Affirmative inaction

Federal preselection season keeps rumbling on, with the Queensland LNP settling a keenly fought Senate contest on the weekend.

Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.

On with the show:

• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.

• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Affirmative inaction”

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  2. West Coast Eagles team seems to have it fair share of white supremists, or does the hand sign mean something else for the team?

    Calling ‘fake’ on that. I reckon you can see the photoshop on the bottom left hand symbol.

  4. OC: “I think we should get Hutcho’s first wife into Canberra – what could go wrong?”

    She had her chance and didn’t make it. But surely a Senate seat awaits her at some future point.

    Really, what goes on in the modern ALP gives nepotism a bad name.

  5. The Greens campaign is having some effect even if you will never hear it said.

    Paying it back it nix compared to ongoing payment of a fair tax. This is a golden opportunity.

    Our tax dollars helped big corp. Now we they need to pay their fair share of tax.

  6. Socrates @ #78 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 11:15 am

    Two cheers to Victoria for announcing the EV purchase subsidies after days of embarrassing publicity about the appallingly badly timed and targeted EV usage tax.

    I am generally in favour of road usage charges; most transport planners are. But they should apply to all vehicles using vehicles, not only EVs.

    The suggestion that falling petrol excise revenue (a Federal tax) justifies a state tax grab is laughable. EVs do reduce petrol tax revenue. But they also reduce health and environmental costs from less GHGs and less pollution. Those were the original justifications for the petrol tax excise (go back and ask Ros Kelly; she increased it for leaded petrol). So there is no tax avoidance in an EV not paying petrol excise.

    Road maintenance costs are supposed to be paid for by vehicle registration fees, which EVs still pay. Though many cash-strapped states spend some of the rego money on new construction, which relates more to population growth. Make the developers pay that.

    Trucks, not EVs, pay far less in registration fees than they should, because they do most of the damage to roads. But politically no government, Labor or Liberal, wants to tax trucks more.

    The EV tax smacks more of class warfare, assuming all EV owners are wealthy and can afford it. For many environmentalists who have bought a second hand Nissan Leaf, that is plainly false, but dumb policy is usually fact-free. They can vote Green.

    As for the subsidy in EVs, like new house construction, we will see a price spike, but little or no change in market. What if demand exceeds the subsidies allocated? Do people draw lots? This smacks as a band aid fix to buying back better PR, after the original announcement got so much deserved derision.

    So Tim Pallas, you get the Frydenberg award for bad policy motivated by ideology and ignorance. Your stated reasons for your dumb EV policy are plainly false. As others have said, if you want to understand the issue quickly and clearly, here is the best source:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLflYkgnNBY

    As much as I’ve been a strong advocate for a lot of what the Vic Govt has done, there’s simply no ignoring this stupid EV tax from Pallas.

    The Labor right always finds a way to repel voters.

  7. Yep Poroti,

    So much of the problematic position Australia is now in was sown by idiocy from years or decades ago
    Good fortune to all those countries as you say, who benefitted from the research and learning many originally conducted and found here

    Even worse is seeing how the continuing current idiocies will be impacting for years down the line as well

  8. I have just filled out a VicHealth Covid vaccine safety survey, to give details of any physical reaction to the vax. Something’s going to plan, apparently!!

  9. guytaur: “The speech by Cassy O Connor reminded me of the Greens of the Franklin Dam and Gay Law Reform era. ”

    I was sitting in the audience and her speech reminded me of one of Fidel Castro’s famous 4 hour diatribes. Well, it certainly seemed like it went for 4 hours.

  10. guytaur
    Gerry would cop extra attention due to his frequent public whinges, usually about how tough it is for him.

  12. I have no problem with a road tax all vehicles pay. So long as it is by weight and takes into account other costs like health impacts of pollution and noise.

    In fact, slap it on road cyclists too. Just because.

  13. Baba

    Yes O Connor used the media spotlight to maximum effect and all you have is whining about the duration.

  15. Lizzie,

    “Does providing a gov grant towards a purchase always send the price up?”

    In the short run, yes.

    Over the long run, it depends.

  16. “Jobkeeper was indeed quite blunt and wasteful (and this bluntness went on way too long). But it is an uphill battle to attack something that was broadly popular.”

    I think most people are pretty supportive of the idea of keeping small businesses afloat during the pandemic, drastic action had to be taken. But Harvey Norman didn’t need it and now that that’s painfully obvious they should be made to pay it back. Just listen to this wanker bragging about how awesome the pandemic was for his bank balance…

    Gerry Harvey on why Harvey Norman was retail winner of the pandemic

    Furniture and electrical retailer Harvey Norman experienced a massive sales surge in the past year that is spilling over into 2021 as the retailer records record profits.

    “I’ve been doing retail since the late 1950s and I’ve never seen anything like this,” the retailer’s chairman and co-founder Gerry Harvey told news.com.au

    Harvey Norman’s first-half profits have more than doubled, with huge spikes in sales continuing through January and February.

    Total sales for the global retailer increased more than 20 per cent for the start of 2021. In Australia alone, total sales rose more than 22 per cent in the first two months of the year.

    “We’ve seen ups and downs and recessions but retail in Australia has never seen this,” he said.

    Harvey Norman recorded a 116 per cent lift in half-year net profit to $462 million as revenue across its stores jumped more than 25 per cent to $5.12 billion. The retailer recorded profit before tax at $644 million, a 114 per cent increase from $301 million in the previous half year.

    “The big rise is because people have been spending on their homes and not going out. That’s happening right across the world,” he said.

    ”It hasn’t stopped. In April, May and June, sales went through the roof and it hasn’t stopped in January and February.”

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/gerry-harvey-on-why-harvey-norman-was-retail-winner-of-the-pandemic/news-story/bd7e3de9148a760a6a5f6cf915c7afff

  17. @joshuabadge tweets

    The Australian government is really like “It’s not racist, we just keep closing borders to all the poc countries and not the white ones for health reasons”
    ____________
    @skynewsaust tweets (parody)

    Scott Morrison says a “talking platypus” visited him in a vision and urged him, in the name of the lord, to start locking up Australians.

  19. SK,

    Going on weight of a 10kg bike v a 2,000kg car. I’m willing to pay the 40c or so rego if that will shut up a stupid comment like yours. In fact when we factor in the health benefits, reduced pollution, congestion and parking space taken up. Every kilometre of cycling is like the cyclist is giving society big amounts of money. So you’re welcome…

  21. Simon Katich @ #112 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 12:12 pm

    I have no problem with a road tax all vehicles pay. So long as it is by weight and takes into account other costs like health impacts of pollution and noise.

    In fact, slap it on road cyclists too. Just because.

    Pallas is an advocate of PPP’s for road infrastructure which includes tolling for the private companies to make a motza. He has shares in Transurban.

    I’ve always argued Govt should build, maintain and toll all road infrastructure at break even cost.

  22. @mattjcan tweets

    We should be helping Aussies in India return not jailing them. Let’s fix our quarantine system rather than leave our fellow Australians stranded.

    @AustralianLabor tweets

    Even Scott Morrison’s own MPs think this is a terrible idea.

  23. “I see it’s uncomfortable for Labor partisan warriors. The Greens are back.”

    Sure are!

    The Green surge continues. People have had enough of the two old parties who don’t take climate change seriously. They’re sick of the duopoly letting the rich elite get away with putting profit before people and the planet.

  24. “Where had they gone?”

    As I said on election night, the last Tassie Greens’ campaign wasn’t up to scratch. They have reversed that and bounced back in a big way. Great to see and bodes well for future state and senate contests down there.

  26. Dandy Murray @ #94 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 11:44 am

    Lizzie,

    “Does providing a gov grant towards a purchase always send the price up?”

    In the short run, yes.

    Over the long run, it depends.

    The problem of too many early adopters in the market is that price isnt really a factor in their decisions. But now there is some competition in the market and the subsidy should attract new buyers one would hope market forces will keep a lid on the retailers.

  32. Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick

    Reynolds raises a really strange point: “Is the NDIS actually making people less functional over time?” maybe your data sucks?

    Looks as if Reynolds is toeing the LNP line that if you assist people they will just become lazy and reliant on handouts. That doesn’t bode well for any restructure.

  34. Yes, I guess something to cheer the Greens up a bit in Tassy….However, I just sense the Greens are like the second rider on a tandem bicycle….lot of peddling and pushing hard, but will never be in a position to steer the bike…..

  35. To be clear, nobody is suggesting that people should be allowed to drive high. That is not what these tests determine. They do not work the same way as RBTs. Rather than testing impairment, they detect any trace amounts of drugs in someone’s system. Someone who is completely sober who smoked a joint weeks ago could be caught by one of them, it happens all the time. Then they are falsely charged with driving under the influence of drugs, when in reality they were sober. The tests need to test for amounts that lead to impairment, just like RBTs do, not simply for any trace amounts.

    On a side note, in the age of COVID, is it really such a great idea for cops to be giving people saliva swabs? One after another after another? They have to get close to the person to swab them, then the next, and the next… If just one person in a car has COVID and give it to the cop that tests them, the cop could become a super-spreader and pass it on to everyone else they test. Could be prevented by the cops simply wearing masks.

  36. Sam Connor
    @criprights
    ·
    10m
    I am gobsmacked at Minister Reynold’s lengthy opening speech, which asks whether we are ‘functioning less with the support from the NDIS’ and challenges the idea that usual population growth in the scheme is okay because their initial assessments were incorrect.

    Wow. #RoboNDIS

  37. guytaur
    Damage to roads and weight of vehicle are closely linked. So no difference between electric or ICE. ICE ones could have a pollution charge tacked on though.

  38. Tricot

    Yes the ACT government is a figment of political imagination the way Labor people talk. My apologies if you are actually a Liberal for the assumption

  40. guytaur @ #91 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 11:54 am

    Good Morning

    I see it’s uncomfortable for Labor partisan warriors. The Greens are back.

    As I said on election night. The speech by Cassy O Connor reminded me of the Greens of the Franklin Dam and Gay Law Reform era. The political landscape was worse for them then.

    Today the Greens are back they are not going away despite N’s WA fantasies.

    I am hoping that the slight chance of the second independent gets up to not only give Labor power in Tasmania but also massively embarrass Morrison.

    If as expected the Liberals do win that does not change the win for the Greens and the morale boost and confidence that gives the national party.

    A lot of Tasmanians voted against the Liberals you must have a majority party in government campaign.
    There is a warning to Labor partisans in that too.

    Um, the Greens got 12% in the Tasmanian election, upon which their leader made an incredibly arrogant speech.

  41. AJM

    Arrogant speech. Hmmmm.

    Nah. It was an angry speech. It’s going to be a very difficult four years for the Liberals if they do win. The no mandate is something Labor partisans can get behind.

    Edited: Removed the govern bit for obvious reasons. Just bad language on my part.

  42. Sam Connor
    @criprights
    ·
    22m
    Minister Reynold’s opening speech is the equivalent of a filibuster, which is stopping Senators
    @Jordonsteele and @nitagreenqld from questioning her.
    #RoboNDIS

  43. Alpha Zero @ #119 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 11:47 am

    SK,

    Going on weight of a 10kg bike v a 2,000kg car. I’m willing to pay the 40c or so rego if that will shut up a stupid comment like yours. In fact when we factor in the health benefits, reduced pollution, congestion and parking space taken up. Every kilometre of cycling is like the cyclist is giving society big amounts of money. So you’re welcome…

    Ahhhh. I can see the allure of trolling now.

    I said road cyclists. Not road cycles. So the weight would be substantially more than 10kg. We can add a premium to the tax for the heavy attitude.

    But hey, in all seriousness, I am all for more commuting cycles on the road. I used to ride everywhere when I lived in Sydney to get to sport and Uni. I have been an advocate for taxing city carparks and closing every second street of the Adelaide CBD road grid and give them to cycles and pedestrians. And more dedicated whole lanes on arterials. It would encourage more cycle commuting and reduce road accidents involving cyclists.

    My beef isnt with commuters but with weekend cyclists out for a leisurely ride and a chat, 2 or 3 abreast, at well under 20km/h in on windy narrow roads. I dont play cricket in the middle of the road, so stop talking and pedal!

  44. @AsherWolf tweets

    Australia’s healthcare, disability and social security system is adversarial and support funding access is gated. People without the capacity, supports and advocacy to fight for their rights get nothing. So many ppl are completely abandoned and left to rot

  45. guytaur @ #141 Monday, May 3rd, 2021 – 12:45 pm

    AJM

    Arrogant speech. Hmmmm.

    Nah. It was an angry speech. It’s going to be a very difficult four years for the Liberals. The no mandate to govern is something Labor partisans can get behind.

    To a rusted on supporter it may have looked “angry” but I can tell you, that as a person who supports very strong action on the environment, it came across to me as plain arrogant. I had the same reaction as I did to Keating. Although I supported most of his policies, his arrogance really turned me off.

  46. My beef isnt with commuters but with weekend cyclists out for a leisurely ride and a chat, 2 or 3 abreast, at well under 20km/h in on windy narrow roads. I dont play cricket in the middle of the road, so stop talking and pedal!
    ____________________
    Yeah I do that as well as commute by bike *before remote working from home (Covid).
    The 2 wide is safer than single file. Again the mental health benefits of riding somewhere nice in a lush forest, going up hills, etc outweigh your 5 seconds of inconvenience. Purchase some patience and chill out dude 😉

  47. Paul Kelly, the CMO – not the iconic singer/songwriter – not the pompous SmearStralian opinion – not the great half-back flanker for the Swans – said wtte:

    The claim that criminal jail sentences and $66,000 fines for Australian citizens returning from India, was based on medical advice…. Well, no it wasn’t.

  48. Happy to report my 3 preferred candidates – Dean Winter (labor) David O’Byrne (labor) and Rosalie Woodruff (green) were all elected.

  49. ajm

    It’s not arrogance.
    It’s anger. Opponents are keen to call it arrogance to discredit the contents of the speech.

  50. Paul Kelly didn’t say what everyone is thinking, that banning Indians – when citizens from pandemic ravaged USA and UK were allowed in – is the standard Liberal dog whistle

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