Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No real change from Newspoll, except perhaps to its release schedule.

The Australian has dropped a new Newspoll a fortnight rather than three weeks after the last, perhaps portending a quickening of the schedule as the federal election approaches. Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 48% and disapproval to 49%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 37% and down one to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister edges from 47-35 to 47-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1545.

UPDATE: The poll also found 59% approval and 31% disapproval for Australia “building and operating nuclear-powered submarines”, which was put to respondents after an introductory spiel explaining the AUKUS deal. Forty-six per cent felt it would make Australia more secure, compared with 14% less secure and 29% for no difference. Seventy-five per cent rated that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security, compared with 15% who did not.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,554 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Let’s see the rest of the article you quoted from Taylormade.

    Just so we can get a little context.

    I’m pretty sure that your selective bit is not the entirety, but then, hey, that’s how you guys roll.

  2. Thanks C@t

    Taylormade has now run off with the tail between the legs.

    Hasn’t responded to one reply.

    Will be back tomorrow with a ” I’m a busy person, have to wax my surfboard for an early morning session, blah, blah, blah”.


  3. Still talk of an election being called this year. You only have to laugh, some people seriously need help.
    One word “Trudeau”, how did that go.

  4. The closed Huanan seafood market in Wuhan. The market was thought to be the source of the Covid-19 pandemic. But not a single animal infected with SARS-CoV-2 has been found.
    Let China keep its firewall of secrecy; a suspect who refuses to testify can still be convicted. We have an eyewitness, a whistleblower who escaped from Wuhan and carried details of the pandemic’s origin that the Chinese Communist Party can’t hide. The whistleblower’s name is SARS-CoV-2.
    Its a Lab leak.

  5. You miss the point. Trudeau was ahead in the polls and thought he could easily get a majority and the main reason he didn’t was people hated the early election.
    Morrison is behind, there is no way he will call one in 2021.

  6. “Save the CFA” was a Liberal Party funded and organised campaign, supported as it was by Murdoch for party political purposes

    The history of this matter can be Googled on the Victoria Parliament site so I won’t go to it except to say that all salaried fire fighters are now under the one organisation (and, by extension, all volunteers are under one organisation)

    The legislation was eventually passed thru both Houses of the Victorian Parliament, opposed by the Liberal Party

    I have in mind, but may be wrong, that the matter was referred to the independent Commission by the Liberal Party (along with other matters they have prosecuted against government)

    I also have in mind that Guy referred himself over a matter (exactly what I do not recall)

    Geographically we saw CFA Fire Stations in what had become residential and industrial Melbourne so you could put that volunteers are no longer at those Stations which are now staffed by full time employees, so the Captains would not be part time CFA volunteers

    Sometimes these matters never disappear

    Such as Eastlink and “No tolls”

    Such as the so called East-West link, defeated at the only election it was taken to but still an issue for the Liberal Party

    And the list goes on and on

    Dating from Robert Doyle, who went on to become Lord Mayor of Melbourne before resigning, as Opposition Leader

    Perhaps they should have stuck with Ted, who does have integrity

    He won an election after all

  7. The decision of the ACT Court of Appeal in relation to the prosecution of Collaery is a slap in the face for Dolly, Porter et al; for it, among other things, upheld the tenet that justice needs to be seen to be done and acts as a restraint on the Executive branch to persecute a person for political expediency.

    But it ain’t over yet. Cash’s office will be perusing the judgment with a fine tooth-comb, attempting to eke out an error(s) to justify an application for leave to appeal.

    I don’t think they’ll find a substantive ground. And if they don’t, what’s next? Well apart from being pissed, to avoid more scruitiny of this government’s lousy acts, the indictment will probably be nollied & nothing more will be heard of it apart from Collarey, who may well sue for malicious prosecution, the terms of which will be subject to a non-disclosure clause.

    At nearly 77, a debt is owed to Collarey’s steadfastness, but it might be a Pyrrhic victory, as anyone who’s been sued for whatever knows only too well.

  8. The problem Australia have with the Federal Government is identified by the need for a response that the ALP in government would not pursue the repayment of “jobkeeper” (and you would hope business would read the tea leaves and voluntarily repay the monies, not just a fraction for PR purposes)

    All this government is capable of is playing politics

    It is incapable of governing

    And now it has the resultant problems on many fronts both domestically and internationally (France, China, Pacific Nations, South East Asia Nations among a growing list – before we get to climate)

  9. Was the Fire Services matter (and other matters) referred to the Independent Commission by the Liberals (as Guy referred himself)?

    The Libs funded and organised the “Save the CFA” campaign, supported by Murdoch

    The legislation eventually passed both Houses, all paid staff under one organisation and all volunteers remaining under the CFA (where government funding of plant and equipment continues)

    You can go to the finer detail by Googling the Victorian Parliament site

    Bit like “No Tolls” and the so called East-West Link (defeated at the only election it was taken to)

    The Libs go on and on like a dog with a bone

  10. Lars Von Trier:

    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 9:36 pm

    $300. Free Viagra, whatever works, Queenslanders being a bit slack on the back of so few infected, deaths – only 7.

  11. Lars,

    Your second favourite obsession is the local petrol station where you can watch the numbers wheel around on the bowser.

    How lucky are you?

  12. The Lord Mayor of Melbourne is offering $1,000- (front page headline)

    And Guy is saying the government should advertise more

    So who are those who are resisting getting vaccinated?

    Please explain

    And it was ok to splash money on pensioners (whose income was not impacted) for Coronavirus impetus

    But others forced to their superannuation accruals


  13. Except, of course, that the experts who have looked into the genome of COVID say it’s not.

    As regards SARS-CoV-2 is concerned, “the experts” have gotten a lot wrong so far.

    For example, aerosol transmission, denial of which led to hotel quarantine, and its inevitable mismanagement, which then led to countless clusters and some quite serious outbreaks.

  14. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 10:03 pm

    Explain why when people stay at home for 14 days work, but quarantine didn’t?

    A few things I know.

    1. People didn’t put safety in their middle name – so even if you are in quarantine, does not give people right to relax and treat it like a holiday where they have sex, drink and have dinner..
    2. People escaped from hotel quarantine.
    3. Guard and Security were outsourced to 3rd party – it should be controlled by Military.

  15. The Libs go on and on like a dog with a bone

    It’s how they succeed. They go on and on and on about their agenda, even when it has been defeated at the ballot box. They just wait until they get into power again, and when they do, they say, well, we told you that’s what we wanted, and so, that’s what we are going to do.

    Even though, every time they went on and on and on about it, no one cheered, save for the tiny self-interested minority that they represent.

  16. Been There @ #1504 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 9:06 pm

    Thanks C@t

    Taylormade has now run off with the tail between the legs.

    Hasn’t responded to one reply.

    Will be back tomorrow with a ” I’m a busy person, have to wax my surfboard for an early morning session, blah, blah, blah”.


    He’s just another shameless Liberal. He’ll be back tomorrow with another carefully confected anti Labor outrage.

    I’ve just been watching a heap of videos about how Steve Bannon is actually the Christian Crypto Fascist Svengali who is stoking the Holy Civil War fire in America.

    Interestingly, he is not a particular fan Of Adolph Hitler, but of Benito Mussolini and his paramilitary fascisti!

    So that’s how they are rolling. Co-opting the Lunar Left, who just loathe the Centre Left more than the Right (a la Quoll and Firefox) to help them destroy the Centre Left party of government, and the people whom the Centre Left fight their political battles for-the working class. They harvest their anger and their votes. And, before you know it, well, you know the rest of the story.

    It is why I take Taylormade, michael and Bucephalus seriously. They are the Blue Ties/White Shirts (Brown Shirts). I don’t waste much of my time on them but I keep a watching brief over them. I mean, John Howard started this ball rolling, along with Malcolm Fraser. Though I imagine that a lot of it was at Howard’s urging, and may even be the root cause of Fraser’s guilt and disgust with his party. Democratic Socialist parties were ascendant until that little homunculus came along. Well, him and that other child of small business owners, Margaret Thatcher. And, of course, their facilitator, Rupert ‘Goebbels’ Murdoch.

    Australia sure has a lot to answer for. We sowed the wind and now the world is reaping the whirlwind.

  17. “Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 9:39 pm
    On the good news front – Australia is now 31/38 on the Guardian Covid vaccine tracker! Huzzah!”…

    Is that “good news”?…. You are obviously a person of extremely modest ambitions…. just like ScuMo.

  18. “Steve777says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 11:07 pm
    Media are reporting that NSW reached 56% fully vaccinated this afternoon.”….

    Which simply means that the Parrotet government must continue monitoring those infections, hospitalisations and deaths and close down again if there is a surge….

    In other words, nothing changes really, unless they stop worrying about infections, hospitalisations and deaths…. which would be morally criminal (perhaps legally as well)… and definitely politically suicidal.

  19. Alpo

    Frankly I couldn’t see any government confronted with exponential growth in hospitalisations not acting. As you said, leave aside the morality, it would be politically suicidal.

    Which leaves the only question worth asking. Will “freedom day” tip R over 1.0? Its a big gamble as to precisely how infectious vaccinated people are, when infected themselves. We know it isn’t zero.

    Its also a big gamble as to how “freedom day” affects the behaviour of non vaccinated people and how much they will interact with vaccinated people. If you could keep all of the non vaccinated people at home and segregate them entirely, I might buy into the theory. But that aint gonna happen.

  20. “michaelsays:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 9:12 pm
    The closed Huanan seafood market in Wuhan. The market was thought to be the source of the Covid-19 pandemic. But not a single animal infected with SARS-CoV-2 has been found.
    Let China keep its firewall of secrecy; a suspect who refuses to testify can still be convicted. We have an eyewitness, a whistleblower who escaped from Wuhan and carried details of the pandemic’s origin that the Chinese Communist Party can’t hide. The whistleblower’s name is SARS-CoV-2.
    Its a Lab leak.”

    Hey, Trumpie, is it you?….. Don’t waste your time with the Chinese and keep looking for that evidence of fraud at the last presidential election… and the evidence that there was fraud is all there: Biden won!… I mean, it’s crystal clear, nobody can hide that.

  21. Vaccine rollout:


    69.1% fully vaccinated; 89% first dose


    58.4% fully vaccinated; 80.5% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over

    – SMH

    On any criteria, these stats are looking rather good.

  22. Interesting that Norman Swan on ABC tonight chose Denmark as a possible example. He could have chosen better examples, I think.

    Denmark is 75% vaccinated (in real terms). It still has some restrictions in place (despite the TV segment making out that ‘everything was back to what it was like in 2019’). The worrying part is that if you look at the infection graph, there’s no clear trend (its currently going up).

    Current rate of infection in Denmark is about what it is in Australia. You might say fine, but I’d regard the current rate of infection in Sydney/Hunter as too high – and needlessly so.

    There are other countries we might choose to follow. Like for example Uruguay. Their infection rate is low and flat. Roughly a third of the rate per capita as Australia. Why? 74% vaccination rate (79 first dose vs 77 in Denmark).

    Portugal with an infection rate lower than Australia and going down steadily. 85% fully vaccinated.(world leader).

    Malta a third the infection rate of Australia and generally trending down. 82% fully vaccinated.

    Oh and another stupid thing that this government is doing is giving non vaccinated people a “freedom day” in December. That is only going to shave a couple of percentage points off the final vaccination rate. Stupid. We should be permanently banning non vaccinated people from social venues, full stop.

  23. Mavis

    We need to be high 90s (in Scomo units). There are of course some suburbs where the first dose level is in the 90s, but for no apparent reason (other than being secretive assholes) they won’t give us exact numbers.

    The most worrying trend is that the rate of increase in 1st doses in NSW fell when we got to 60% (real). We could still get past 80, but its going to take until the end of December at this rate, and weeks later when that propagates through to 2nd dose.

    And we also have the effect of waning immunity in the 50+ age group who got their shots months ago. Where’s our urgent booster rollout?

  24. LR

    covid19data is giving 71.6% first dose in NSW (total population)
    covidlive is giving 74.5% first dose in NSW (total population)

    I don’t know what explains the discrepancy.

  25. Just correcting my post at 11:40

    (getting tied up in conversions).

    NSW is at 71.5% (real) first dose. The current rate is 2.3% per week.
    So, NSW will get to 80% (real) first dose at this rate in 3.7 weeks. November 1st.
    2nd dose seems to be tracking 1st dose, but 5 weeks delayed.

    So we might, just might, get to 80% (real) by Dec 6. This would be real good.

  26. That’s where we’re headed Zerlo.

    Just that the Perroetet or whatever in NSW don’t quite get it.

    Unfortunately the rest of the country is going to have to wear the NSW failure courtesy of Princess Gladys.

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