Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll finds Scott Morrison’s commanding personal ratings improving still further, without doing anything to improve a seemingly precarious position on voting intention.

As brought to you by The Australian, Newspoll maintains its sedentary ways in its latest poll, which repeats the previous result three weeks ago in recording a dead head on two-party preferred. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, while the Coalition on 42%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 3% are all unchanged. Despite a seemingly difficult week for Scott Morrison, he gains one on approval to 64% and drops one on disapproval to 32% and widens his lead as preferred prime minister from 57-29 to 61-26, as Anthony Albanese drops three on approval to 38% and rises two on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504.

There was also a poll on Friday from Roy Morgan, which sometimes publishes its regular federal voting intention polling and sometimes doesn’t. In this case Labor was credited with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 34.5%, the Greens 13% and One Nation 3.5%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends online and by phone from a sample of 2824.

Between Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential Research, there are now three pollsters who rate the situation as steady of with Labor fractionally ahead. This is reflected in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, now updated with the above results on both the voting intention and leadership rating trends, which has Labor edging ahead to a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,113 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 22, 2021 at 6:39 am
    Scott,
    Labor have to learn how not to lose vote share during an election campaign. And maybe even improve on it a bit. THEN they will form government.

    ——————————————————-

    Agree with you,

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Simon Benson on the Newspoll results.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-scott-morrison-rides-high-on-rollout-as-anthony-albanese-takes-a-hit/news-story/d74b7401748fe37dde13f69f2702bb81
    The Australian Open trophy presentation at the men’s final was at times drowned out by constant crowd booing after mentions of the coronavirus vaccine rollout and the Victorian government. Idiots!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fans-boo-tennis-australia-chairperson-after-mentioning-of-vaccine-and-andrews-government-20210221-p574i2.html
    The first comprehensive study of Indigenous water rights in the Murray-Darling Basin shows a “shockingly low” level of ownership, a legacy of ongoing dispossession.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-was-our-economy-now-we-are-dirt-poor-first-nations-people-dispossessed-of-water-20210219-p5741i.html
    Sean Kelly writes that Morrison has skated over previous treatment of women issues but, with the Higgins issue, it’s now the time for him to use the power he has.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-knows-his-power-now-is-the-time-to-use-it-20210221-p574g8.html
    Daniel Hurst writes that Scott Morrison has indicated that he has reprimanded his staff for not bringing a former government staffer’s rape allegations to his attention as soon as a reporter submitted questions earlier this month. But did he probe them on WHY they didn’t?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/21/staff-rebuked-over-failure-to-advise-him-of-brittany-higgins-allegations-scott-morrison-says
    A strident Jacqui Maley is upset over what she describes as Morrison’s revealing over-familiarity with Ms Higgins.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/call-her-ms-higgins-the-pm-s-over-familiarity-is-revealing-20210219-p5743o.html
    But Amanda Vanstone hops in to defend Linda Reynolds’ “textbook” response to Brittany Higgins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/linda-reynolds-doesn-t-deserve-criticism-her-response-to-higgins-rape-claim-was-textbook-20210221-p574dd.html
    The editorial in the SMH calls for leaders to call out sexual harassment and listen to victims.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/time-for-leaders-to-call-out-sexual-harassment-and-listen-to-victims-20210218-p573mn.html
    Meanwhile, The Australian’s Michael McKenna reveals that a third woman alleges she was sexually assaulted almost five years ago by the same former Morrison government adviser accused of the 2019 rape of a female colleague in Parliament House.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/brittany-higgins-to-make-formal-statement-to-police-over-alleged-rape/news-story/11ecbae5b81b87cf33244553e7167527
    Ross Gittins writes, “Philip Lowe lacks an appetite for moving to negative interest rates, if big central banks go further down that path, he’ll have little choice but to join them.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/here-s-the-unspeakable-truth-about-the-strange-behaviour-of-interest-rates-20210220-p5749r.html
    Paul Daley says that Anthony Albanese’s fine words in federal parliament about frontier wars are remarkable and laudatory, but they’d have been more so if spoken at the war memorial where it has long been largely deaf and blind to much Indigenous sensibility, and resistant to reform.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2021/feb/22/albaneses-remarkable-words-on-the-frontier-wars-should-have-been-said-at-the-war-memorial
    Well, well! A gold-plated National Broadband Network may have cost $10 billion less than previously estimated by the Coalition government, with secret figures from a review showing large savings expected from technological advancements for a full fibre rollout.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/secret-figures-show-full-fibre-nbn-may-have-cost-10-billion-less-than-claimed-20210221-p574gj.html
    The bonuses for NBN Co executives are attracting political heat, but the money that NBN is charging telcos is where the real battle is focused. Consumers should beware the results, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/telecommunications/executive-bonuses-aren-t-the-nbn-s-biggest-problem-20210219-p57484
    Sumeyya Ilanbey explains the logistical nightmare behind the biggest vaccination program in history, particularly as it applies to the Pfizer vaccine.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/overcoming-the-logistical-nightmare-behind-the-biggest-vaccination-program-in-history-20210221-p574fr.html
    The AFR’s editorial says Australia’s vaccine-led COVID comeback depends not only on countering anti-vaxxers but also on state governments accepting the science of contact tracing to manage hotspots.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/vaccine-comeback-calls-for-belief-in-contact-tracing-too-20210218-p573pi
    This doesn’t help. The TGA says a group of doctors is being investigated for promoting hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for the virus, against all scientific evidence.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/melbourne-doctors-under-review-for-promoting-discredited-covid-treatment
    Adele Ferguson explains Deb O’Neill’s private member’s bill that proposes to lift penalties for franchise sector transgressions and misbehaviour.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/private-bill-proposes-to-lift-penalties-for-franchise-sector-20210221-p574f3
    In an extraordinary move, SA’s ambulance union has penned an open letter demanding the State Government act urgently to end the staffing crisis.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-ambos-open-letter-we-are-at-breaking-point/news-story/9e41f4e6d57ed439f7e3d3e460844fb6
    Is Sky News shifting Australian politics to the right? Not yet, but there is cause for alarm, writes researcher Dennis Muller.
    https://theconversation.com/is-sky-news-shifting-australian-politics-to-the-right-not-yet-but-there-is-cause-for-alarm-155356
    Google good, Facebook bad. That sums up mainstream media coverage of the Coalition government’s bizarre new media code. That’s because Google paid up, Facebook decided it was extortion and called Josh Frydenberg’s bluff, banning Australian news. Kim Wingerei and Michael West report on the corruption of mainstream media.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/laughing-stock-australias-new-media-code-rivals-our-climate-policy-for-absurdity/
    According to Shane Wright, older Australians want the Morrison government to create special green infrastructure bonds so they can direct their growing concern about climate change into a financial investment.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/senior-australians-want-to-buy-green-bonds-to-help-address-climate-20210219-p5743x.html
    Rob Harris reports that Anthony Albanese will channel the Pope by telling Christian organisations he believes the values of Labor and the church overlap with their vision to rebuild Australia following the coronavirus pandemic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-courts-christian-groups-in-social-justice-pitch-20210221-p574e8.html
    And James Massola tells us that today Australia’s “fundamentally broken” aged care system – and its impact on grandparents, parents and children – will be highlighted in a new federal Labor campaign.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-launches-new-campaign-highlighting-aged-care-horror-stories-20210219-p573zm.html
    Jon Chesterton expound on what he describes as “the political sociopathology of Murdoch, Trump and Morrison – the victim triangle (oppressor and rescuer)”.
    https://theaimn.com/the-political-sociopathology-of-murdoch-trump-and-morrison-the-victim-triangle-oppressor-and-rescuer/
    By undermining humanities education, the Morrison Government is helping create a superficial society, which opens the door to far-Right extremism, writes Alex Hipgrave.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/neo-fascism-on-the-rise-as-critical-thinking-dissolves,14817
    There is no trial date in sight before 2022 for the cartel saga resuming today which involves criminal charges against three banks and six executives, writes Pamela Williams. This has been in train for eight years.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/justice-delayed-as-accc-case-drags-on-for-years-20210221-p574dt
    Zoe Samios writes that tech platforms such as Facebook, Google and Twitter could issue regular warnings to users about the trustworthiness of news articles and advertisements under a newly formed code designed to reduce the spread of misinformation and harmful content on the internet.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/political-ads-fake-news-targeted-in-newly-formed-misinformation-code-20210221-p574dq.html
    Samantha Dick reports that convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein had secret video tapes of former presidents Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, according to a new book.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2021/02/21/epstein-clinton-trump-secret-tapes/

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    David Rowe

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    Joe Benke

    Sean Leahy

    From the US



  3. A third woman has come forward to allege she was sexually assaulted by the same former Morrison government staffer accused of two other sexual assaults.
    The woman, who spoke anonymously to The Australian, was a Coalition volunteer during the 2016 election campaign, and alleges she was assaulted after a night out with the then political staffer.
    The allegations follow those from Saturday, when another woman alleged she had been sexually assaulted by the same former government staffer as Brittany Higgins — who last week alleged she was raped in the office of Defence Minister Linda Reynolds in March 2019.
    Higgins will make a statement to the Australian Federal Police on Wednesday to reactivate the investigation into the incident.
    Four separate reviews of Parliament’s toxic workplace culture have commenced since Higgins’ story was published.

  4. This Liberal Party staffer appears to be a serial predator – perhaps an escorted trip from North Shore hospital to the mental unit at Long Bay is in order…

    ‘A third woman has claimed she was sexually assaulted by the same former Liberal staffer accused of the 2019 rape of Brittany Higgins in the ministerial wing of Parliament House.

    The fallout from the alleged rape of Ms Higgins in 2019 has dominated political discussion and parliamentary question time for a week since the news first broke on Monday, February 15.
    The new complainant, a Liberal Party volunteer who was barely out of school at the time, told The Australian that she was assaulted after a night drinking with the man.

    She said he offered to “look after her” at his hotel just around the corner, after buying her rounds of double strength vodkas and three tequila shots.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/brittany-higgins-third-woman-accuses-exliberal-staffer-of-sexual-assault/news-story/9500da426e155af91651c73545029201

  5. No law against booing in Victoria. If people want to boo they can boo.
    Good to see there are still some things Chairman Dan cannot control in this state.

  6. From that Michael West News article: so progressive publications Crickey, The New Daily, the Saturday Paper, the Conversation and the Guardian have all taken Google’s extortion pay off.

    Hopelessly and utterly compromised. Just look at Lenore Taylor’s sick making article over the weekend about ‘evil Facebook’. … sounding for all the world like a cussing highway robber about the stage coach that got away.

  7. Like others have said, this is a shockingly bad Newspoll for Labor and Albanese. Morrison should have plummeted in the preferred PM stakes after last week.

  8. We have now been told the “method” used by the alleged rapist. Not particularly inventive. Provide a rapid mixture of strong alcoholic drinks, then offer to “look after her”. So caring.

  9. So the third woman to come forward was assaulted three years prior to Ms Higgins, unlikely there isn’t more. No one in the LNP knew apparently.

  10. lizziesays:

    We have now been told the “method” used by the alleged rapist. Not particularly inventive. Provide a rapid mixture of strong alcoholic drinks, then offer to “look after her”. So caring.

    Isn’t that how they win elections???

  11. Morrison and co should be engaging with the federal opposition with respect to a bi partisan message regarding covid vaccination.
    Australia has generally been good in this space, but unfortunately the conspiracy crapola has infected us in a big way.

  12. Zerlo @ #11 Sunday, February 21st, 2021 – 11:29 pm

    People still stupid enough to vote for LNP? my god this country is dumb.

    FWIW around here

    IF you believe the available data from newspoll as WB has on this very site, then it is actually overwhelmingly the oldest of Australians who are keeping the LNP afloat.

    Over 65’s were last at 62-38 for Smoko and the LNP, 50-64’s were at 55-45. Probably overwhelmingly the very demographics that reads and posts most at PB.
    Also a contrast with those identifying as christians (59-41) or vice-verse for the non-religious (43-57)

    18-34’s are of course completely opposite at 39-61 against the LNP

    Right now age and identifying as a christian or not appear to be way more significant in who people are claiming they vote for than gender, education and income, but men are significantly more for Smoko too.

    So the oldest and most christian cohorts seem to be fine with keeping the LNP shit-show going, rorts or rapes, a climate crisis notwithstanding. Makes me wonder what would Jesus think?

    #Auspol, a land of arrogant self absorbed old men, with fixated and moribund approaches to the future of a rapidly changing world, ecologically, politically, economically?
    Seems like the system of political donations and post-political sinecures has become like a security blanket, that reinforces the duopoly idiocy that has marked ‘political debate’ in Australia recently, particularly on climate change. As long as Newscorpse approves of course.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2022/polldata.htm?

    As posted previously, a Tory boomer on the generational politics of contemporary society, probably mostly applicable to the Anglosphere.

    Have the Boomers Pinched Their Children’s Futures? – with Lord David Willetts
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A&ab_channel=TheRoyalInstitution

  13. Back when Abbott won I began a 6 month period of media lockdown starting on election night. To this day I haven’t seen Monkey’s victory speech.
    I figured what I don’t see or hear can’t hurt me.
    My mental health is important to me.
    I feel now it’s time for re-entry into media lockdown for a period which may need to extend from now to beyond the election which is surely coming later this year.
    PB will be my only source of political news for the duration.
    At least here we’ve always got Smirko on the run, we see through him like a window and sunny days are just round the corner.

  14. As others have pointed out, the “first vaccination” was carefully staged.

    Little old lady (sorry, Jane, I know it’s a cliché).
    Small and helpless beside big protective Scomo.
    Had to be a WW2 survivor (another Scomo theme).

    Then Morrison makes a joke out of her arthritic hands and moves inappropriately to clutch her.
    Pig!

  15. Texas power providers Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and Entergy Corporation have been hit with a $100 million lawsuit accusing them of gross negligence in the death of a child whose family suspects he suffered hypothermia when they lost electricity and heat in their mobile home during a historic cold snap.

    The mother of 11-year-old Cristian Pineda filed the wrongful death lawsuit in Jefferson County District Court, alleging the utility giants “put profits over the welfare of people” by ignoring previous recommendations to winterize its power grid, which sustained an epic failure last week and left more than 4 million customers without heat and electricity as temperatures in some parts of the state plunged to single digits.

  16. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    9h
    Word still not getting out that #Newspoll is now 100% online and does not dial landlines.

    Nov 1985 – June 2015: Landlines, live call

    July 2015- Nov 2019: Mixed online panel/landline robocall

    Nov 2019 – present: 100% online panel

    So who are the landline-only voters who are unrepresented?

  17. “Biden is a winner, Nobel peace prize foxy ?”

    Now you have me confused, I thought we were talking about Australian politics. Are you suggesting that the ALP draft Joe Biden or something? Hey, they could do worse, at least he gets you lot excited.

    I hadn’t heard that, so I just Googled “Joe Biden Nobel Peace Prize” to catch up. Scrolling through the results, I was shocked to learn from one of the articles that Joe Biden had suggested that George W Bush be given the Nobel Peace Prize for invading Iraq. Was this what you were referring to? A peace prize for starting a war? Biden putting Bush forward for a medal? That can’t be right, surely? Not our Joe! I refuse to believe that. Must be #FakeNews

  18. Had a real laugh out loud moment on the way to work this morning, with Simon Birmingham solemnly saying that facebook was Teh Bad for trying to influence government policy.

    When everyone knows the government policy has come about because of the influence of Murdoch et al.

  19. Getting a little sick of Firefox’s numerous sock puppets. William continues to ban him but he still pops up with a new screen name.

    But really, what does it say about someone that they continue to persist hanging in a place they clearly aren’t wanted?

  20. So I decided to follow Firefox’s latest sock puppet’s red strings to see what he is talking about. Initially, I Googled “Joe Biden Nobel Peace Prize” as he did and only saw links to articles about Biden being nominated for the prize. Not really that surprising, lots of people get nominated. It’s a very open process that then has a system to weed out the ridiculous ones.

    Anyway, I refined my search to specifically being about Joe Biden nominating George W Bush and I found this story, which, as I am not a dishonest little weirdo who can’t take a hint every time my sockpuppets get banned, I will actually the link to:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/joe-biden-george-bush-nobel-prize-iraq_n_5e1ddca5c5b650c621e60f4e?ri18n=true

    What the story is basically saying is that Ari Fleischer had recalled a conversation with a Democratic Senator (revealed to be Biden) in the early days of the Iraq War, when Biden jokingly suggested Bush would get the prize if he can wrap up the war quickly. The article itself even states that it was obviously in jest.

    While Biden’s early support for the Iraq War is a black mark against his name and I am not going to defend that, this has been dishonestly misrepresented and overblown. Like every other one of Firefox’s deranged episodes.

  21. Thanks for the roundup BK. On the tennis:

    “The Australian Open trophy presentation at the men’s final was at times drowned out by constant crowd booing after mentions of the coronavirus vaccine rollout and the Victorian government. Idiots!”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fans-boo-tennis-australia-chairperson-after-mentioning-of-vaccine-and-andrews-government-20210221-p574i2.html

    I think simply calling the crowd “idiots” is being too kind. The crowd at a tennis final is probably wealthy and well connected, because only they can afford the tickets. Opposing vaccination at this stage is not so much ignorance as an indicator of somebody who is extremely selfish, arrogant and cares nothing about the welfare of the rest of the community. I think I can predict which party most would vote for.

  22. I did the same google AM did. After 6 pages of “Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize” and not a mention of GWB, I gave up.

    I’m not as persistent as AM is, obviously — or as obsessive.

  23. Birmingham. Sigh. I wonder what Wong would have to say were she alongside him during that interview.
    Form the ABC website;
    “But he said there was a tension in balancing the privacy of a victim with the responsibility to prevent it happening again, while also providing appropriate support.”

    So nothing to see here. Just an impossible quandary of balancing. A woman has allegedly been raped in a ministers office and Birmingham is worried about her privacy. It is oh so convenient that her privacy accords with keeping a politically damaging allegation hidden. And the issue of why a Liberal staffer would feel the need to not go to the police? Nadda. What sort of show are they running?

    The LNP. The kings of coverup.

  24. poroti:

    OMG that is positively pukeworthy!

    Though kudos to whichever Bludger it was the other day who said he’d be vaccinated wearing his Aust flag mask.

  25. And I disagree with the acceptance of AstraZenica “because at least you won’t die.” At my age, I don’t need to add any more suffering to my life.

  26. That DT front page makes me want to puke. Also, while I am not a fan of the Royal Family, that headline about “Tears and Tantrums” with a byline about Charles crying over his father is really, really gross. His father is dying and he’s naturally upset about it and they’re wording it like he’s being some whiny drama queen.

  27. KayJay

    Thank you for trying. My eyes filled with tears at the sight of innocent animals. Shows how vulnerable I am after the Scotty weekend overload. And we’re now going to get at least another day of prancing politicians.

  28. Bruce Guthrie
    @brucerguthrie
    ·
    2m
    Based on last night’s experience, it will be a long while before I go to an #AusOpen final again. Large chunks of the crowd were boorish #COVIDIOTS the pre-show was amateurish and don’t get me started on the deejay. I was glad it was over in three sets, even if my wallet wasn’t.

  29. Big U.S. companies slash donations to politicians after Trump election challenge

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Ten U.S. corporations slashed donations to candidates seeking federal office by more than 90% in January, after pledging to cut off giving to the Republicans who supported former President Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn his election defeat.

    None of the political action committees of 10 major companies reviewed by Reuters, including Microsoft Corp, Walmart Inc, AT&T Inc and Comcast Corp, donated to any of the 147 congressional Republicans who voted to support Trump’s claims just hours after his supporters launched a deadly assault on the U.S. Capitol.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-corporate/big-u-s-companies-slash-donations-to-politicians-after-trump-election-challenge-idUSKBN2AL013

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