Winding down

With the end of the year in view, I offer a Tasmanian state poll and not much else.

First up, there are two lengthy and highly substantive new post beneath this one which I like to think warrant your attention: my own review of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ newly published report of its inquiry into the 2019 election, and Adrian Beaumont’s concluding review of Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

So that the comments sections for those posts might remain on topic, I offer this post as the latest open thread. I’m not exactly sure what the imminent festive season means for the schedule of the pollsters – Newspoll might or might not have one last poll under its sleeve just before Christmas, and I’m pretty sure there will be an Essential Research next week, which should feature leadership ratings though not voting intention. We will also presumably get one of Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic aggregations at some point during the silly season.

There is one poll that slipped through my net: the latest effort on Tasmanian state voting intention from EMRS, which continues to find Premier Peter Gutwein in almost as commanding a position as Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan, the other leader for whom COVID-19 has been nothing but good news. The Liberals are credited with 52% of the vote, down two from August, with Labor up one to 25% and the Greens up one to 13%. However, Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier has narrowed from 70-23 to 61-26. The poll was conducted by telephone from November 17 to 23 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,814 comments on “Winding down”

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  1. “Holidaymakers hoping to snap up one of the Victorian government’s $200 tourism vouchers have been left disappointed after the website crashed on Friday morning”
    ________________
    Vic public service can’t seem to get anything right these days.

  2. “It’s projection from Firefox.”

    ***

    Poor Cat is still in denial about the rise of the Greens.

    Apparently the highly touted block function in C+ still doesn’t work either…

  3. Firefox says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 10:31 am
    “I’m not from the Labor Right”

    ***

    The delusion is strong with this one!

    Sorry if the truth upsets you……you have an unhinged hatred of the Greens that is frankly really disturbing. You lash out at Greens like me in sheer bitterness and jealousy and seek to blame us for all of Labor’s own mistakes.

    I do find it rather amusing that I seem to have developed a fanclub of sorts, but really ladies, you’re just making yourselves appear more and more desperate with every post.

    Unhinged, disturbing, bitter, jealous, amusing, desperate….ladies!

    Sexist stereotyping by a self-styled Lefty who is no such thing at all. What a total fucking wanker FF actually is.

  4. Steve777 @ #32 Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 9:13 am

    Texas’s proposed complaint even has a claim that, given Trump’s middle-of-election-night lead in the defendant states, there was less than a “one in a quadrillion” chance that Biden should have won.

    Did they show their calculations?

    I’m kicking myself for missing the opportunity of backing Biden at a quadrillion to one. Was chuffed enough to get the $2.80 that was on offer at the time.

  5. “Sexist stereotyping by a self-styled Lefty who is no such thing at all. What a total fucking wanker FF actually is.”

    ***

    Speaking of unhinged desperados who specialise in making no sense whatsoever lol

  6. @jean15849180
    ·
    6m
    “The best health minister in the world,”says Scumo.
    Trump would have said,
    “The best health minister in the history of the America’.”
    Scumo is following but he’s a long way behind.
    But, never fear, he’ll catch up…given time.

    We all hope that he isn’t given enough time!

  7. To Stirling Griff

    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    36m
    And when you formally abstain you have the guts to sit at the back of the Chamber to signify your intention, not scurry away like a weasel. Voting IS a big deal. It is a privilege.#auspol

  8. Firefox says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 10:54 am
    “Sexist stereotyping by a self-styled Lefty who is no such thing at all. What a total fucking wanker FF actually is.”

    ***

    Speaking of unhinged desperados who specialise in making no sense whatsoever lol

    FauxFox….Maintaining the Sneer.

  9. The problem here, Firefox, is that the Labor Right can’t use their worst insult on you, which is to call you a “Green”. So they have to try and think of something else. But “thinking” is not their strongest suit.

  10. It is noticeable (to me, anyway) that Greens supporters never directly criticise the lNP unless it is to same-same with Labor. They seem so angry all the time, so that they cannot see details. I thought they are supposed to be more intelligent than that. The Greens I knew years ago weren’t spiteful.

  11. Firefox…. cutest sneer evah! But the silliness of the RW partisans on this blog doesn’t warrant any attention or response at all….

  12. @noplaceforsheep
    ·
    3m
    Morrison spends taxpayer millions trying to gain Cormann credibility for OECD gig, then says this
    ***
    The Age@theage
    · 6h
    “Australia’s climate and energy policy will be set here in Australia, in Australia’s national interest, not to get a speaking slot at some international summit,” @ScottMorrisonMP said in question time on Thursday. #Auspol https://theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-shrugs-off-need-to-speak-at-global-climate-summit-20201210-p56mgg.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1607579860

    Morrison is not known for consistency, is he!

  13. “and I think OC was musing the other day that Askin shaded Bin Chicken in the corruption stakes …”

    Indeed. If we set the bar low enough any politician’s behaviour becomes acceptable. Perhaps Eddie Obeid can use this argument to have his conviction overturned?

  14. Lizzie- your experience of Greens supporters does not accord with mine at all. Nor do all ALP supporters in my experience show the obsessive antipathy to the Greens that the ALP partisan faction on PB shows.

  15. I’m sorry to say that the majority of Australians are a conservative mob of do nothings who are happy to sit back and watch while the rest of the world are moving forward taking action on climate change and also concrete steps to stimulate their economies. Scomos idea of stimulating the economy is borrowing to give handouts to the punters to spend up for Christmas and tax breaks to the big end of town Poor old Scummo thought he was going to get a gig at the climate change conference only to snubbed and allocated a seat in the back row.
    As for the economy, Australians are happy to sit back on their fat arses and rely on coal and iron ore to prop up the economy but guess what, these days are coming to an end and the way China is acting this will be sooner than later. Banana republic coming up folks. Make the most of the good times because they aint going to last much longer

  16. The interesting thing about Askin is that while everyone knew he was corrupt nothing was done while he was alive- thankfully we now have ICAC.
    If I remember correctly Askin’s estate was handed a very large tax bill when his widow died, for tax not paid on illicit dealings.

  17. max

    Well, I’m very glad that Greens supporters “out there” are more pleasant, because nowadays the only ones I “meet” are on PB and in the media. It would help if the ones on PB would stop accusing us all of being right-wing.

  18. Spray
    “I’m kicking myself for missing the opportunity of backing Biden at a quadrillion to one. Was chuffed enough to get the $2.80 that was on offer at the time.”

    IIRC, during the early phase of the Dem Primaries, Biden was at 180:1 to win the Presidency. That was when certain over-excited folks were already calling the Primaries for Sanders, based on results in IA and NH. As it turned out, Sanders supporters were engaged in premature extrapolation.

    But I wasn’t aware the odds blew out to 1,000,000,000,000,000:1.

  19. Askin was helped by the Police Commissioner Norman Allen, who was getting $5000 pw from Abe Saffron for protecting brothels and casinos. However his greatest moment came in the Glenfield siege when he gave Wally Mellish (the siegee) an armalite rifle and forced Mellish’s reluctant girlfriend to marry him. A shotgun wedding indeed.

  20. Lizzie

    That will happen when Labor supporters speak up in support of the Greens when they speak up on issues Labor is campaigning on.

    As I pointed out Labor and the Greens on a unity ticket attacking the LNP over WorkChoices 2.

    Not from what you saw posted here last night. No unity ticket in sight.

  21. “ Perhaps Eddie Obeid can use this argument to have his conviction overturned?”

    This government has used ‘whataboutism’ logic over Obeid etc as one giant smoke screen over its own behaviour since day one in office back in 2011. The Kate McClymont frizzle over the same in the Daily Bin Chicken has help spread a sense of public torpor and apathy as the pirates systematically loot the state.

    While I doubt Bin Chicken has personally taken coin, alla Askin, her reward will be a a series of senior board positions at the likes of Meriton, Lend Lease, Mac Bank, etc etc. She stands to make millions.

  22. C@t
    The United States of America
    It is said that before the Civil War the USA was considered to be plural “The USA are…” but after it gradually became singular

  23. The Premier was present yesterday, presumably as the local member, at the unveiling of a plaque for Bob Hawke near his old house in Northbridge.

  24. “ The Premier was present yesterday, presumably as the local member, at the unveiling of a plaque for Bob Hawke near his old house in Northbridge.”

    Was rotting fruit and manure thrown?

  25. From TGA’s live blog: “ PM Scott Morrison says the states and territories are working on any “vulnerabilities” in their plans to ensure the virus remains relatively contained.

    We need to tighten some arrangements particularly around [AIRCREW] as well as on [DIPLOMATS].”

    Hmmm, sounds like all the photo-ops/ chatter is $houty, all the follow-up the states …

  26. max says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 11:18 am

    Firefox…. cutest sneer evah! But the silliness of the RW partisans on this blog doesn’t warrant any attention or response at all….

    FF is sexist. This has nothing to do with their purported Leftism. Their sexism is simply another dimension of their preposterous self-admiration and their contempt for other bludgers.

  27. lizzie says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 11:20 am
    @noplaceforsheep
    ·
    3m
    Morrison spends taxpayer millions trying to gain Cormann credibility for OECD gig, then says this
    ***
    The Age@theage
    · 6h

    “Australia’s climate and energy policy will be set here in Australia, in Australia’s national interest, not to get a speaking slot at some international summit,” @ScottMorrisonMP said in question time on Thursday. #Auspol

    As remarked above, perversely, Morrison’s ratings with coal-minded voters will be improved by this. Jingoism and denialism are twin policies, now made more overt. The Greens, of course, will continue to find ways to support the LNP in their conquest of climate change politics.

  28. David Crowe
    @CroweDM
    ·
    1m
    Victorian premier Daniel Andrews thanks other premiers for taking international arrivals while Victoria stopped.

    Andrews says Victoria will increase its numbers in hotel quarantine and points out the need to bring in thousands of farm workers.

  29. lizzie @ #70 Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 11:27 am

    max

    Well, I’m very glad that Greens supporters “out there” are more pleasant, because nowadays the only ones I “meet” are on PB and in the media. It would help if the ones on PB would stop accusing us all of being right-wing.

    It’s all they’ve got, lizzie. And it’s pathetic.

    Especially when a lot of Greens these days are more right wing capitalist and anti-environment than I am! They talk it but they don’t walk it.

  30. max says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 11:21 am

    Lizzie- your experience of Greens supporters does not accord with mine at all. Nor do all ALP supporters in my experience show the obsessive antipathy to the Greens that the ALP partisan faction on PB shows.

    In my experience, politically-active Greens exhibit nothing much more than disdain for Labor. The Greens publish anti-Labor diatribes to their social audience all the time. They actively propagate and cultivate phobia. In this, they are if anything even more snide than the LNP. What we see here at PB is not unusual. It is completely consistent with their usual diet. They think they are so much better than the rest…as we can see from their campaigning at PB.

  31. Firefox

    ‘The delusion is strong with this one!’

    Too scared to name me, huh?

    No, I’m not deluded. I’m a long member of the Labor party, and I know exactly where I sit.

    ‘Oh and by the way, not every post I make on this blog is about you or directed at you as you seem to think.’

    Which is why I SAID that all you needed to do was say that ‘that wasn’t directed at you’. I even apologised in advance in case I’d misunderstood you Instead you dig the hole deeper and confirm that indeed, it was.

    I’m increasingly of the suspicion that the reason you identify with the Greens is that you know that you’re not as smart as you’d like to think you are, or as principled, but you think that copying and pasting Greens tweets makes you look as if you are.

    I gave you a chance to show some moral fibre. You don’t have any, so you failed to step up to the plate.

    Don’t whinge at me if you fall short of the standards one would expect – from your endless moralising here – that you would uphold.

  32. Lizzie

    Cat is one of the right faction that continually attacks the Greens.

    To get some Labor perspective of the opposite check out what Andrew Barr told Katherine Murphy on the Guardian political podcast.

    When Labor people start following Barr’s advice they are practically working with the Greens.

    As I said. Last night made it very plain.
    The Greens and Labor on a unity ticket attacking the LNP and you yourself saw the posts here.

    Edit: For those on the right. Naming the differences in other states is irrelevant. All your excuses don’t apply to that conversation precisely as Barr addresses them.

  33. Mayor GGG and Costa Georgiadis, who had a shave for the occasion, were there.

    The plaque for Bob Hawke was sponsored by LandCare Australia and some brewing company.

    Go to the LandCare Australia Facebook for you viewing pleasure.

  34. @JeremyPoxon tweets
    majority of australians would like a UBI

    majority of australians would like a job guarantee

    it’s probably time for the ALP to put it’s big boy pants on and create a sweeping anti-poverty platform that people will absolutely get behind

    @ShoebridgeMLP tweets
    A majority of Australians would welcome a universal basic income, survey finds – it’s because it makes a lot of sense I assume.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924

  35. What would be better – much better – than a UBI would be a commitment to full employment supported by a jobs guarantee. This should be complemented with commitments to training and family-friendly childcare support…among other things.

    Full employment was once a staple bi-partisan foundation stone in Australia. It has been debauched by the LNP’s determination to punish and repress working people. This really should change. Working people are to be valued and encouraged.

  36. guytaur @ #92 Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 9:32 am

    @JeremyPoxon tweets
    majority of australians would like a UBI

    majority of australians would like a job guarantee

    it’s probably time for the ALP to put it’s big boy pants on and create a sweeping anti-poverty platform that people will absolutely get behind

    @ShoebridgeMLP tweets
    A majority of Australians would welcome a universal basic income, survey finds – it’s because it makes a lot of sense I assume.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924

    How many surveyed would actual understand it.

    Maybe they just see as money for nothing, so what’s not to like.

  37. Oakeshott
    “He has negotiated diplomatic relations between Israel and Morocco. And all it took was the USA recognising Morocco’s claim to the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (who knows where that shithole is anyway)”

    SADR lays claim to Western Sahara, a fragment of Saharan Africa and former Spanish territory next to Morocco. Western Sahara is also claimed by Morocco, which controls most of it (~80%)., including the entire coast. The official SADR government is in exile in Algeria. So Trump isn’t exactly sticking his neck out in backing the kingdom of Morocco over SADR.

  38. Might as well repost the two I put in the wrong thread this morning –

    A guppy in a pool full of sharks is our Saint Scotty of the Marketing. Jacinda Ardern also wasn’t invited but she doesn’t seem to be pouting and sulking…silly me, I forgot she’s an adult…like our child in charge.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/un-defends-excluding-morrison-from-climate-summit-canberra-livid-with-johnson-over-snub-20201211-p56mk7.html

    Coming soon; the Amazon Rectal Health and Sphincter Strength Probe (with a free tube of lubricant)?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/12/10/amazon-halo-band-review/

  39. Briefly

    I think UBI is better. South Korea and Spain are doing versions of this.

    Biden’s Fed Chair Yellen is open to it.

    The most popular candidate for New York City Mayor (not even running yet) campaigned on it.

    The UBI is understood. It values all people and reduces divisory labels the right uses to demonise the poor.

  40. Vic Regional Voucher application – Done, just required a few zillion refreshes of pages and stuff.

    Who would have thought that free money for things would be popular???

    I just hope this stuff gets to those who have done it tough…

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