Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8

Essential Research gives the Coalition its least bad numbers in a while, and promises fortnightly voting intention results going forward.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention numbers, and that it will henceforth abandon its practice of holding them back and publish them promptly every fortnight. The latest set of numbers is a fair bit better for the Coalition than its recent form from other pollsters, with primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2%, independents 5% and 8% undecided.

If the undecided are removed and preference flows from the 2019 election applied, this gives Labor a two-party preferred lead a shade higher than 51-49. Essential Research instead gives us its “2PP+” measure which does not exclude the undecided, and comes out with Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 46% and undecided on 8%. The pollster’s website includes three further sets of hitherto unpublished results going back to the start of December, which show these latest results to be stronger for the Coalition than last fortnight’s, which had them on 36% of the primary vote to Labor’s 37%, with the Greens on 8% and One Nation and the United Australia Party on 3% each.

The poll also finds the Coalition with better ratings for COVID-19 management than a fortnight ago, its good rating up five to 40% and poor down four to 34%. It also finds 57% believe the definition of fully vaccinated should be three shots, compared with 31% who would settle for two. Positive ratings for the state governments, with the usual caveat that sample sizes are small in all cases but especially so for the smaller states, have New South Wales up seven to 44%, Victoria down five to 42%, Queensland up ten to 56%, Western Australia down two to 64% and South Australia up ten to 53%. These too can be found already on the Essential Research website, with the rest of the report to follow later today. The poll had a sample of 1069 and was conducted, presumably, from Thursday to Sunday.

Roy Morgan also eventually came good on the federal poll that it teased in its newsletter last week, from which the two-party headline had Labor’s lead edging out to 56.5-43.5 from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Coalition 33% (down one-and-a-half points), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 11.5% (down half), One Nation 3.5% (up half) and United Australia Party 2% (up one-and-a-half). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (down from 58-42 a fortnight ago for a swing of about 6%), 59-41 in Victoria (steady, swing of about 6%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a reversal of last time for a swing of about 10%), 55.5-44.5 in Western Australia (compared with 51-49 last time for a swing of about 11%), 64-36 in South Australia (61.5-38.5 last time for a swing of about 13%) and 61.5-38.5 from the very small Tasmanian sample.

The poll was conducted from Monday, January 17 to Sunday, January 30, suggesting the pollster has abandoned its past practice of polling on weekends, online and by telephone from a sample of 2783.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,299 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8”

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  1. Amused by Willoughby. Still early, but surely that’s got to be hurting the Lib leadership confidence. Particularly those in Lib seats being targeted by reasonably strong independents.

  2. ABC Election analyst Antony Green says at this stage he is calling the seat of Bega for Labor.

    He says Labor have a “substantial lead” that he doesn’t see turning around.

    “There is nothing to indicate anything other than a big enough swing for Labor to win Bega.”

  3. Can’t really blame the ABC on this one. The comment sections on most big Facebook posts tend to be cesspools of personal abuse, general idiocy, and horrifying crimes against the English language.

  4. Granny Anny @ #3248 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:34 pm

    As always, it won’t we the lying arseholes who have to fight their war, they leave that to the proles while they stay home and get rich supplying the weapons.

    And food and all the other stuff.

    Halliburton, the company formerly run by the American vice-president, Dick Cheney, was yesterday threatening to become a political liability for President George Bush’s administration as it became embroiled in a fresh row over work carried out in Iraq.

    The oil services and logistics company said it had suspended billing the US army for catering services in the Middle East, in the face of allegations of massive overcharging.

    Halliburton has more than $9bn (£4.8bn) worth of contracts in Iraq, more than any other company, but it has been plagued by claims of cronyism, corruption and financial mismanagement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/feb/18/iraq.usa

  5. Heard 5 minutes ago on the Channel 7 Olympics coverage of the team long track pursuit (name?) wtte, “The idea is you put your strongest skater in front to break wind.” If the commentator knew what he said he gave no indication.

  6. South Australian state election will be interesting next month, see if there will be a swing against the Liberal party and how much will be blame on Morrison and his cronies

    The Victorian lib/nats would be getting worried watching these swings against the lib/nats

  7. Though raised a Christian, at ten I had issues with the “Holy Ghost”. That said, attempting to turn people off of their religious beliefs is tantamount to converting Tories into Greens, no matter the strength of their argument. It’s a waste of space!

  8. I think we can say with a fairly high degree of certainty that Fiona Kotvojs’ not going to be getting too many more opportunities as the endorsed Liberal candidate in any future elections.

  9. ratsak @ #3258 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:10 pm

    I think we can say with a fairly high degree of certainty that Fiona Kotvojs’ not going to be getting too many more opportunities as the endorsed Liberal candidate in any future elections.

    It’s obviously prejudice because of her name. Should have changed it to Brown. Kot means faeces in German/Austrian. Vojs – no idea. 🙂

  10. This is what shits me about professional charities. You do the right thing every now and then and you get swamped by begging letters from other charities. My email has been utterly flooded in the last hour or so with these fucking parasites. It is blindingly obvious that these charities swap databases.

  11. Fred would be an outlier. Even giving blood, they want another one on the way out. There has to be a limit. Or a massive part of the population is turning the other cheek.

  12. Greens first prefs

    Strathfield 7.7%
    Willoughby 12.2% (n0 ALP candidate)
    Monaro 8.2%
    Bega 8.5%

    They really need to manage out Adam Bandt

  13. When I was a lad, “Zum kotzen!” meant “Makes you throw up!” but perhaps that’s just what they told the youngster I then was.

  14. Today I viewed a very special doco on Netflix. It pertains to Callas, titled “Maria by Callas.” While no fan of her voice, it was brilliant as it was her personal interpretation, via her diaries, personal letters, memoirs, archival footage of her performances, interviews – no voice-over. An example, I think it was La Scala in ’58, where she was scheduled to perform Lucia, guests included the then-president. She performed the first act, but couldn’t continue due to bronchitis, but the media put it down to impetuousness. Nothing really changes.

  15. Anyone else watching Barnaby Joyce get ambushed by David Speers on ABC? He’s loooooose with reality. Started rambling about boarding schools when asked about the text messages to Brittany Higgins.

  16. Barnyard represents a portion of the Australian public that needs to lay off the grog and start eating salad. Sure the lighting is bad, but my god that man doesn’t look healthy.

  17. yabba:

    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    Mavis @ #3257 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:08 pm

    [‘That was the ghost that raped Mary, wasn’t it? She must have been scared stiff. Quite likely ended up with PTSD.’]

    I’ve yet to work it out. But via your posts on the subject, do you really think you’re going to change minds?

  18. I am pleased with the way the cards are falling tonight. NSW no solace for Morrison. The Teals will give blue ribbon Coalition sinecures a jolly good shake. The Greens had better come to the party.

  19. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:34 pm
    Greens first prefs

    Strathfield 7.7%
    Willoughby 12.2% (n0 ALP candidate)
    Monaro 8.2%
    Bega 8.5%

    The Labor voters of Willoughby clearly prefer an Independent to a Green. That makes absolutely perfect sense.

    If the Greens scrape up, say, 8% at the federal election in House seats – and rather less in the Senate – they will struggle to hold their Senate seat. So far so good. They do not deserve to hold any seats at all in the Commonwealth Parliament.

  20. Mavis
    Today I viewed a very special doco on Netflix. It pertains to Callas, titled “Maria by Callas.”

    I’ve been hanging out for that one for ages. Alas, no Netflix here yet.

    Fans of hers who also happened to work in the area of speech pathology went back and analysed some of the recordings from the bronchitis performance, looking at the sonic patterns. They concluded that that she was genuinely sick. It’s clearly a translation, but the gist is here: https://greekreporter.com/2010/12/15/italian-doctors-claim-maria-callas-died-of-a-degenerative-disease/

    She seems to have had an underlying autoimmune disease that made it increasingly difficult for her to physically do what she needed to do. More here: https://www.smh.com.au/world/why-callas-lost-that-voice-20021015-gdfq38.html

  21. Mavis @ #3272 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:54 pm

    yabba:

    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    Mavis @ #3257 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:08 pm

    [‘That was the ghost that raped Mary, wasn’t it? She must have been scared stiff. Quite likely ended up with PTSD.’]

    I’ve yet to work it out. But via your posts on the subject, do you really think you’re going to change minds?

    Of course not. Just having fun. The long one earlier was a ramble about the conclusions I have come to after studying and reading about anthropology, history, comparative religion, and just observing the way that people behave. I have actually read the primary sources of five major religions, and many other well sourced academic books and articles. I read voraciously, all the time. Currently ‘The Road to Reality’ by Roger Penrose, and ‘Klara and the Sun’ by Kazuo Ishiguro. I recommend both.

    For many people religion is plainly a big part of their self image, and they view any discussion of it, whatsoever, as a personal attack. A few on here come close to foaming at the mouth when the monumental internal contradictions and evil consequences that their religious adherence throws up are pointed out.

    I do find it fascinating that otherwise apparently thoughtful people are able to compartmentalise obvious nonsense, and simply ignore it, by somehow mentally filing it under ‘religious belief’, and that they are not willing to even try to justify such beliefs, but just scream ‘bigot’ and call one’s ancestry, sanity and mental capacities into serious question as soon as they are challenged. (Or that evil shitstain George Pell or the recalcitrant RPPS is mentioned). I have been called a moron on here lots of times by such persons. Not actually true.

  22. Roy Orbisonsays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:25 pm
    This is what shits me about professional charities. You do the right thing every now and then and you get swamped by begging letters from other charities. My email has been utterly flooded in the last hour or so with these fucking parasites. It is blindingly obvious that these charities swap databases.
    _____________________
    When filling out the form, call yourself “Roy {insert Name of organisation here} Orbison”
    When organisation B starts emailing you with organisation As ID in the name…

  23. Canberra anti Vaxx protest campers Information for our 10,0000 peeple.
    Update

    8. Would the person who stole Mrs Kant-Kounts teeth from portalou three please return them to the orifice (open between 9. 64am and 9.64am). She can’t join in channteeng ‘Stop the Novak’ without them (sounds like “no dack’s ” when she does it now and it is triggering too many full moons from protest participants). Lets shew abet of class eh !!

    9. Speakeeng of portaloos, there has been an outbreak of couples ticking “doing it in a portalou” off their bucket list in recent days. STOP it, Just STOP.

    10. Todays macchucklles happy meal winner is ticket number 1,298. Remember tickets for tomorrows draw are only $29.00 for two tickets , a bargain if ever there was won, sorry wun. Campers are reminded happy meals do not come with kuloreeng peencils, get your own ya tight a.. or still them from tent 43 (that biarch wolf whistled my mrs yesteday).

    11. Campers are no longer allowed to dig bush toilits between tents, even if people are still defying rule 9 and taking an hour to get it done. I lost one of my new white thongs standing in one in the dark last nite. My dog it still licking my big toe, Mrs K made me sleep outside and now she is wearing a bloody mask.

    13 We have been informed by ASIO that burn outs and donuts are not allowed on the camping ground so Maccas has offered their car park for tonight’s entertainment. Kids entertainment provided by Q Anon youth club and Brisbane’s Citipointe Christian College choir.

    Tonite’s car park gate prize is a BFC discount voucher presented by Pauline Hanson and a stuffed Koala which your kids can take out bush and target practice with the SLR hidden under the canvas in my ute.

    Finally, tonite’s lotto lucky numbers 46, 46.5, 53, 94, 82 and 47. Good luck with that !!

  24. I have been looking at the senate and its potential make up post the election. If the senate splits on a 3-3 left(ALP & Green)/ right (LNP & One Nation) in each of the states and territories going 1-1 each then the numbers are going to be 36 right, 35 left and Lambie.
    However, the LNP senate vote may fall low enough in Victoria or SA that they only get 2 senators but who manages to win the last seat is difficult to work out. If it happens in WA it would be One Nation. Tasmania is hard to judge as the Lambie vote last time is going to have to go somewhere.

  25. I moved in here a week after Summernats, something to look forward to in a year I guess…

    Welcome! 🙂

    Everywhere can be Summernats on a Friday/Saturday night.

    Go out, explore and enjoy. Get riled up at lazy reporting that thinks “Canberra” = Parliament.

  26. I note that William’s updated Bludgertrack is now showing an eye-watering 13.6% swing to Labor in WA. On a uniform swing, that would see them win every seat bar Forrest, O’Conner, and Curtin, and there would only be a few percent in it on those three.

  27. “now showing an eye-watering 13.6% swing to Labor in WA. ”

    In our dreams Asha………but for now i will go all Disney and hum “Dreams really can, come, true”.

    Or if i was on the Dark Side maybe think more Nightmare on Elm Street?? 🙂

  28. Asha says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 11:18 pm
    I note that William’s updated Bludgertrack is now showing an eye-watering 13.6% swing to Labor in WA. On a uniform swing, that would see them win every seat bar Forrest, O’Conner, and Curtin, and there would only be a few percent in it on those three.

    The Lite candidate has to be a good chance in Curtin. The Liberals could run a pink and grey galah in O’Connor and still win. Forrest is an unlikely chance for Labor.

    I’m hopeful a change election – if it eventuates – will deliver two results:

    – that the Liberals will be obliterated in the Perth seats and in Durack
    – that the Greens Senate vote will decline to 5% or less and their part-quota will help elect a 3rd Labor Senator

    WA has been particularly ill-served by the Reactionary parties and their sidekicks. They should be struck off the lists.

  29. B.S. Fairman says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 11:12 pm

    I have been looking at the senate and its potential make up post the election. If the senate splits on a 3-3 left(ALP & Green)/ right (LNP & One Nation) in each of the states and territories going 1-1 each then the numbers are going to be 36 right, 35 left and Lambie.

    The Greens cannot be tallied as Labor-supportive. They will align with the LNP whenever they can.

  30. Yes Steely,

    What did he say?

    Here’s the main quote.

    “A mixed bag, good and bad spots for both sides, overall not much to see here in my view.”

    A win for Liberals, a sniff of one?

    No!

    Anyway weren’t you going to bed after last post to AE?

  31. Been there

    Do your own work. Read it. Quite different to much that has been commented on here.

    Do you read anything or retain anything. I have repeatedly said nothing can be read into the result and now another person that is known to study this area has agreed with me, I also pointed out Speers said the same but apparently he is a liberal hack.

    Saying Goodnight to Earlwood can happen mid morning actually it can happen anytime. It is different to saying your going to sleep

    I wont be responding to you anymore bloke until it looks like you start reading a bit more. Talking about bedtime it must be way past yours. I am pretty sure your young.

  32. I just spotted a relevant tweet from Mike Carlton:

    I think an older woman should succeed @leighsales. Gerard Henderson would be ideal.

    I think Mr Carlton may be better off not insulting half the population in his age group by equating them to Gerard Henderson!

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