I’ve been a bit lax in keeping up on federal preselection developments of late, which have naturally been gathering pace as the big event gets closer. To keep things manageable, I will focus in this post on developments in New South Wales, which is where most of the action has been.
Things have been particularly lively in the Liberal camp, where Scott Morrison finds himself in the thick of factional warfare between his centre right faction and its principal numbers man, Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and an alliance of the moderate and the hard right factions. As Mike Steketee at the Saturday Paper relates, the latter have accused the former of obstructing the process so as to avoid rank-and-file ballots that may not go their way, potentially endangering Hawke himself. Steketee reports expectations that the end game will be a deal that leaves all sitting members undisturbed, with ballots to proceed in a number of important seats where it may have been prudent to have had candidates in place quite a bit sooner.
• Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph reports the failure of Scott Morrison’s seemingly desperate attempt to recruit Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah leaves Jane Buncle, a “high-flying junior barrister who believes in climate change”, as the favourite to run against independent Zali Steggall. However, James Massola of the Sydney Morning Herald reported party polling tested the prospects of Berejiklian, Buncle, former Premier Mike Baird and management consultant Alex Dore (who according to the Telegraph is still considering running), and found only Berejiklian would win the seat.
• In a particularly helpful account of the broader state of play, Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports three candidates have nominated in Parramatta, which the party is hopeful of knocking over with the retirement after 17 years of Labor member Julie Owens. These are Maria Kovacic, co-founder of Western Sydney Women; Felicity Findlay, acquisitions manager for property investment firm Merc Capital; and Charles Camenzuli, engineer and unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2010 and 2019. Silmaris notes the party has extended nominations in the hope that a stronger candidate might come forward. Former Parramatta councillor Martin Zaiter is “being wooed”; efforts to interest Geoff Lee, who holds the state seat of Parramatta, have come to nothing.
• One of the preselection challenges Alex Hawke is keen to head off is that against Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer, where she is threatened by Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights. Linda Silmaris’s report says “Mr Ellis’s supporters believe their candidate has the numbers, triggering panic among those backing Ms Ley”.
• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected to run against Labor member Susan Templeman in Macquarie, where she fell short by 371 votes on her first attempt in 2019.
On the other side of the aisle:
• Sarah Martin of The Guardian offers a revealing account of the complex state of play in Labor’s preselection for Parramatta. Local branches are dominated by the soft left faction associated with Laurie Ferguson, which duly favours a rank-and-file ballot. However, the faction is split between supporters Julia Finn, member for the state seat of Granville, and Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, neither of whom are “seen as acceptable to the federal executive”. This would appear to include Anthony Albanese, who may be about to sanction a push for the executive to take matters into its own hands due to familiar concerns about branch stacking. Albanese’s own branch of the Left favours Abha Devasia, legal director of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. However, the Right seemingly wants in as well, demanding compensation for the selection of the unaligned Daniel Repacholi to replace Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter.
• Also noted in Sarah Martin’s article is that a rank-and-file ballot to choose Sharon Bird’s successor in Cunningham is expected to be won by Alison Byrnes, a staffer to Bird and the wife of state MP Paul Scully.
• Labor’s candidate for Lindsay, which Melissa McIntosh won for the Liberals from Labor in 2019, will be Trevor Ross, a firefighter of 36 years.
No comment:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10323373/Devonport-jumping-castle-tragedy-Scott-Morrison-wife-Jenny-break-tears.html
A trained monkey would probably be a more appropriate conveyer of national grief than Scomo.
A trained monkey would be a better PM.
FMD.
He could make more money as a professional mourner than as Prime Minister!!
All that is missing is the sack cloth and ashes, although that could probably also be provided for an additional fee.
Is there no limit to this outrageous and profane obscenity?
Putin & Xi appear to be on the same wavelength:
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-and-russia-uniting-against-what-they-call-violation-and-interference-from-the-west/news-story/343b837a740b2ef7aee06b931637de40
‘ItzaDream says:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 6:17 pm
I knew someone would miss the point.’
——————–
Yep. It was Casals. Anthropomorphising birds is just another facet of the general human contempt for wildlife that is leading directly to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
Mavis says:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 6:27 pm
Putin & Xi appear to be on the same wavelength:
….’
—————————-
China needs to have peace along its border with Russia. For now. Other than that they Russians are sitting on huge swags of territory that the comrades believe was stolen from China by way of unequal treaties.
Late on a Saturday afternoon , here’s a quote from Mark Twain
“Politicians are like diapers. They both need to be changed regularly for the same reason”.
Boerwar
Thinking of how little the average person knows about birds reminds me that when my children were attending the local rural primary school I offered to give a few sessions about the birds of the area.
The teacher dismissed the idea immediately. “When they refer to birds, it’s girls,” she said.
lizzie
Around 50% right, bearing in mind that the gender imbalance in some species is rather large.
Boerwar:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 6:43 pm
I think China & Russia fear the new AUKUS arrangement but not more than they fear the feared Dutton.
Boerwar
😆
From memory, when the Port Arthur massacre occurred, Howard invited Beasley and Kernot to accompany him to Tasmania. I doubt that such an invitation was extended to Albanese and Bandt today.
Edit: added Bandt. Apologies for original omission
Re. Morrison’s visit to Devonport, it’s almost yesterday’s news already.
Mark Butler is the direct descndant of TWO SA Liberal premiers, father and son, both named Richard.
Bennelong Lurker:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 7:01 pm
[‘From memory, when the Port Arthur massacre occurred, Howard invited Beasley and Kernot to accompany him to Tasmania. I doubt that such an invitation was extended to Albanese today.’]
Albanese will probably visit without the fanfare. He certainly doesn’t need an invite from you know who. I think Albanese is underated by the CPG.
This will be a real test for Morrison to see what influence he really has. Currently top story on SMH landing page.
I’m sure that the medical authorities are doing what is most appropriate.
Mavis:
Agree. Was thinking of the difference in approach to matters that should be non- political.
Also I realise I misspelled Beazley . Whoops !
Gettysburg1863:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 6:52 pm
Twain has some great quotes, as does Jung, but the surprise, given his discipline, is Einstein – eg, “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
So Cricket Australia rang the pm’s office re Cummins
Nothing from the pm’s office
Then again, SA have a (minority) Liberal government
Imagine if it had been Victoria, Queensland or West Australia
The pm’s criticism would have been the front page news
This is the same pm who lent his support to Tasmania hosting the 5th Test in preference to Melbourne
Which, no doubt, Victorians have noted
With the marketeer who is out of his depth it is all about the politics and self promotion
Not sure if linked already but there are some interesting ruminations about the problems Morrison faces:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/18/the-second-coming-of-mr-miracle-or-drag-on-the-brand-could-the-liberals-decide-morrison-is-more-problem-than-solution
NSW health has seemed almost as politicised as the partisan jokes at the Commonwealth level, the the whole we will assume it is mostly omnicrom, without evidence, and then stop testing so they wouldn’t prove their own unsupported conjecture wrong is so stupid even NSW voters should see through it. Well ok not NSW but any other body of voters in the world.
“So Cricket Australia rang the pm’s office re Cummins”
Not at all surprising there is strong links between the PM’s office and cricket australia they share a whole raft of characteristics and values in common, and have about the same level of judgement and wisdom – negative on every scale.
Observer:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 7:31 pm
Have I ever suggested your paras are too short?
”
Griffsays:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 2:46 pm
Who said it here the other day? Morrison’s antics of doubling and tripling down on the marketing shtick (“shake and bake” etcetera) are having the opposite of the desired effect. Once people think ‘what a nong’, such behaviour results in a more negative opinion being held going forward.
Political focus group findings are only shaped by those willing to participate
”
Like “where the hell are you?” shouted by a bikini clad teenager (BTW I think she was a teenager at the time of the ad).
The Port Arthur Massacre occurred about 6 weeks into Howard’s Prime Ministership.
Steve777:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 7:41 pm
[‘The Port Arthur Massacre occurred about 6 weeks into Howard’s Prime Ministership.’]
Is there more analysis to come?
We had an extended, early Christmas party today – around 40. I avoided hugs & kisses as far as I could. But when they left, they persisted.
This surely can’t be true
https://twitter.com/prguy17/status/1472127442764460032?s=21
Papa says if you see it from PRGuy it’s so.
Kirky
I’ve seen it reported with Ref to Trump clearing thecrowd.
I have trouble believing even Scomo could be that bloody tone-deaf.
Its Scotty.
From the Sydney Morning Herald, apparently:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bmac23768441/status/1472129368503853056/photo/1
Meaghan Kall
@kallmemeg
NEW:
@UKHSA
Omicron Update
Variant Technical Briefing
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042046/Technical_Briefing_32.pdf
Omicron Risk Assessment
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041896/15-december-2021-risk-assessment-for-SARS_Omicron_VOC-21NOV-01_B.1.1.529.pdf
This is not mild at all.
The Toorak Toff @ #1314 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 7:06 pm
Thanks, TTT. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-sea-of-flowers-toys-and-white-balloons-as-devonport-locals-remember-their-beautiful-hilly-kids-20211218-p59ind.html
Nancy Baxter MD PhD
Head of Melbourne School of Population & Global Health
@unimelbMSPGH
. “Inspiring Steminist”, Surgeon, Real Vaccine Zealot, Clinical Epidemiologist, she/he
@enenbee
Australia, we have officially bet the farm on Omicron being considerably milder than all previous variants.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/nhs-could-face-surge-in-hospitalisations-despite-booster-say-scientists-omicron
In a preliminary study, researchers led by Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London found that vaccines are substantially less effective against Omicron than Delta and saw no evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder than Delta.
Sceptic:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 8:47 pm
[‘In a preliminary study, researchers led by Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London found that vaccines are substantially less effective against Omicron than Delta and saw no evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder than Delta.’]
That’s really a worry!
Really? A Labor PM would have done much the same in Devonport.
‘Two-week’ Christmas lockdown looms – Boris set to thrust new rules on UK after SAGE plea
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1537969/Christmas-lockdown-UK-Boris-Johnson-Covid-rules-latest-omicron-variant-update-sage
COVID-19: Officials drawing up plans for two-week post-Christmas lockdown over Omicron threat, reports say
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-officials-drawing-up-plans-for-two-week-post-christmas-lockdown-over-omicron-threat-reports-say-12498746
‘Mavis says:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 9:04 pm
Sceptic:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 8:47 pm
[‘In a preliminary study, researchers led by Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London found that vaccines are substantially less effective against Omicron than Delta and saw no evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder than Delta.’]
That’s really a worry!’
—————————
I believe that Bakunin who much earlier today pointed out that the modeling is based on some rather large assumptions.
Lars Von Trier:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 9:05 pm
[‘Really? A Labor PM would have done much the same in Devonport.’]
Yes but with a little less panache than Morrison.
Lars
“A Labor PM would have done much the same in Devonport”
Done what?
Cleared all the affected people out for a photo shoot?
You, and morals, as with your party of choice do not go together.
That’s about as polite as I can put it.
I don’t agree that the Jumping Castle deaths are either “unbelievably” or “unutterably” sad. They are tragedies, for sure, in that the victims were so young and innocent of blame for what happened to them, but unless you’re related to those victims, a friend or perhaps from the same small town, there’s nothing for the average person to get too upset over. Get a grip.
This is not a national tragedy. It is not really much more than a local one. There was apparently no malice involved, no drug abuse or other egregious acts. Perhaps negligence. Perhaps not. Morrison’s wailing and gnashing of teeth was, by any measure, a disgraceful display.
Been There:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 9:20 pm
[‘Lars
You, and morals, as with your party of choice do not go together.
That’s about as polite as I can put it.’]
Please stop being so polite – express yourself.
I am not going to attack ScoMo over Devonport. But his security detail might need to learn a few lessons in humanity but they might know something we don’t.
How graceless? If it gives the families some consolation having the pm turn up what’s wrong with that.
It’s been a thing for all pms since Keating to do.
Surely there are better things to attack the pm over than this.
They just didn’t want to risk anyone heckling him for hogging the limelight. Pure Reality TV-like melodrama.