result here until the full preference distribution is conducted, which can’t happen until all the votes are in.
Griffith. Here too Labor is running third, but in this case it’s the Greens first and LNP second rather than vice-versa. Labor’s Terri Butler could theoretically make it over the line on preferences if she moved in to second, but the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences to the LNP are likely to put paid to that.
Ryan. My projection of a 52.6% Greens two-party vote over the LNP is based on an estimated 85-15 split of Labor preferences, which the ABC seemingly expects to be even wider, because it has it at 53.7-46.3.
Macnamara. Labor, the Greens and the Liberals are very close on the primary vote, and to the extent that the Liberals are slightly behind, I’m projecting them to make up most of the gap on late counting. So any three of them might end up being excluded before the final count. I would have thought Labor would win on either scenario where it clears this hurdle, since Liberal preferences favour them over the Greens fairly solidly when they direct their preferences that way. However, the ABC is projecting a lineball Labor-Greens result, so perhaps I’m wrong. If so, a fresh two-candidate count between Labor and the Greens would be instructive, but it would only apply if the Liberals did indeed go out before either of them. Certainly the Greens will win if it’s Labor that gets excluded.
Cowper. Independent Caz Heise landed well clear of Labor, and with Nationals member Pat Conaghan well short of a majority at 40.4%, my projection is that she will take it right up to him after preferences. We will need a two-candidate count to see exactly how accurate that is, which presumably the AEC will be forthcoming with fairly shortly – perhaps as soon as today.
Bradfield. A similar story here, with yet another independent, Nicolette Boele, outpolling Labor to finish a clear second, while Liberal member Paul Fletcher is on less of the primary vote than he would like. My preference estimates suggest Boele won’t quite get there, but here too we will need a new two-candidate count to see if I am right.
Now for a very quick look at the Senate before I collapse altogether. It seems to me there is a fairly strong possibility of what Labor would regard as a rather happy result where they and the Greens between them have half the numbers, and can get the extra votes needed to pass legislation from two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators or ACT independent David Pocock. Each of the six states seem to be looking at results where the first five seats have gone two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, with the last seat up for grabs. To deal with the latter situation in turn:
New South Wales. Most likely a third seat for the Coalition in New South Wales, unless right-wing preferences lock in strongly behind One Nation.
Victoria. Probably the United Australia Party unless preferences flow strongly to Legalise Cannabis, a possibility I hope to be able to shed more light on after running an analysis on past ballot paper data.
Queensland. Probably Pauline Hanson but possibly Legalise Cannabis, who have been something of a surprise packet across all Senate races but particularly here at 6.7%. Neither Clive Palmer nor Campbell Newman are in contention.
Western Australia. The strongest possibility would seem to be a third seat for Labor, something it has never managed before in Western Australia and indeed hasn’t managed anywhere at a half-Senate election since 2010. However, I will also investigate the possibility that One Nation and Legalise Cannabis might be in contention instead.
South Australia. Very likely One Nation’s Jennifer Game, whose daughter Sarah Game won the party’s seat in the state Legislative Council in March, and has quickly emerged as something of a surprise packet. Out of contention is Nick Xenophon, whose “Group O” managed only 2.7%.
Tasmania. A second seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network, whose Tammy Terrell is on 8.1%, almost matching the 8.3% the party managed with Lambie at the top of the ticket in 2019.
Then there’s the Australian Capital Territory, where in yet another triumph for teal independence, David Pocock seems assured of unseating conservative Liberal Zed Seselja. The ABC projection says otherwise, but it seems to me that Seselja will assuredly be buried by the flow of preferences to Pocock from the Greens and Kim Rubenstein.
Nathan sounds like a Young Liberal undergraduate.
China’s media welcomes Morrison defeat, cautious on Labor
China’s state-controlled media and key commentators have welcomed Scott Morrison’s election defeat amid early signs that Beijing may be willing to reopen dialogue with Australian officials after freezing out Coalition ministers two years ago.
However, Beijing has not yet officially responded to the election outcome, with propaganda outlets adopting a cautious tone towards Anthony Albanese and warning that a change of government would not automatically reset relations.
‘I am gloating over his fiasco’
Guo Chunmei, an expert on Australian studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said ahead of Saturday’s result she was cautiously optimistic about a turnaround of relations under Labor.
“If the Labor Party comes to power, at least in terms of people-to-people diplomacy and social exchanges, it will bring some potential for China-Australia relations to recover,” she told the China Youth Daily, a Communist Party newspaper.
However, others in China were more pessimistic.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-media-welcomes-morrison-defeat-cautious-on-labor-20220522-p5anh6
Wranslide @ #1592 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 9:32 pm
He sounds like one of those people who plan their whole life out and work diligently towards achieving their goal. Then it goes pear-shaped, due to unforeseen circumstances, and they just can’t handle it.
nath says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 9:11 pm
Terrific. When do the robots start pumping them out? How many can we export?
Read my post, I just told you we have been making batteries here in Australia since 1928. If you want to know the specifics, google it
Blanket criticism. Nolan is running 2nd just in front of nationals.
In suspect the prefs from nationals would lean heavily toward ALP compared to Greens. Greens are anathema to Libs & Nats if we believe their advertising.
Do you have a copy of the Nat’s HTV??
Current figs are messed up bc they likely swapped out green for nat (as 2nd/3rd changed places?)
Firefox was certainly right about the strength of the Greens vote in Brisbane. About the only one to see that coming.
Firefox was wrong about the strength of the Greens vote in Melbourne however. They were never going to win Kooyong with the strength of the ‘teal’ on the ground, nor Higgins.
In Macnamara, the Greens are slowly going backwards with the postal count as there are a lot of Liberal votes in the postals and far fewer Green votes. It may yet turn into a conventional TPP count.
In Richmond the Nats preferenced the Greens last and ALP second
GlenO, it must be said that I did it to elicit a response so we can argue about how many seats the LNP has lost to independents. Framing is a wonderful thing.
King: “Nathan sounds like a Young Liberal undergraduate.”
Nath sounds like a young liberal barista.
Oakeshot Country with those northern NSW votes you would have to think the Greens are going to potentially improve on their NSW showing in the NSW Parliament up there at the expense of the Nats.
On batteries in Australia, there’s also zinc-bromide and vanadium-bromide flow batteries being manufactured in Australia and exported to the world right now.
JESUS SAYS NO TO “ALL PROSPERITY GOSPEL CHARLATANS”
Dandy Murray-Honeydew, you’re not wrong. Redflow has started to get a bit of traction over the past year or so.
https://redflow.com/zbm3-battery
Once the price of lithium gets to a certain point, these become more commecially viable. They also have a different usage profile.
Looking at Richmond the Liberal Democrats did very well. I guess they got a few Liberal voters who got confused by the Nationals.
This another seat where it is not yet clear if it will be a conventional count yet or not.
I think unlikely on mid-north coast but in the Northern Rivers I agree it’s possible but it’s not such a National’s heartland as it was.
Of the 4 seats its currently 2 nats, 1 ALP, 1 Green
Coffs might be interesting with a good candidate
Dandy, there’s something about me quoting information about the RedFlow battery that gets auto-moderated. Not sure what that might be. But yes, there are many other alternatives to lithium that have very different usage profiles.
Oops Sorry! This account has been deleted.
For the fun of it – here’s my prediction about what might happen in terms of Teals and Liberals in the next 7 years or so:
1. Liberals choose Dutton as leader. Dutton pulls the Liberals firmly to the right.
2. Liberal Moderates begin to desert the party within about a year. First one to leave will be Bridget Archer – likely defecting to the Jackie Lambie Network. Some become Teals.
3. Teals start working together as a bloc within 2 years, to the point that they start playing a bit of their own shadow ministry.
4. More Climate200 candidates get picked in preparation for the 2025 election.
5. The Teals grow in number further after 2025, and LNP only hold some seats because of strong flows from PHON.
6. Liberals get into talks with PHON about merging in. Last few Moderates leave the party.
7. Teals coalesce into a formal party in 2026. At this point, they’re bigger than the Nationals, but the Liberals have moved so far right that they reject any thought of working with the Teals… and the Teals refuse to work with the Liberals.
8. In 2028, new Teals run against Liberals and Nationals and end up taking even more seats from them.
9. The Teals end up becoming the official opposition.
WB calculator has the labor count getting 105% per. Flow
GlenO, I just hope they keep the name “Teal”. I think it’s a great party name.
I’m skipping over all the comments on batteries because frankly, while PB is moderately useful for discussion of Australian politics, on all other subjects it’s mostly clueless (in my humble opinion of course).
If you want deep dives into battery technology from someone who does actually know what they’re talking about, then I would recommend this channel :
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw/videos
And the LFP series is a good place to start, as LFP is the key chemistry for massive ramp up of battery production over the next decade and getting away from the supply problems of nickel and cobalt.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyvdbTy3v1d5Ii3abPqXnNnzhyOev2xia
I think the Liberals will break in two, the few moderates left will become independents and join the Teals, Dutton will take the rest to the extreme loony right, egged on by Murdoch journalists and 2GB. Albo wins a 2nd term in 2025
Pi @ #1617 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 10:08 pm
Agreed. I’m undecided whether they should make it a backronym, or go the Greens route and just call themselves “Australian Teals”, or make it a classic name like “Teal Alliance”.
Given my crush on Terri Butler
in Griffith I had a look. Might have been a bit quick to write her off. Only 63% of the vote counted and she only trails the Liberal by 1024 votes {only ?}. IF Butler can draw net gain of 513 votes over the Liberal in the remaining outstanding votes she takes second place and the Libs preferences go boom and she wins. Faint hope I guess, but there’s nothing wrong with dreaming. My OH reckons Covid is trashing my brain !!
https://twitter.com/TByrne75/status/1528314712840368128
Tim Byrne @TByrne75
TFW when you’re completely right, but not in the way you intended… #auspol
Glen)O you cant count a seat like Clark or Warringah for the proposition that Labor votes tactically switched. Presumably if that had happened in Warringah it happened in 2019 already.
“GlenO, I just hope they keep the name “Teal”. I think it’s a great party name.”
Just waiting for the working class duck party now.
Why the Coalition’s ‘leaky bucket’ campaign was such a failure
The Coalition failed to use the power of advertising to shift perceptions, argues a marketing expert who suggests both parties can learn a lot from how the teal independents campaigned.
Adam Ferrier, a consumer psychologist and founder of advertising agency Thinkerbell, says neither party leveraged the power of advertising to help change the minds of conflicted voters, but the Coalition government particularly failed to use advertising on the critical issues of women and climate change.
Mr Ferrier argues the Coalition made the mistake of playing into the rhetoric of how people already saw them “which is negative, bully-boy bulldozers wanting to smash things, and that’s what their communications looked like”.
This was exemplified in the Coalition’s hero piece of communications, the “leaky bucket” campaign which repurposed the old children’s song There’s a Hole in My Bucket to suggest Labor cannot manage money, he said.
Australian National University marketing lecturer Andrew Hughes believes Labor and Anthony Albanese did a better job in balancing the negative and the positive in their communications efforts, especially once pre-polling had opened.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/why-the-coalition-s-leaky-bucket-campaign-was-such-a-failure-20220522-p5anew
@sandman what is it about Butler that floats your boat? Good on the environment?
“GlenO says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 10:06 pm
….9. The Teals end up becoming the official opposition.”
Sorry, Glen, that’s the spot taken by the Greens in Dreamland.
Re Sprocket @8:53. That is totally unhinged. Never watched Sky, it seems to be Sydney commercial talkback radio with pictures. As I recall, that guy (Rowan Dean) used to pop up regularly on The Drum. It looks as though he’s found his niche.
Looking at Richmond the Liberal Democrats did very well. I guess they got a few Liberal voters who got confused by the Nationals.
Liberals for Forests did well there in 2004, IIRC.
At least a few of that crew ended up with the LDP.
Sir Henry Parkes IMO you are spot on regards KK.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 10:21 pm
Re Sprocket @8:53. That is totally unhinged. Never watched Sky, it seems to be Sydney commercial talkback radio with pictures. As I recall, that guy (Rowan Dean) used to pop up regularly on The Drum. It looks as though he’s found his niche.
________________________________________________
Rowan Dean exists? I thought he was a fictional satirical character. That clip is real? OMG.
Sandman: Terri Butler conceded defeat today.
The seat of Brisbane though, Labor will get 2nd there pretty soon and then win the seat on Greens preferences.
Hottest looking men on the Labor side: Gordon Reid, Andrew Charlton, Josh Burns, Matt Keogh
Just reflecting on this election, money makes a big difference. Exhibit A – the Teals, who succeeded where the Australian Democrats and legions of Centre/soft left minor parties and independents failed.
But money needs to be combined with a coherent and compelling message otherwise it’s just flushed down the toilet. Exhibit B – the UAP.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/22/federal-election-live-day-two/comment-page-33/#comment-3920962
Butler would need to get ahead of the LNP on not just primaries but the full 3 candidate preferred (3CP) vote. One Nation and UAP are the only other candidates and their preferences (they collectively have 5.41% of the primaries at time of writing) are likely to favour the LNP.
Oh no, not Terri LOL.
Shame. She struck me as super bright and a potential leader from the female side of the Party, maybe Deputy PM in the future. Dang.
Honest bastard
Thanks for linking the follow up interview with Elisa Choy
“davesays:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 10:17 pm
Why the Coalition’s ‘leaky bucket’ campaign was such a failure”
I agree that the leaky bucket ad was stupid. But, I guess that what really sunk the Libs was that they went straight onto Albo’s attack, hoping to do a “Shorten” on him. But Albo simply isn’t Shorten and, on top of that, I am convinced that a large proportion of voters were far more tuned onto what matters in real life this time around, than on spin, propaganda and other assorted idiotic tricks. Presumably, three years of disastrous policies and serious events (e.g. bushfires, pandemic, floods, interest rates, low pay, and more) made people think that their lives wouldn’t improve with spin and daydreaming, and so opted for change.
Apologies if someone has already posted.
A good one to finish on:
https://youtu.be/7lCinjOhcro
The Leaky Bucket ad was based upon a false premise. Labor CAN manage the national economy. The GFC management by Labor is still fresh enough in people’s minds to have rendered that ad not only supremely annoying but wrong.
*Contains images of people now deceased*
‘From Little Things Big Things Grow
Kev Carmody, Paul Kelly, Clare Bowditch, Missy Higgins, and Dan Sultan
Music of Kev Carmody and Paul Kelly
Recorded at Sydney’s State Theatre
From the DVD Cannot Buy My Soul
buy Uncle Kev’s stuff wherever you can.
http://kevcarmody.com.au/
Videoclip here… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbHR-apIHLU
Time For Truth Telling and Treaty
“Frydenberg, vanquished, struggles to comprehend the depth of disaster”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frydenberg-vanquished-struggles-to-comprehend-the-depth-of-disaster-20220522-p5anhv.html
Thanks for that, Aqualung. 🙂
What’s the story with GoneMo cracking the whip at their shindig at Kirribilli? Are you ok Scott?
Mia Kennedy @Mia__Kennedy
Will the Coalition now go even further to the right?
Barrie Cassidy: “They have a female problem; they have a problem with climate change; they have a problem with integrity; who ya gonna call? Peter Dutton??”
https://twitter.com/Mia__Kennedy/status/1528333148093747200
Given how the greens went from 7.79% in 2007 to 11.76% in 2010 (4% swing), do you think its reasonable to expect the greens to poll 15% in 2025?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-will-run-for-liberal-leader-tehan-and-andrews-consider-tilt-20220522-p5anfs.html
Talk about the Teal independents forming a party shows a rank misunderstanding of their philosophical basis. It has been crucial to their success that they are *not* a party, and I think they all understand that they must never head in that direction. They work by first forming a community organisation that is electorate based and then selecting a high profile candidate that can represent and answer to that community organisation (within the electorate). This is “the voices of” thing. Answering only to a community organisation *within* the electorate is how they stay faithful to representing *that* electorate (how representative democracy is meant to work) with no loyalties elsewhere.
I know it’s campaign material, but Monique Ryan’s “Why I’m independent” page ennunciates this philosophy well I think.
https://www.moniqueryan.com.au/why_im_independent