Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
Industrial Relations anyone?
The reason business (which includes media) support the Coalition as they do
Ashasays:
“Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 7:03 pm
You’re not a soothsayer, Goll. None of us know how this election is going to go. The best we can do is make informed guesses based on polling data, historical precedent, and our own judgement on how things seem to be going.”
Exactly. That’s why I know I’ve got it right.
Goll, that’s a bit harsh – Asha means well.
Anyone catch Ulhmann on 9 giving albo shit for not taking every question, completely ignoring that Morrison takes even less each day. Talk about impartial reporting
Agreed Ray
I hope albo keeps it low key over easter. Watches some footy, releases a few negative adds on facebook and youtube. Easter would be a smart time to go help out in Lismore if he can get up there without getting in the way.
The recent ill-informed rantings about “capital flight” recall a famous line from the film The Princess Bride:
“You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.”
Capital flight refers to these scenarios:
1/ A national government has adopted a fixed exchange rate. That means that the government promises the holders of its currency that it will convert, on demand, its currency into something else (a precious metal or another nation’s currency) at a publicly announced, pre-determined rate of exchange. The government therefore has to be mindful of the risk of lots of holders of its currency deciding to redeem that promise at the same time. That is because the government can run out of the thing that it is promising to convert its currency into. It can’t run out of its own currency but it can run out of the other thing. To avoid that eventuality it may need to offer higher interest rates on domestic currency financial assets and / or lower tax rates to entice holders of its currency to retain their domestic currency assets rather than convert them into the other asset in the fixed exchange regime. Either of these things can be harmful, which is why it is always better for policy flexibility to have a floating exchange rate.
2/ A nation is poor in terms of real resources. Its public infrastructure and public services have major deficiencies. It has a small number of people with high levels of education and skill. It lacks scientific capabilities and technological sophistication. Therefore the nation relies on foreign infusions of knowledge, skills, technology, and equipment to drive domestic research and production. A nation in those circumstances can’t afford to alienate the foreign owners of the real resources that are critical to their survival and development.
It wouldn’t be capital flight if some Australian billionaires like Rinehart, Forrest, and Palmer decided to sell large amounts of their assets. Nearly all of their wealth is tied up in corporate shares. If they sold all their shares in a short space of time all that would happen is that other people and institutions would own those shares instead. It wouldn’t make a difference to living standards and real economic production in Australia. It would almost certainly make the billionaires poorer because dumping all their shares suddenly would tend to depress the share price.
Capital flight isn’t something that Australia has to worry about. Our national government has a high degree of monetary sovereignty because it issues its own currency, allows its currency’s exchange rate to float in foreign exchange markets, and our infrastructure, public services, research capabilities, and workforce quality are good relative to nearly all other nations (albeit with lots of scope to improve).
Watched uhlmann for the first time in years and instantly regretted it.
Watch: https://twitter.com/abc730/status/1514190559774384132
I think Bandt’s performance today was excellent. I also think he helped Albo – there’ll be people who agree with what he said and link this with what happened on Monday.
“Re Citizen @8:13. The next instalment of that story probably goes something like “Solomon Islands tells Australia to get stuffed”.”
All it needs is one politician in the Solomons that is pissed of at Australia for any reason and thats exactly what will happen. 🙂
Agree Mr M
If nothing else it helps out on the hustings when it comes up when volunteers speak to people.
“Yeah look it was bad but then again we’ve all had a brain fade at times haven’t we? Adam Bandt hit the nail on the head though I reckon… Do you want to pass on someone just because they got caught in a gotcha or the guy that anyone that has spent more than 5 minutes with says he’s toxic?”
The perception of Morrison was built over 3 years. A reminder won’t take long for any Albo gaffe spell to be broken.
imacca @ #911 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:22 pm
More likely Solomon Islands offer to cancel treaty if Australia agrees to take action on climate change. Solomon Islands signs treaty.
Here’s an interesting perspective that just occurred to me. So, it may just be the case that, with the election called, the media cleared the slate for both leaders. Then scored them as the cards fell. So Albanese was marked down severely for his gaffe. However, Scott Morrison was also marked down for TudgeGate. He has also been marked down for going to the factory that is going to offshore jobs. Also, the media have even been prepared to discuss PartyGate and thus, themselves. Albanese cutting his press conference short was also a topic of conversation and I heard mention in dispatches that Richard Marles does indeed want to be Defence Minister, over Brendan O’Connor.
So I think, taken as a whole, it seems to me that most in the media are simply doing straight reporting.
I think the problem lies in whether you have siloed yourself into one media ecosphere or another and thus are getting fed what you want to hear, as opposed to a balanced view.
That’s why it’s always important to read, listen and watch widely.
C@tmomma,
OR, I can read and yell at people on twitter, thus increasing the amount of discourse on the internet.
Fear not, the Bluck/Buck identity crisis solved:
1) You’re an ambitious YL, centralised campaign copywriter and or bot gone wrong
2) You’re given a simple brief: highlight ANY grassroots connections you can find…especially in Mayo
3) You bypass the candidate because, well, this lot tend to bang on about community markets, pets and critical services
4) You Google the candidate’s name. And again. And once more on your phone
5) You decide it must be a typo so you try a few different spelling combinations (always one step ahead)
6) Bingo, the trifecta = Kangaroo Island + Environment + Bushfires:
https://www.australiantraveller.com/sa/kangaroo-island/hike-the-kangaroo-island-wilderness-trail/amp/
7) You move on to Indi
8) Also glitchy but you’re on to it. Obviously it’s Sophie, not Greg Mirabella and the Ross Lyman chappie must be the Farrer FEC’s pick because his billboards are up in Albury. Job done 🙂
StuntMo just couldn’t go the day without doing something stupid – strap yourselves in for another 37 days of this.
Late today, he gets smacked in the head by a basketball as he goofs off pretending he is the sporty type…
Scotty will need more that the old media cheerleading to overcome his stale schtick
sprocket_ ,
I got a notification about that when I was walking my dog. She did not know what I as laughing about.
Play to your strength scomo, just get drunk at the footy or something. Actually getting on the field with real balls is like next level dangerous for that slob.
The colour and movement of ScoMo ….
https://twitter.com/samclench/status/1514130085455949826?s=21&t=SzSCJC5pDdmwm5yfjzVh5A
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:03 pm
The recent ill-informed rantings about “capital flight” recall a famous line from the film The Princess Bride:
“You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.”
Capital flight refers to these scenarios:
….’
—————————————
Oh, goodness me. The Greens genuinely think that knocking off 6% per annum from billionaires’ wealth will have NO other impacts than a spot of national wealth distribution. The Greens are sincere, no doubt about it.
People will do what they ALREADY have done in France, Greece, Argentina and Venezuela in similar circumstances.
They will bugger off with what they can transfer. That is called capital flight.
They wills shift corporate HQs. That is called capital flight.
Others who are not yet billionaires will invest outside the country rather than take a punt that the Greens will skin them asap. That is called capital strike.
Those outside the country will think twice before investing in Australia. That is called capital strike.
No brainers except for the Greens who sincerely believe they can simply pluck billionaires like plucking ducks.
‘beguiledagain says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 1.3, 2022 at 5:34 pm
Bandt no longer needs to turn up or to answer any questions of substance.
Easy as.
———————————————————
You still haven’t got it through your head (apparently full of Bandt), that Bandt has produced what will be one of the most memorable lines in recent federal elections.
He also seemed to have brought out the inner-Tory in you.
Bandt’s wonderful put-down of that young prat from the Fin will resonate long after we have both shuffled off this mortal coil. It put the spotlight on the often juvenile tactics of so-called journalists who want to make themselves part of the story instead of being observers.
I’m sure Albo, who will make a great Prime Minister, is now saying: “Why didn’t I think of that.”’
—————————————————-
Hey mate, Google my response.
What frightful people:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-low-steggall-slams-liberal-rival-for-recruiting-ex-husband-s-new-wife-20220413-p5ad52.html
So, ScoMo complains that Albo missed the unemployment figure but a wide margin. Then goes on to talk about the size of the economy having 12 zeros, missing the actual size of the economy by about 19 trillion dollars. A not insubstantial amount.
MSM response to that gaff? Meh. Pass us another tinny ScoMo.
“Hey mate, Google my response”
If only google translated arrogant over confident moron to intelligible human.
Boerwar,
There are ways to stop capital flight. You use the heavy might of regulation and laws.
You could pass laws that say, to own Australian assets you need to be based 51% in Australia for mining operations, or have representation in Australia and that income produced on Australian resources must be paid through an Australian entity.
Secondly, you can make it illegal for Australians and those that do work in Australia to use or employ tax havens. Similar to Counter Terrorism finance laws, you can make it illegal to not report knowledge of hidden money crimes etc. (This is like cleaning up corruption wet dream stuff right here)
Pretty easy to do this btw, it’s a simple law just get a list from the ATO and make those firms illegal, we now have form with individual sanctions against Russians.
Thirdly, get the immigration minister to revoke citizenship’s and cancel passports (which are a privilege not a right thanks to the LNP).
Upnorth:
Close, but I think you’ll find there is slightly more contortion in the posture
E. G. Theodore says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 10:50 pm
Upnorth:
… seems to have many here put their heads in the sand
Close, but I think you’ll find there is slightly more contortion in the posture
You got that right Red Ted.
sprocket_ @ #917 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:59 pm
Is there a remake of Buffy the Vampire Slayer with Morrison as the first “Big Bad” that I’ve missed? Sarah hasn’t aged a day.
In WA the daily toilet paper is going for complete character assassination on Albo. Every move , everything he says, timing of his PCs, whether he farts or not. Stokes is just scum like Murdoch.
Politics tragic. Been following this blog for about 3 months but this is my first post…
Thought so far as an albo supporter. I’m nervous.
But trying to keep positive considering that labour pick up 2-3 in WA, get one in SA and I think one in both tassy and Vic.
Still believe the libs need to pick up seats to counter.
Am I wrong?
southsays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:59 pm
I hope albo keeps it low key over easter. Watches some footy, releases a few negative adds on facebook and youtube. Easter would be a smart time to go help out in Lismore if he can get up there without getting in the way.
___________________________________________________________
Meanwhile Morrison will be doing 18 hour days campaigning in as many seats as he can, meanwhile your guy is keeping it low key watching the footy…hmmm. it sounds like you are already trying to hide him as he is not faring well in the cut and thrust of a campaign.
In all likelihood, this election was over a couple of months ago. The only real question is how much of a majority that the ALP will have. Can a significant event happen that throws that into chaos? Of course. It has happened in the past and it will happen again. This puerile gotcha shit plays out in the press, but most people have already made up their minds.
The fact is, Morrison can’t show his face in public. He has been campaigning for months. Every time he enters an environment that isn’t stage managed he gets egg on his face. That’s the kind of reality that takes years to build, and is not undone in weeks.
To me, the worry is that yes, vast numbers of Australians think Morrison is a bully, a pr&%k, a very nasty piece of work.
But when push comes to shove, in times of great uncertainty, will they figure “the devil we know” and prefer that thoroughly unlikeable person with his many, many faults to be running the joint, rather than the alternative whom they might arguably perceive as potentially incompetent, an unknown, untested, a career politician who hasn’t quite made much of an impression over a long period?
To be clear: I am not saying for a moment Albanese is incompetent, or untested, or that it’s reasonable to regard him as an unknown. It’s all about perceptions. Whatever the fairness or otherwise of the “gotcha” questions on economic data, that has quite possibly made a big impact on perceptions.
It’s obviously reversible and it’s very early days.
Hi H, I think it’s fair to be nervous, I’m not sure Albo is running a very focused campaign so far.
However I think Scomo is broadly disrespected at best, so the bar this election to beat him and his mob is pretty low. I think we’ll see a Labor majority government in the 3-10 seat majority range. Might see another 2 or 3 members on the crossbench as well.
Rebecca Sharkey will be getting worried.
Up against such a quality candidate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-13/liberal-candidate-allison-bluck-apologises-over-identity-claim/100989456
I’m not the only person who thinks this. The important thing is that Morrison thinks it too, and it has not gone unnoticed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mjrowland68/status/1514044404906209282
“Further to the PM’s media drinks incident last night, as my colleague @StephieBorys noted on @BreakfastNews, we haven’t seen much of the PM engaging with the general public so far on the campaign. There’ve been controlled events at businesses, but no streetwalks etc.”
That’s because he knows that the general public despises him. This is not “early days”. The campaign has literally been going for months. And people know that if you want a federal ICAC you’re going to have to vote for the ALP.
@stevedavis The West has been even more feral and anti labor than normal the last 3 months. I haven’t given them a cent in years and stopped even glancing at it whilst at cafes after their 2019 federal election campaign efforts which were a disgrace however still have family that read it. They were pro McGowan in the later parts of 2020 and early 2021 but had no choice due to his insane popularity.
Only thing that gives me comfort is knowing barely anyone under 60 reads it.
What are your thoughts on the WA seats? I think we should get Pearce due to a decent candidate and the fact Porter had gone. Swan and Hasluck have burned us so many times before but I think the former should fall our way hopefully. Not confident of much else though.
H says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 11:27 pm
Politics tragic. Been following this blog for about 3 months but this is my first post…
Thought so far as an albo supporter. I’m nervous.
But trying to keep positive considering that labour pick up 2-3 in WA, get one in SA and I think one in both tassy and Vic.
Still believe the libs need to pick up seats to counter.
Am I wrong?
Your not wrong comrade. We are all nervous. You see we are a rare breed. We actually give a toss about Australia and know only a Labor Government can make Australia a better place for all to live in.
Sure you will see back and forth arguments on PB but I salute all who post here – even the few Tories. I believe Australia is lucky to have one of the most perfect forms of democracy on our planet.
But there are threats to that and one of checks and balances to gross maladministration, the main stream media, are certainly backing the Tories.
The same thing happened for so many years in Queensland when the media, time after time, let Joh and his corrupt cronies get away with robbing the State. The Courier-Mail I think has backed the Nationals and now the LNP in every Queensland State election since I have been alive – except 1989 when Wayne Goss won.
However things have changed somewhat. This is a long campaign. A marathon. Labor started with a good lead because most Australians know that Morrison and his crew are basically incompetent. There is much more Social Media than even three years ago. The truth finds a way of getting out.
Don’t despair. One day does not make an election.
The late great Tom Burns once told me Government’s lose after the “drip drip” of bad news becomes too much for the punters. We have to get the message out that the “drip drips” have become a flood with Morrison.
I believe Labor will win. It won’t be easy – it never is for Labor.
People in WA are not going to forget the part Morrison played during covid attacking McGowan, as long as Palmer exists as a permanent reminder.
In regards the reference to Stokes, remember who knifed Turnbull – and gave us Morrison
Remember also that News Corp made a pay out to Towke courtesy of matters now (again) in the media
Murdoch has backed Morrison from Morrison’s days with the Liberal Party NSW administration (including Baird giving Morrison a job pending Morrison entering the Parliament)
From that time Morrison has been anointed as Liberal Party Leader in the Federal Parliament
And Morrison is obliged to Murdoch – and I would suggest a Murdoch puppet acting in Murdoch’s interests (and by extension Stokes and Costello – so media laws and tax treatments)
Murdoch called in Stokes to knife Turnbull – and then back Morrison
So don’t be surprised by what you read and hear from the Stokes media outlets
They are as thick as thieves
They have a vested interest in Morrison and what he owes them
And the reason Morrison is so confident – he has the media moguls who control him to not only promote him but protect him
Democracy in Australia is fraught
This is going to be a re-run of Trump in America
Trump played every trick in the book courtesy of Murdoch (and other media proprietors)
It took the anti Trump numbers being got out to rid the World of Trump
Except, down to Murdoch, Trump remains a cancer and the undermining of Biden, a decent man, continues unabated
We will get the same in Australia if Labor is successful
Be warned
Further defectors from the Country Liberals join Sam McMahon’s tilt for the Liberal Democrats:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-13/clp-defector-jed-hansen-liberal-democrats/100987542
Few people buy or even read The West anymore, and it’s behind a paywall online. 20 years ago I read it all the time, but rarely do now, it’s influence has been, and is declining. As for WA seat prospects if Labor is to gain a national majority you’d think they’d have to be gaining Swan, Pearce and probably Hasluck. The only other seat where they are seen to be a realistic shot is Tangney but that’s one they’ll only pick up if they do very well. Curtin could also potentially elect a teal.
Martin
Just as you say, I think Pearce is a good chance for Labor gain. Just hope that people see thru the Murdoch/Stokes newspaper for what it is, and I can see Swan and Hasluck being gains as well.
Nice to have some more WA folks on here, particularly ones that share my disgust at 7/West who are absolutely as bad as Murdoch.
Glad that Mark McGowan has been a visible presence in the campaign trail the last few weeks. I hope we have some decent anti Morrison/Palmer adds lined up ready to go.
I am in Tangney and it’s got a lot more attention and money than it normally does from Morton so they must be worried. I’m watching Chaney in Curtin with interest too. Has run a decent campaign but would be a massive effort to win it.
Finland will very likely apply to join NATO within weeks and Sweden likely follow:
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPm5tOn3bj8
Also – Finland’s PM (Ms Marin) gave a speech
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcBYxWAQKSE
Yes I’ve been watching the Curtin contest with a lot of interest as well as I grew up there. Have listened to her and a few other independent candidates on podcasts and they all sounded impressive and authentic to me. I’ve noticed Chaney has had less of a social media presence than other indies, I suspect people are less engaged with social media in WA than they are in the east, but it has sort of dropped off suggesting she doesn’t like her chances.
Agreed MJ. The candidates over east are very slick on the social media campaigning whereas Chaney seems a little more focused on the old school ground game. Her donor list also makes for very interesting reading.
She seems to be doing very well in Subiaco, Shenton Park and West Leederville but Cottesloe, Dalkeith etc still seem more solid behind Hammond. The big unknown to me is Doubleview, Karrinyup and Scarborough which haven’t always been in the electorate.
^^Yep Chaney will probably do very well north of Stirling Hwy and south of Scarborough Beach Rd. The Doubleview/Scarborough areas have a lot of blocks that have been subdivided recently with mortgaged younger voters who are better off than average but who would overall prefer a teal independent over a Liberal. Celia Hamond as a socially conservative Liberal MP that doesn’t look like Cabinet material is a poor fit for the electorate. It looks like it’ll be a close contest.
ajm says:
“There were remarks a couple of days ago that the campaign started on the anniversary of the final siling of the Titanic”
… and on the anniversary of the launch of Apollo 13.
“Houston, I’ve got a problem!”
New thread.