Essential Research leadership and COVID polling

The shine continues to come off Scott Morrison’s COVID-boosted personal ratings, plus new evidence of a softening in support for the Coalition among women.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.

Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”

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  1. Guytaur

    That was a year ago.
    Hence why NSW should have heeded all the harsh lessons learnt in Victoria.
    Last May when it seeded in Melbourne, there was still a lot that wasnt understood.
    But the experience of Victoria should have made it very clear what to do going forward.

    Instead what did Gladys and Co do.

    The people of NSW should be pissed off with them and of course Morrison and co.
    They have failed to take the right course of action.

    There is a saying, when you know better, you do better.

  2. Confessions
    “Those people are out and about because there are places for them to be out and about in.”

    Well put. Do Ikea and Harvey Norman REALLY need to be open?

  3. Victoria

    Yes.

    As you saw from Mr Rudd’s tweet Murdoch media is actively undermining the communication effort of the NSW government.

    It’s a cascading failure of people who should know better. With the Murdoch media I am not surprised. They have form from the US.


  4. Soharsays:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 9:49 am
    Bondi v Bankstown this morning. Spot the difference.


    What is the answer of BBill to above photos. He was lecturing me yesterday about how I should pipe down.


  5. Soharsays:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 9:49 am
    Bondi v Bankstown this morning. Spot the difference.


    What is the answer of BushfireBill to above photos. He was lecturing me yesterday about how I should pipe down.

  6. ar

    Or the medical profession can take it upon itself to establish industry-wide ethical standards on the matter. What morally defensible justification is there for denying a patient access to their own medical records in the general case, even if the law technically allows it due to legislation being mute on the subject?

    Which the medical profession has done. This is the advice from Avant the biggest mutual medical indemnity insurer
    https://www.avant.org.au/Resources/Public/Medical-records-the-essentials/

    This was a hot topic in the 90s but now largely resolved. But to get back to the initial question, medical practices have a right to charge a reasonable processing fee for the release of records.

  7. Early on in an outbreak is when changing our behaviour has the most effect. The problem is that choosing to wait and see (e.g. to inform a “proportionate” response) also means choosing to miss the opportunity for the least costly, more effective, and most efficient action.

  8. The person that posted the “Bondi / Bankstown” photos doesn’t know the differene between Coogee and Cronulla, so I wouldn’t get too exercised about it.

  9. Is there room for isolation-at-home support services, including financial? I am trying to figure out while people don’t come forward – murky movement history; not wanting to be locked down; need to work; etc

  10. What is the answer of BBill to above photos. He was lecturing me yesterday about how I should pipe down.

    What are you more concerned about, Ven?

    ● Trying to stop the virus?
    ● Pursuing irrelevant whinges about non-existent racism?

    It was the same whingeing last year when Chinese businesses went on about losing most of the customers (most of their customers being Chinese).

    It was also the same when overseas students were prevented from entering Australia.

    It was the same when Dan Andrews licked down those housing commission towers.

    The virus doesn’t fucking care what your ethnicity is, Ven.

  11. OC

    The question of ownership of medical records was a hot topic in the 90s but now largely resolved

    Probably needs another look at, then :P.

  12. guytaur @ #800 Saturday, July 10th, 2021 – 11:25 am

    Victoria

    Yes.

    As you saw from Mr Rudd’s tweet Murdoch media is actively undermining the communication effort of the NSW government.

    It’s a cascading failure of people who should know better. With the Murdoch media I am not surprised. They have form from the US.

    Rupert Murdoch was one of the first in the world to be vaccinated.
    Rupert Murdoch wears a mask and practices social distancing.
    Rupert Murdoch is a flaming hypocrite.


  13. ItzaDreamsays:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 10:29 am
    I see Socrates has already posted this link, but this jumped out at me

    From his home in Connecticut, Pfizer’s former president of global R&D, John LaMattina, has been closely observing the global rush for vaccines, including Australia’s efforts to procure doses.

    Sales pitch for Pfizer and nothing more.

  14. She again squibs the question of what is an essential service.

    Totally ideological and beholden to the hardliners in the cabinet.

  15. Ven @ #2330 Saturday, July 10th, 2021 – 11:37 am


    ItzaDreamsays:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 10:29 am
    I see Socrates has already posted this link, but this jumped out at me

    From his home in Connecticut, Pfizer’s former president of global R&D, John LaMattina, has been closely observing the global rush for vaccines, including Australia’s efforts to procure doses.

    Sales pitch for Pfizer and nothing more.

    Pity our government didn’t listen to it.

  16. Ven says:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 11:27 am

    Soharsays:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 9:49 am
    Bondi v Bankstown this morning. Spot the difference.

    More a case of Bondi being inhabited by the fatuous Instagram generation than policing policy.

  17. “Essential white good or baby product, it’s a fine line.”

    What a crock! They can be bought online if necessary.

    We need to close the shops. Don’t mess with delta.

  18. A reminder. Berejikilian is in between the devil and the deep blue sea without JobKeeper and Jobseeker in place.

    A lot of this essential business confusion arises directly from that.

  19. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 11:35 am

    It was the same when Dan Andrews licked down those housing commission towers.
    _____________
    I didn’t see that but it sounds disgusting.

  20. laughtong @ #774 Saturday, July 10th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Victoria @ #2222 Saturday, July 10th, 2021 – 9:59 am

    c@t

    Has Taylormade mentioned the fact that liberal luvvie Helen Connan has been on the board of Crown throughout the duration?

    The notion that the liberals want Crown punished is quite hilarious actually.

    Not only that. Current Liberal state leader Michael O’Brien was the minister who merged the liquor and gaming regulators. Part of the reason Crown has been able to get away with so much.

    I thought a previous Liberal government had to be behind the Regulator snafu but I wasn’t game to say it. 😀

  21. DisplayName says:
    Saturday, July 10, 2021 at 11:41 am

    Recon
    The point is that there never really was one. Only the illusion of one.
    __________
    Of course. We saw it here when Andrews was saying the same thing about Victoria’s emergency services when NSW was burning. Of course, when Victoria started to burn soon after we lost the Gold Standard too.

  22. Protect the retail workers. Their health is more important than the employer’s hip pocket. And it the latter is what bothers the Coalition, then provide financial support.

  23. My son has been to the shops at The Entrance today for his NDIS client. I’ll ask him what it was like when he gets home.

  24. As for policing. There is racism when today the approach in the eastern suburbs is different to the south western suburbs.

    The government has to be clear it’s approach changes with lessons learnt. Then apply those lessons equally everywhere.

  25. I am reminded of the sunday morning in March last year when we scattered my late sons ashes off Fremantle.
    His best mate from school is a senior advisor to a WA minister and he spent a lot of time on his phone.
    What’s up, I asked.
    We’re going to close the borders and shut things down, he replied.
    You can’t do that.
    Watch us, he said with a smile.
    I’ll be off to the shops in a while. It’s a sunny morning after some torrential rain (by Perth standards) yesterday.
    I’ll have to wear a mask for the brief time I spend indoors.
    Later in day I’ll go out for a drink and something to eat.
    Good luck to NSW bludgers.

  26. BB

    Dan Andrews licked down those housing commission towers.

    Sounds unhealthy!

    It was indeed looking grim for a while DN, until Dan re-read his press release and realized there had been an obvious typo.

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