The Australian brings us a new result from Newspoll, suggesting it is moving to a fortnightly schedule now that the election is in view. It is only slightly better for the Coalition than the previous disaster, with Labor’s lead in from 56-44 to 55-45. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 41%, the two-party result reflecting a three-point drop in support for the Greens to 8%. One Nation is steady at 3%, with the lost Greens vote accounted for by a three-point increase in “others” to 14%.
The news for Labor is less good on personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese’s approval down three to 40% and disapproval up three to 46%, after the previous poll respectively had him up four and down two. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 40% and down two on disapproval to 56%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-41 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1526.
Forget 23 minutes, this is getting monotonous……….
Can throw this one in the bin AFAIC 😛 Obviously an unfriendly sample for the Greens. Can always tell when that’s the case when there’s a big change for no apparent reason.
The primaries shown add to 86, giving 14 for ‘others’ and (presumably) uncommitted.
Would this perhaps indicate a vote for the Teals at the expense of the Greens? The Teals would not be expected to give the same rate of 2nd preferences to Labor as the Greens.
The Greens lose a putative 3/11 votes. Good. Very good. The run is on. This is consistent with the increase in Labor’s polled support from around 33 to 41. Labor is drawing support from across the spectrum. If this continues, Labor will win in the House and take seats from the Greens and their reactionary alternates, the LNP, in the Senate. Change is on the stove, braising steadily.
As nice as it is seeing a quarter of the Greens vote disappear, I’ve little doubt it is noise. The bad news for SfM being that it’s just as likely to come back next fortnight.
No change in the major’s primaries though is real news. If Labor’s PV really is setting solid in the 40s and the Coalition are stuck in the low 30s the election is all over Red Rover.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 9:52 pm
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 7:40 pm
You know Boer, i reckon that is quite possible to cut defence spending back to about 1.5% of GNP without the ADF being turned into a ‘peace studies’ basket case that you accuse the Greens of wanting to do.
it would involve some acceptance of risk – namely that we are not going to get involved in a kinetic war with either the ChiComms or any other larger than us power in the next 30-50 years. In my view, abandoning the pretence of being America’s South Pacific chihuahua and investing heavily in diplomacy, multilateral institutions and a 0.7% of GNP foreign aid budget very probably makes that a reasonable level of risk to take.
It would mean that we don’t get involved – or even intimate that we would get involved – in a kinetic war in the northern pacific or east Asia. It would mean removing American marines from the NT, and terminating the joint comms bases (as a consequence that would probably see us kicked out of the Five eyes, however I note that even NZ is still allowed to play in that little anglo club).
It would mean limiting our ambition in three key budgetary sinkholes – cancelling the Hunter class (but building another 6-9 Hobarts), not proceeding with any AUKUS nuclear subs (or even reverting back to the Attack class as the total costs of that programme were a quarter of a trillion dollars over 70 odd years) and any foregoing any Lockheed Martin style missile defence system. It would also see us have to curtail the number of long range strike missiles that are currently on the menu.
But other than those big items, some savvy investments and costs savings could easily see us squeeze a very effective ADF in for about 1.5% of GNP.
If we were prepared to take an even bigger gamble then the Greens 1% of GNP budget would be possible.
For example, cutting our in service number of JSFs to 36, but otherwise maintaining the overall RAAF composition (plus investing heavily in autonomous drones) would certainly still deliver some effective bang for buck. And so on.
Neither of the above reflect not my preferred option (which is to strike out more independently and invest more heavily in defence spending), but frankly on this issue the greens are light years ahead of your bellicose call to arms.’
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What bellicose call to arms would that be? I have long supported a policy of heavily-armed neutrality. I have long supported the Swiss and Swedish models.
Bludger has long been the home of posters who reflexively bag the West, the US, the ADF and arms spending. It is automatic and it is gut for a whole suite of sneerers: the West is bad. Western politicians have cocked it up. Xi and Putin have been forced into bad behaviour by the West’s bad behaviour. yada yada yada.
Consistent with this anti-West gut instinct, just today we learned from a bludger that Biden is ‘immature’ FFS. What is Putin if he proposes to start a war? Immature? What is Xi if he proposes to start a war in Taiwan? Immature. My commentary on Xi and Putin is a matter of giving some balance to the bludger discussions. This leads to some interesting responses: sneers and snarks from the usual crowd. Blank incomprehension from others. Verballing from still others.
There is nothing bellicose about pointing out that Xi and Putin are imperialistic and militaristic. These are readily observable facts. Yet for some reason a significant number of people head straight to the West for an ‘explanation’. The sick joke is that while they go through the motions of providing ‘reasons’ imperialists go right ahead and expand. The West should have learned that from various empires over the past 500 years. Trade follows the flag. The Cross follows something or other… But somehow Xi and Putin are not like western imperialists over the past half millenium! Odd, is it not?
There is nothing bellicose about posing the most basic question: ‘Where and when will they halt themselves?’
As for a proper blend of defence and foreign policy spending, that is an important policy discussion to have. I don’t see any of that discussion anywhere, ATM.
Click to Edit – 9 minutes and 50 seconds
Just others. Uncommitted are excluded.
Firefox says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 9:51 pm
Can throw this one in the bin AFAIC Obviously an unfriendly sample for the Greens. Can always tell when that’s the case when there’s a big change for no apparent reason.
Change is cumulative. There is every reason for voters who want change to dump the Greens, who are a part of the status quo. In an election in which change is not in motion, the Greens will do just as they usually do. But when change is coming, Labor will win votes from all corners. Change is coming.
There’s nothing the Greens can do to forestall it this time. They will pay for their lies and their truculence.
Australia complains about China censoring posts because of the so-called Chinese government.
But when it comes to Social Media high court rulings there is total silence from the likes to BW!
Now everyone is silencing comments on social media.
‘Others’ will include the notional Lite. So the Greens will be shedding support to the petite-reactionaries. Nice. I hope the Lite run Senate lists. The Greens will be out business – will lose seats to Labor. The LNP will lose seats to the Lite.
Oh yes! I devoutly hope so.
It is a good point about the Teals though Citizen. If the electorate is really starting to take notice of these candidates that could indicate the change in the G vote is not just noise.
“As nice as it is seeing a quarter of the Greens vote disappear, I’ve little doubt it is noise.”
***
Yeah, it’s obviously not what I would like to see in a poll, but it certainly doesn’t worry me as this kind of thing has happened before where the Greens will have a large drop in a poll without any apparent reason, then a couple of weeks later it bounces back up to where it was.
A guess would be that the Greens are losing skin to the Teals and single issue parties like the Animal Justice Party.
It is a concern that Albanese has lost skin after what seemed on the face of it to have been a good fortnight and after a week in which Morrison’s performance is regarded by most observers as having been terrible.
Maybe rinsing hair and playing the ukulele is regarded as being more important than actually running a country.
Goodnight all.
Thank you William.
A thought on the small decline in Albo’s approval rating. Could it be caused by Dutton’s outburst accusing Labor of being influenced by China? That presumably didn’t affect Labor’s PV but may have adversely affected Albo’s approval given that he was personally in the firing line in the MSM.
The Newspoll is more drastic than the Greens results in the NSW by-elections but the trend appears to be in a similar direction.
Not sure if, psephologically, that compares apples with oranges.
Bystander
“ A mark out of ten? Eight for her and about a five for him.”
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I’ve not watched the 60 minutes thing, but if anyone gave that odious look-alike yank PM a pass mark (5 out of 10), I would call them a Murdoch employee (and that’s very hard to be lower).
The nellies would be more nervous than a prize turkey in November. Will they get rid of him? I very much doubt it. They’re stuck with him, come hell or high water. Dutton for the LOTO.
Morrison’s net-sat is negative 16. This is entirely compatible with the polling lows recorded for the LNP. There’s not much time left for Morrison to rescue the net-sat.
Goose is cooking.
Compared to the previous Newspoll polling period, this current Newspoll was polled at a time when Covid infections have quite clearly peaked and declined, and supply disruptions impacting supermarket shelves have substantially eased. Yet the ALP and LNP primaries haven’t moved. So there is some evidence that the current very poor polling of the LNP is not just a temporary burst of voter anger about January being wrecked by the Omicron wave. And the clock is running down now-3 months to go.
I wouldn’t bother reading too much into the personality contest stuff. It’s not zero-importance, (many of us made a mistake dismissing Shorten’s poor numbers), but it’s unlikely to be decisive.
More indicative probably on how well a smear and scare campaign might work.
Both leaders are low enough to be susceptible to a really well run negative campaign, but that’s likely to end up in a draw at worst for Albo.
Dutton will lose his seat if he is not careful. He won’t be LOTO then.
Firefox says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 9:59 pm
“As nice as it is seeing a quarter of the Greens vote disappear, I’ve little doubt it is noise.”
Not so much “noise” as a roar of approval. The Greens lost 2/5 votes in WA last year. They appear to have lost close to 1/5 in NSW yesterday. They appear to have shed 3/11 in a federal poll.
The Greens continue to alienate themselves from the electorate generally. What should they expect: that they might lie to everyone and still expect their vote to hold up. Morrison is in trouble because he lies. The Greens are in trouble for the same reason. They will lose share to the Lite and to Labor.
With the coalition PV looking solid at 34 it means the liberals must be around 30-31. How much, if any lower, can they go ? I would think 30-31 would be the basement for them despite how much more incompetence is put on display.
The “ popularity “ stats are simply noise. Perhaps the last sample had a few more Albanese friendly labor voters and this movement is just regression to the norm. Whatever the reason it is of little significance.
briefly
“The Greens continue to alienate themselves from the electorate generally.”
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It’s a wee bit amusing from a PB poster who seems desperate to drive people away from voting ALP.
I have often wondered whether briefly is funded by the black ops section of Menzies House.
Well I’d certainly roar with approval if the Greens suffered a big swing against at the same time the ALP rebuilt it’s primary and took government with an at least workable Senate.
But despite the nice drop in their PV in yesterday’s actual voting and this poll, I won’t be counting chickens. It’s just as likely to be back up to 10% in the next poll and this week’s number will be forgotten. And other polls are much more G friendly. If they don’t show similar movement in their next polls there just isn’t enough data points to be getting excited over.
I was being kind.
The party room is going to be much less concerned about the personal numbers than a primary vote of 34%
“that they might”
***
*swoon*
Morrison must have got a pity vote for his personal figures – he’s very good at playing the victim. I.e – the accidental leader…
Rakali says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:16 pm
briefly
“The Greens continue to alienate themselves from the electorate generally.”
———-
It’s a wee bit amusing from a PB poster who seems desperate to drive people away from voting ALP.
I have often wondered whether briefly is funded by the black ops section of Menzies House.
Nothing I’ve posted could have driven you away from Labor. You’ve always been Labor-phobic. Nothing has changed. You might as well be a Lib as a Green. Like the Greens, you want Labor to lose.
Shortens personality problems with the public were there was a sense that he do anything to be PM…. and also he would govern in the same way, bowing to the Greens on many issues….
After the Bob Brown Caravan invaded central Queensland with a circus celebrating the end of the local industry, being associated with Greens was a toxic mix north of Brisbane.
Huge swings then occurred, double digit swings in 2 electorates….. All over regional Queensland… the swings in Brisbane and Gold Coast were nowhere near as large.
It also didn’t play well in the rest of regional Australia, hence the loss of the two seats in Tasmania and big swings elsewhere.
Bystander
I was being kind.
———
Haha, fair enough …. But surely you can find more worthy charities? 🙂
Interestingly that PV for the leaders is +3 and -3 while the greens lost 3.
William
“ The primaries shown add to 86, giving 14 for ‘others’ and (presumably) uncommitted.”
“Just others. Uncommitted are excluded.”
Thanks. In that case the 41% for Labor is very good news. The Teals may be stripping votes off Liberals and Greens but not really Labor.
Matt Burke@matttburkeHeadline figure: Labor 10-points in front on 2pp
The headline:
Murdoch living in alternative reality.
B.S. Fairman:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:07 pm
[‘Dutton will lose his seat if he is not careful. He won’t be LOTO then.’]
That I think is doubtful, his margin 4.64%, the good people of Dickson perhaps seeing him as a future PM, where they’ll be fettered with prime ministerial gifts, and waging war with Russia & China. I’m almost sure Dutts is the good cop?
The latest Newspoll posts a 3% drop in support for the Greens…..and the Greens “haters” on this website are salivating that the demise of the Greens is nigh…….as like minded Greens “haters” have done throughout the 30 years the Greens have been present on the Australian political scene…..
I spent some hours on Saturday 12 February helping at a Greens operated second hand book stall at a community market in an eastern suburb of Melbourne. During this exercise we had a steady stream of people coming up and expressing their support for the Greens – quite unsolicited. One usual Liberal voter, an older woman said there was no way she could vote Liberal in 2022 because of Scott Morrison’s unacceptable attitude towards women. She said she did not know who to vote for this year…..and added that her two fellow women volunteers on a neighbouring charity stall felt like her. She also said she thought that the Greens would do well in the present political environment. Admittedly, not a representative sample, but an example of what may well be going on quietly in many parts of Australia: ordinary men and women of all age groups, longing for a renewal or maybe a rebirthing of a real democracy: where those elected to serve in federal Parliament, do so with integrity, honesty and who are not beholden to sectional interests and work for the public good. No one likes to be misled, lied to or treated with disrespect. The Morrison government has engaged in the former manner and does not deserve to stay in office. And one further note about the suburban Saturday morning community market in Melbourne’s east: the incumbent Liberal federal member (Michael Sukkar) and his supporters, were nowhere to be scene….the usual Liberal market stand was uncharacteristically not occupied. However, an election billboard promoting Michael Sukkar within the Deakin electorate had a big selfie of him etc…..a small patch of blue in the lower right corner but NO mention that he was a Liberal???? Does that not suggest that the Liberal operatives sense that an electoral reckoning is around the corner for their faction riddled party and it is every Liberal incumbent for him or herself to survive that outcome??
@Mavis – 4.6% in Queensland isn’t going to be enough if the swing is actually on.
God is smiling on us all that there’s another sitting week, everyone will be there to overturn the party rules, do a spill, call an election and then have a wipeout.
I’ve been waiting a while for this.
Robbo says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:38 pm
It’s a pity you chose not to disabuse the voter …to point out to them that the Greens are Labor-phobic; that they run a surrogate pro-reactionary campaign 24/7. You could have explained that a vote for a Green is a vote for turmoil, for sabotage, for collusion with the LNP. The Greens are a confidence trick in action.
We now have the more detailed graphic of the Newspoll.
Night all.
doyley:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:15 pm
Sound assessment.
I feel that the Greens vote is understated given the fury at Labor in a lot of progressive seats where the Greens do well. I’d say the poll likely doesn’t account for the RDA bill shenanigans that Labor pulled out; and the next poll should see the Greens vote rebound to about 12%, where it will likely be for the election.
Dennis Shanahan writing the headlines?
A rising ‘Others’ vote could be indicating the rise in support for the ‘independent liberals’ or ‘voices of’ candidates.
Given they represent a bigger threat to the Liberals than Labor it might be good news for Labor, but difficult to breakdown in polls.
Not much more than noise to report with this Newspoll. It looks like the steady move from the LNP to the ALP over the last six months or so (around 48/52 in mid-2021 to around 45/55 now) is largely baked in, and that’s basically the starting point for this election year, with about three months to go until Election Day. Primaries look to be around 36% for the LNP, 39% or so for Labor, the requisite 10% for the Greens, and about 15% others.
I’m constantly bemused by how many on this site try to force meaning into small statistical variations from one poll to the next. In truth such short-term changes mean nothing, and are almost certainly down to differences in sampling and nothing much else. As the old saying goes, though, the trend is your friend, and in that respect the last eight months or so of polling – with the ALP PV and 2PP continually firming – look good for Labor, to the point where are are far better placed than they were this time three years ago.
There’s still time for Morrison to pull off another miracle, of course, but time is quickly running out for the Coalition, with every day that they don’t start recovering being another day where they keep falling further behind. They probably have one last shot in the locker, with the Budget late next month, but pretty much everything needs to go right for them from here.
At the end of last year, I regarded Labor as the slight favourite to win the election, perhaps with a probability lead of 55/45. I think things have moved a bit their way over the summer, and I’d now rate the ALP probability lead at closer to 65/35.
I assume the 3 points the Greens lost went to the independents/teals. The rest have no change. The Greens that moved to the teals are probably just as likely to preference the Liberals or Labor as they did before. Status quo as far as I can see.
katharina mildred says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:49 pm
I feel that the Greens vote is understated given the fury at Labor in a lot of progressive seats where the Greens do well. I’d say the poll likely doesn’t account for the RDA bill shenanigans that Labor pulled out; and the next poll should see the Greens vote rebound to about 12%, where it will likely be for the election.
The Greens ran a Q-like agitation over the RD bills. They are quite prepared to exploit the fears of LGBQTI people if it means they can lie about Labor. They did lie about Labor. They continue to lie about Labor. They continue to exploit the anxieties of those who face the prejudice of religious reactionaries. The Greens are hitch-hikers on reactionary malice.
The Greens were faced with the prospect of voting with Labor and the Liberal dissidents to amend and/or defeat the bills in the Senate. Morrison and the Greens have spared themselves that ignominy. But they will not be content. They will continue to lie about Labor. They are the local franchisees of the Q-Left. They should be run out the Parliament.
@Hugo – I dare say you’re underselling the task Morrison has.
@Sohar – KB makes the point well there aren’t enough teal/climate indies running for them to be reason the Green PV would drop like this. FTR – I think it is likely noise.
Vichygirl@vichygirl·1hScott Morrison: “I’ve worn down the carpet beside my bed praying for all those souls” referring to the people affected by Covid.
Maybe he should’ve spent less time praying & more time organising vaccines, RATs & proper quarantine facilities so that people didn’t needlessly die