Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll finds Scott Morrison’s commanding personal ratings improving still further, without doing anything to improve a seemingly precarious position on voting intention.

As brought to you by The Australian, Newspoll maintains its sedentary ways in its latest poll, which repeats the previous result three weeks ago in recording a dead head on two-party preferred. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, while the Coalition on 42%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 3% are all unchanged. Despite a seemingly difficult week for Scott Morrison, he gains one on approval to 64% and drops one on disapproval to 32% and widens his lead as preferred prime minister from 57-29 to 61-26, as Anthony Albanese drops three on approval to 38% and rises two on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504.

There was also a poll on Friday from Roy Morgan, which sometimes publishes its regular federal voting intention polling and sometimes doesn’t. In this case Labor was credited with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 34.5%, the Greens 13% and One Nation 3.5%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends online and by phone from a sample of 2824.

Between Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential Research, there are now three pollsters who rate the situation as steady of with Labor fractionally ahead. This is reflected in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, now updated with the above results on both the voting intention and leadership rating trends, which has Labor edging ahead to a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,113 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. davidwh

    I’m judging him entirely on character but I find it hard not to notice if a public figure puts on a bit of weight and his clothes don’t fit. If that’s the image he chooses it’s up to him.

  2. Meanwhile in Texas, Biden is visiting after the snowstorm/electricity failure – and with an eye to the electoral map. This comparison between 2016 (R +9) and 2020 (R +5.6) – shows just where some elbow grease is required.

    If Texas turns blue, not even gilded statues of Dotard in boxer shorts will save the Republican Party

  3. Arthur

    I feel that there will no penalty if the PM refuses to move and the minister admits nothing. I am reminded of several other examples including Chrissie Pyne.

  4. Arthur @ #4230 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 10:28 pm

    I will be blunt.

    Blind Freddie could figure out which Liberal Minister is responsible for raping and sodomising that deceased woman when she was a 16 year old girl.
    The irony of that person’s current position in the government would be almost amusing if it were not so utterly vile, abhorent and sickening.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian_Search_Results?page=1&q=&sta=NSW&mem=1&sen=1&par=-1&gen=0&ps=12&st=1

    That’s odd. The most likely candidate is missing from that listing.

  5. ”…if a public figure puts on a bit of weight and his clothes don’t fit. If that’s the image he chooses it’s up to him.”

    If you put on weight you can’t buy a suit that fits unless you see a tailor. You do not fit whatever standard templates are used by clothing manufacturers.

  6. Just like old (pre-Covid) times. Some neighbours are having a noisy party. Something I’ve missed (not) in the last 12 months. Still, good to see normality slowly coming back. Not so good is that includes the Morrison Government returning to form.

  7. Cryptic comment from old time News Ltd hack, Tony Koch:

    Tony Koch
    @TonyKoc69285191
    ·
    1h
    I had a lot to do with old Bjelke-Petersen minister Chas Porter, a pompous dill. Of course Chilla Porter was an Olympic high jumper. Seems the Porter family are back in the news – with more to come I understand. #auspol

  8. Cud
    From that article “and may lead to the perverse outcome of protecting big media, rather than leaving it open to more competition.”.

    Privileging big/old media was always the intended outcome, though?

  9. Picking on him because he’s fat is no different than singling out and deriding people for being black, gay, Asian etc.

    It’s my understanding that being black, being gay, being Asian, and being “etc.” are things that are out of the individual’s control.

    Being fat is, however, usually up to the individual, except in obvious cases like glandular disease. Being a fat slob, as Morrison is, is entirely his choice. It is just another eloquently physical way that his poor character manifests itself. Don’t mix up discretionary physical characteristics with inherited ones. I’m not.

    I reject the blanket concept that criticising a person for the way they look, especially when they have quite obviously chosen to look that way, indeed to make a point of advertising their looks by having a professional photographer from a major media organization to record them in all their “glory”, must always be unfair. The sanctimonious among us may be blind to another person’s discretionary – I emphasize discretionary – physical characteristics, but few of us are that perfect. The way someone chooses to present themself is often a window to their soul.

  10. Privileging big/old media was always the intended outcome, though?

    Of course it was. That’s why the old media lobbied for it and why the Federal Government was all to happy to help.

  11. Bushfire Billsays:
    Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 11:10 pm

    Pitty some don’t remind Beowar, etc.

    “It’s my understanding that being black, being gay, being Asian, and being “etc.” are things that are out of the individual’s control.”

  12. rhwombatsays:
    Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 10:46 pm

    “That’s odd. The most likely candidate is missing from that listing.”

    …………….

    Penny Wong first became aware of the allegation in NOVEMBER 2019.
    Senator Wong explained the letter was not the first she had heard of the situation.

    (From the ABC)
    Wong:
    “I first became aware of the complainant’s allegation when I ran into her in Adelaide in November 2019. The complainant reminded me we had met once before,” she said in a statement.
    I facilitated her referral to rape support services and confirmed she was being supported in reporting the matter to NSW Police.”

    Something very intriguing happened in December 2019.

    Hope that helps narrow it down for you.

  13. Lizziesays:
    Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 10:37 pm

    Arthur

    …”I feel that there will no penalty if the PM refuses to move and the minister admits nothing. I am reminded of several other examples including Chrissie Pyne”…

    ………

    Lizzie,

    Sarah Hanson-Young and Penny Wong both know the name of this alleged child molester/rapist.
    He could be named under privilege if Morrison refuses to act and given the current circumstances, I doubt the media will let him get away with pretending there is nothing going on.

  14. ”The Greens and Labor were eager to jump on board. Useful fools?”

    Labor needs to choose its battles. It appears that this was one they didn’t want to fight. Bottled out perhaps?

    As for the Greens, they can say what Labor can’t. Their decision is incomprehensible to me.

  15. Bushfire Bill
    Sure people may be overweight through their own lifestyle choices, or factors out of their control.
    That doesn’t give you or any others, reason or excuse to put shit on them!
    Okay!
    Wake up to yourself!
    By the way, I don’t have a weight issues, but I’ll stick up for those that may have and have to put up with shit from people like you.
    You are so perfect aren’t you?

  16. When the 4 corners story came out many months ago, did the ABC know more. Basically have they had an agenda. Is it crime to cover up an accused criminal act for month after month and release it when it suits their political agenda.

  17. davesays:
    Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 11:34 pm

    “Nope you haven’t conveyed anything.”

    ……….

    I couldn’t possibly speculate further.
    Work it out for yourself.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #2907 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 1:54 pm

    Replying to
    @RonniSalt
    For those playing along at home; after a very stressful week he wore a pair of white flippers and frolicked in the water.

    *struggles to maintain a straight face while typing*

    No mention of the stressful weeks and years the rape victims have endured, but hey – what a guy.

    She probably said, “Imagine if they were Albo’s parents?”

  19. Sorry GG,

    My post was in reply to this one from lizzie.

    lizzie (Block)
    Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 1:53 pm
    Comment #2906
    “ I’ll be taking the weekend to read through the recommendations of the Aged Care Royal Commission.”

    But then I spoke to Jen, and she had a better recommendation

  20. No mention of the stressful weeks and years the rape victims have endured, but hey – what a guy.

    Nor the cowardly viper in a senior position in HIS Government who he is protecting and using the power of government and every weasel trick known to man to prevent scrutiny.

    Wadda an arsehole.

  21. Arthur says Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 10:28 pm

    I will be blunt.

    Blind Freddie could figure out which Liberal Minister is responsible for raping and sodomising that deceased woman when she was a 16 year old girl.
    The irony of that person’s current position in the government would be almost amusing if it were not so utterly vile, abhorent and sickening.

    I have seen it reported on Twitter that the allegation is against a man who is not from NSW.

    There are plenty of clues on Twitter pointing to a particular Cabinet Minister. I have no idea how accurate those clues are, if that Minister is the alleged rapist, or even if the attack occurred. I certainly won’t be repeating or linking to any clues as I quite like my house.

    Given how long ago this happened, the death last year of the alleged victim, and probable lack of any circumstantial evidence, I can’t see this progressing any further, at least within the justice system. The only exception might be if other women were to come forward to make an allegation.

    I would also add that an allegation is not proof or sufficient for conviction. Just because the individual might be a member of a government many of us here do not like, and just because the alleged crime is truly despicable, it does not automatically follow that he is guilty.

  22. I hope this gets through, and peels off a few % from the Old Liberals…

    I assume the “The New Liberals” logo is their expected polling results?

  23. Been There,

    I appreciate your passion, but you’ve got me on a bum rap.

    At the outset I said I was no oil painting myself. I am certainly not claiming physical perfection. I’m also not see,into put myself into the media as a model father.

    I’m probably 12 kilos more than I was 2 years ago, and than I’d like to be. I was fairly normal – perhaps a bit too chunky, but a pass – until I quit smoking and my waistline went to hell. That extra weight is completely discretionary: maybe not so much in putting it on, because that took me by surprise. But in not then taking it off, I plead guilty. And if anyone said I was a slob, I’d readily agree with them. Please get off your high horse about it. You’ve been reading too many Guardian articles.

    ScoMo chose to present an image of himself having a fun day in the surf, like thousands of other Aussies. But what I saw was a slob in bathers one size too small for him. He sent one message. I got another. It’s his problem, not mine.

    It was a failure of marketing on his part, just as if he was selling cars and you could see finger marks on the Duco, or selling hamburbers and the lettuce is limp in the pack shot. It’s pretty basic stuff: if you’re running an expensive campaign for an important product, don’t squib on the details. If you’re selling a Prime Minister as a wholesome outdoors Dad, make sure he doesn’t look like a tub of lard with a 15 kilo overhang and man boobs.

    Get a shot of him at the bowling alley, or playing golf, lifting weights, or doing a morning power walk. If that can’t be arranged, try selling another strategy, like “policy”, rather than “Outdoors Dad” bullshit.

    ScoMo went to that beach looking deliberately slobby because he thinks he’s bullet proof, that the public will put up with anything. But he should have remembered why he picked Lara Bingle in a G-string for his tourism ads, and not Aunty Ethel in a moo-moo: keep it simple. Don’t distract your audience with unnecessary messages, or alternative interpretations of them. That photo was only posted here in the first place because it was so gross.

  24. Very good summary bc. It is an impossible situation with the only outcome possible, unless other alleged victims speak out, is a political outcome.

    I’m not sure what people here expect Morrison to do? A federal parliament inquiry into a state issue, when the only witness has sadly passed away , is unlikely to prove anything. That assumes there are no other witnesses who could provide non-hearsay evidence.

    It just seems to be too little too late to achieve anything.

  25. C@t @11:10

    The logic in that article is mostly correct but with a few asterisks attached.

    One thing the article points out is that the rate at which new variants show up is a function of the overall rate of infection globally. Keep that rate low and then variants show up less quickly and then its possible to get on top of the virus. So yes, if its all you’ve got, take it.

    One asterisk is that under some conditions a poor vaccine may actually act selectively for a mutant strain. Until AZ updates for the south African strain and our locally manufactured AZ is updated (and isn’t old stock) that’s a problem.

    Another asterisk is that to keep on top of mutant strains you basically need everyone to update their vaccination as quickly as possible and possibly keep doing this for years. Ideally this will happen. But in the real world, you can expect that the rate of re-vaccination will fall over time. So getting the first vaccination to be as effective as possible is a good thing. And yeah I know, horse bolted. But its pretty clear that Australia could have had more of the Pfizer vaccine and it could have had it sooner (see Israel).

    What now? For me personally its about knowing how soon I can get a better/updated vaccine. Later this year? Early next year? I don’t know. For the country as a whole, we need to fund CSL to have the capability of making other types of vaccines and we need to start doing it right now. Especially Novavax which is easy to update.

    Its worth pointing out that there are some places where reducing transmission is just as important if not more important that preventing people getting sick. Notably border workers. But this also applies to age care staff. And guess what? Age care staff are going to get AZ. At least that’s what I saw in the news a couple of days ago.

    Btw my mum who is 80+ is pretty anxious about when. She should be high on the list, but the information flow is abysmal. Our chemist/GP have both told us they’re not being kept in the loop. Its also clear that regional areas aren’t being treated as well as Sydney.

  26. davidwh,
    I’m pretty comfortable with there being a political outcome to this.
    If they cops were willing to open an investigation, and the departed was at a time willing to have a lawyer represent her, and also that the lawyer was willing to take on the client. then that all adds weight to the allegation. Not enough for a conviction, but to end someones time as a cabinet minister surely.

    BB,
    Gotta agree on Scomo, everything about his physic screams indulgence and ill discipline. I can handle someone being a fat slob if they can explain it away with being a policy wonk who’s reading 18 hours a day. But Scotty doesn’t seem like the bookish type.

  27. Bushfire Bill:

    Being fat is, however, usually up to the individual

    How do you know this? On what peer-reviewed research do you base this opinion?

    If it was easily within everyone’s control to be slim, everyone would be. There’s a heavy price to pay for being fat in our culture; few people would choose it.

    Even if, for argument’s sake, someone’s weight is entirely within their control, and they’re fat anyway – so what? How does it affect you in any way?

    I find Scott Morrison a despicable man because of his character. Whether he looks like a ‘fat slob’ or an elite athlete is of no relevance to forming that opinion.

    I’m probably 12 kilos more than I was 2 years ago

    Ah, so as usual, you’re projecting.

  28. Cud Chewer @ #3089 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 9:43 pm

    C@t @11:10

    The logic in that article is mostly correct but with a few asterisks attached.

    One thing the article points out is that the rate at which new variants show up is a function of the overall rate of infection globally. Keep that rate low and then variants show up less quickly and then its possible to get on top of the virus. So yes, if its all you’ve got, take it.

    Which highlights the importance of getting the vaccines into poorer countries with high infections as these will be where new variants are most likely to develop if the virus is able spread unhindered.

  29. Mr Newbie,

    Being fat is not always up to the individual. Neither is being slim. I used the word “usually”, not “always”.

    Please don’t go down the “peer-reviewed research” rabbit hole. To mix metaphors, it’s a red herring. The simple equation is: “Eat too much fatty food = put on weight.” Of course there are exceptions, but that’s the general rule, and so unremarkable I wonder whether you’re serious in questioning it.

    If you haven’t twigged to the obvious fact that if you stuff cream buns, chocolate sundaes, rich curries with lashings of rice, ice cream, candy bars, pizzas and carrot cake (or any combination of the preceding, plus a lot more options) down your gob too regularly you’re almost certain to put on weight, then you’ve not been paying attention.

    For most, this will make them fat, peer-reviewed paper or not. Equally for most, dieting relative to previous consumption, plus exercise will take that weight off again. I repeat, this is the general rule, not a universal law of nature. There will always be fast and slow metabolism, glandular imbalances and sheer malfunctions of the digestive system as exceptions. But in a general sense, arguing to the contrary that eating fat and sugars to excess puts on weight is sheer bloody-mindedness on your part. Try and impress someone else with that line of thinking.

    Morrison is a slob. It goes straight to his character. Face up to it. Today’s photos were an awful look.

    My admission that I am around 12 kilos heavier than I’d like to be isn’t anything as high falutin’ as “projection”. It’s a simple fact that doesn’t need pseudo-psychological mumbo-jumbo on your part. It was presented as proof that I am not claiming any sort of slimwize sainthood in this discussion. Then again, I’m also not claiming to be Father Of The Nation, complete with personal photographer.

  30. Mr. Newbie says:
    Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 1:43 am

    For those of us who struggle with their weight it doesn’t change the fact it is in our control and their are significant negative outcomes from it.

  31. Bushfire Bill:

    slimwize sainthood

    Morrison is a slob. It goes straight to his character.

    There we have it. What the ‘arguments’ around weight of your ilk always boil down to – moralising.

    “Fat people are fat because they gorge on cream buns.” I can see you’ve looked into this in depth, and haven’t… oh, I don’t know, based your opinion entirely on the kind of material that regularly fills columns in magazines targeted at women.

    If dieting is as successful as you claim, then why do the majority of people who go on a diet regain all of the weight – and often more – within 5 years? I guess because they’re fat slobs with no self control, eh?

    Face up to it. Today’s photos were an awful look.

    Some people find fatness attractive. I guess they’re freaks in your narrow worldview?

  32. Lizzie:

    Scott Morrison is a bully and a slob.

    A bully, yes. A slob? I assume you’re referring to his weight. And that is relevant because? He is lazy and work-shy in his role as Prime Minister, but so were Abbott and Turnbull, and they were lean. Scott Morrison being a ‘slob’ is more about your anti-fat prejudice than being a valid criticism of him as a politician.

    Your ‘I Quit Sugar’ diet is obviously making you such… a joy.

  33. south:

    Hardly body shaming to comment on someones obesity.

    What is it then?

    How is pointing out someone has gained weight a good thing for them exactly? You might shame them into losing some kilos? Because that works so well…

    Body-shaming harms people of all sizes, and leads to eating disorders.

    I am surprised at the naiveté here around this, especially coming from a group of otherwise seemingly intelligent people.

  34. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/27/asian-hate-crimes-attacks-fueled-covid-19-racism-threaten-asians/4566376001/

    Asian Americans across the United States are reporting a significant increase in hate crimes, harassment and discrimination tied to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than a year after these attacks began, the pandemic has galvanized Asian Americans, many of whom have long felt invisible, to speak out about the hatred and racism being directed their way.

    Community leaders are calling for greater enforcement of existing hate-crime laws, better connections with local police departments charged with investigating hateful incidents, and other Americans to consider the impact of their words and actions on the country’s estimated 21 million Asian Americans. Asian American entertainers are using their platforms to highlight the issues, Asian American journalists are sharing their own stories of discrimination on social media and a growing chorus of federal lawmakers are demanding action.

    The pandemic has especially “struck a nerve” for the Asian American community, which has forced many to realize that simple discrimination can turn violent, said Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu of California, who is a member of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus. The fight against the “bamboo ceiling” is now also about physical safety, he said.

    “For a large number of Asian Americans, especially the young generation, they’re now seeing for the first time actual violence directed at them or their grandparents,” Lieu said. “It’s highly disturbing.”

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