Battle stations

A lift in the tempo of federal preselection activity finds one Liberal MP out the door and another likely to follow.

First up, note the new post below on the Western Australian state election campaign. To the matter at hand: as talk proliferates of a federal election later this year, there has been a noticeable uptick on the volume of preselection news to report.

• A Liberal preselection for the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies last weekend produced a boilover with the defeat of Kevin Andrews, who has held the seat since 1991. Andrews lost the local party ballot by a 181-111 margin to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Wolahan was reckoned to have enough support locally to have knocked over Andrews ahead of the 2019 election, but was thwarted when the state party organisation took charge of the entire federal election preselection process, much to the chagrin of the membership. Wolahan had support from factional moderates but took to Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News to push back against the notion that he personally could be so described, and put it to Virginia Trioli of the ABC that he “never joined the Liberal Party to be called a moderate and very few people do in Victoria”.

• It appears increasingly likely that controversial Liberal MP Craig Kelly will be bumped aside for preselection in his Sydney seat of Hughes by Kent Johns, who had the numbers locally in both 2016 and 2019 but was saved on both occasions by prime ministerial intervention. The Australian reported on Friday that Nationals MPs, apparently including Queensland Senator Matt Canavan, wished to recruit Kelly to the party, apparently with a view to him seeking re-election in his entirely suburban electorate. However, a Nationals source was quoted saying this “wouldn’t happen while Michael McCormack is leader”.

Nine News reports New South Wales Deputy Premier and state Nationals leader John Barilaro is considering a move to the Senate. The Coalition arrangement in New South Wales gives the Nationals second and third positions on the Senate ticket at alternating elections, with the next election being the party’s turn for the unloseable second spot. The party’s position is vacant because one of its two Senators elected at the 2016 double dissolution, Fiona Nash, lost her position amid the Section 44 fiasco in December 2017 and it was won on a countback by a Liberal, Jim Molan. Molan lost his seat after being reduced to fourth position at the 2019 election but returned to the Senate upon filling Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in November 2019. Since he is now 69, he is presumably set to retire. The Liberals’ first and third positions on the ticket will presumably remain with the incumbents, Marise Payne and Connie Fierravanti-Wells.

• With the retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon, Sky News reports his regional Northern Territory electorate of Lingiari is set to be contested for Labor by the former Deputy Chief Minister, Marion Scrymgour.

• The Northern Territory News reports the Country Liberal Party’s Senator for the Northern Territory, Sam McMahon, may face preselection challenges from Damien Ryan, the mayor of Alice Springs, and Linda Fazldeen, a Darwin businesswoman. The report says the preselection is likely to be held in June or July.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,041 comments on “Battle stations”

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  1. From the article in the link, some vaccines block infection (pertussis) and some transmission (rubella). Covid-19 vaccines are aimed at reducing severity and we know a little about how well they block infection. But we don’t know much about how well they block transmission. The best we have at the moment is the logic that reducing viral loads should reduce transmission.

    https://www.vox.com/22241572/covid-19-vaccine-mask-moderna-pfizer-johnson

    The point of the article, I think, is that the best use of the vaccines and the messaging that goes with them will be tricky.

  2. mb

    Sorry, all that post shows is that you know very little about that period in history.

    For example, Elizabeth of York and her mother came to Richard’s court after (supposedly) the murders had taken place.

    This would be strange behaviour if you knew your brothers had mysteriously vanished.

    No evidence, either, that Elizabeth had anything to do with Henry Tudor until after he had become king.

  3. Mexicanbeemer @ #2358 Saturday, February 13th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    laughtong
    We will never know but i think Richard iii was responsible for the boys being killed because that was how leaders cemented their position and i think it happened after Richard moved against the Woodvilles only to discover Edward’s disapproval.

    The murders were probably done by or under direction of Buckingham because not long after the boys disappeared the two men fell out so that tells me Buckingham wasn’t rewarded as he expected then there is the tale of Richard iii liking Elizabeth of York but where did that story come from. It sounds to me like Elizabeth lured Richard into thinking they could be in a relationship only for her to find out what happened to her bothers then she throw her lot in with Henry.

    Far from being interested in his niece, Elizabeth of York, Richard was arranging marriages for himself and Elizabeth in Portugal that would have re-united the true Lancastrian heirs there with the York heirs. Documentation for this exists.
    I agree Buckingham is most likely the guilty party in some form, but we will most likely never know the reality.

    The other issue to consider is the Henry VII was scared of the pretenders and this suggests he did not know what had happened. Elizabeth was never allowed to meet Perkin Warbeck, who she may well have recognised as the younger prince.

  4. Reflecting on AI technology, as far as I understand it anyway, what it does is hoover up data and develop matching responses. If the data are biased then so are the responses. I have a vague memory of a twitter AI that rapidly descended so far into racial and misogynistic abuse that it had to be “killed”. The point is that current level AI might be better at revealing our subjective world than at displaying objective reasoning.

  5. Just to return to the present day, for a moment, the Rachel crew of media hounds are trying to make something out if the fact that the head of Hotel Quarantine is not at the same presser as Dan and Brett, but will appear later in the day. This means that there is a COVER-UP, obviously. They’re like terriers at a mousehole.

  6. ‘Saint’ Tomas bloody More loved a good Protestant stake burning. Apparently he was a paragon of virtue or some such. A medieval Beria if you ask me. If his history was as impeccable as his morality then one should put his accounts of an earlier age into the dust bin.

  7. zoomster says:
    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 1:18 pm

    mb

    Sorry, all that post shows is that you know very little about that period in history.

    For example, Elizabeth of York and her mother came to Richard’s court after (supposedly) the murders had taken place.

    This would be strange behaviour if you knew your brothers had mysteriously vanished.

    No evidence, either, that Elizabeth had anything to do with Henry Tudor until after he had become king.

    ——————————————————
    Zoomster
    I think it might be you that doesn’t understand the period 😉

    My comment was in the period after Richard had become king so the boys had disappeared and there is a story that Richard had his eye on Elizabeth of York after the death of his wife Anne Neville and there are some stories suggesting Richard killed Anne in order to marry Elizabeth of York which is something the Ricardians reject.

    Elizabeth didn’t need to know Henry when she or Elizabeth Woodville would have known Margaret Beaufort.

  8. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china/china-will-eat-our-lunch-biden-warns-after-clashing-with-xi-on-most-fronts-idUSKBN2AB06A

    WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held their first phone call as leaders and appeared at odds on most issues, even as Xi warned that confrontation would be a “disaster” for both nations.

    Xi relises the confrontation – shirly beowar is not stupid enough to want a WW3 ?

  9. laughtong:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 12:28 pm

    [‘As a long term Richardian, if that so called historian relys on Moore…’]

    So, given you’ve admitted to being a “Richardian”, can you look at the matter objectively?

    A bit about the evidence:

    Thomas More’s credentials are impeccable. He was an
    eminent scholar, who lost his life to a principle. In his book the “History of King Richard III”, More claims that Richard commissioned Tyrell to do the dirty job. Tyrell then, as the story goes, sub-contracted the hits to Dighton (his horeskeeper) and very relevantly, Tower of London guard Forest.

    Forest had two sons who mixed with More in the Court of Henry VIII. More never revealed the source of who killed the princes, but Thorton deducted that it was one of
    Forest’s sons. If one joins the dots, the evidence may not be compelling but it is nonetheless persuasive.

    The difficulty of coming to any conclusions as to the identity of the person(s) who murdered of the princes is fraught by virtue of the passage of time and the fact that
    Richard had the power, as Lord Protector, to take every precaution to cover it up. And as I said to Zoomster, Richard had a very compelling motive.

    Anyway, you’d no doubt be pleased that Richard eventually received a descent sendoff, befitting his rank:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSwWgbPObB0

  10. The Age
    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has stood by his claim that a man broke rules governing quarantine when he used a nebuliser suspected of a role in the Holiday Inn coronavirus outbreak.

    At a press conference on Friday, the Premier was adamant the nebuliser was never declared by the returned traveller.
    ________________
    Will just put this one under the category of:
    “Well he would say that wouldn’t he”
    To back track on that claim would be a disaster for Andrews.

  11. Would all be a bed of roses if it was Gladys dealing with this other than Dan. The same tired old anti Labor sentiment by the Murdoch press scum of this country.

  12. Taylormade @ #2816 Saturday, February 13th, 2021 – 1:51 pm

    The Age
    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has stood by his claim that a man broke rules governing quarantine when he used a nebuliser suspected of a role in the Holiday Inn coronavirus outbreak.

    At a press conference on Friday, the Premier was adamant the nebuliser was never declared by the returned traveller.
    ________________
    Will just put this one under the category of:
    “Well he would say that wouldn’t he”
    To back track on that claim would be a disaster for Andrews.

    Shorter Taylormade from IPA.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1360421169678045188

  13. Mavis @ #2375 Saturday, February 13th, 2021 – 1:42 pm

    laughtong:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 12:28 pm

    [‘As a long term Richardian, if that so called historian relys on Moore…’]

    So, given you’ve admitted to being a “Richardian”, can you look at the matter objectively?

    A bit about the evidence:

    Thomas More’s credentials are impeccable. He was an
    eminent scholar, who lost his life to a principle. In his book the “History of King Richard III”, More claims that Richard commissioned Tyrell to do the dirty job. Tyrell then, as the story goes, sub-contracted the hits to Dighton (his horeskeeper) and very relevantly, Tower of London guard Forest.

    Forest had two sons who mixed with More in the Court of Henry VIII. More never revealed the source of who killed the princes, but Thorton deducted that it was one of
    Forest’s sons. If one joins the dots, the evidence may not be compelling but it is nonetheless persuasive.

    The difficulty of coming to any conclusions as to the identity of the person(s) who murdered of the princes is fraught by virtue of the passage of time and the fact that
    Richard had the power, as Lord Protector, to take every precaution to cover it up. And as I said to Zoomster, Richard’s had a very compelling motive.

    Anyway, you’d no doubt be pleased that Richard eventually received a descent sendoff, befitting his rank:

    Yes all Richardians were pleased with that sendoff.

    Have you read More in total? Did you see the bit about the Princes being buried under a stone staircase overnight? Yes some bones were found in that suggested place, but until modern testing is allowed on them they may well be animal or totally unrelated. The bones are now in Westminster. The last examination was done iirc in the 1930s and only looked at teeth. The Queen will not allow further testing but Prince Charles is apparently open to it.

    More’s story is compelling along with his reputation, but as I stated earlier he was only 5 when these events happened and learnt much of it from Richard’s known enemy Bishop Morton of Ely of Morton’s fork fame.

    Like the Shakespeare play which is based on More – wonderful drama but not history in any way shape or form.

  14. Like most things in this story there is a hole and in more’s case the hole is the one person whom claimed to have been there at the time said the bodies were taken away so we wont know until the bones found under the stairs are tested.

  15. Mavis “state of flux” is very polite.

    Clearly there were republican operatives – who worked out an angle (anti – trump) that provided sexual and financial benefits for those in the loop.

    Some on here were taken in – and happily recited lincoln group propaganda without asking the eternal question – who benefits ?

    As always it’s dangerous to follow the herd and not think for oneself

  16. The point is that current level AI might be better at revealing our subjective world than at displaying objective reasoning.

    For that I’m kind of grateful. 🙂

  17. AE
    “‘Saint’ Tomas bloody More loved a good Protestant stake burning. Apparently he was a paragon of virtue or some such. A medieval Beria if you ask me. If his history was as impeccable as his morality then one should put his accounts of an earlier age into the dust bin.”

    Having been educated at a catholic school we had to study Robert Bolt’s “A Man for all Seasons” as required reading and later “The Power and the Glory” by Graham Green. More’s role in hunting down and burning heretics was not so much toned down as entirely left out.

    Ironically as I read more history in later life I came to see More’s historical character was a lot like that of the Lieutenant pursuing the Whiskey Priest in Green’s book. Both were ascetic zealots who justified brutality by their fanatical devotion to their causes.

  18. Imagine the howls of outrage from Murdoch/Stokes/Costello media if the political parties were reversed.

    The NZ PM today announced that vaccinations would start on Saturday 20 February while the Australian PM did a photo op yesterday holding a vial supposedly containing the serum.

  19. zoomster:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 12:57 pm

    [‘You assume he coveted the throne to start with.’]

    Judging by events, I think that’s a pretty fair assumption.

    [‘It’s quite possible he did, but there’s very little evidence to suggest it from the time.’]

    Apart from telling all and sundry that he wanted to be king and this was chronicled at the time, all one can turn to is the one thing that separated him from the Crown were the two princes.

  20. Lars Von Trier:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 2:10 pm

    [‘Mavis “state of flux” is very polite.’]

    Sometimes the ends justify the means. Although there appear to be a few bad apples, and bearing in mind it’s difficult to quantify it, The Lincoln Project did appear to have an effect on the outcome of the election.

  21. Mavis @ #2388 Saturday, February 13th, 2021 – 2:20 pm

    zoomster:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 12:57 pm

    [‘You assume he coveted the throne to start with.’]

    Judging by events, I think that’s a pretty fair assumption.

    [‘It’s quite possible he did, but there’s very little evidence to suggest it from the time.’]

    Apart from telling all and sundry that he wanted to be king and this was chronicled at the time, all one can turn to is the one thing that separated him from the Crown were the two princes.

    In what chronicles Mavis?

  22. “ Thomas More’s credentials are impeccable.”

    As a zealot who hunted down and killed folk when he was in power, absolutely. Oh, and he was a book worm who was not above writing a dash of propaganda for his then benefactor. Bless.

  23. mundo:

    I missed the match but I think Aussie Nick may’ve tanked a bit after winning the first two sets. It’s fairly rare for a player to lose a match after having won the first two sets.

  24. laughtong:

    Saturday, February 13, 2021 at 2:29 pm

    [‘In what chronicles Mavis?’]

    Recorded, then, by competent authority. That was more a throw-away line to highlight that no one would in the day would tell others, save for their inner sanctum, that they coveted the Crown – it could’ve proved fatal. Anyway, I’m plumb tuckered out and will leave it there. Interesting discussion though.

  25. Late Riser @ #2804 Saturday, February 13th, 2021 – 1:25 pm

    Reflecting on AI technology, as far as I understand it anyway, what it does is hoover up data and develop matching responses. If the data are biased then so are the responses. I have a vague memory of a twitter AI that rapidly descended so far into racial and misogynistic abuse that it had to be “killed”. The point is that current level AI might be better at revealing our subjective world than at displaying objective reasoning.

    AI is a term thrown around with varying definitions.
    True AI is used mainly in research where complex seemingly random data can be analysed to show underlying patterns that would elude other more standard methods.
    The sort of AI used to present advertising is only one step removed from database pattern matching we were using since…databases. The main tool used in this regard is your Browser ID which can very accurately identify you from billions of other folk and provide a far more comprehensive history of your browsing than even your web browser generates. However I have mentioned this here many times before so I’ll stop there.

  26. New details about Trump-McCarthy shouting match show Trump refused to call off the rioters

    Washington (CNN)In an expletive-laced phone call with House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy while the Capitol was under attack, then-President Donald Trump said the rioters cared more about the election results than McCarthy did.

    “Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are,” Trump said, according to lawmakers who were briefed on the call afterward by McCarthy.

    McCarthy insisted that the rioters were Trump’s supporters and begged Trump to call them off.

    Trump’s comment set off what Republican lawmakers familiar with the call described as a shouting match between the two men.

    A furious McCarthy told the then-President the rioters were breaking into his office through the windows, and asked Trump, “Who the f–k do you think you are talking to?” according to a Republican lawmaker familiar with the call.

    The newly revealed details of the call, described to CNN by multiple Republicans briefed on it, provide critical insight into the President’s state of mind as rioters were overrunning the Capitol. The existence of the call and some of its details were first reported by Punchbowl News and discussed publicly by McCarthy.

    The Republican members of Congress said the exchange showed Trump had no intention of calling off the rioters even as lawmakers were pleading with him to intervene. Several said it amounted to a dereliction of his presidential duty.

    “He is not a blameless observer, he was rooting for them,” a Republican member of Congress said. “On January 13, Kevin McCarthy said on the floor of the House that the President bears responsibility and he does.”

    Speaking to the President from inside the besieged Capitol, McCarthy pressed Trump to call off his supporters and engaged in a heated disagreement about who comprised the crowd.

    Herrera Beutler went a step further on Friday night, calling on others to speak up about any other details they might know regarding conversations Trump and Pence had on January 6.

    “To the patriots who were standing next to the former president as these conversations were happening, or even to the former vice president: if you have something to add here, now would be the time,” she said in a statement.
    Another Republican member of Congress said the call was problematic for Trump.

    “I think it speaks to the former President’s mindset,” said Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, an Ohio Republican who also voted to impeach Trump last month. “He was not sorry to see his unyieldingly loyal vice president or the Congress under attack by the mob he inspired. In fact, it seems he was happy about it or at the least enjoyed the scenes that were horrifying to most Americans across the country.”

    Full story –
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/trump-mccarthy-shouting-match-details/index.html

  27. A furious McCarthy told the then-President the rioters were breaking into his office through the windows, and asked Trump, “Who the f–k do you think you are talking to?” according to a Republican lawmaker familiar with the call.

    “Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are,” Trump said, according to lawmakers who were briefed on the call afterward by McCarthy.

    Hmm. That’s the sort of thing that might change some minds about the 45th’s guilt. If true, it undermines the argument that the 45th didn’t intend the mob to act how it did. It also sets up the argument that the 45th deliberately chose not to act. The senators will be having a bit of a think about that before deciding to acquit or not. Ultimately I think they will decide they lose either way but lose less by acquitting. So nothing much changes except in 2022 we will hear a lot of, “They can’t be trusted to do the right thing.”

    What’s in it for McCarthy? Is he trying to protect himself from that?

  28. I have no problem with them having a crack at Trump but what about the abject failure of the Capitol Police and other Security Services?

    There should have been multiple resignations and sackings by now.

  29. Used to be you needed a direct source ie someone in the conversation, now it seems hearsay is cool!

    Looking like impeachment has backfired badly for the dems – and cnn is trying to help the old team out.

  30. Q: There should have been multiple resignations and sackings by now.

    There have been multiple sackings, including these before the inauguration- “Three top security officials in Congress lost their jobs Thursday over the embarrassing and deadly security breach of the Capitol by President Donald Trump’s supporters.”

    I thought Trump was implicated by not approving National Guard use in DC on the day..

  31. British Columbia health officials say they’ve identified another COVID-19 variant in the province through testing.
    Speaking at a news conference in Vancouver Friday, B.C.’s top doctor said a recent case has been confirmed to be a variant associated with travel to Nigeria.
    This variant, labelled B.1.525, is new to the province, and the case is the first to have been confirmed in Canada.

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