SA election: call of the board

The finer points of Labor’s South Australian election win, and a closer look at the seats still in doubt.

Tuesday night

The Electoral Commission website is finally publishing two-candidate preferred results, but as ever there remains the South Australian peculiarity that the declaration votes are not being broken down into separate results for pre-polls, postals and absents, so we will have little guidance as to why what’s happening is happening as these results inevitably bounce around over the next week or so. After essentially no progress in the count on Monday, declaration votes started being reported in some seats yesterday.

The ABC rates nine seats as being in varying degrees of doubt, but I’m not inclined to agree with respect to Hammond, where declaration votes can only widen Liberal member Adrian Pederick’s 51.3-48.7 lead over independent Airlie Keen, who seems unlikely to make the final count in any case. That leaves clear results of 26 for Labor, 12 for Liberal and four for independents. Not among the in doubt is one seat I should have mentioned in the previous update: Gibson, where the identification of errors and the allocation of saved informal votes in accordance with registered party tickets on Saturday increased the size of Labor’s lead from 486 to an insurmountable 1055. That leaves:

Dunstan. Early indications are that this is going as I thought it might, with the first batch of declaration votes breaking 924-792 in favour of Steven Marshall, reducing the Labor lead from 143 to 11.

Finniss. Despite 1939 declaration votes breaking 1115-824 in favour of Liberal member David Basham over independent candidate Lou Nicholson on the two-party preferred candidate, it remains clear that he will not close the gap. So the issue remains whether Nicholson will indeed made the final count, or whether it will be a Liberal-Labor contest in which Basham will presumably prevail. The declaration votes so far suggest she won’t make it, as they have reduced her overall primary vote from 23.0% to 21.6% while increasing Labor’s from 23.4% to 23.7%.

Morialta. Liberal member John Gardner seems very unlikely to lose from here, the first batch of declaration votes having increased his margin from 145 to 347.

Unley. Another one that will shortly be off the Liberals’ endangered list if the first declaration votes are any guide: they have broken 680-402 in favour of Liberal member David Pisoni, increasing his lead from 92 to 370.

Waite. Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde needed declaration votes to break perhaps 64-36 in his favour to rein in Catherine Hutchesson’s lead on the two-candidate count – implausible as this seemed, he’s come close on the first batch, which have broken 609-376 his way (so 61.8%). Independent Heather Holmes-Ross nudging her way to the final count on preferences should continue to be rated very unlikely.

Sunday night

The news kept getting worse for the Liberals in today’s counting, thanks to two new two-candidate preference counts in seats where the wrong candidates were picked for the count on the night:

Waite. After conducting a preference count between Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde and independent Heather Holmes-Ross on the night, which made it clear Hyde would lose if Holmes-Ross made the final count, today a new count was conducted between Hyde and Labor candidate Catherine Hutchesson that made it clear he would lose to her too. That seems far the most likely outcome, with primary votes of Labor 27.4%, Liberal 24.5%, 18.9% for Liberal-turned-independent incumbent Sam Duluk and 15.3% for Holmes-Ross. Preferences from the Greens (12.0%) and Animal Justice (1.9%) could theoretically cause either independent to reduce the Liberals to third place and leave Labor and the independent at the final account, but that seems very unlikely. Labor thus looks poised to win the state’s second most affluent seat, which has it has neither won before now, either as Waite or in its previous incarnation as Mitcham going back to 1938.

Flinders. Liberal candidate Sam Telfer has 45.3% of the primary vote here, which in a field of six candidates that includes the Nationals would normally be enough. However, a two-candidate preferred count between Telfer and independent candidate Liz Habermann, which has thus far accounted for 10 out of 27 booths, finds preferences splitting 78-22 in favour of Habermann. According to the ABC, this suggests Habermann is ahead according to a method that matches the 10 booths with their equivalent results from 2018. However, projecting the preference flow so far across the primary votes puts Telfer ahead 51.1-48.9. I would also suggest that postal votes are likely to favour him. Should she fall short, the possibility of Habermann running in Grey at the federal election was canvassed on the ABC’s Insiders this morning.

Dunstan. Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon trailed here 7191 to 7095 at the close on Saturday, but now leads 7376 to 7233. The ABC site explains: “Greens and Family First votes with insufficient preferences that were saved by SA’s unique ticket voting provision have been added today. Both parties lodged tickets flowing to Labor so that has added around 170 votes to Labor’s total.” That leaves him 0.5% behind, but my judgement yesterday that late counting was likely to improve his position by over 1% isn’t affected by this. It remains uncomfortably close for him, though presumably there is a strong chance of him retiring from politics and O’Hanlon getting a second crack at a by-election if she falls short.

Saturday night

Labor went into the election with 19 seats out of 47, had an easy gain in Florey with the departure of independent Frances Bedford, and have made it to a clear majority with five further gains from the Liberals. I count five potential further gains, including Steven Marshall’s seat of Dunstan, though I only reckon them to be ahead in one, and a sixth if they win Waite from a Liberal-turned-independent, which is very hard to call.

The Liberals won 25 seats in 2018, which had reduced to 22 by the election with three members moving to the cross-bench. Two of these three have been re-elected as independents while the third has been defeated – as just noted, it’s not clear whether by Liberal or Labor. If that seat remains with the Liberals and the other close races go their way, they will finish on 17. However, there is one further seat that may yet fall to an independent. Geoff Brock has proved net neutral for the Liberals in that the party gained his old seat of Frome, but have now lost Stuart to him. This leaves three or maybe four independents, or perhaps even five if it’s an independent who gets up in the complex race for Waite.

The display on the ABC site rates the most likely outcome as Labor on 28 seats, when they in fact lead in only 27. This would be the result of a probability-based determination that rates Labor as most likely to get over the line in one of the several seats where it is slightly behind, without any commitment as to which one.

The ABC’s system has booth-matching switched off, so the swings it shows are simply the pre-election margins as compared with the current raw totals. The analysis that follows, by contrast, compares election day booth results with their equivalent from last time, those being the only votes counted as of yet. All we will get today is rechecking and perhaps the reporting of a few straggler booths that didn’t get their two-candidate preferred results in from last night – counting of pre-polls, postals and absent votes, which by my reckoning should account for a bit less than 40% of the total, will begin on Monday. A further complication is that I have consistently used the post-redistribution margins calculated by the Boundaries Commission, which differ from those Antony Green has calculated for the ABC.

Labor gains:

Adelaide: The election day vote was completed at the end of the night, and showed the 0.8% Liberal margin easily accounted for by a 6.6% swing to Labor.

Davenport: The most impressive of Labor’s gains was its first ever win in Davenport, achieved by Erin Thompson with an 11.8% swing against Liberal member Steve Murray, who went into the election with a margin of 8.4%.

Elder: One of the four easy pickings for Labor with margins of less than 2% — precisely so in this case — swung to Labor by 7.5%, with Labor’s Nadia Clancy gaining the seat from Liberal member Carolyn Power.

King: The Liberals’ hope of toughing it out here on the back of Paula Leuthen’s sophomore surge weren’t realised — against a 0.8% margin, Labor’s Rhiannon Pearce scored a 3.9% swing.

Newland: In the tightest of the Liberal marginals, Labor’s Olivia Savvas did it easily with a swing of 5.0% (one booth is yet to report on the two-candidate preferred count, but this won’t matter much). In her bid to move from Florey, which she held for Labor from 1997 to 2017 and as an independent thereafter, Frances Bedford finished a very distant third with 11.9%.

Down to the wire:

Dunstan: Outgoing Premier Steven Marshall leads after counting of election day votes by 7191 to 7095, a margin of 0.3%. I calculate this as a swing of 6.2%, which given his margin of 8.1% suggests he’s likely to prevail. However, that’s the Boundaries Commission’s estimate of the margin — Antony Green only has it at 7.5%.

Gibson: The election day booths swung 10.7% to Labor, exceeding a Liberal margin of 9.9%, but not by so much that you’d call it.

Morialta: Outgoing Education Minister John Gardner had a 9.9% margin going in according to the Boundaries Commission, but only 9.4% according to Antony Green. On the election day vote he copped a swing of 8.6%.

Unley: This has been a pretty safe Liberal seat since 1993, and while David Pisoni looks like retaining it, he suffered a scare in the form of a 9.8% swing to Labor against a margin of 11.2%.

Waite: This one is very hard to read: the two-candidate preferred count has independent Heather Holmes-Ross leading Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde by 55.3% to 44.7%, but this will only apply if Holmes-Ross makes the final count and she’s actually running fourth. It’s theoretically possible that preferences from the Greens (12.0%) and Animal Justice (1.9%) could help her close the 18.9% to 15.3% gap against Liberal-turned-indepenent member Sam Duluk, and that Duluk’s preferences could then push her ahead of Hyde, although a lot of Duluk’s preferences will presumably go straight to Hyde. In that case, it comes down to a race between Hyde and Labor candidate Catherine Hutchesson that could go either way, with the result depending on the preferences of the nearly 50% of voters who voted for neither, about which we can only speculate.

Notable contests involving independents:

Stuart: I personally didn’t like Geoff Brock’s chances against Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan, to which he moved after his home base of Port Pirie was transferred to the electorate from his existing seat of Frome. So it was a very substantial surprise that he romped home with 65.9% of the vote on the two-candidate preferred count at the end of the night, albeit that postal votes will undoubtedly rein that in a fair bit.

Kavel: Liberal-turned-independent Dan Cregan scored a thumping win with a majority on the primary vote.

Narungga: Another Liberal-turned-independent, Fraser Ellis, has comfortably retained his seat ahead of Liberal candidate Tom Michael with 58.9% on ECSA’s two-candidate preferred count, from primary votes of 32.4% for Ellis, 28.1% for Michael and 20.2% for Labor.

Finniss: ECSA conducted a count between Liberal member David Basham and independent candidate Lou Nicholson in which Nicholson polled 5590 of the election day votes (54.7%) and Basham polled 4625 (45.3%). However, this only applies if Nicholson makes the final preference count, which would seem to be touch and go — Basham is on 36.9%, Labor’s Amy Hueppauff is on 23.5% and Nicholson is on 22.9%, so Nicholson has a gap to close on preferences. Otherwise the final count will be Basham versus Hueppauff, in which case Basham should win fairly comfortably.

Florey: Worth noting as a Labor gain, but with independent Frances Bedford vacating the seat for an unsuccessful run in Newland, this was a mere formality.

Frome: Similarly, this predictably returned to the Liberals with Geoff Brock’s move to Stuart,

Finally, a bit over half of the count for the Legislative Council has been conducted, and the most likely result looks like being five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation, the latter being in line for their first ever seat in the South Australian parliament. Taken together with the ongoing members elected in 2018, this will mean a chamber of nine Labor members, eight Liberals, two Greens, two from SA-Best and one from One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

387 comments on “SA election: call of the board”

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  1. GG
    Not a hope. I’ve decided to go into AI and ML as a way to branch out my medical career. I’m keeping away from politics.

  2. Diogs,

    He said by posting on a political blog.

    However, I respect your opinion and insight from afar.


  3. On the Wikipedia front, I noticed in this week that the “Seats Changing Hands” sections for SA elections have been absent for elections from 2002 and earlier, so I’ve been completing those sections over the past few days. I’ve just finished the 1982 section. Hopefully they have been helpful in some way, and I hope they’re accurate, particularly because the 1985 and 1993 elections were pretty heavily redistributed.

  4. Kirsdarke @ #303 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 7:04 pm

    On the Wikipedia front, I noticed in this week that the “Seats Changing Hands” sections for SA elections have been absent for elections from 2002 and earlier, so I’ve been completing those sections over the past few days. I’ve just finished the 1982 section. Hopefully they have been helpful in some way, and I hope they’re accurate, particularly because the 1985 and 1993 elections were pretty heavily redistributed.

    Thank you. 🙂

  5. Having observed a few close counts in my time, for example Colton in 2014, the prepolls and absentees tend to get counted after the postals. My suspicion is that this is happening again this time, as almost every count I have looked at improved for the Liberals on Tuesday. Labor tends to do pretty well on absentees, and its anybody’s guess with prepolls. I would say the Liberals are far from out of the woods in Dunstan, but Morialta/Unley looking much less likely (but not impossible).

  6. Just as well it wasnt a close election with the result hanging on this counting….they managed to improve the count from 52.4% to about 56% yesterday…so based on that effort we should finish sometime in April….

  7. BeaglieBoy. Understand the legal position that all prepolls and absent votes are declaration votes. Ie have names etc on envelope which need to be checked against electoral roll, opened etc. Takes a lot of time. Once all that happens then the count is quite quick.

    But apart perhaps for some exceptions in v close seats, the count will be finalised for a category of votes before results put up. That allows totals to be checked etc to avoid errors. ECSA are following the law. The law was proposed to change to allow prepoll counting before the polls closed. Parliament didn’t get around to changing the law.

    There is also a staffing issue. A political person decides the spending for elections not ECSA. You sound like you are blaming ECSA. Be a bit more perceptive.

  8. Not sure why people get worked up over the speed of the count. ECSA’s key objective is to determine whether or not the government has changed. That was determined on Saturday night, and the new Premier was sworn in on Monday. From this point on an accurate final count is more important than a fast one.

  9. From Antony Green;
    Prediction – at the end of counting on Tuesday, the overall result looks like finishing as Labor 27, Liberal 15 and Independents 5. This assumes Steven Marshall will retain Dunstan and Independent Lou Nicholson will defeat Liberal David Basham in Finniss. The Finniss result is the one that is in my view the most in doubt. Marshall is behind in Dunstan but I expect him to pull ahead on declaration vote counting. My expected 27th Labor seat is Waite where it looks highly improbable that Liberal Alexander Hyde can win. I expect the Liberal Party to win the remaining three seats currently in doubt, Hammond, Morialta and Unley.

  10. Antony Greens assessments seem pretty Labor will win Waite but probably nothing else from what remains. Dunstan appears the closest of the lot but again I suspect Marshall to retire so there will be a rerun without his personal vote

  11. [Dunstan appears the closest of the lot but again I suspect Marshall to retire so there will be a rerun without his personal vote]
    Will be hilarious to see the new Liberal leader asking Marshall to stay on as long as possible to avoid the embarrassment of Labor winning another seat.

  12. I wouldn’t put too much stock into the idea of Labor winning a Dunstan by-election. Should Marshall survive, he probably won’t resign until at least later in the year, well after the dust from the election has settled and the baseball bats have been put away. Which means many people who voted Labor might feel more comfortable going back to the Liberals again. Of course, no by-election is the same and anything’s possible but I think the idea that if Labor don’t win it now they’ll definitely win it at the by-election to be a bit premature.

    If Marshall holds on, I think the best shot for Labor in the seat is, at the next redistribution, it loses some of its wealthier booths and becomes more friendlier to Labor prospects in the future.

  13. Ironically, Labor’s good performance with declaration votes counted so far in Finniss make it very difficult now for the independent Nicholson to make it to the final cut, which will deliver the seat to Basham.

    I still like Labor’s odds in Waite with 64% counted and Labor leading by 1600. It could be tight though, if current declaration vote trends continue (but for reasons stated by Syksie, I expect that to come back a bit).

    For those frustrated by a supposedly slow count, Spence makes good points as usual. Although it’s slow progress early in the post election week, the pace will pick up. ECSA’s website says that the final 2CP count will be done on the Sunday 8 days after the election, which will complete the process. In other words, the timetable for completion of the count is actually quite quick – if you like, ECSA are slow starters but fast finishers! It’s just too bad for the poll tragics such as those of us who contribute to this thread of comments!!

  14. I am holding my breath for Dunstan, again for reasons stated by Syksie. It could be one of those elections which go down to the wire, with the lead chopping and changing. I think Marshall pulled ahead at one point in the counting yesterday, but by the end of the day O’Hanlon was back in front – by 11. I won’t be surprised if this trend continues right though to Sunday.

  15. On what basis is Anthony Green assuming that declaration votes will favour Marshall? Do we have any evidence yet of how they are breaking? Could be quite a few people in there worried about covid and angry about Marshall opening the borders just as Omicron hit.

  16. In Colton in 2014, as postals were being counted first, it looked like Paul Caica was getting to get mown down. Then when prepolls/absentees (particularly absentees) were counted it reversed quite strongly. A lot of retail/hospitality workers tend to absentee vote and these are generally much more favourable to the ALP. However since ECSA don’t actually tell us which declaration votes they are counting, we can only guess as to what’s happening. The above is just my experience.

  17. Sykesie_says:
    Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 8:33 am
    “Having observed a few close counts in my time, for example Colton in 2014, the prepolls and absentees tend to get counted after the postals. My suspicion is that this is happening again this time, as almost every count I have looked at improved for the Liberals on Tuesday. Labor tends to do pretty well on absentees, and its anybody’s guess with prepolls.”

    ECSA don’t seem to give a split between pre-poll and postal votes, but it would be logical to assume that as postal votes may trickle in over the next week, whilst most pre-polls have already been received and will dominate the early declaration votes.

    The previous record on postal votes may not be so reliable this time as those who are worried about contracting Covid may well have chosen this method to minimise exposure …. and these same people may be particularly unhappy about Marshall opening up (against medical advice).

  18. Later postal votes may not break as favourably for Marshall as many will be caste by younger people in isolation or quarantine, like my daughter, a Dunstan voter, who picked up a dose of the Rona at WOMAD on Monday and didn’t find out until Friday. ECSA were on the ball setting up drive through postal ballot collection points. Popped her ballot in the post Saturday about midday. It would be somewhat ironic if her vote tipped Labor over the line by a single vote.

  19. Antony Green:
    Some explanatory graphs too

    Close Contest – Finniss
    Polling day results after check count left Independent Lou Nicholson just 0.4% behind Labor in the race for second place. From this point Nicholson would pass Labor on other preferences and go on to capture Labor preferences and win with 55.1% two-candidate preferred. Liberal David Basham polled only 37.0% of the first preference vote on polling day. The first batch of Declaration votes, mainly postal votes I understand, saw Basham poll 50.5%, Labor outpoll Nicholson 25.3% to 14.0% with fewer votes for other candidates. This left Nicholson trailing Labor by 2.1%, a tougher gap to close. Nicholson’s two-party preferred percentage if she passed Labor would also decline from 55.1% to 53.1%. Still enough to win, but closing the gap to pass Labor and win on preferences was getting harder.

    Close Contest – Dunstan
    Polling day results after check count left Labor on 50.5% with a lead of 143 votes. The first batch of Declaration votes, mainly postal votes I understand, split in favour of Liberal Steven Marshall, polling 53.8% and cutting Labor’s lead to just 11 votes.

  20. A little tidbit about Dunstan and Marshall – the Liberal state government has overseen a massive bit of roadworks on Portrush Road which has smashed a huge scar through two very old and charming suburbs, Norwood and Maylands. Hundreds, if not thousands, of residents have been affected and many lost their homes in an incredibly harsh and poorly managed compulsory acquisition process. To give you an idea of the size of the thing, the road has gone from two lanes each way to 8+ each way in places.

    The Department of Transport was incredibly arrogant and high handed, withholding their intentions until the last possible minute, providing misleading plans to the public and the like. Driving through there now it is an absolute wasteland of concrete in what used to be a relatively nice part of the city.

    For some more context for non-Adelaideans, prior to the last election the Liberals promised that they would get heavy transport vehicles off Portrush Road and build a bypass. As soon as they were elected they suddenly had the revelation that this would be difficult and expensive and abandoned the plan. So instead of doing what they promised, they have done the exact opposite, making the road bigger and bigger so more and more vehicles can use it.

    Houses along Portrush Road that were being demolished had signs on them imploring the premier to intervene for the better part of a year.

    Now… that all comes back to this election. My parents gave me a letter they had received in their mailbox from a resident of the area. He explained all of the foregoing, and said that he’d reached out to his local state member, Marshall, and his federal member James Stevens. He said that Stevens had simply never replied, and Marshall’s office had said that he would not be available to meet with a community group organising around the issue. The Labor candidate, however, had responded and engaged and promised to see if she could do anything. The letter went on to say that although the writer wasn’t a political person, he was so unhappy with the refusal of the two Liberal members to engage with the community that he would be voting Labor, and urged everyone else to do the same.

    I have heard some similar stories about these two not responding to community contact about this issue.

    Now IF Marshall loses by a handful of votes, I think it’s very reasonable to extrapolate that you can put it down to that single issue, and the way in which his office and the office of his federal counterpart have refused to even communicate with their own constituents about a major issue. Which would be poetic justice, because the road is a complete waste of money, has negatively affected many people, and has been managed terribly throughout the process.

  21. Oh, one more little bit of info about the roadworks issue – despite taking dozens of homes from ordinary people on the western side of the road, DPTI for some reason very conveniently managed to avoid taking any land from the eastern side of the road, which just happens to contain an Officeworks (Coles Myer, historically Liberal associated) and an ‘On the Run’ service station (owned by the very wealthy and influential Shahin family). I’m not suggesting impropriety by those organisations, but rather that it is classic Liberal government stuff to crush the little guy who can’t fight back but avoid any conflict with the wealthy and powerful.

    The contrast between the western and eastern sides of the road was not lost on the locals. 150 year old family homes bulldozed while a shake and bake officeworks and a dolled up servo taking up a huge amount of space go untouched.

    Unfortunately for the Liberals, those home owners collectively get a lot more votes in Dunstan than the big businesses across the road.

  22. Wat @ 12.16,
    Surely the only determinant of when Marshall resigns (assuming he wins now) is the size of his private sector remuneration. Then again, Mali could offer him the plum London A-G job replacing David Ridgway – subject to a quick resignation. Does anyone my age recall the Vince Gair Affair….?

  23. Why would Labor want Marshall to resign? If he wins, they would be happy for him to stick around and make life painful for the Libs, surely?

  24. Used to be that these post-election threads were kept strictly for discussion of late counting etc. Now we’ve got the usual PB chatter (which I find pretty uninteresting, dominated as it is by a few highly partisan loudmouths) invading them, which is a pity.

  25. Probably would be more discussion of late counting if they were actually doing any… incredibly slow going at the moment.

  26. Interesting comment in Marshall’s concession speech “I love my electorate, I’ve been out of it for some time with some of the complexities of what I’ve had to do with the coronavirus, but I’m looking forward to spending more time on the Parade, more time on Magill Road, more time on Payneham Road with the fabulous people of this electorate”

    Sees himself as having not only spent less time in the electorate than normal, but having been completely “out of it” for the duration of the pandemic

    Obviously the Premier has less time for local electorate matters, but the comment has been rolling around in my head as I watch the Dunstan count.

  27. There was a high turnout rate in Dunstan at the 2018 election (97%) and if repeated would mean there are still 10,000 or so votes to count. Overall, maybe 11,500 declaration votes in 2022 compared with 6,500 in 2019.

    In 2018, the declaration votes split 59/41 in favour of Marshall, compared with 55/45 for the booth votes. Obviously if a similar pattern were to be repeated this time, Marshall would end up winning easily.

    The presence of an extra 5,000 declaration votes this election creates the uncertainty. How will they behave? How does Covid affect early voting patterns? There is also a theory that early declaration votes may not behave in the same way as polling day votes for other reasons, for example, where an election contest tightens over the course of the campaign. Which way that would go is another matter! At least we only have to wait until Sunday to find out.

  28. Another batch of declaration votes have been added to the Waite count – Labor’s overall declaration vote share has jumped from 38% yesterday to 43% today.

    Roughly 1,000 votes were added yesterday and another 1,000 votes added today – which would mean the latest batch has split around 46% to Labor – on my very rough reckoning.

    You would just about call Waite for Labor now on that basis. Even if preferences continue to split at 43% that’s more than enough.

    Labor also continues to pull ahead of the independent which just about eliminates any risk that Labor won’t make the final cut.

  29. Sorry – ECSA’s numbers for Waite seem to have jumped around a bit so I edited my earlier comment to reflect that.

    Presumably more updates to come later today.

  30. And as I write its now up to 3,000 declaration votes in Waite – and now splitting 43/57 Labor’s way overall. So Labor has had a good day so far with the extra counting.

  31. Having just done the maths, it appears 2171 votes declaration votes were added in Waite today, which split 1188 to 983 in favour of Alex Hyde. In % terms – 54.7% to 45.3% for today’s votes. It leaves Hutchesson in a very strong position to win, with an overall lead of 1389 and around 6,000 votes left to count.

  32. Labor will win Waite.

    They have also won in Elder.

    Both previous Lib seats, both within the federal seat of Boothby.

    Still getting material in the letter box pushing Nicole Flint’s image and profile (and not her Liberal successor).

    Boothby looks ripe for the taking.

  33. PaulTu, just got that Flint pamphlet too! I looked in vain for any reference to climate change as an issue. They just fundamentally don’t get it.

  34. ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 4:20 pm

    Dunstan on a knife edge, zero votes counted since 2:42pm yesterday. SA Health possibly conducting the count.’

  35. Patrick Bateman:

    Marshall doesn’t strike me as the type to be a wrecker. If he retains Dunstan and decides to stick around, I’d assume he would just be doing normal local member stuff and staying out of his successor’s way.

  36. Correspondence from Antony Green’s blog

    March 23, 2022 at 1:09 pm
    Hi Antony. With the declaration votes, do you (or we) have access to the results by type of vote (pre-poll or postal) and if so do these show different patterns. I note that (for example) in Dunstan Marshall has made up some ground with declaration votes, but are these pre-poll or postal, and can we expect this pattern to continue for the balance of the vote count? I know that in Federal elections this information is visible.

    COMMENT: South Australia provides no figures on the type of declaration vote counted. All that I do know is that most of the first day declaration votes counted were postal votes.”

    So…. it seems the pre-poll votes, whilst cast earlier, will be the later votes counted. Which might be good/better for Labor than postal votes.

  37. Asha_says:
    Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 5:53 pm
    “Still getting material in the letter box pushing Nicole Flint’s image and profile

    Was it sent by the Labor Party?”

    Surely no…… but hey, what a good idea.

  38. Patrick Bateman_says:
    Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 2:39 pm
    “A little tidbit about Dunstan and Marshall – the Liberal state government has overseen a massive bit of roadworks on Portrush Road which has smashed a huge scar through two very old and charming suburbs, Norwood and Maylands. Hundreds, if not thousands, of residents have been affected and many lost their homes in an incredibly harsh and poorly managed compulsory acquisition process. To give you an idea of the size of the thing, the road has gone from two lanes each way to 8+ each way in places.”

    It’s a bit “Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy” (damn, I’m showing my age).

    To paraphrase.

    The plans to destroy earth to make way for an intergalactic bypass have been available in Alpha Centauri for the last X thousand years. Sorry, too late.

  39. Patrick
    “ SA Health possibly conducting the count.”
    If SA Health was conducting the count it would say;
    Pleasing reduction in the number of hospitalisations and those in ICU by three. Oh, and there were three deaths.

  40. With 61.6% of the upper house counted, Labor are on 4.498 quotas, the Liberals comfortably back above 4 with 4.093 and the Greens fading a bit to 1.120.

    The bigger minor rights have 1.247 quotas between the three of them, with ONP still in the lead.

    And spare a thought for the Nationals, who have received in total 4,889 votes and are in twelth place.

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