Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Newspoll adds its weight to a grim new year polling picture for the Morrison government.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, is a horror result for the Morrison government, crediting Labor with a lead of 56-44, out from 53-47 in the final poll in December. Labor is up three on the primary vote and the Coalition down two, to 41% and 34% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison has plunged five on approval to 39% and is up six on disapproval to 58%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% and down two on disapproval, also to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is cut from 45-36 to 43-41. The poll also finds Albanese leading Morrison 33% to 32% as best to lead the country out of the pandemic and 39% to 21% for handling climate change, with Morrison leading 33% to 31% on creating jobs and growing the economy and 31% to 26% on dealing with the threat of China.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1526.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  2. a r says:
    Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 9:23 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #1460 Tuesday, February 1st, 2022 – 6:53 pm

    Its one thing to have a heated argument but undermining a colleague is just nasty.

    Those are strange priorities.
    ———————-
    A.R
    Are you saying my comment is strange of what PvO did was strange.?

  3. In episode #1396 of Batshit Crazy Americans, this guy is the star:

    San Francisco: For more than four years, Chad Carswell, 38, has suffered from severe kidney disease. In July 2020, he started on dialysis – but now his kidneys are functioning at just 4 per cent.

    In an interview, Carswell said he recently applied for a kidney transplant but was turned down because he has not received a coronavirus vaccine. And, despite his hospital’s requirements that organ recipients be vaccinated against the virus, he’s refusing the shots.

    … But for Carswell, getting a shot comes down to personal choice, he said

    “It’s about standing up for our rights and understanding that we have a choice,” he said.

    Carswell said he knows that by refusing to get vaccinated, the donor kidney he so desperately needs will remain out of reach. But he said he is willing to accept the consequences, even it costs him his life.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-was-born-free-i-ll-die-free-man-turns-down-vaccine-at-expense-of-a-lifesaving-transplant-20220201-p59svm.html

  4. Jaeger

    Any number of sporting bodies around the world have made vaccination compulsory.

    But curiously the NSW racing industry has not.

    WA’s leading jockey William Pike will move to Sydney next week because he will not get vaccinated and it is compulsory in the WA racing industry.

    One of WA’s leading horse training partnerships, Grant and Alana Williams are having too rearrange their business because she won’t get vaccinated. She will not be able to have anything to do with the training of the horses.

    And I just read one of WA’s leading greyhound trainers is giving it away because he won’t get vaccinated.

    Pike’s explanation is that he had a bad reaction to a flu vax years ago and doesn’t want that again. He’s easily the best jockey in Perth but the competition in Sydney is next level.

    Do we admire their principles or just wonder …

  5. Re Nostradamus’ list…

    Please Nostradamus, get the Lieberal party to adopt your list as policy and, pretty please, get Scomo to announce the list during the campaign launch.

    Please…

  7. Yes, the price of bread question is a gotcha one, but it’s not as if it has never been asked before.

    It’s regularly brought out when cost of living is an issue and as such not knowing it just says reeks of a lack of preparation.

  9. C@ t

    So this guy is happy for someone elses kidney and to take all the drugs etc required to facilitate and maintain the transplant. But not if he has to take a vaccine to prevent serious disease or death from covid.

    I reckon someone else would appreciate the donor kidney

  10. Great stuff by PVO at the press club.

    But looking at his twitter, I can’t help but feel if he thinks people are being too mean to him he might start wearing a tatty suit with a bow tie and ranting about cultural Marxists in the not too distant future.

  13. Puff the magic dragon

    You have stated on here that Morrison should go to jail for murder for the death of all the people who died of Covid in Australia. By this logic every leader in the world should go to jail all have made mistakes people like you sound like Trump who now is going to make China pay for the death they have caused around the world. It fascinates me that the left and the right of both extremes think so similarly.

    Australia is doing better than nearly every country in the world one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, higher than NZ and closing in on Canada, one of the highest booster rates in the world and one of the lowest death rates in the world, could we have done better sure but we have done exceptionally well and this is proven by comparing ourselves to all other nations. Was there stuff ups sure. But every nation I mean every single nation has made them.

    Right now McGowan can slow down the death rate that will occur in WA in a month or so all he has to do is lockdown right now for 14 days and he will without a doubt save lives there is no doubt about it, but will he, no. For that matter every premier in Australia could lockdown right now and lives will be saved, again will they do it, no, It is an awful balance that has to be made but leaders have to make these awful decisions. By your logic they are murderers.

    A turn here or there and you would be a mad as a cut snake Trump supporter same mindset.

  14. Thanks, Sprocket, re seat odds. Looked at a few random Vic seats, and the odds for some of the traditional Tory seats look inviting. Pity I don’t bet. My seat, Ballarat, was marginal before Catherine King won it years ago, but now Labor is $1.01.

  16. Victoria @ #1506 Tuesday, February 1st, 2022 – 9:42 pm

    C@ t

    So this guy is happy for someone elses kidney and to take all the drugs etc required to facilitate and maintain the transplant. But not if he has to take a vaccine to prevent serious disease or death from covid.

    I reckon someone else would appreciate the donor kidney

    As the doctor said to him, wtte, there’s 10000 other people on the waiting list, so off you toddle with your ‘freedom’. To which the guy replied, at least I’ll die a free man! Seriously nuckin’ futs.

  17. Hey snappy tom you fessed up to every leader turning there backs on the opposition who is talking Thought so. Watch parliament next week.

  19. A quite bizarre day for PvO. First an actual hard question from him to the PM at the National Press Club, based on leaked emails criticising Morrison’s character.

    Then a story about PvO facing legal action from Tegan George alleging he belittled her:
    “she was allegedly told by the network’s executive editor, Anthony Murdoch, “Peter is batshit crazy but we just have to get used to it” and that Van Onselen expected George to apologise for “hurting his feelings” by raising the issue.”

    This claim is also interesting re: PvO’s character:
    “When Canberra staff complained about having to write Van Onselen’s TV news packages as well as their own, news boss Ross Dagan said “words to the effect that Mr van Onselen was the Network’s number one and said that they were all expected to build Mr van Onselen’s brand”, according to the statement of claim.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/01/peter-van-onselen-accused-of-humiliating-and-belittling-colleague-in-federal-court-claim-against-network-ten

    Pot, meet kettle? This might explain why PvO and Christian got on so well together.

  20. It seems PVO has bigger things to worry about.

    George’s claims do not read well and add that to his performance on The Panel this week, it seems he may have some issues.

    Shame he asked Morrison that question today, Morrison might of been able suggest an empathy coach otherwise.

  21. Regarding the ‘milk and bread’ question it hit on something that happened for me the other day.
    I could fathom a guess at what bread and milk cost but I don’t look at them when I grab and shove it in a trolley so I’m not overly fussed on Showbags not knowing. but on the other hand…

    I popped into Woolies earlier in the week and grabbed about 15 items tops. Milk, bread, fruit, ham, cheese, zero beer and some coke etc. The bill came to $70. I did a double take as thought it must have had an error. Nope that’s what it was and my immediate thought was how are people coping with the cost of living rises in a time of massive mortgages. I feel fortunate that I haven’t needed to worry for years when I go shopping but a change in my employment circumstances and that would be very stressful.

    Under the LNP government over the last 3 years the cost of living has increased dramatically. If they don’t get to held to account now, when would they be?

  22. In WA the bookie has Labor winning only Pearce and Swan from the Liberals. In Curtin the Liberal incumbent Celia Hammond is not nearly as short as you’d think with the margin she starts with. Go Kate Chaney.

    edit : Hasluck is close 1.65 Liberals 2.15 Labor.

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/craig-kelly-floats-preference-offer-for-liberal-mps-who-break-ranks-in-parliament

    Craig Kelly has signalled the United Australia party could throw a political lifeline to incumbent MPs prepared to break ranks and support two new private members bills he will bring forward during the final sitting weeks of parliament.

    The UAP plans to put all sitting members of parliament last on its how-to-vote cards in the coming federal election – a strategy prompting significant anxiety among Morrison government MPs, given the Coalition was the primary beneficiary of preference flows in the 2019 election.

    But Kelly, the former maverick Liberal, and now UAP leader, says his party’s “pox on all your houses” strategy could well change depending on where MPs line up in the final sitting weeks.

  24. Mexicanbeemer @ #1503 Tuesday, February 1st, 2022 – 8:37 pm

    Are you saying my comment is strange of what PvO did was strange.?

    The first thing. As in, if your colleague is legitimately wrong, then feel free to undermine the hell out of them. Correctness is more important than solidarity.

    Though I guess also the second thing. Rushes to the PM’s defense over Grace, and then a few days later throws the PM under the bus with the texts. It’s like he can’t decide which side he wants to be on. Doesn’t really make sense.

  25. sprocket_ @ #1503 Tuesday, February 1st, 2022 – 9:39 pm

    For those interested, SportsBet has put up seat by seat odds on all 151 electorates..

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics

    Lindsay, Gilmore and Robertson, the tight races in NSW. With Wentworth looking like it could get Allegra Spender over the line with Green and Labor preferences.

    None of the other NSW Teal candidates look like they are in the race seriously at this time.

  26. Morrison should have known that there are eleventy different types of bread and milk you can buy and it depends on which one you buy, how much it will cost.

  27. C@t
    That guy only gets silver in the Batshit Crazy race. He could live with dialysis but this is the gold medal batshit winner…………………..
    .
    Covid vaccine refusal removes Boston patient from heart transplant waitlist.

    The family says he was at the front of the line to receive a transplant but because he has not received the COVID-19 vaccination he is no longer eligible according to hospital policy. Ferguson says his son refuses to get the shot.

    “It’s kind of against his basic principles; he doesn’t believe in it. It’s a policy they are enforcing and so because he won’t get the shot, they took him off the list of a heart transplant,” Ferguson said.
    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/24/covid-19-vaccine-heart-transplant-boston-brigham-womens-hospital-dj-ferguson/

  28. Those odds are interesting. While Labor is favourite at 1.35, they are favorites in only ten seats, although several more are line ball. Only one seat in NSW? And it looks like Brother Hastie is on the way out if the money is right?

    Correction: Misread Canning

  29. This seems strange.

    Why wouldn’t Australia join in these additional sanctions?

    Myanmar coup anniversary leads to sanctions against top junta officials, but not from Australia

    Several of Australia’s closest allies have hit Myanmar’s military with new economic sanctions one year after the junta seized power, drawing fresh calls for the federal government to do the same.
    …
    The United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have all marked the coup’s anniversary by adding several top officials – including the junta’s attorney-general and senior judicial officers – to their sanctions lists.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-01/myanmar-coup-junta-officials-hit-with-further-sanctions/100795394

  30. Last week PVO was all sorts of evil and a right wing Murdoch hack because he pointed out that Tame lacked civility and manners now he is alright because he gave Morrison a black eye. Have you ever he was just a journalist and if it bleeds it leads. Probably doesn’t sit with the right wing conspiracy of the media though.

  31. A.R
    Thanks i agree with you on that because there are times when you need to share information with others if things are turning bad.

  33. @Steely – “people are crazy and times are strange”

    PvO isn’t a hero, what he did last week wasn’t cool – and yes, I absolutely enjoyed him serving the PM right between the eyes …but who here is suddenly celebrating PvO?

  36. a r says:
    Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 10:09 pm

    Though I guess also the second thing. Rushes to the PM’s defense over Grace, and then a few days later throws the PM under the bus with the texts. It’s like he can’t decide which side he wants to be on. Doesn’t really make sense.
    ________________
    Do you imagine that journalists are party stooges who barrack for one team over another? The only party that PVO is interested in helping is the PVO party.

  38. Snappy Tomsays:
    Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 10:29 pm
    Steelydan at 10.03pm

    Try using grammar next time. Oh, and the English language.

    So that is a No then. Pathetic you were flat out wrong and can’t even admit it.

    FFS not another teacher on this site, Jesus that is all we need.

  41. jt1983says:
    Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 10:28 pm
    @Steely – “people are crazy and times are strange”

    PvO isn’t a hero, what he did last week wasn’t cool – and yes, I absolutely enjoyed him serving the PM right between the eyes …but who here is suddenly celebrating PvO?

    I said “alright” how is that “suddenly celebrating”. More pointing out that last week nothing he said could be taken seriously because of his profound bias but today he is right on target.

  42. Steelydan says:
    Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 10:37 pm

    I said “alright” how is that “suddenly celebrating”. More pointing out that last week nothing he said could be taken seriously because of his profound bias but today he is right on target.
    _____________
    He was far ruder to the PM than Grace Tame was.

  45. Thank you Sprocket. For what it’s worth, the seat odds markets show Labor winning Flynn, Longman, Dobell, Reid, Chisolm, Bass, Boothby, Swan & Pearce, and going very close in many others. The LNP gain no seats, falling just short in Gilmore. All cross-benchers hold, but there are no other seats where a non-major party are favourites, Flinders being the LNP seat at most risk. If my maths is right, the new parliament would be 78 ALP, 67 LNP, Others 6. There are 2 seats where there is no single favourite, and I’ve assumed both of those are held by the LNP. It will be interesting to see how these markets evolve as the election approaches.

  48. PM,
    Dobell is already Labor but on the flip side, you haven’t included the new seat of Hawke. So still a nine seat gain. A few more Morrison efforts like todays and some of those 3, 4 and 5 dollar Labor prices are going to disappear.
    That all said, the total pool is miniscule.

  50. Socrates,

    RE PvO,

    He’s a lecturer at a Uni! If I were an enterprising investigative journalist working for a competing news org, I’d start by getting a class list, then interviewing al the young women.

    I’m not saying there is anything there, but men like that, positions of authority and a bit of a celebrity. And you end up all sorts of things happening because of the implication.

    Like this.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yUafzOXHPE

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