Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Newspoll’s second poll for the year records no change on the major party primary votes since the Coalition’s disastrous result a fortnight ago, but a decline in Greens support and Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Australian brings us a new result from Newspoll, suggesting it is moving to a fortnightly schedule now that the election is in view. It is only slightly better for the Coalition than the previous disaster, with Labor’s lead in from 56-44 to 55-45. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 41%, the two-party result reflecting a three-point drop in support for the Greens to 8%. One Nation is steady at 3%, with the lost Greens vote accounted for by a three-point increase in “others” to 14%.

The news for Labor is less good on personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese’s approval down three to 40% and disapproval up three to 46%, after the previous poll respectively had him up four and down two. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 40% and down two on disapproval to 56%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-41 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1526.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,556 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. Snappy Tom

    My nonogerian mother is great believer in the ability of St Anthony to find things that are lost.

    She parlayed this into finding parking spaces when she and my father had to venture into the city.

    I laughed when she told me but she swore by it.

    It’s called faith I guess. And if she thinks it works who am I to argue that it may just be coincidence.

  5. ”
    Snappy Tomsays:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 9:36 pm
    I note some here choose to decide all religious people are completely lacking in intelligence. Nice one.

    We can either have conversation or trade insults.

    So, insult away to you hearts’ content(s).

    I am here for conversation.
    ”

    Snappy Tom
    I enjoy your contributions.
    I find yabba religious contributions arrogant in nature.

  6. ”
    Steve777says:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 9:47 pm
    Eraring always sounds to me like a location in the Lord of the Rings world.

    Be that as it may, why does the Federal Government care about decisions made by a private company? Won’t the “market” sort it out? Of course they believe in “free markets” until they don’t. Actually, no one actually believes in “free” markets except maybe a few academics and junior researchers in Right Wing think tanks.
    ”

    Like IPA.

  8. yabba @ #2500 Thursday, February 17th, 2022 – 10:11 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2488 Thursday, February 17th, 2022 – 9:52 pm

    Yabba,

    Mostly, you should be considerate of your reputation as a sectarian bigot. It’s good that you are proud of your achievements in that space.

    I know you are. So, bravo for you.

    I will never pretend that you are anything much at all sweetheart.

    Watch the Hitchens debate video that AE put up. Then explain where Hitchens is incorrect.

    As I have said before, being called a bigot by you is just what I would expect. A man who defends George Pell is one whose opinion is not worth a pinch of salt.

    Watch a reasoned debate between Richard Dawkins and Rowan Williams that is host at Oxford by a n Agnostic Philosopher. Then you can give us an explanation of what consciousness is. Dawkins couldn’t, but with your superior intelligence…

  9. Bizzare offering of a disgraced judge

    https://www.petervickeryqc.com/publications

    Summarised by a friend as follows

    “I admire the courage of the two women who came forward with their false stories.
    I would like to thank Kate Eastman for her deeply flawed report which I accept and propose to challenge.
    The unjust process defied basic principles and should be adopted in all workplaces.”

  10. Tom at 10:38 pm

    Then you can give us an explanation of what consciousness is.

    The connection between that and “the price of fish” is what exactly ? Oh look, science does not know absolutely everything yet , ergo sky faeries must be possible ? The ‘believers’ make extraordinary claims, ones that seem very keen on controlling the lives of other people. The least they can do is provide extraordinary evidence.

  11. I’m trying to decide whether this “Manchurian Candidate” business is coming out of focus groups, or is Morrison just winging it, showing off to his Nervous Nellie Coalition MPs what an incisive political mind he has.

    What makes me think it’s more of the latter is that no reputable journo or commentator is writing it up. It’s mostly being left to staffers and second-string columnists. The real pros know it’s poison. And ScoMo does have form in the “Going It Alone” business. And it’s nearly always what costs him his job.

    Why he is going out of his way to piss-off our (by far) largest trading partner mystifies me. Why he is using Anthony Albanese as a pinata in this exercise is another big question, especially as there is so much information (now in the process of being produced) that supports Albanese’s story, rather than Morrison’s.

    Anyway, I guess we’ll see.

  12. Tom @ #2494 Thursday, February 17th, 2022 – 9:59 pm

    He keeps on about how superior his intelligence is.

    As I pointed out a few days ago, that is simply untrue. I challenged a person once, when he called me a halfwit, and showed that that was untrue. Years ago. Others bring it up. Not me.

    Two words that confuse Yabba are ‘culture’ and ‘context’. You will know the significance of those words given the context.

    Is this the sort of cultural context that you say I don’t appreciate?

    The bible has no identifiable authors, no historical backing worth a pinch of salt, and has been ‘interpreted’ by ‘the faithful’, as fully justifying the torture, slaughter and persecution of hundreds of thousands who either rejected its abject nonsense, or just had a different ‘interpretation’ of its ‘true’ meaning (eg 4th Crusade). It has also delayed and interfered with scientific progress (Galileo and many, many others), and has been used as justification for racial vilification and annihilation (the Jews are god killers), social degradation, the mistreatment and subjugation of women and homosexuals, and slavery, all resulting from ‘sincere interpretation’ of selected, useful (while ignoring cultural context), quotes from the ‘holy’ book.

    Perhaps you can enlighten us all, just a little, of the cultural context that I am missing? I am sure we would all appreciate your enlightened penetrating viewpoint.

  15. Snappy Tom

    No one is accusing the religious of a lack of intelligence.

    Just a wondering of how anyone with intelligence can believe such nonsense.

    No further correspondence required.

    I’ve made my thoughts clear.

  18. Tom,

    Consciousness is a red herring brought up by believers in sky fairies when they want a distraction from the actual subject of a debate.

    It is also what I have when I am conscious. In the early stages of a night’s sleep, I don’t have it. When I am dreaming I have a sort of warped version of it. Sometimes, say when I am listening to Andras Schiff play Bach with my eyes closed, I seem to go into a different sort of consciousness. Also when I practise transcendental meditation.

    When people are dead, they don’t have it any more. Not at all. Not in heaven or in hell. Or limbo. Or purgatory. Nowhere at all. They also lose their belief in sky fairies, because consciousness is required for that. You can have consciousness and not believe in sky fairies, though. That I am sure of.

    Please sir, am I right?

    Could I ask you, what is the sense of smell? And what is kinaesthesia? And how accurate is it? Do you sometimes lose track of where your foot is?

  20. Snappy Tom says:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    Bludging at 8.50pm

    You seem to assume God is some sort of being. This was the operating assumption in the ancient and medieval worlds. Some of the loudest (RWNJ) so-called Christian voices today also seem to hold this assumption.

    It is most certainly not mine.

    I may have less belief in sky fairies than the most militant atheists here

    Not at all. I think it’s a very unusual idea. There is no example anywhere of the existence of a ‘supernatural being’. This concept is not consistent at all with what we know of nature.

  21. Re Granny Anny at 11.43 am and the value of home made signs

    There are still numerous standard Liberal Fiona KOTVOJS signs perched high up trees around Narooma (where the first such signs appeared straight after the by-election date was fixed).

    In south Narooma there are a couple of hand-written colourful, memorable signs, saying:

    “Gladys is Gone. Liberals are Lost”. Probably much more effective than the expensive signs.

    The Sat swing in Narooma was 17.7%; early voting swing was 13.5%, above the seat average.

    Dr Michael Holland, the new Labor member for Bega, has one sign on private property beside a burnt-out railway carriage near the highway on a hill overlooking Dignam’s Creek, not far from where Kotvojs lives. She had more signs, but he had word of mouth, a stronger medium.

    Unless there is an effective message, such as the choice of “Local Doctor or Spin Doctor” that was displayed around polling booths on election day, expensive signs may be wasted money.

    What counts is quality not quantity, and, remarkably, sometimes quality items are cheaper.

  24. Clumsily written opening paragraph (also used in the headline) makes it look like Albanese has been caught out fibbing about his dealings with the Chinese. Author? Pipsqueak Anthony Galloway again. The pros won’t touch this story.

    Anthony Albanese has sought to correct the record on his previous statements on China’s trade strikes against Australia and his attendance at the opening of the Chau Chak Wing Museum, as the federal government doubles down its attacks on the Labor leader over national security.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-discloses-conversation-with-spy-chief-to-hit-back-on-coalition-over-china-attacks-20220217-p59xda.html

    A more accurate way of putting it would be to say that Albo has rebutted the lies told about him by Morrison and Dutton, as well as The Australian editorial writers.

  26. As an agnostic I am well positioned to call out the material determinist type atheists (pretty much anyone who thinks Dawkins has anything of value to offer on the subject) as the “firefox greens of the metaphysics”.

    You simply have no grounds in either known reality or reason in support of what you arrogate. That is, firefox Greens.

  28. We are comprised of a flux of atoms (usually in molecules of various sizes) and I guess a whole variety of more fleeting sub-atomic particles.

    It is a fact that this stuff of which we are made looked at separately, is inanimate and identical to any other molecule, atom or sub-atomic particle of the same type existing elsewhere.

    It is a fact that at some stage in the development of each of us as a foetus, the motley collection of stuff develops a central organising process that synthesises sensory inputs and creates a narrative (or even alternate narratives) from that sensory data to make predictions about the on-going conduct of the world beyond the central organising process (including predictions as to the corporeal presence that apparently enlivens that central organising process).

    However whatever is going on that we call consciousness is not only not explained by God, the use of God as an explication is antithetical to consciousness itself. Why? Because the central organising process is being invited to stop making predictions of the world based on its senses (its essential modus operandi) and to instead accept on faith an explanation of a part of the world (consciousness itself).

  29. Windhover says:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 11:59 pm

    You’re really saying that our own personal existences/states-of-living/consciousness is incompatible with the existence of a deity. I’ll buy that.

    Put otherwise, I think the idea of a deity is superfluous. It’s not necessary. Occam had something to say about that.

  31. I lump agnostics in the same boat as the believers.

    Agnostics are even worse, fence sitters, two bob each way.

    Again, intelligence?

  32. “Garethsays:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 11:55 pm
    The Revisionistsays:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 11:50 pm

    Militant atheists have faith.”

    That’s exactly right. They have neither reason or evidence, only faith. Ridiculous people

  34. “Been Theresays:
    Friday, February 18, 2022 at 12:10 am
    I lump agnostics in the same boat as the believers.

    Agnostics are even worse, fence sitters, two bob each way.

    Again, intelligence?”

    You do so because you’re an idiot.

    Speaking of two Bob each way, you want to claim reason for yourself, but then dismiss the only reasonable conclusion as a “two Bob each way”. It’s so self evidently stupid but your oh so narrow cognitive defences don’t allow you to see that do they?

  36. “Put otherwise, I think the idea of a deity is superfluous. It’s not necessary. Occam had something to say about that.”

    No he didn’t. Occam was a scholastic Catholic monk as were the people that refined his thinking over the following centuries. On the current topic, his actual quote about entities not being multiplied beyond necessity applied today is surely only supportive of the concept of a universe creating supernatural being (i.e. as opposed to an infinite multiverse that seems the leading alternative candidate now based on modern physics)

  38. One cosmos/many of them…same/same, surely. The cosmos can be singular or plural.

    Occam’s razor is a principle of theory construction or evaluation according to which, other things equal, explanations that posit fewer entities, or fewer kinds of entities, are to be preferred to explanations that posit more.

    It is not necessary to invoke an idea of a deity to explain what we know of the cosmos. The idea is redundant, superfluous, obsolete, wasted, trivial.

    Of course, there are things about the cosmos that we don’t know, including whether or not there are other iterations of this cosmos; and what they might be like. But there’s no need to invoke the idea of a deity to explain these things. In fact, to the contrary, the idea of a deity would not explain anything. It would only mystify things. A good working definition of “deity” would be “things in nature that remain unexplained”.

  42. Avowing a belief that “there are things in nature that remain unexplained” is very prosaic. It’s no more than a truism. You’d think it’s not enough of an idea upon which world-wide faith movements could be founded. Yet that’s what happened. Upon the absence of knowledge – upon ignorance – religions have been instigated and grown into dominance. It’s no wonder they have suppressed learning all along the way, and still do.

  43. The Revisionist:

    No he didn’t. Occam was a scholastic Catholic monk as were the people that refined his thinking over the following centuries. On the current topic, his actual quote about entities not being multiplied beyond necessity applied today is surely only supportive of the concept of a universe creating supernatural being (i.e. as opposed to an infinite multiverse that seems the leading alternative candidate now based on modern physics)

    (William of) Occam’s Razor, if applied today, operates principally in the abductive phase (“hypothesis generation / selection”) of the scientific method – i.e. working out which hypotheses it is useful to test (in order to maximise the efficient discovery of scientific results). The fact that “universe creating (omnipotent) supernatural being” contains fewer entities is irrelevant because that hypothesis is not able to be tested and thus does not meet (or even relate to) the necessity condition.

  44. Re:”dark ages” and the clergy; One of the the great things I learned about that time was from the subreddit “AskHistorians”.

    The idea that the clergy of those times were “backwards” and against progress is not supported by historical record. Many people from those times, especially the clergy, were sophisticated, educated, and inquisitive. This ‘meme’ that clergy from before about 1800 were “anti-science” because science was “against the word of the bible” is not supported by the evidence. The clergy was, in fact, where the scientists came from, primarily because they could read in a world in which it took a great deal of effort to write and distribute books.

    The anti-science movement is a relatively recent phenomenon. There are a lot of precedents for that, many from the united states diaspora, but they aren’t the only source. But I think it’s important to not connect the adherents of any faith today from what might be perceived as the people that may or may not have come before them. Issues that relate to anti-science may have links to faith based organisations today, but it is a tenuous link to suggest that those are born out of faith based systems from centuries or even millenia ago.

  45. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 10:36 am
    The more Scottie & co fu*k up, the more errors they make the more desperate FF sets with his Greens spooking… just an observation
    ”

    Unfortunately true.

  48. I’ve been in cars where the driver prayed for a parking space.

    Of course, when you’ve driven around twice without finding one, it’s easy to explain why God made you wait for the Right One to open up (“Oh look, it’s a Pillar 3 – it’s to remind us of the Trinity…”)

    I’ve also often mused about the dynamics of it.

    The parking space is a sort of Schrodingers Cat.

    God’s omnipotent, so he knows you’re going to need one, but the niceties of the situation means that you must put in a formal request via prayer before it is revealed to you.

    So the necessary chains of motion which must occur for the space to materialise – some random shopper inside the mall suddenly giving up on their quest to return to the perfectly placed car at exactly the right time – can’t be put in place until the actual prayer hits the carpet.

    Which means the random shopper is hovering nearby, at once returning to their car and not returning to their car, until the crucial moment.

    It’s possible, free will being what it is, that this requires several contingency plans – a skew of random shoppers poised to return to their perfectly placed car depending on where and when you do the praying.

  49. So, have we solved the answer to the problem of ‘Life, the Universe and Everything’?

    I could have told you the answer is ’43’.

    And for Snappy Tom, who is religious but does not believe in a corporeal entity with clearly-defined and delineated imagery, I have summed up his relationship with religion thus:

    https://youtu.be/SJUhlRoBL8M

    There we go. Sorted. 🙂

    Now, can we get back to politics?

    Hey, how about that Scott Morrison fellow? What norm isn’t he prepared to trash?

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