Nothing on voting intention, but there’s a bunch of polls around the place, the most useful from my perspective being the first fortnightly Essential Research survey of the year, as it includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is at 46% on both approval and disapproval, respectively steady and up two since last month, which is the first time he has failed to record a net positive result since immediately before the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Anthony Albanese is likewise equal on approval and disapproval, in his case at 39%, with approval down one and disapproval up three. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-34, in from 42-31 last month and likewise his weakest result since March 2020.
There’s more bad news for Morrison on COVID-19 management, with the federal government recording a net negative result for the first time, its positive rating down six to 35% and negative up six to 38%. There has also been a sharp decline in the positive ratings for every state government except Victoria, most noticeably in the case of Western Australia, where the positive rating is down twelve to a new low of 66%. This remains nineteen points higher than nearest rival Victoria, up four points to 47%. New South Wales is down seventeen to 37%, now the lowest of the five, with Queensland down eleven to 46% and South Australia down fourteen to 43%. The results for the smaller states especially should, as always, be treated with caution here, but the near-uniformity of the sharp downward turn is impressive.
Respondents were also asked if various matters related to COVID-19 were likely to influence their chances of voting Coalition, an exercise I’m dubious about since it’s clear that many party loyalists respond without regard to the fact that their vote choice isn’t in doubt. For what it’s worth, 37% rated themselves less likely on account of Scott Morrison’s recent performance and 19% more likely; 30% and 15% ditto because of recent case numbers; 38% and 12% because of the shortage of rapid antigen tests (note the perversity of being more likely to vote Coalition on this basis); 22% and 19% because of reduced border restrictions; and, in the one net positive result, 23% and 27% for the Novak Djokovic affair.
The poll also finds 37% believe the choices of those who wish not to be vaccinated should be respected versus 63% who don’t, of whom 41% consider the unvaccinated ill-informed and 22% selfish. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1062.
Various other polling around the place:
• A poll by Painted Dog Research for The West Australian recorded a 71-29 split in favour of the McGowan government’s indefinite postponement of the reopening of the state’s border. Respondents were also offered a poorly framed question as to whether they “agree the McGowan government could have done more to prepare to open up on February 5”, to which 51% agreed and 29% at least purported to disagree, notwithstanding the obvious absurdity of such a position. The poll had a sample of 637 Western Australian respondents; no field work date was provided, though obviously it was done after Thursday’s announcement.
• YouGov has conducted a poll for the News Corp tabloids that covers an extensive range of issues, but not voting intention, results for which are seemingly being published bit by bit (the full questionnaire is here). There have been two reports from this that I’m aware of, one dealing with state government COVID-19 management. Thirty-five per cent of New South Wales respondents rated their government’s performance positively, 28% neutrally and 34% negatively; Victorians, 42%, 21% and 36%; Queenslanders, 61%, 20% and 19%; Western Australians, 85% positively, 6% neutrally and 8% negatively; South Australians, 48%, 29% and 21%; and Tasmanians, 65%, 21% and 11%. Another report related results on election issue salience, in which respondents were asked to pick two issues out of eight, with 58% choosing cost of living, ahead of 37% for health care, 34% for the economy and 32% for climate change. The poll was conducted December 27 to January 10 from an overall sample of 2297, with state sub-samples ranging from 257 in Tasmania to 507 in New South Wales.
• The Conversation reports on a Deakin Contemporary History Survey of “a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians” finding that 60% overall believe the current date of Australia Day should be maintained, but with a clear age effect in which 53% of those born 1986 or later felt otherwise, with 46% favouring no change.
• According to an AAP report, a CoreData survey of 1292 respondents finds more than 80% of those under 26 and more than 70% of those aged 27 to 41 “support moving the date for the sake of improving relations with the Indigenous population” – a formulation that presumably elicits a more favourable response – which plummeted to “just over 30%” among the 56 to 75 cohort and 25% of those over 75. All that’s revealed of those of in the middle is that “the majority still supported keeping the holiday on its current date”.
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 1372 respondents posed the not-all-that-useful-to-my-mind question as to whether as to whether January 26 should be identified as Australia Day or Invasion Day, breaking 65-35 in favour of the former. Cross-tabs here if you’re interested.
In Spain high speed rail has its own dedicated fenced rail corridor. The terrain around the Hawkesbury makes that very difficult
If you want HSR from Sydney to Newcastle perhaps it needs to go along old convict road toward Putty and bring it into the Hunter at Wollombi and flip it out through Maitland onto Northern line where there is more room for dedicated track
Biggest beef about the armaments procured from the USA is we can’t use them
The tanks are too wide and heavy for roads and bridges in this country and in this region
The planes do not deviate from the flight plan approved in Houston or where ever. Plane locks if pilot goes off piste
The US subs need a large crew, Australia tops up our fleet with British submariners – not sure they can work in shallow waters in this region
billie, I’m not sure if I we’re talking about the same thing. Sorry. If you go to the link you’ll see the type of information that has been collected in the past, namely a count of how many votes were cast early, and how early. It would be fascinating to know how many votes for each party were cast early and how early, but I can see why that might be something best kept under wraps. I’m just curious about trends in early voting in the run up to the last day.
The link: https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/May/Trends_in_early_voting_in_federal_elections
From memory (you’d have to ask CC) the designs ran underground from time to time.
Everything is made as difficult as possible.
The Australian defence force is set to deliver 20 tonnes of food and supplies to Coober Pedy in South Australia where grocery shipment routes have been affected by flood waters. Inland floods this week damaged rail infrastructure in South Australia and cut food supply lines to the Northern Territory and Western Australia.
Shortages of food and essential supplies are now a concern in Darwin, Western Australia and remote towns including Coober Pedy. The SA premier, Steven Marshall, warned on Sunday morning the northern half of the state could expect up to 200mm of rainfall in some areas over the next few days.
The first flight into Coober Pedy is expected to leave the Edinburgh base on Monday morning.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/30/military-to-drop-supplies-to-flood-hit-coober-pedy-as-sa-braces-for-heavy-rain
Rightly or wrongly Albo may have the advantage over Shorten of not being so closely identified in the public memory with the leadershit saga a while back.
Sadly, its rightly. I liked Bill Shorten polices that he went to the election with- but you can’t just talk down Shorten’s involvement. He was up to his neck in dispatching two prime minsters regardless of the fact he wasn’t the only one involved. And no I’m not Shorten basher, and no I don’t want to revisit the leadership crap again.
I would be surprised if there would be many voters aware of various politician’s roles in dispatching various leaders, and would then base their voting choice on that knowledge in 2022.
Hip pockets and COVID opinions will decide how most people vote I reckon.
“Hip pockets and COVID opinions will decide how most people vote I reckon.”
Likely right, though followed very closely by the lingering smell of a bushfire and how women are lucky we don’t shoot them.
billie @ #1651 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 3:39 pm
HSR from Sydney to Newcastle would be substantially in tunnel, as per CudChewer’s well argued paper ‘Re-Imagining High Speed Rail’.
Hawkesbury sandstone is an ideal tunnelling medium.
Billie says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 3:39 pm
In Spain high speed rail has its own dedicated fenced rail corridor. The terrain around the Hawkesbury makes that very difficult
I have no doubt the final route will be decided after a lot of planning by railway engineers that know a hell of a lot more about such things than you or I.
The important policy movement; stop dreaming about a Melbourne/Sydney link; get serious and do the most viable section first, Sydney/Newcastle. I believe this was the foundation of cuds argument and given the comments at the NPC it seems to be the position the Labor party has adopted.
Several months ago Cud presented a lot of data coming from a group ( which he was a member) looking at this, they suggested a route, gave the assumptions and the resultant reduction in travel time and discussion on the viability of it all. It was a very interesting contribution.
No doubt the Liberals will hang shit on it. It is unfortunate it can almost be 100% guaranteed the Greens will join them ( money better spent on medicare being one irrelevant piece of nonsense), a classic example of why the Greens should be treated with contempt. Instead of supporting a policy that will benefit the environment it will be anti Labor nonsense all the way.
For Bubsy The Butcherbird fans I present:
Bubsy, Volume I: The Final Chapter
This morning, after over a month (since before Christmas) of no contact from the FAWNA lady, I received the fateful call.
I have been trying to get in contact for several weeks – texts, voice messages etc. – but was greeted by A Great Silence. I had assumed the worst had happened, that Bubsy hadn’t made it, and they just didn’t want to upset me.
However, to my delight, the news from the aviary is all good. Bubs has been released into the wild, fit and well. But it was a gradual process.
Around mid-December, the carers noticed a similarly aged butcherbird youngster was hanging around their farm, and in particular loitering near the aviary. He sat near the tree branch rig that the carers had installed inside the aviary for Bubsy, but on the outside of the wire, of course. Nevertheless, the two formed what could only be called a friendship, warbling away to each other through the chicken wire.
Maybe the initial attraction was to the delicacies Bubs was being fed. But even though the new pal couldn’t get to it, he or she returned daily, sometimes for five minutes, sometimes as long as an hour. Around about Christmas the carers (a mother and her vet nurse daughter) started leaving the aviary open to allow Bubsy to leave, fly, and perch on trees nearby. His companion would often join him, and occasionally managed to scam some mince or other food meant for Bubsy.
Then the parents arrived. Forewarned by my account of how Bubsy’s father had attacked and tried to kill him, the carers were quite solicitous of Bubsy’s physical safety. They didn’t leave him alone on his visits to the Big Wide World, always supervising his little forays. But they needn’t have worried. On New Year’s eve the adult birds started feeding Bubsy, not a lot, not nearly as much as their own young bird, but with definite intent, as it became a regular occurence. This was real progress.
Then one day Bubsy flew off with his friend and stayed out all night. He was back next morning, famished and squwarking for food, but he’d done it. It was his first sleepover in a real tree.
Since then his time away began to stretch to two nights, then three then four, and now as I write, he has been away a whole week. When he has come back he’s obviously reasonably well fed and fit (that doesn’t stop the squwarking, of course). His feathers are showing signs of moulting, preparatory to growing his first set of adult plumage. It’s the same with his buddy. They are nearly always observed sitting together. The parents are still around occasionally, but not nearly as much as before. It looks like Bubsy is comfortably on his way to being a wild Butcherbird.
After assuming he was dead, and getting myself used to such a grim outcome, the call was naturally a very joyful occasion for me. I found myself choking up a little as I poured out questions into the phone for the carers to answer. They answered quite a few over 15 minutes, but eventually had to go, as there were other anxious foster parents – of joeys, echidnas, wombats, possums etc. – to call.
So, all in all, Volume I of Bubsy’s life is complete, and now on to Volume II. But as he is now wild and free, I think someone else will have the privilege of getting to write it.
Farewell Bubsy. Fly safe. May all your nests be happy ones.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/01/27/polls-leadership-ratings-wa-border-closure-australia-day/comment-page-34/#comment-3808801
…”how we don’t shoot them”?
Like a returned TDJT regime, the Fibs/ Nats post the 2022 Federal Election would have to be illegitimate.
Hmmm, bring on protests, civil disobedience, popular initiatives, leadership spills, elections, because … , revos, jaw jaw going war war tend to suck even more.
ItzaDream @ #1633 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 2:30 pm
So did I. However, that was likely outside of a court of law and as I remember it was extremely qualified. So he probably thinks that, with the best lawyer congregationalists’ money can buy, he’ll be able to evade conviction. Then lay on the ‘witch hunt’ victim spin with a trowel.
Thanks for sharing Bubsy’s Escapades. We have lots of birds visit us regularly for an occasional morsel or rummage in the grass, including butcher birds, and I had wondered how one might go about re-wilding one. Thanks.
Bill
Congratulations! You saved a little feathered life. Also, its a wonderful story.
Bushfire
Well done. Definitely time for a tear to fall.
Perhaps you could give Scomo a lesson in how to care for wildife (sarc.)
Good news that Bubsy was able to have a good life after being kidnapped by a forest curmudgeon and forced to perform in his absurd lounge room circus.
Great end to a great story, BB!
this womens ashes test going down to the wire – really (too) sporting declaration, eng now need 6rpo last 16 overs with 8 wkts in hand. but this current partnership is the key one for the poms
VCT Et3e @ #1662 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 3:36 pm
It was a casual reference to Morrison’s response to the “March for Justice”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_March_4_Justice
I would guess “received negatively” by more than just the opposition.
Cud had a route all planned out already. His HSR would come along the usual route for Central Coast bound trains to Woy Woy, then Gosford, then under Kariong and through the parklands (under them as well), that are north of Kariong, heading towards Somersby then through to Wyong and points north to Newcastle. His main requirement was that the rail line needed to essentially be as straight a line as possible to enable the speeds necessary for the train to qualify as ‘High Speed’ and not simply just ‘Very Fast’. So a lot of the curves on the existing line would need to be straightened out, where they were to be used in order to save money on the overall cost.
I did have quite the contretemps with him though about his plans for the line into Gosford, where his concept ran into the reality on the ground. 😉
Anyway, I just wish he’d bloody get over his butt hurt with Mr Bowe, come back and give us all the benefit of his vast and encyclopedic knowledge wrt HSR!
If he has the time, that is. 🙂
Allege seems to be a strange word to use…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/royal-commission-sex-abuse-inquiry-censures-hillsong-head-brian-houston-20151123-gl5esn.html
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/hillsong-leader-brian-houston-breaks-silence-on-paedophile-father-it-was-wrong-not-to-report-him/news-story/6530b4352962bc835e8fb2f906d657cf
https://web.archive.org/web/20050803022536/http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2005/s1427560.htm
nath says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 4:45 pm
Good news that Bubsy was able to have a good life after being kidnapped by a forest curmudgeon and forced to perform in his absurd lounge room circus.
Mate you really are a bit of a sad case .
Faithful lapdog Birmingham is sent out to utter some ridiculous hyperbole on RATs:
Pretty obvious who the curmudgeon is.
citizen says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 4:57 pm
Faithful lapdog Birmingham is sent out to utter some ridiculous hyperbole on RATs:
Finance Minister Simon Birmingham claimed Labor’s plan could cost more than $13 billion.
It was pretty obvious that was one of the Gotch-ya David Speers was going for this morning. Albo pointed out it would be controlled using medicare. Reality does not stop the Liberal bullshit.
Looking at Hunt’s approach, or is it Morrison’s?
I am prepared to pay for them myself.
I can’t get any. So zero.
I can’t get any. So nowhere.
OK. I’ll have to agree with that bit.
frednk @ #1676 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 2:01 pm
It’s pretty hilarious considering this the type of thing other countries are already doing and a RAT is far cheaper than the PCR test the Government is currently funding.
frednk says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 4:10 pm
No doubt the Liberals will hang shit on it. It is unfortunate it can almost be 100% guaranteed the Greens will join them ( money better spent on medicare being one irrelevant piece of nonsense), a classic example of why the Greens should be treated with contempt. Instead of supporting a policy that will benefit the environment it will be anti Labor nonsense all the way.
The bills for Commonwealth-funded HSR would have to go to the Senate, where the LNP and the Greens will combine to defeat them. A trigger for a DD coming right up.
If it were 1948, and the bills were not for a railway but for the Snowy Scheme, they would just as likely vote to defeat that too.
@billie – while taking some positions I agree with, Bill Maher has been the worst thing about his show for the best part of a decade.
Bludging says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 5:07 pm
…
The bills for Commonwealth-funded HSR would have to go to the Senate, where the LNP and the Greens will combine to defeat them. A trigger for a DD coming right up.
Hopefully Labor will play it well enough for people to realize just how damaging the Greens are when it comes to environmental issues.
44 off 54, 7 wkts in hand. Would be pretty poor if England didnt win it from here
i think the greens actually already support high speed rail, for the record. -a.v.
“i think the greens actually already support high speed rail, for the record. -a.v.”
But only if the carriages turn into pumpkins at midnight.
A.V. Indeed, it was the Greens who pushed HSR as part of its agreement with the Gillard government and drove much of the agenda in relation to it.
There was a bit of buzz here yesterday about the Australia Institute uComms Polling for Wentworth and North Sydney.
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/polling-vast-majority-of-wentworth-north-sydney-voters-want-more-funding-for-abc/
I think the reported TCP figures and the TPP figures William has received deserve closer inspection.
Wentworth
Any shortfall under 100% in the PV figures is assumed as undecided as per uComms practice. With undecided assigned as per the expressed PV, I get the following primary votes (changes from 2019 in brackets)
Liberal 37.6% (-9.8%)
Spender 29.3% (-3.1% from Phelps 2019)
Labor 19.7% (+8.7%)
Greens 7.9% (+0.4%)
ON 2.9% (nc 2019)
UAP 2.6% (+1.9%)
Note: CDP and Drake-Brockman (Ind) contested in 2019
If the Lib v Ind (Phelps) 2019 preference flows are applied to Lib v Spender (Ind) 2022 contest, I get the following TCP;
Spender: 54.2% (+5.5% from Phelps 2019)
Liberal: 45.8% (-5.5%)
Note: I have given ON the CDP preference flows of 2019.
That isn’t far from 56-44 reported but still a bit below it.
Estimating the TPP requires an assessment of Phelps 2019 TPP preference flows which isn’t published by the AEC. Given the similarity of the Wentworth 2019 Lib v Ind preference flows to the neighbouring Sydney & Kingsford-Smith 2019 Lib v ALP preference flows, the Lib v Ind TCP preference flows can be applied to Lib v ALP TPP count.
Given the published Wentworth 2019 TPP Count (Lib 59.85%) an implied Phelps TPP preference flow of ALP 68.3%, Lib 31.7% can be calculated.
Applying these TPP preference flows give the following TPP;
Liberal: 52.0% (-7.9%)
Labor: 48.0% (+7.9%)
A TPP which is well off the 55-45 ALP TPP provided to William.
of course it’s no surprise that Labor get it’s ideas off the Greens. The only educated people in Labor these days are too old to change, or angling for a seat.
Where’s your sidekick, nath?
Perhaps Lars has heard that NewsPoll has a Coalition primary under 35?
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham · 21m
Re #Newspoll, if there isn’t one tonight that would be the latest start in an election year since 1990. However that would allow coinciding with resumption of parliament which has often been a factor before. One report of possible #Newspoll in field.
North Sydney
Assigning undecideds as per Wentworth we get the following primaries;
Liberal 36.4% (-15.6%)
Labor 24.4% (-0.7%)
Tink 21.3 (+16.9% from Chesterfield-Evans 2019)
Greens 11.9% (-1.7%)
ON 2.7% (nc in 2019)
TNL 1.7% (nc in 2019)
UAP 1.6% (+0.3%)
Note: CDP, Sustainable Australia and Chesterfield-Evans (Ind) contested in 2019
In 2019 North Sydney was a Lib v ALP TCP contest, however we can apply Wentworth preference flows to arrive at a Lib v Tink TCP.
More confidence can be derived from these flows as Labor/Green Lib v Ind TCP flows in Warringah are close to the same flows in Wentworth.
Again I’ll give ON the CDP preference flows of 2019. As for The New Liberals given they seem to occupy the same ideological space as the “Teals”, I’ll assume a 75-25 Ind v Lib TCP.
On this basis the TCP comes out as;
Tink: 54.1%
Liberal 45.9%
Well short of the TCP 59-41 to Tink which was reported.
For the TPP, using the same approach as Wentworth, for Greens & UAP we use the same 2019 preference flow, and ON is given 2019 CDP pref flow. Given the ideological similarity between the teal indies and TNL, TNL is given the same flow as Tink.
But what should be Tink’s TPP preference flow?
Here it gets a bit more fluid, I posit three options for Tink’s TPP preference flow;
ALP 60.3% Lib 39.7% (Scenario 1: Chesterfield-Evans actual 2019 in North Sydney)
ALP 68.3% Lib 31.7% (Scenario 2: Phelps implied 2019 in Wentworth)
ALP 76.3% Lib 23.7% (Scenario 3: Steggall implied 2019 in Warringah – same process as per Wentworth post.)
The TPP under each of the scenarios are;
Scenario 1: Lib 50.7%, ALP 49.3% (8.6%)
Scenario 2: ALP 51.1%, Lib 48.9% (10.4%)
Scenario 3: ALP 53.0% Lib 47.0% (12.3%)
(Swing to Labor from 2019 in brackets)
A wide range of results with Labor the favourite, but not 58-42 as ALP TPP provided to William.
I like to think Lars is resting in a lovely garden. Reposing against a tree, with a good book and whistling a ribald ballad.
7 down, 17 off last 3… my nerves!
William yesterday added the cautionary note that polls in such seats have a record of overstating the danger Liberal members are in. Even before questioning the whether the sample reflects the voting population in these polls, the treatment of preference flows has understated the current Liberal position in these seats.
Do these Wentworth/North Sydney polls overstate the swing against the Liberals?
We can compare the TPP swings against the Liberals calculated below against recent federal polling in NSW.
Wentworth: 7.9%
North Sydney: 8.6% – 12.3%
Newspoll Q4 2021: 4.8% (reported)
Roy Morgan Jan 2022: 9.8% (reported)
Resolve Jan 2022: 3.2% (est. w/2019 NSW TPP prefs)
Its not out of the realms of possibility that these polls are correct with appropriate preference calculations. It may be that the Liberals are on the nose in Inner Metro areas. But it is also possible that this poll is over-optimistic for Labor/Indies. I would say this is still an open question.
These results are still encouraging for the “Teals”. On these primary vote figures the Liberal MPs in Wentworth and North Sydney have a real fight on their hands, but Sharma and Zimmerman are not gone for all money.
The Morrison fans will love this. His latest cosplay? Pretending to be an operating vet:
https://twitter.com/BootsnAllPhotos/status/1487654476576018434/photo/1
How far are his handlers going to go with this absolute imbecile?
Wheeling out Birmingham in a Sunday afternoon is an interesting tactic.
Usually whoever is on Sunday morning media gets the free run on Sunday night news.
With Birmingham out spreading misinformation the LNP will probably lead the political news.
sprocket_ @ #1688 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 5:51 pm
Lars has been resorbed into the Re-education Camp at Menzies House.
The problem for Birmingham is that what he says and what the rest of us experience don’t align.
Now that really is going too far. I hope he gets lots of angry reaction.
Note: CDP and Drake-Brockman (Ind) contested in 2019
Which one of the Drake-Brockman clan contested Wentworth in 2019?
The wildlife centre is probably hoping for funding.