The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
Steelydan, its leaving unsatisfied, their egos have not been rewarded adequately. Turnbull, Rudd and Keating it seems now remain miserable ghosts. They need to be busy at something and move on.
“Daniel Andrews is untouchable and has never, ever made a poor decision.”
***
Except for the outbreak in NSW – that was all Dan’s fault of course…
Andrews has certainly made mistakes and is far from perfect but the garbage the right has been hurling at him during this pandemic is just nonsense.
It feels very much like a macabre game of Battleship ™ here in South East Queensland.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 7:23 pm
….However, it is also a deal that encompasses integration of the submarine fleets of 3 countries, so that they can work together.
C@t you’ve mentioned this a few times.. it implies that the French solution doesn’t meet this criteria.. utter rubbish.
First you are no doubt aware that the French Navy is part on NATO.. so it is fully integrated into other NATO fleets.. the UK & US.
Second it’s not the boat that needs to integrate into other defence systems, it’s the weapons / communication systems that need to integrate & these are total independent of the sub itself. These already do as would the new systems.. especially as they are provided by Lockheed Martin
Even the Collins class boats have US derived compatible system.
In any event it’s a lot of money to pay for artificial reefs regardless of which country provides them, because that’s the only useful purpose they will serve.
Boerwar @ #1381 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 6:37 pm
You might also like this channel that looks in depth at the fall of different civilisations. Very well done. Also available as a podcast for audio only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B965f8AcNbw
BB again with attacking the person.
When you get beaten in an argument you do hold a grudge don’t you, just learn and move on.
‘Flaneur says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 9:08 pm
Queensland Health is issuing new contact tracing locations for:
Brisbane CBD
Hamilton
Eatons Hill
Brisbane City
Mermaid Waters
Merrimac
Surfers Paradise
Nerang
Virgin flight VA333 – Melbourne to Brisbane
It feels very much like a macabre game of Battleship ™ here in South East Queensland.’
___________________________
I recall my feeling of dread here in the ACT as it became more and more obvious that Berejiklian was not locking down the Bondi cluster. I knew then that it was only a matter of time before she got Covid into the ACT. We simply can’t close our borders to NSW. Can’t work.
I have the same feeling about Queensland now.
The feeling is not statistical, logical, or intuitive in any rational sort of way.
It was/is just a nameless dread that Queensland losing control over zero new daily cases.
I hope the feeling is wRONg.
JM
Thank you. Did a quick trawl. Looks v. interesting.
Steelsey, you’re tired. Get some sleep. Try again tomorrow.
And try not to take everything so personally.
Land borders are much harder to manage than air/sea borders. Especially within a country, unless we plan on de-federating :P.
Once it’s loose one place in Australia, it’s just a matter of time before it ends up all over.
Some keep asking why Dan Andrews suddenly flipped. Well, this is why. NSW has forced his hand, and eventually the hand of every other state and territory. He really has no choice. NSW was/is not going to (and has no intention to try) get the cases down to zero, and will be continually seeding every other state.
Some analysis today on the ABC on when the Election will be held. March or May seemed to be the most likely months.
I also found out that we can have a Senate election in May and a House of Representatives election in September. Never been done before however and very unlikely.
If Morrison is so beloved of his people, why not go now?
All this talk of stretching out the dates, poring over the Constitution, taking unprecedented steps and so on, smells like … fear.
Sportsbet LNP $1.88 ALP $1.90. About right nothing in it. If in the next two weeks Victoria keeps having days like today the polls will even up as well.
guytaur @ #1407 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 7:59 pm
Exactly. However, you ‘have to have read broadly and deeply on the subject’, in order to be allowed into the Armchair General clique. 🙄
JM
Every YouTube stream apparently ends with the Sea Peoples…
Interesting, but relevant?
The infected NSW truck driver who was unvaccinated should have his driver’s licence revoked. Though the Victim Warriors in the media would make him a cause celebre to beat up the Queensland government if it did happen.
Steelydan @ #1464 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:29 pm
Whatever happens in Victoria over the next two weeks is entirely NSW’s and the Coalition’s fault.
As I’ve suggested before there are three viable periods – and yes, they are all viable and have pretty strong arguments for and against.
November 20, 27 and December 4 2021 – Gives Morrison an excuse to promise and not be held to account if he doesn’t deliver – also gives him an excuse to not attend COP26 and not commit to anything. Also avoids a pre-election MYEFO and Budget and potentially limits the danger of the immediate case surges post-broader opening. – Honestly, if I were him, they look pretty appetitising politically – which is why I’m really really wary about dismissing this as an option.
March 5 2022 – Enables Morrison to avoid a pre-election Budget with red as far as the eye can see, with an electorate with NO appetite for the typical Liberal austerity bullshit. But, might be able to capitalise in the event that we’re not in a post-opening national medical emergency – but perhaps a little too far removed from the wonderful Christmas he’s promising.
May 21 2022 – the latest possible date, short of the split election stunt. This option requires everything to work out in the first four months of the year, and bringing forward an early Budget, I assume, framed around their national recovery plan… whatever that might be.
…also, the polling data we have is pretty clear. So far, Andrews isn’t being blamed for this. Even Gladys isn’t really being terribly impacted yet.
I was just saying I did not know it was possible to have separate elections and I found it interesting.
I think it may be you that needs a Bex and a lie down.
Young Germans tired of status quo put faith in Greens, liberals
BERLIN – Germany’s pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens could not be further apart on issues like taxation, climate change and fiscal policy, but Sunday’s election revealed one thing they do have in common: popularity among young voters.
An analysis of exit polls by Infratest dimap for broadcaster ARD showed that the Greens and FDP had won 23% each among first-time voters aged 18 to 22, compared with 15% and 10% for the Social Democrats (SPD) and conservatives respectively.
The results reflect frustrations with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservatives and their SPD coalition partners for slow progress on upgrading digital infrastructure and cutting emissions, and for closing schools while keeping factories open during the pandemic, researchers say.
“Young people have found more answers to issues they care about most, like climate change, with the Greens and FDP,” said Laura Schieritz, deputy leader of the FDP‘s youth wing. “They have said loud and clear that they want real change.”
While only about 14% of Germany’s ageing population are voters under the age of 30, compared with close to 58% that are 50 or older, gains among them helped make the Greens and the FDP kingmakers in this year’s election.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/29/uk-germany-election-youth
There’s some really interesting maps at this link which show where the parties gained and lost around the country: https://tmsnrt.rs/3B0xq8d
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/09/tasmania-doesnt-swing-with-nation-like.html
Tasmania Doesn’t Swing With The Nation Like It Used To
(being a detailed review of Tasmania’s recent history of doing odd things at federal elections. Summary at top.)
It would be a mistake to think Andrews is guaranteed reelection next year but he looks safer than Morrison does.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7b-fM-AxTc
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1427 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 8:23 pm
I do know about Australia’s world-leading research in Quantum Computing. I made the assumption that a partnership would produce dividends wrt to the submarine operating systems.
Let’s not be so hard on NSW hey?
If we’re going to put a nuke anywhere, it will be there.
TIA!
Jessica Rowe is getting a little treatment on Twitter. Who would have thought having a podcast on Pauline Hanson’s life, loves and dreams would have a downside?
Lars the Liberal apologist
That prediction was based on no lockdown. We had a lockdown. You’re a turkey (as well as a Liberal apologist).
Victoria says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 8:14 pm
Frednk
Text spammed?
“Hi frednk, it’s Sam from the Victorian Liberal Leader Matthew Guy’s team here. Mathew has asked me to reach out and see what issues are important to you in the local area. Is there anything you would like to raise.”
MB,
The harm isn’t to Hanson but to Jessica Rowe who is seen to be enabling her. I’m sure she understands that this internet thing is forever.
“…also, the polling data we have is pretty clear. So far, Andrews isn’t being blamed for this. Even Gladys isn’t really being terribly impacted yet.”
It is not about being blamed it is about Andrews doing worse at suppressing the virus than Gladys, particularly after all the talk. It just shows the LNP being better managers, the election wont be won in Victoria but Victoria being worse removes Covid as ALP’s chance to win the election. They may even need a policy or two not just cruise to victory on a disaster.
jt1983
“and potentially limits the danger of the immediate case surges post-broader opening”
They’re already talking about cases “going through the room”. It won’t take long for the virus to respond. A few weeks. Late October, early November is when people will notice.
[‘The Queensland premier took a series of swipes at her NSW counterpart in a dramatic speech in front of the nation’s business leaders, with two words ringing out the loudest.
Annastacia Palaszczuk reminded her audience that Queensland’s latest lockdown lasted only ‘eight days’ – which was the amount of time she said her NSW equivalent Gladys Berejiklian took before putting the neighbouring state into lockdown.
Ms Palaszczuk’s biting comparison came amid concern over the latest outbreak in Queensland, with growing fears over whether the NRL Grand Final should go ahead in Brisbane.
In comparison, Sydney is into its 14th consecutive week of lockdown, while the rest of the state has also seen months of stay-at-home orders
Sunday’s first-ever Brisbane NRL Grand Final is due to be played in Queensland, with more than 50,000 spectators set to pack into Suncorp Stadium.
An escalation in cases could spell danger for the final.
But Queensland recorded just one new local case [I thinks it was two] of Covid-19 on Wednesday as the state held off another lockdown while contact tracers worked to identify the source.
Queenslanders have enjoyed more normality in the second half of 2021 than their southern cousins.
‘Our neighbours fight to regain their freedoms,’ she said.
‘We fight to retain ours.’]
– Daily Mail Australia
Palaszczuk, D’Ath and Young have done a splendid job up here
in combating the spread of C.19 whereas Berejyklian, Hazzard and Chant not only wasted precious time before locking down but also, in the midst of high infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths, are almost champing at the bit as “Freedom Day” approaches on October 11, Palaszczuk having no regrets whatsoever in maintaining strong border controls, even though the pissant Treasurer threatens to withhold federal funds for those Queenslanders adversely affected. This is to be expected from a man who identifies so closely with that dragon Thatcher.
Jaeger @ #1466 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:00 pm
They seem a popular theme.
😀 It’s the Sea Peoples what dunnit.
Vaccine rollout:
NSW
62.9% fully vaccinated; 86.7% first dose
National
53.4% fully vaccinated; 77.3% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over
– SMH
Roy
Its a strange choice by Jessica Rowe.
You didn’t know Senate and House elections can be on different dates, yet you come here purporting to be a serious commentator on politics, spewing all kinds of judgemental crap all over the board?
Worse, you get all excited as if this is some kind of startling information. Impressive!
Please stop digging, Steelsey. You’re making a fool of yourself.
Jaeger @ #1485 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:53 pm
The Bronze Age aliens?
Going through the roof^
Did Pauline Hanson talk about the two loves of her life, David Ettridge and David Oldfield? 🙂
Australia now 42% fully vaccinated.
We need to be twice that.
Morrison is desperate to have a nov election to avoid all the covid cases,economic disasters and obvious unemployment that will occur once states open up and the feds stop giving away taxpayers money in job saver.
Wow I just read that You Tube is blocking all Anti Vax content and Anti Vax comment! 😯
USA want to damage China economy and want to bully their European Allies to do it:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/us-needs-to-work-with-europe-to-slow-chinas-innovation-rate-raimondo-says.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
WASHINGTON – Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Tuesday that the U.S. will rally allies in order to mount pressure on China, the world’s second-largest economy, an approach that differs from the “America First” policies pursued by President Joe Biden’s Republican predecessor, Donald Trump.
“America is most effective when we work with our allies,” Raimondo told CNBC’s Kayla Tausche in an exclusive interview. “If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe.”
“They’re ripping off our IP, they are not playing by the rules. It’s not a level playing field. And so we need to hold their feet to the fire to make sure that they do that,” she said, adding that Beijing is “not living up to the agreements that they made.”
The USA never played by the rules either, they ripped off IP and if they didn’t they make a lawsuit or buy outright (Apple).
And banning prominent Anti Vax activists. They seem to be finally realising that their medium is the message carrier.
C@t
What took them so long?
What a load of obnoxious gatekeeping bullshit.
The poster you’re sneering at admitted that they were ignorant about something and were pleased to learn something new. That’s something to be celebrated, not condemned. And it’s hell of a lot better than being some armchair expert who thinks they already know everything and just dribbles shit most of the time.
@Zerlo – what do you expect? China is an aggressive adversary of the US on almost every front.
BTW – they’re as bad as each on many of those fronts. Not all, but many.
jt1983says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 11:30 pm
Funny I call it a competition.