The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention numbers, and that it will henceforth abandon its practice of holding them back and publish them promptly every fortnight. The latest set of numbers is a fair bit better for the Coalition than its recent form from other pollsters, with primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2%, independents 5% and 8% undecided.
If the undecided are removed and preference flows from the 2019 election applied, this gives Labor a two-party preferred lead a shade higher than 51-49. Essential Research instead gives us its “2PP+” measure which does not exclude the undecided, and comes out with Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 46% and undecided on 8%. The pollster’s website includes three further sets of hitherto unpublished results going back to the start of December, which show these latest results to be stronger for the Coalition than last fortnight’s, which had them on 36% of the primary vote to Labor’s 37%, with the Greens on 8% and One Nation and the United Australia Party on 3% each.
The poll also finds the Coalition with better ratings for COVID-19 management than a fortnight ago, its good rating up five to 40% and poor down four to 34%. It also finds 57% believe the definition of fully vaccinated should be three shots, compared with 31% who would settle for two. Positive ratings for the state governments, with the usual caveat that sample sizes are small in all cases but especially so for the smaller states, have New South Wales up seven to 44%, Victoria down five to 42%, Queensland up ten to 56%, Western Australia down two to 64% and South Australia up ten to 53%. These too can be found already on the Essential Research website, with the rest of the report to follow later today. The poll had a sample of 1069 and was conducted, presumably, from Thursday to Sunday.
Roy Morgan also eventually came good on the federal poll that it teased in its newsletter last week, from which the two-party headline had Labor’s lead edging out to 56.5-43.5 from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Coalition 33% (down one-and-a-half points), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 11.5% (down half), One Nation 3.5% (up half) and United Australia Party 2% (up one-and-a-half). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (down from 58-42 a fortnight ago for a swing of about 6%), 59-41 in Victoria (steady, swing of about 6%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a reversal of last time for a swing of about 10%), 55.5-44.5 in Western Australia (compared with 51-49 last time for a swing of about 11%), 64-36 in South Australia (61.5-38.5 last time for a swing of about 13%) and 61.5-38.5 from the very small Tasmanian sample.
The poll was conducted from Monday, January 17 to Sunday, January 30, suggesting the pollster has abandoned its past practice of polling on weekends, online and by telephone from a sample of 2783.
Puff, the Magic Dragon @ #3096 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
I am childless so a bit handicapped in the comments department. But I think learning *about* religions has a lot of merit.
Itza:
The whole premise that she’s only required because SfM is in trouble is itself highly patronising. Her only worth as an individual is an accoutrement or the benefit she has for her husband.
The way Abbott used his wife and family also made me feel queasy.
ItzaDream
“But I think learning *about* religions has a lot of merit.”
So do I. And mythology too. Greek mythology is fascinating.
D, that is a valid point too. The best thing would be to not involve the kids, especially now politics is so partisan and hate-filled. I know the temptation to show off the family is hard to ignore for PM hopefuls.
I’m big enough to admit I was wrong.
I thought the anti vax protests wouldn’t have any impact. I thought it was a bad idea coming to canberra, home to two governments that have opposed vaccine mandates (act Gov because they already hit 99%+ uptake without a mandate and federal because they don’t care if people die). I thought protesting the state governments responsible for the vaccine mandates made more sense.
But they’ve managed to achieve real change in the world. They’ve succeeded in stopping the lifeline book fair. An evil event where people get books and an amazing charity gets much needed funding.
Considering the turnout at the book fair normally, I can only assume the act government mandates attendance at it. Or uses vaccines to mind control people into going and buying some books.
Bunch of selfish, entitled wankers the lot of them.
Yes, learning about religions is good and should be in whatever passes for Social Studies these days. That could be in relation to geography, as in ‘This is the major religion in this area, but there are these minority ones’ etc but not teaching any one religion as fact.
I see my comments about including Morrison’s daughters in the 60 Minutes photo being unethical has touched a lot of debates.
I have a view on which points I agree with, but I think the point is, the fact that there is a debate at all about how Morrison’s daughters look and dress is precisely the problem. Morrison has politicised his own daughters to make political gain. Totally unethical in my view.
Many former PMs had families, but for most you never saw their non-adult children except on election night; they kept them out of the fray. Morrison is one of our least ethical PMs.
Knowing his pedantic focus on imagery and appearances, Morrison probably told his girls exactly what to wear.
My respect for Morrison as a parent matches my respect for him as a PM. He exploits everything and everyone for personal gain. #ScottyTheCreep
Hear hear, Socrates
OK, I think I just fell down a rabbit hole! I happened to wonder at this Sunday night Morrison special. The photos show Scott, Jenny and the two children at a meal with Karl. I wondered where the others are. Doesn’t his mum live with them? I have a look, and his mother’s name is Marion. Marion Morrison!
How did I not know that Scott Morrison’s mother has the same name as John Wayne? 🙂
I would not care if this plague wiped out every wilful anti-vaxxer who is competent to make the decision and without a medical reason to refuse Covid19 vaccines. I do not include those who are hesitant because their confidence has been lowered by committed anti-vaxxers, but those Petrie dishes who should know better but just refuse to accept the science.
Do not expect my tears for you, ya bastards!
I agree, Socrates. I should I have left the daughters out of it. Can you please delete those posts, Bilbo?
Paul Keating and family – 60 Minutes profile 1992:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KUYCO4OFhdw
Puff
My remarks were not aimed at you or anyone in particular.
It is the general point – people’s kids should not be dragged into political debates. The fact that Morrison did the dragging shows that he deserves the kicking.
Griff,
I have bad news for John Wayne fans. Just about every movie he made has his character hitting a woman, who ‘deserved it’ and goes on to fall in love with him. As a role model for men (and women to accept such violence) of his time and beyond he was a shocker.
My Mum who loved Westerns and C&W music could not stand John Wayne and she pointed out to me why.
He also reported other actors etc to the McCarthy committee and was a full-on supporter of it.
Now, does anyone want me to start on Steven Segal…
DQ
Keating should not have done it either. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
I like a lot of Keating’s thought, but not everything. He was wrong about China too, unfortunately.
Socrates,
Thanks.
The showcasing of the family was not the norm in the Westminster system. I fear it is being dragged in from USA politics.
Wow, someone had to go back to 1992 to try to prove same-same. Now that is desperate!
Kakuru @ #3103 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 12:38 pm
Joseph Campbell has a good line about religion and mythology. It goes something like, “Mythology is somebody else’s religion and religion is misunderstood mythology. ” In his mind they are the almost the same thing and it’s only our relationship with a myth that makes it a religion. I can recommend his “Man and Myth” lectures (5 hours total), which should be around somewhere in the interwebs.
LR/Kakuru
“ So do I. And mythology too. Greek mythology is fascinating.”
I agree. Studying Greek mythology and Greek philosophy enables you to see what every subsequent western religion evolved from.
Nixon used his dog to save his career back in the 50s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9LcAJOsFGg
C@t,
Would have been fantastic concert to see.
I don’t see that much live music but prior to COVID most memorable concerts I saw were:
Bachir Attar and the Master Musicians of Jajouka at the Supersense festival in August 2017:
Ryuchi Sakamoto and Alva Noto at MIIF in October 2018
Nils Frahm at MIIF in August 2019.
Nils Frahm performs “Says” for the BBC Proms 2015
https://youtu.be/NL3BlDYWmRk
alva noto + ryuich sakamoto TWO 13.06.2018 excerpts
https://youtu.be/WhuKSgEwOI8
The above is from the same tour as the Melbourne and Sydney performances. It’s an audience recording but gives an idea of how the performance unfolded over a couple of hours…
bakunin
Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 11:24 am Comment #3058
“Green Evil”
That’s a very moody piece, interesting too that a deep forest still works to imbue that sense of claustrophobic hidden danger, given how few forests still exist. Forests are embedded inside us somewhere. It took a while but towards the end I was seeing post-apocalyptic hope in the churning turning swelling thriving growing resilient green. I felt hope.
Apparently, Morrison’s never told a lie, even a white one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs1Poi4Aiig
“How did I not know that Scott Morrison’s mother has the same name as John Wayne?”
I knew it. She calls me Pilgrim.
Mavis
So Morrison says he has never told a lie and like so many statements of his I have to ask, ‘Is that a lie, too?’
”
Granny Annysays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:28 am
Last night Steely was trying to reinforce the conservative meme that those uppity Chinese can only be kept in their place if we retain the Morrison/Joyce/Dutton Government. At his vital Quad meeting, Mr Blinken from the USA was telling us that tension around Ukraine in Europe would flow into the Pacific. In case you miss the link, that is where we live. Crank up the fear, vote Conservative.
Many here will have been alive as the Vietnam War escalated, a principal driver being a bullshit incident in the Gulf of Tonkin.
”
There is theory that the incident in the Gulf of Tonkin was as fake as Iraq WMDs.
Poroti, Beguiled
Is it proved?
Mavis
“ Apparently, Morrison’s never told a lie, even a white one:”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs1Poi4Aiig
Thanks 😀 As you probably know “have you ever told a lie” is usually a test question to identify pathological liars.
Puff, the Magic Dragon says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 1:20 pm
He did it out of his ‘faith’ as he expected his daughters to stay chaste until they entered into life-long monogamous marriages, as he explained.
I hope not… given he would have spread his wild oats around with gay abandon before being in a “monogamous “ relationship, if indeed that did happen
The same might be said about Scotty…. & his younger days as member of the Elitist Brethren if descriptions re his UNSW days are correct.
PTMD & Socrates:
I think this vid should form a central part of Labor’s election campaign.
Yep. Congratulations for being increasing your profile from “nuisance” to “pain in the arse”.
If the muppets think they’re going to stop the Canberra Show, think again.
Canberra protests: Lifeline bookfair closed as situation at EPIC deteriorates
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7617787/lifeline-bookfair-closed-as-situation-at-epic-deteriorates/
(Delete “being” – edit isn’t working.)
Jaeger says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:45 am
This could start a meme.
Google is already auto-filling “scomo u…”
———————-
I was disappointed when it filled out …kelele
Well if he does he’s the only one , and that includes the protesters FFS!
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-says-he-understands-concerns-about-vaccine-mandates-as-thousands-of-protesters-gather-in-canberra/3362610a-ed68-4a8b-a632-19597e31feaa
Some seem to have taken umbrage to my posting the 1992 Keating profile, wise cracks and all.
It was to contrast Keating’s approach to that of Morrison’s.
Keating gave a glimpse of his family to the Australian public shortly after becoming PM. Early in the program he made it clear this would be the only time and the family would then go back to a deserved private existence.
Morrison however has cynically wielded his family members regularly and now is deploying them in one last ditch attempt to save himself.
They are not comparable in any way and it was worth highlighting.
Were you expecting something else?
“It’s terribly concerning” he says, as he pours E10 (to placate the Nationals) on the fire.
It is an observation only, but I sense maybe 25% of our fellow voters would actually give up democracy for a “strong leader” saving them having to think about (let alone make) tough/messy/contradictory/compromised decisions which are part of the democratic process.
My guess would be these same 25% would much prefer such strong man (woman?) to come from the right and hard right of politics.
We, in Perth, had a pathetic band of anti-vaxxers a few weeks ago front up to the WA Governor demanding he “dismiss” the McGowan government.
This group seems to be thriving at the moment in the democracies – US, Canada, France for instance – and, of course, there are opportunists -some with lots and lots of money – willing to pander to this crew in Oz…….I think their current political colours are predominantly yellow and black………..though the blue side would also like to suck up to them……
Jaeger says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 3:10 pm
Google is already auto-filling “scomo u…”
———————-
I was disappointed when it filled out …kelele
Were you expecting something else?
—————
Something more declaratory
I know that The Boer and even folk like Socrates infarct over the ChiComms, but frankly they have just been sold a neo-con marketing lie: the conflation of the decades long Leninist suppression of its own people with pure war mongering propaganda. Dangerous stuff and you’d think theyd be more skeptical given that the rhetoric has been dialled up to eleventy by Murdoch (once he broke up with his Chicomm wife in 2013), the Americans (once they realised that China was going to surpass them) and all the usual American-Murdoch tory suck holes down under (not to mention the relevance deprived SDA/Grouper/Wolverine cadre within the FPLP, sigh).
I think this Micheal West interview of Michael Sainsbury really puts it all into perspective nicely:
https://youtu.be/CiFzl0esgC0
This is Sainsbury’s accompanying article.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/information-wars-are-we-getting-a-fair-view-of-chinas-treatment-of-uyghurs/
Perhaps the most interesting observation by Sainsbury relates to how DFAT has now been totally subordinated to Homeland Affairs and Defence in the Canberra hierarchy. Terrifying and bizarrely self destructive of our national interests.
Late Riser @ #3122 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 2:22 pm
There’s always this classic 🙂
https://youtu.be/EHrHTuWm7WA
Here are the riding instructions for the Canberra protestors.
Fine to exploit your family for politics, but you can’t then turn around and claim they aren’t fair game for political point scoring, when you put then into play they are in play. And know one knows that some politicians play dirty, Morrison would be neck and neck with Dutton for Australia’s dirtiest politican, right from the underhanded way he stole preselection on.
U.S. COVID update: Daily deaths remain high but continue to drop
– New cases: 169,139 ………………………. New deaths: 2,799
– States reporting: 46/50
– In hospital: 89,368 (-3,912)
– In ICU: 17,269 (-641)
942,006 total deaths now
–
“There’s always this classic”
🙂 I was listening to “Disintegration” earlier.
Jaeger @ #3130 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 2:45 pm
Why don’t the ACT Police arrest the intimidatory thugs?
Late Riser,
That’s a great description of the track.
It does give a real sense of journey through a threatening, primeval forest before emerging into a place that is far more welcoming.
He has an album from 93 titled “The Rapture of Metals” that was influenced by Balinese music. “Green Evil” was released in 96, but it feels like they are thematically linked. There is a really sense of an imaginal Borneo or Balinese rainforest. As you say these are disappearing fast in the real world.
Paul Schütze — The Rapture of Metals (Full Album)
https://youtu.be/EG4sHwXNn-c
GG:
It says something about these idiots that I genuinely can’t tell if that is a joke or not.
“Why don’t the ACT Police arrest the intimidatory thugs?”
Optics?
“Meanwhile, frontline police officers attempting to control the ongoing Wellington protest outside Parliament have been ordered to stop carrying batons.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-parliament-protest-sprinklers-turned-on-second-wave-convoy-en-route/3MKC44AVVFXXTGUATPSLMIFN7Q/
Earlswoods a fighter!
A-E
1. Agree that DFAT is kowtowing to the spook mavens.
2. I don’t give tuppence about linking communist ideology to the behaviour of Xi and the Party. They say they do but they don’t. So why should I? I should add that I don’t give tuppence about reflexive old stye yellow peril mania, either.
3. I agree that various arseholes misrepresent what is going in China. There is absolutely nothing new about that and in itself it proves nothing about China.
4. There are a couple of facts about China that ARE relevant, even if you would prefer not to think about it.
5.China is in an expansionist imperial phase and it uses military force to expand.
6. We haven’t the slightest notion where this phase of the Chinese borders will stabilize.
7. China is in the biggest naval build up in peace time history anywhere, anytime. A major component of this build up is aggression based – the capacity to carry out amphibious landings.
8. Despite what many fantastists have believed for decades, Australia’s choosing separate imperiums for economic and military hegemons was only ever going to be temporary. I have been saying this for over 20 years and I was right. Just about everyone in the DFAT/Defence/Academia space was wRONg on this.
9. The premise that China only reacts to the West is arrogant and old-style Western imperialist thinking. China is not only a major player, China initiates military action.
10. Xi is dictator. And here is the thing. He has buckets of blood on his hands. He has hundreds of thousands of enemies. Historically this has generated paranoia including, incidentally, in previous incarnations of Chinese emperors. There is no heir being groomed. The current bunch of Xi cronies are in the same age bracket. There is no youth being developed. Above all, there is no process for an orderly transition of power. Paranoia tends to increase over time and erratic behaviour tends to increase with the depth of the paranoia.
On a related but separate matter Dutton is, IMO, the single biggest security risk that Australia faces. He is prepared to further damage our relationships with China for personal political gain.
He is prepared to cede ever more Australian sovereignty to the United States.
He is prepared to deploy the security agency intelligence gathering for party political purposes.
Mr Morrison admitted today that he enforced mandatory vaccinations in old peoples homes.