The Guardian reports Essential Research has unloaded its latest quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention results, which should presumably appear in full later today. According to the pollster’s headline “2PP+” measure, which leaves a hole marked “undecided” in its two-party preferred, the Coalition and Labor are both on 46% while undecided is at 7% (presumably the failure to sum to 100 is down to rounding). We are also told that the Coalition is on 39% of the primary vote with Labor on 34%, but this too would be from a set of numbers including an undecided component of around 7%.
There is also a particularly wide gender gap in the latest results, though I’m not clear if they are basing this entirely on the latest poll result or from a quarterly accumulation like the ones familiar from Newspoll. The Coalition trails Labor by 37% to 31% on the primary vote among women, which converts to 50% to 38% on 2PP+, whereas the January result had the Coalition leading 37% to 33% on the former measure and 47% to 44% on the latter. Conversely, the Coalition leads Labor among men by 47% to 31% on primary and 55-42 on 2PP+.
This was all in addition to the usual fortnightly release from Essential Research, which offered yet more data on COVID-19. Forty-three per cent now think the vaccine rollout is being done efficiently, down from 68% in late February, while 63% think it is being done safely, down from 73%, and 52% think it will be effective at stopping the virus in the country, down from 64%. Forty-five per cent rate felt the rollout was proceeding more slowly than they would like, which is in fact a seven-point improvement on a fortnight ago: among this group, 48% felt the federal government most responsible, up six points.
There have also been two further tranches of results from Newspoll’s weekend poll, one of which related that the Morrison government’s handling of COVID-19 was rated positively by 70% (down from 82% in June) and negatively by 27% (up from 15%), and that 53% were satisfied with the vaccine rollout compared with 43% who were unsatisfied. The other set of results related perceptions of the two party leaders according to nine character traits. Compared with the last such results in August, Scott Morrison was held in slightly lower regard overall, the biggest movement being a ten point drop on “understands the major issues”. Anthony Albanese’s ratings were stable – the only one on which he scored better than Morrison was “arrogant”, a quality attributed to Morrison by 52% and to Albanese by 40%.
Lars
As I’ve previously told you, it’s not a situation I’m happy with.
Unlike the Greens or Liberals or religious types, I can recognise that the organisation I’m part of isn’t perfect and will sometimes do things I don’t agree with, largely because that’s the case with anything involving humans.
Apparently, hair does count. No bald presidential aspirant has been elected since Eisenhower, and could Blair be having a late-life crisis or perhaps another tilt:
[‘What is it with male politicians and their hair these days? After decades — centuries — of nondescript short cuts, their crowning glory has suddenly turned into a form of creative expression. And source of controversy.
It often seemed as if no one could top Donald Trump’s incredibly complicated cream puff of a construction — until Boris Johnson, with his signature flyaway platinum locks (the ones that he uses to distract, amuse, disarm and otherwise manipulate those around him), arrived at 10 Downing St. as Britain’s prime minister.
Or, rather, Tony Blair’s long, flowing grey hair did. There hasn’t been a former member of the league of NATO nations who let it all down like that since President Lyndon B. Johnson.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/tony-blair-rocks-the-world-with-his-shaggy-new-look-20210430-p57npf.html
Next time I need a UX prototype screencam-ing or an Acceptance Tester I know just who to call: https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/30/essential-research-2pp-coalition-46-labor-47-undecided-7/#comment-3599012
Mavis
On hair. I absolutely hate the fashion for a bald skull and a bristly cheek/chin covering, especially if it’s grey. It looks so scruffy. Sorry, chaps.
I notice we have another census coming up in August.
Now that David “Big Data” Kalisch has gone from the ABS I will probably fill it out, but I will be putting random answers in to any questions I feel are nobody’s business but mine. One of my favorite questions is always religion, which I assume will be in again this year (haven’t checked).
This year, I will put “Gaian”.
Fascinating insights, Cut Snake. Thank you!
Do you interact with Dr John Falzon much? He is my ideal Catholic (if you need to be a Catholic). 🙂
I’m interested in what posters mean when they say they are atheists. Essentially, are you saying that you don’t believe in a (such and such) deity, or that you know that there isn’t one. Each of those options is a can of worms, but just trying to get a feel for things.
(I’ve very much enjoyed zoomster’s posts this morning.)
I’m an atheist who firmly believes in both freedom of religion and freedom from religion.
I am also incredibly proud to be represented in the Federal Parliament by Senator Faruqi, who happens to be a Muslim. She does a fantastic job of representing my political views and I would not swap her for anyone. I also fully support the great work that she does in calling out and condemning discrimination against anyone.
Someone does not need to be an atheist to be a progressive. Let’s just make that clear. Likewise, not all far-right conservatives are fundamentalist Christians. I think we need to be very careful to not label someone as this or that in the political spectrum based on their religious beliefs.
I’m Agnostic. I’ve had an open invitation to God or one of his representatives on earth to come around to my place for dinner in order to show me the proof of the existence of any deity in order to satisfy my scientific curiousity, but as of today, no one has taken me up on my offer. Maybe tomorrow? 🙂
I used to interact with John Falzon when he was still CEO of the National Office. He left that office when he stood unsucessfully for ALP preselection a couple of years back and has gone to a Think Tank somewhere. At that time I was in a fairly senior position within the volunteer ranks while he was a paid employee. He is a super intelligent man, and a nice guy with it.
Cut Snake,
I was saddened that the ACT ALP failed to choose him for the Senate. Katy Gallagher is also a good choice though.
I am confused by the term “identity politics”, which Morrison seems to be against.
As I’ve said before, my eldest son is a devout Catholic who believes he can divine God’s will by reading the astrological positions of the stars.
It takes all sorts to make the world go round. 🙂
He’s not insane either. Very rational. Just a believer in two things at once.
ItzaDream
I’m an atheist of there is no god(ess) of any flavor variety.
When is Sceptic back?
Unlike the Greens or Liberals or religious types, I can recognise that the organisation I’m part of isn’t perfect and will sometimes do things I don’t agree with, largely because that’s the case with anything involving humans.
From one poster here who seems exactly the type to flip flop from one fixated belief system and organisation to the other, who rarely misses any opportunity to try and make some inane dig at whoever they believe the ‘other’ is at the time.
If any group of people ever had the remarkable self-insight and understanding of events and other humans that some bludgers appear to claim regularly, then they might be the most honest, straightforward, effective and influential people ever to exist. As events and recent history would clearly reveal.
‘Historic’ legal blow for Merkel’s climate plan amid Green surge
Germany’s highest court ruled Thursday that the government’s flagship climate protection plan was “insufficient”, a major setback for Angela Merkel’s right-left coalition in an election year when environmental issues are expected to take centre stage.
In a decision hailed by activists as “historic” and “sensational”, Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled that Berlin’s current goal of reducing CO2 emissions to 55 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 was “incompatible with fundamental rights” because it failed to cover the years beyond this decade.
The current measures “violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young” because they “irreversibly offload major emission reduction burdens onto periods after 2030”, the court ruled, partially upholding a series of claims by environmentalists and young people.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/historic-legal-blow-for-merkels-climate-plan-amid-green-surge/
lizzie:
He’s only against an “identity” that is not ‘on his side’ , he quite happily ‘identifies’ as a god botherer in ‘politics’ 🙂
My tonsorial options are rather limited: I can go for the John Howard look, skinhead, or let my hair grow and look like a mad scientist in a bad horror movie. As for “designer stubble”, that doesn’t work. If I don’t shave I look like I slept in the park.
Cat, I don’t remember the exact circumstances of his preselection, but I think it was a different one than that one which gave us Katy Gallagher. I was hoping he would be sucessfull, but was unsurprised that he was not, there is a strong “anti religion” thread running through the membership of the ACT ALP, and I think he ran afoul of that. Generally we have had an excellent rapport with ALP members in Canberra over the years but a slightly strained relationship with the NSW LNP.The former member Gai Brodtman was an excellent and indefatigable supporter and advocate for us and our clients, I was truely sad to see her stand down.
I don’t know how you can know that there isn’t a god. There might be a good case to claim that there isn’t a god of the interventional Abrahamic kind, but that leaves plenty of other options.
I am confused by the term “identity politics”, which Morrison seems to be against.
_____
Morrison has no trouble identifying with his Pentecostal church and its values and using them though.
Isn’t being an overt Pentecostalist Christian, an ‘identity’?
”Fast (250km/h) and “faster rail” (less than 200km/h) would be constructed between Sydney and Newcastle, the Central Coast, Goulburn and Nowra under a plan the NSW government is considering, Ms Berejiklian said.”
Yeah right, I’ll believe that when I see it.
“Asset recycling” rears its ugly head again.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-signals-renewed-focus-on-privatisation-will-go-it-alone-on-fast-rail-20210429-p57nl4.html
Amy 🙂
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
Politician who has made a career out of identity politics now decries identity politics as a form of identity politics
Bucephalus says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 9:28 am
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 8:45 am
You want my religious CV?
Atheist
Started as a child in Methodist Church every Sunday. Methodists became Uniting Church. UC started left wing political preaching so parents moved us to Anglican where I was confirmed and an altar server.
In other words, you’re reactionary by birth. It is apparently not possible for you to question your subscriptions…or, rather, the subscriptions of your parents. Stubborn thing, the conservative mind.
As a self-described atheist, you’d nevertheless apparently rather fake the ethos of the adherents/school. There must be social or psychological reasons for this. You’ve accepted the invitation to hypocrisy. This is a kind of social conformism, which is something nearly all of us practice whether we want to or not. It’s involuntary. It is a manifestation of the desire for inclusion.
The desire for/need for acceptance/conformity is unspoken and yet is pervasive. Religious participation is an example of this need. It is affiliation with/to a form of authority….to propriety perhaps, or, just as innately, an appeal for parental approval. Perhaps religious attachment is really more like wearing a particular jacket or shirt or kind of frock. ..a way of describing the self to the world. A way of saying “I do belong.” This is another way of saying “Trust me.” This is important. In the absence of trust, happiness is not possible. So these things are all conflated….trust, happiness, belonging, propriety, acceptance, inclusion and approval. So strange then that such depravities are carried out in the name of orthodoxy.
You describe yourself as an atheist.
I am an apostate.
I don’t know how you can know that there isn’t a god.
_____
Atheists have to prove nothing.
German Greens’ election hopeful targeted by fake news
With Germany’s Green party leading the polls ahead of September’s general elections, the ecologists’ would-be successor to Angela Merkel has become increasingly targeted by internet trolls and fake news in recent weeks.
From wild claims about CO2-emitting cats and dogs to George Soros photo collages, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock has been the subject of a dizzying array of fake news, conspiracy theories and online attacks since she was announced as the Greens’ chancellor candidate in mid-April.
The latest polls have the Greens either ahead of or level with Merkel’s ruling conservatives, as the once fringe party further establishes itself as a leading electoral force in Europe’s biggest economy.
Baerbock herself also consistently polls higher than her conservative and centre-left rivals in the race to succeed Merkel, who will leave office after 16 years this autumn.
Yet her popularity has also brought about unwanted attention and a glut of fake news stories aimed at discrediting Baerbock as she bids to become Germany’s first Green chancellor.
https://www.wionews.com/world/german-greens-election-hopeful-targeted-by-fake-news-381474
If journalists are going to start writing about Greens being the targets of fake news, they should spend a day observing PB as part of their research. It never ends!
Cut Snake
Thanks for your good inside view post.
Yul Brynner is my role model.
Maybe there is a god?
Jamie McKinnell
@jamie86
#BREAKING Clive Palmer has lost a copyright case over his political rendition of Twisted Sister’s metal track We’re Not Gonna Take It, which he used in advertising in 2019. @abcnews @abcsydney
🙂
Thanks Boer. Dont usually post, but bored this morning.
Cut Snake,
I think this underlines that there is just as much political diversity within the Catholic church as there is outside it. A point often missed by the chatterers and Twitterati.
Disclaimer: I’m a committed atheist.
Steve777 @ #124 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 10:06 am
Last night, Cud Chewer, our resident HSR expert, said it was a load of baloney unless Gladys commits serious money to the project. Unable to be obtained by asset recycling I hazard a guest.
‘Quoll says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:01 am
…..
If any group of people ever had the remarkable self-insight and understanding of events and other humans that some bludgers appear to claim regularly, then they might be the most honest, straightforward, effective and influential people ever to exist. As events and recent history would clearly reveal.’
There are some wonderful personal insights on show in Bludger today.
Mirror mirror on the wall?
So, Cut Snake, have you had much interaction with Gai Brodtman’s husband, Chris? 🙂
I believe in the cosmos. That is, I believe in something more than myself. I admit I have very little self-understanding and obviously have even less knowledge of the cosmos. This is enough of a mystery for me. I do not need to turn my ignorance into a doctrine.
Palmer has been ordered to pay $1.5 million in damages to Twisted Sisters for breach of copyright.
Wheeeeee!!!!
N @ #139 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 10:15 am
Ooh, I like that. Mind if I steal it?
Palmer: “Do you know who I am?”
Judge: “Yes. That will be $1,5m please”.
Update on the Huon Valley resident whose Greens corflutes were vandalised.
Over the past week his posters were knocked down, stomped on, torn in half a total of four times. The property owner repaired them and put them back up on their steel post supports. Most recently yesterday morning.
Overnight, instead of knocking them down the democracy heroes responsible spay painted large swastikas all over them.
The owner is down there trying to scrub them clean.
Now that’s persistence.
The feeling in my waters is that the Liberals won’t get back that easily tomorrow. I’m even leaning towards a boil over. Unlikely, but, the waters….
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fastest-change-in-the-world-coal-s-demise-sparks-call-for-energy-market-reforms-20210429-p57nhc.html
Whenever I read self-serving tripe like this, I reach for a bucket …
The only things Australia is “best in the world” at these days is exporting C02.
Spray. Yes I believe so. But I am aware that my samples are small if a little diverse.
My experience is that Catholics who attend church more than a couple of Sundays per annum generally conform to the general population except that few of them would be on the extreme left socially but many more would be very left economically. It is my experience that Refugees and their mistreatment is a huge concience dilemna for many “old Aussie” Catholics but a bit less so among “new Aussie cohorts.
To me and many of my co Vinnies volunteers Refugee treatment is the almost sole current determinent of my voting intention.
There is one thing in the China-microchips discussion yesterday that was forgotten. Both sides have a gun to the other’s head. One can make the chips the other supplies vital raw materials. The race would be on for both sides to change that.
.
“Politician who has made a career out of identity politics now decries identity politics as a form of identity politics”
As do all those who use the term “identity politics” as a political weapon.
These are the same people who at every other opportunity never tire of boasting about how “their” great free and democratic society is built upon European, white, christian values and how proud they are of “their” heritage that built it.
Itzadream @10:04.
”I don’t know how you can know that there isn’t a god. There might be a good case to claim that there isn’t a god of the interventional Abrahamic kind, but that leaves plenty of other options.”
It’s a matter of evidence and what evidence one would accept. You can’t prove the non-existence of God, in fact it’s difficult “prove” the non-existence of anything. I believe that black holes and electrons exist, that Julius Caesar and Henry VIII existed. However, the God that I was taught about in my youth, like UFOs and astrology, seems implausible. Others look at the world and conclude differently.
ItzaDream says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:04 am
“I don’t know how you can know that there isn’t a god. There might be a good case to claim that there isn’t a god of the interventional Abrahamic kind, but that leaves plenty of other options.”
I’ve seen no actual evidence of a God – interventionist or otherwise. Much of religion is an attempt to explain things that we don’t understand- including human decision making – but as our understanding of science and humans improves much of religion becomes irrelevant. That’s my position that I reached many decades ago after being deeply immersed in the Christian faith and studying other religions.
Much of most major religions is good and therefore I’m not an anti-religion type Atheist.
It’s much like the ALP v LNP – both are basically trying to achieve the same outcomes but by slightly different paths. Therefore I respect the ALP and their achievements but prefer the LNP. The Greens however are anti-human progress socialist-communist watermelons who should be put last every time.
There are a number of terms like “identity politics” and “woke” that seem to have been coined by the RW as terms of derision aimed at those who hold different viewpoints. They were certainly mentioned a lot by members of the Trump administration when referring to their political opponents.
However I still have little idea what they are supposed to mean apart from being some form of insult. I suspect that the vast majority of Australian voters also have little to no idea.
This is where Morrison runs a big risk of talking about things that people regard as irrelevant to their everyday lives. Certainly I suspect the LNP MPs would have a hard time promoting his views to their constituents (that is even if they understood what he was saying).