The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention numbers, and that it will henceforth abandon its practice of holding them back and publish them promptly every fortnight. The latest set of numbers is a fair bit better for the Coalition than its recent form from other pollsters, with primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2%, independents 5% and 8% undecided.
If the undecided are removed and preference flows from the 2019 election applied, this gives Labor a two-party preferred lead a shade higher than 51-49. Essential Research instead gives us its “2PP+” measure which does not exclude the undecided, and comes out with Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 46% and undecided on 8%. The pollster’s website includes three further sets of hitherto unpublished results going back to the start of December, which show these latest results to be stronger for the Coalition than last fortnight’s, which had them on 36% of the primary vote to Labor’s 37%, with the Greens on 8% and One Nation and the United Australia Party on 3% each.
The poll also finds the Coalition with better ratings for COVID-19 management than a fortnight ago, its good rating up five to 40% and poor down four to 34%. It also finds 57% believe the definition of fully vaccinated should be three shots, compared with 31% who would settle for two. Positive ratings for the state governments, with the usual caveat that sample sizes are small in all cases but especially so for the smaller states, have New South Wales up seven to 44%, Victoria down five to 42%, Queensland up ten to 56%, Western Australia down two to 64% and South Australia up ten to 53%. These too can be found already on the Essential Research website, with the rest of the report to follow later today. The poll had a sample of 1069 and was conducted, presumably, from Thursday to Sunday.
Roy Morgan also eventually came good on the federal poll that it teased in its newsletter last week, from which the two-party headline had Labor’s lead edging out to 56.5-43.5 from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Coalition 33% (down one-and-a-half points), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 11.5% (down half), One Nation 3.5% (up half) and United Australia Party 2% (up one-and-a-half). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (down from 58-42 a fortnight ago for a swing of about 6%), 59-41 in Victoria (steady, swing of about 6%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a reversal of last time for a swing of about 10%), 55.5-44.5 in Western Australia (compared with 51-49 last time for a swing of about 11%), 64-36 in South Australia (61.5-38.5 last time for a swing of about 13%) and 61.5-38.5 from the very small Tasmanian sample.
The poll was conducted from Monday, January 17 to Sunday, January 30, suggesting the pollster has abandoned its past practice of polling on weekends, online and by telephone from a sample of 2783.