Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8

Essential Research gives the Coalition its least bad numbers in a while, and promises fortnightly voting intention results going forward.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention numbers, and that it will henceforth abandon its practice of holding them back and publish them promptly every fortnight. The latest set of numbers is a fair bit better for the Coalition than its recent form from other pollsters, with primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2%, independents 5% and 8% undecided.

If the undecided are removed and preference flows from the 2019 election applied, this gives Labor a two-party preferred lead a shade higher than 51-49. Essential Research instead gives us its “2PP+” measure which does not exclude the undecided, and comes out with Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 46% and undecided on 8%. The pollster’s website includes three further sets of hitherto unpublished results going back to the start of December, which show these latest results to be stronger for the Coalition than last fortnight’s, which had them on 36% of the primary vote to Labor’s 37%, with the Greens on 8% and One Nation and the United Australia Party on 3% each.

The poll also finds the Coalition with better ratings for COVID-19 management than a fortnight ago, its good rating up five to 40% and poor down four to 34%. It also finds 57% believe the definition of fully vaccinated should be three shots, compared with 31% who would settle for two. Positive ratings for the state governments, with the usual caveat that sample sizes are small in all cases but especially so for the smaller states, have New South Wales up seven to 44%, Victoria down five to 42%, Queensland up ten to 56%, Western Australia down two to 64% and South Australia up ten to 53%. These too can be found already on the Essential Research website, with the rest of the report to follow later today. The poll had a sample of 1069 and was conducted, presumably, from Thursday to Sunday.

Roy Morgan also eventually came good on the federal poll that it teased in its newsletter last week, from which the two-party headline had Labor’s lead edging out to 56.5-43.5 from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Coalition 33% (down one-and-a-half points), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 11.5% (down half), One Nation 3.5% (up half) and United Australia Party 2% (up one-and-a-half). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (down from 58-42 a fortnight ago for a swing of about 6%), 59-41 in Victoria (steady, swing of about 6%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a reversal of last time for a swing of about 10%), 55.5-44.5 in Western Australia (compared with 51-49 last time for a swing of about 11%), 64-36 in South Australia (61.5-38.5 last time for a swing of about 13%) and 61.5-38.5 from the very small Tasmanian sample.

The poll was conducted from Monday, January 17 to Sunday, January 30, suggesting the pollster has abandoned its past practice of polling on weekends, online and by telephone from a sample of 2783.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,299 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8”

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  1. It’s unvaccinated idiots like those currently infesting Canberra who are posing a risk to those in aged care . The more disease there is out there the more aged care staff get infected and furloughed, meaning less care and curtailed family visits.

  2. Just checked FB and according to a rabid freedom protestor they are expecting 800,000 in Canberra this weekend. I hope this is wishful thinking but note there are quite a few god botherers supporting him , one of those my Pentecostal niece.
    I’m a great believer in ‘nipping things in the bud’ and wish they had stepped in earlier- think the authorities will be overwhelmed.
    NZ’s answer to protestors on the lawns of the Beehive was to turn the sprinklers on.

  3. Vensays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 2:32 pm

    Granny Annysays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:28 am
    Last night Steely was trying to reinforce the conservative meme that those uppity Chinese can only be kept in their place if we retain the Morrison/Joyce/Dutton Government. At his vital Quad meeting, Mr Blinken from the USA was telling us that tension around Ukraine in Europe would flow into the Pacific. In case you miss the link, that is where we live. Crank up the fear, vote Conservative.

    Many here will have been alive as the Vietnam War escalated, a principal driver being a bullshit incident in the Gulf of Tonkin.

    There is theory that the incident in the Gulf of Tonkin was as fake as Iraq WMDs.
    Poroti, Beguiled
    Is it proved?

    __________________________________________________________
    Yes, pretty much. Famous American whistle-blower Daniel Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers in 1971. The documents showed that in 1965, American navy ships deliberately sailed into North Vietnamese waters in the hope (fulfilled) of provoking an attack. This was used as justification for drastically increasing American involvement in the Vietnam war, including the bombing of north Vietnam.
    I’m proud to say that my father, at the time of the attack, expressed doubts about the American story and said the North Vietnamese attack sounded like the Americans had deliberately provoked it.

  4. @Quasar – There’s NOWHERE near those figures.

    I would guess 6,000- 10,000 – 15,000 if I were being generous.

    That’s still way too many, but there’s RAMPAGING stupidity online in terms of numbers being claimed.

    I now have reports from friends being harassed, including being followed in their car. I’ve seen them standing over pub security and patrons.

    While a majority are benign simpletons … there is a small core of dangerous agitants who are only here to cause trouble.

  5. ‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 5:28 pm

    Vensays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 2:32 pm

    Granny Annysays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:28 am
    Last night Steely was trying to reinforce the conservative meme that those uppity Chinese can only be kept in their place if we retain the Morrison/Joyce/Dutton Government. At his vital Quad meeting, Mr Blinken from the USA was telling us that tension around Ukraine in Europe would flow into the Pacific. In case you miss the link, that is where we live. Crank up the fear, vote Conservative.

    Many here will have been alive as the Vietnam War escalated, a principal driver being a bullshit incident in the Gulf of Tonkin.

    There is theory that the incident in the Gulf of Tonkin was as fake as Iraq WMDs.
    Poroti, Beguiled
    Is it proved?
    __________________________________________________________
    Yes, pretty much. Famous American whistle-blower Daniel Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers in 1971. The documents showed that in 1965, American navy ships deliberately sailed into North Vietnamese waters in the hope (fulfilled) of provoking an attack. This was used as justification for drastically increasing American involvement in the Vietnam war, including the bombing of north Vietnam.
    I’m proud to say that my father, at the time of the attack, expressed doubts about the American story and said the North Vietnamese attack sounded like the Americans had deliberately provoked it.’
    ====================================================

    It is just as well that the Vietnamese Commies only ever told the truth, only ever fought according to the Geneva Conventions and only ever stuck to its agreements. Otherwise those who criticized the US for perfidy would actually have to give some attention to some very atrocious behaviour by the North Vietnamese Communists.

  6. Bludging @ #3072 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 4:36 pm

    Socrates says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 2:16 pm
    LR/Kakuru

    “ So do I. And mythology too. Greek mythology is fascinating.”

    The idea of bloody human sacrifice – of ritualised, public murder – lies at the centre of Christianity. At its thoroughly degraded heart, there is a truly astonishingly bizarre idea – a living human should be put to death satisfy the imagined wishes of a non-existent deity or deities.

    This is the essential depravity of what is euphemistically described as an organised religion. This is appeasement paid in blood. It is the celebration of death, all told. How is it possible that so many have fallen for such debauchery for so long?

    As I posted in reply to Victoria re QAnon:

    She said: ” I still can’t get my head around the fact that they have been so easily manipulated and brainwashed.”
    I said:
    Just like all christians, muslims, mormons, hindus, scientologists, jews, eastern orthodox, christadelphians, jehovah’s witnesses, hillsongers, pentacostals, southern baptists, scottish presbyterians, cargo cultists, wiccans and so on.

    All of those who say they believe fantastical make-believe about non-existent supernatural beings. What is the difference, apart from pure numbers of adherents? The irrational nonsense behind them all is just as obvious and ridiculous to any reasonably intelligent, educated human being, but a substantial proportion of people have the ability to switch off rationality in relation to a set of crackpot nonsense as long as they label it as their ‘religion’, and our laws reflect that. Our High Court has deemed that scientology and christianity are equivalent.

    It plainly started tens of thousands of years ago with curious, inventive, adaptable humans seeking explanations for natural systems for which there was no obvious ’cause’. Why was the environment, in which they fought for survival, structured and operating in they way that it did? No plain answers. Invent them! Spirits, gods, demons, rainbow serpents, dragons, jehovah! If the answers appeal, they become the accepted ‘truth’, are elaborated upon, and are taught to children, and become a part of the social contract, of the shared values and practices of the nomadic group, and part of the reason that the group becomes effective, and survives and evolves. It persists when the group settles, because it provides a source of power to the holders of ‘the knowledge’, the priestly class, and a way of controlling the population for the leaders, the imams, the popes, the archbishops, the fuehrers. It is a way of separating ‘us’ from ‘them’, and cementing fighting and voting blocs.

    I would therefore suggest that vulnerability to such transparent scams is built into human beings. It is obvious to me that people have a very high propensity to go along with a mass delusion, especially when this leads to acceptance as part of a group of self reinforcing co-dupes, and the opportunity to sing, and emotionally let go in company, under the ‘benevolent’ eye of a ‘spiritual leader’, who coincidentally benefits in cash, adulation and the ability to exercise power. Not much different to football fanaticism, or pop concerts, really.

    The spiritual leader, of course, has no particular need to believe the irrational rot that is being fed to the ‘believers’, particularly if he (they are almost always male) has a ‘holy book’ or some other cache of ‘true pronouncements’ to hold up, and fall back on. It does not matter how inane the book is, just so long as it is pronounced to be holy. It has been found to help mightily in this endeavour if those who contradict the ‘holy’ idea are tortured or summarily executed, as was the case with regard to the bible until relatively recently, and still is, with regard to the koran.

    Remember:
    Deuteronomy 20:16-17
    English Standard Version

    “16 But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, 17 but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded.

    The completely unambiguous word of god! And christians actually insist that they believe the ‘word of god’ description for the silly book!

    I know how silly it is. I have actually read it! Unlike almost all christians.

  7. The RW anti-vaxxers & hangers on were planning to harass adults and 5-11yo’s at a mass vaccination day for children at the AIS in Canberra today. I haven’t seen any reports that the characters went ahead with their threat bit it would be a really low act if they did.

    It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow afternoon when the deadline for their camping permit at the Exhibition Park expires and police are expected to give them a nudge. Apparently some intend to head to the Queanbeyan showground – doubtless the good citizens of QBN are thrilled.

  8. Boerwar
    Read ‘Vietnam the 10,000 Day War’ . You’ll better appreciate the perfidious actions of the French and US. Ho and the boys were pro US. The US had after all helped them vs the Japanese. It took a special kind of dumbarsery to screw that up. Which they did royally. What a shame so many millions had to die and be maimed because of a fuck up.

  9. yabbasays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 5:45 pm

    Brilliant post!

    I hope you don’t mind if I use it, or parts of it when I get into arguments with those who believe in superior beings.

  10. citizen , they left the vaccination centre alone from my latest information.
    I’m not confident that they will be able to clear the campers though, the police etc will have their work cut out.

  11. If you looking for genocide in the name of the load, the first testament has descriptions of genocides executed, in the name of the lord of cause.
    The Jews have no hope of keeping the horror of Nazi Germany alive. They have recorded their efforts in the first testament, all forgotten

  12. Interestingly, Yabba, if you substitute “Pharaoh” for the word “Lord” (which was a term – or at least its Egyptian translation was – that referred to Pharaoh) the Bible makes a helluva lot more sense. e.g. the Hittites, Amorites etc. were all enemies or subjugated territories of the Egyptians at some point.

    And Pharaoh was considered a “god” to the Egyptians at various stages of their history (though not all).

    As a an exercise in time-wasting, I tried the substitution for the first 5 books of the old testament. Was interesting.

  13. zoomster @ #3184 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 4:47 pm

    Making an animal sacrifice as part of festivities is perfectly sensible.

    Peasant farmers tend to either eat the young animals (veal, lamb) which there isn’t much point raising, or the older animals who are basically past their prime.

    The latter provide more food (particularly in the days prior to refrigeration) than one family can eat before it goes off.

    Sacrificing it to your Gods gives the whole community a reason to then share in eating it.

    And in the Catholic Mass, the sacrificial lamb Jesus’s death is again celebrated and the body and blood shared.

  14. The Age 12/02
    Mr Pallas claimed her comments were worrying as they go “to her state of mind”, comments Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said were dismissive and shameful.
    _____________________
    FFS Pallas, after everything that has happened over the past few years you still don’t get it.
    What the hell is the matter with male politicians in this country. It seems like everytime a female politician claims she is a victim of bullying her state of mind is immediately questioned.

  15. And in another episode of “Is This A Joke”, under increasing pressure from the UK and US about action on Climate Change:

    A spokesperson for Taylor said:

    Australia welcomes the US’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region.

    Australia is one of only a handful of countries to set out a detailed plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

    Our 2030 target is fixed, and our commitment to the Australian people is to meet and beat it. The latest official forecasts show we will deliver on that commitment, beating our 2030 target by up to 9%.

    (guardian live stream)

  16. Been There @ #3116 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 5:59 pm

    yabbasays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 5:45 pm

    Brilliant post!

    I hope you don’t mind if I use it, or parts of it when I get into arguments with those who believe in superior beings.

    Thanks. I’m not sure about the brilliant, but ta all the same.

    Be my guest. Asking bible bearers to read out Deuteronomy 20 16:17 can be quite stimulating.

  17. yabbasays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 6:49 pm

    “Asking bible bearers to read out Deuteronomy 20 16:17 can be quite stimulating.”

    That’s the bit I’ve highlighted.

    Thanks.

  18. Scomocchio saying the vaccine mandates are all the States?

    You can take the Liar out of Waverly, but you can’t take the lies out of the Liar.

    Want to go overseas? You have to prove your double vaccination. This is the Morrison government mandate under the Biosecurity Act.

    Want to get on a domestic flight? You have to wear a mask. Another Biosecurity Act mandate, signed of by Greg Hunt.

    I’m sure the MSM will pick this porky from the Prime Porker.

  19. Taylormade @ #2962 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 6:41 pm

    The Age 12/02
    Mr Pallas claimed her comments were worrying as they go “to her state of mind”, comments Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said were dismissive and shameful.
    _____________________
    FFS Pallas, after everything that has happened over the past few years you still don’t get it.
    What the hell is the matter with male politicians in this country. It seems like everytime a female politician claims she is a victim of bullying her state of mind is immediately questioned.

    What an political opportunist you are. That woman is a puppet of Adem Somyurek. Everyone knows it. You know it. You just won’t admit it. You’d rather use that woman as a political tool to beat up on Dan Andrews and to advance the Liberal Party. Disgraceful and dishonest.

  20. Zerlo @ #3237 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:05 pm

    ABC has disabled its commentson Facebook page

    Thus violating free speech and its charter.

    I don’t think it does. Also does that recent court case (the specifics escape me), increase the risk for media organisations to allow comments under new articles (I know comments on their Facebook page isn’t exactly the same, but I don’t think that has been tested yet)?

  21. Donation made. Happy to help where these absolute deadshits which Morrison all but encouraged today with his “It’s the states, not us” bullshit ruined their day.

  22. zztopless says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:08 pm

    The change comes after a landmark ruling in Australia in 2019, which found news media companies were liable for defamatory comments posted by users on the companies’ public Facebook pages, leading to media companies calling for a change to the law, which had put pressure on staff resourcing on moderation.

    ABC HAS UNLIMITED FUNDING US TAX PAYERS.

    Also no one was being abusive

    They were allowing comments then disabling because liberal government

  23. Zerlo @ #3241 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:12 pm

    zztopless says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:08 pm

    The change comes after a landmark ruling in Australia in 2019, which found news media companies were liable for defamatory comments posted by users on the companies’ public Facebook pages, leading to media companies calling for a change to the law, which had put pressure on staff resourcing on moderation.

    ABC HAS UNLIMITED FUNDING US TAX PAYERS.

    Also no one was being abusive

    They were allowing comments then disabling because liberal government

    It doesn’t have unlimited funding and having to allocate extra resources to moderate comments doesn’t seem like a good use of tax-payer funds to me.

    I do think the law needs to change to give media companies something like Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act in the US. I also agree that the ABC has become more influenced by the Liberal party – which is just the consequences of them winning too many elections…

  24. citizen @ #2978 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:25 pm

    What a contrast today- Morrison telling the anti-vaxxers (wtte) “Don’t bother me, go and harrass the state premiers” while Albo says (wtte) “Go home, find the true facts and respect the people who have been protecting you from Covid”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-12/thousands-of-protesters-against-mandatory-vaccination/100825478

    Morrison: Follower, of Angry Ants.
    Albanese: Leader

    Could the difference between the two men be more stark?

  25. Boarwar at 5:44.

    No one is saying that the North Vietnamese are beyong critisism. Like totalitarian regimes everywhere, they rank with the worst of the worst.

    If the yanks hadn’t lied and then engaged in a pointless war there would have been less atrocities committed by both sides. And then, not satisfied with that debacle the Western Alliance lied some more in order to start and lose another fight in the Middle East, and once again, conservative liars in Australia followed them.

    And now they appear to be cranking up another go, either in Eastern Europe or the South China Sea, and once again they can only use lies to justify their behaviour. They will be battling to win in either sphere but if they both take off at once the consequences will be catastrophic.

    As always, it won’t we the lying arseholes who have to fight their war, they leave that to the proles while they stay home and get rich supplying the weapons.

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