Winding down

With the end of the year in view, I offer a Tasmanian state poll and not much else.

First up, there are two lengthy and highly substantive new post beneath this one which I like to think warrant your attention: my own review of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ newly published report of its inquiry into the 2019 election, and Adrian Beaumont’s concluding review of Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

So that the comments sections for those posts might remain on topic, I offer this post as the latest open thread. I’m not exactly sure what the imminent festive season means for the schedule of the pollsters – Newspoll might or might not have one last poll under its sleeve just before Christmas, and I’m pretty sure there will be an Essential Research next week, which should feature leadership ratings though not voting intention. We will also presumably get one of Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic aggregations at some point during the silly season.

There is one poll that slipped through my net: the latest effort on Tasmanian state voting intention from EMRS, which continues to find Premier Peter Gutwein in almost as commanding a position as Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan, the other leader for whom COVID-19 has been nothing but good news. The Liberals are credited with 52% of the vote, down two from August, with Labor up one to 25% and the Greens up one to 13%. However, Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier has narrowed from 70-23 to 61-26. The poll was conducted by telephone from November 17 to 23 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,814 comments on “Winding down”

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  1. And who better to do “boring ,mindless , dirty jobs” than all those “brown people” , they are suited to such work eh Johannes ?

    horticulture industry has urged Scott Morrison and the states to agree to bring in Pacific Islanders quarantine-free.

  2. I see the privileged little News Corpse poonce, Johannes Leak, has received his riding orders to demonise KK with the crones and cronettes demographic that reads The Australian.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe looks at how Australia came through the challenges of 2020.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/our-national-triumph-by-numbers-2020-has-been-a-battle-shared-and-won-by-many-20201210-p56mgq.html
    And The Australian’s Ewin Hannan says business is demanding a two-year delay to tougher new penalties for companies ripping off workers, increasing pressure from both employers and unions on the Morrison government to make changes to its industrial relations bill.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/employers-seek-wage-fines-delay/news-story/f6365a6b5a4b272eb822293a1d6845ed
    Josh Butler thinks the government may back down on its IR laws as a union war looms.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/12/10/industrial-relations-workplace/
    Phil Coorey says that by picking at the scab of WorkChoices, the industrial relations bill gave Labor a stronger than anticipated end to the parliamentary year.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fight-government-doesn-t-want-gives-albo-an-opening-20201209-p56m4o
    “Who would have thought John Setka could be such a unifying force?”, asks Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-who-would-have-thought-john-setka-could-be-such-a-unifying-force-151852
    According to Jennifer Hewett, Scott Morrison conquers the ‘China’ virus, but China is a tougher threat.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/scott-morrison-conquers-china-virus-but-china-is-a-tougher-threat-20201210-p56mg2
    Ben Butler writes that the boss of Australia’s biggest super fund, AustralianSuper, has questioned whether changes to laws governing the sector proposed by the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, are genuinely directed at improving retirement savings.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/11/australiansuper-boss-hits-back-at-politically-motivated-attacks-on-industry-super
    The ACTU has criticised the Morrison Government’s attack on the superannuation system and is pushing for reforms, writes William Olson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/supers-potential-should-not-be-superseded-says-actu,14606
    Delivery giants Uber and Deliveroo are likely to be among well-known gig economy brands hauled before a Senate inquiry looking into the impacts of insecure or precarious employment.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/uber-deliveroo-to-face-gig-economy-senate-inquiry-20201210-p56mba
    John Warhurst describes how our former prime ministers have had a big year in 2020. A good read.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7047997/former-prime-ministers-in-2020-theyre-no-feather-dusters/?cs=14258
    Nick Bonyhady explains the trouble Porter is in regarding his workplace legislation and trying to save face.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-rubbishes-turnover-test-for-below-award-pay-deals-20201210-p56mg8.html
    Isabelle Lane tells us that critics are saying the Morrison government’s proposed Surveillance Bill could be used to target everyone from Black Lives Matter campaigners to underage kids illegally downloading movies.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/12/10/dutton-surveillance-bill-australia/
    David Crowe writes that federal election rules would be overhauled to limit early voting and require Australians to show photo ID before they cast their ballots under a plan that has been labelled an “outrage” that deprives people of their rights.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-proposals-trigger-furore-over-voting-rights-20201210-p56mhv.html
    Matt Johnson lines up the many big companies that continue to pay zero company tax.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2020/12/10/corporate-tax-big-business-zero/
    Michael Fowler explains how the Andrews government is considering a plan where up to 23,000 students would return to Victoria by April and undertake 14-day quarantine in student accommodation.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/international-students-could-quarantine-in-hubs-from-january-20201210-p56mf7.html
    Josh Butler reports that South Australian senator Stirling Griff was ducking outrage on Thursday, after his last-minute parliamentary backflip that allowed the government to extend the cashless debit card scheme in a marathon Senate sitting. He effectively voted for the card.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/12/10/stirling-griff-cashless-debit-card/
    Ian Henschke, who is the chief advocate at National Seniors Australia, tells us that elderly Australians are dying while waiting to receive government help
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/elderly-australians-are-dying-while-waiting-to-receive-government-help-20201209-p56m0l.html
    Associate Professor Matt McDonald provides three reasons meeting climate targets and dumping Kyoto credits won’t salvage Australia’s international reputation.
    https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-meeting-climate-targets-and-dumping-kyoto-credits-wont-salvage-australias-international-reputation-151836
    Samantha Dick explains the real picture about Australians’ attitude towards vaccination.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/12/10/australia-coronavirus-vaccine-attitude/
    Meanwhile, with US states frantically preparing to begin months of COVID-19 vaccinations that could end the pandemic, a poll has found only about half of Americans are ready to roll up their sleeves.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2020/12/10/covid-vaccine-united-states/
    There is no behaviour, it seems, that warrants scrutiny or disciplinary action if you are a member of the Morrison Government. This is because the government of the day, today, is in a league all of its own, says Michelle Pini.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-anti-accountability-vaccine-gets-l-np-off-scott-free,14604
    The hysteria over the Victorian government’s MoU with China’s Belt and Road Initiative shows a disturbing lack of understanding of the project by media commentators, academics and some MPs, writes Colin Heseltine.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australia-pays-high-price-for-megaphone-diplomacy/
    The Berejiklian government is facing a $2 billion budget blow out on its health infrastructure program, with delays to the planned completion dates of seven major developments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/delays-budget-overruns-forces-nsw-to-spend-an-extra-2b-on-health-infrastructure-20201210-p56mhf.html
    A desperate horticulture industry has urged Scott Morrison and the states to agree at Friday’s national cabinet meeting to bring in Pacific Islanders quarantine-free, warning that the country is on track to meet a labour shortage of 26,000 people by March.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-growers-call-for-worker-bubbles/news-story/372ce524e4d1f41a442329dceaa9d730
    Lisa Visentin writes that the ABC’s leading political discussion programs The Drum and Insiders lacked conservative voices in their 2019 federal election coverage, but a major review found the broadcaster met its impartiality standard. If the government wasn’t doing so many crappy things it might have looked different!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-shows-didn-t-have-enough-conservative-voices-election-review-finds-20201210-p56m8u.html
    Jeff Sparrow opines that Australia must reckon with the fact the Christchurch terrorist developed much of his hatred here.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/10/australia-must-reckon-with-the-fact-the-christchurch-terrorist-developed-much-of-his-hatred-here
    Zoe Samios tells us that Australia’s competition regulator will closely scrutinise a pivotal lawsuit launched by the United States government against Facebook that could force the social media giant to sell photo sharing app Instagram and messaging service WhatsApp.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/significant-implications-worldwide-accc-to-monitor-key-lawsuit-aiming-to-break-facebook-apart-20201210-p56mh2.html
    Dave Donovan farewells Mungo MacCallum.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/vale-mungo-maccallum–a-true-progressive-voice-gone,14605
    China has slapped another new tax on Australian wine that all but extinguishes local producers’ access to the world’s largest market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-wine-hit-with-new-strike-as-offset-for-subsidies-20201210-p56me6.html
    New research has found that poor job quality and poor working conditions are key reasons why restaurant employers have trouble attracting and retaining workers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/restaurateurs-better-served-improving-conditions-than-complaining-20201208-p56lm4.html
    The London Daily Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner explains that the choice is now between no deal and a very hard Brexit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-die-is-cast-the-choice-is-now-between-no-deal-and-a-very-hard-brexit-20201210-p56m81.html
    Boris Johnson would only have himself to blame for a no-deal Brexit, explains Simon Jenkins.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/10/boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    Simon Letch

    Jim Pavlidis

    Mark David


    Matt Golding




    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak

    From the US














  4. [Cassandra Goldie
    @cassandragoldie

    Let it escape no one that a very last act of 2020 Parliament will be cut to incomes of over 3 mill ppl with least including over 1 mill children. From 1 Jan, as others celebrate NYE, #jobseeker lifeline will be cut to $50 pd, then from Mar $40 pd. Shameful. ]

  5. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 7:46 am

    [Cassandra Goldie
    @cassandragoldie

    Let it escape no one that a very last act of 2020 Parliament will be cut to incomes of over 3 mill ppl with least including over 1 mill children. From 1 Jan, as others celebrate NYE, #jobseeker lifeline will be cut to $50 pd, then from Mar $40 pd. Shameful. ]

    What better way to force the unemployed into low paying jobs that don’t allow them to earn much more than that?

  6. Thanks Cat (from the previous thread). Good on you. I am not as positive or motivated as you, at the moment. I have resigned myself to the knowledge that governance at a federal level is shot, aided by a largely pathetic media and an apathetic, ignorant public.

    I am so jaded that when I saw Coorey’s piece above about ‘Albo gets an opening” I wondered whether Morrison’s people helped write that story to help keep Albo in the job. He’s a nice bloke, but he’s letting Morrison off the hook so often that this government’s antics and disregard for accountability is becoming the new norm.

  7. Juukan Gorge Committee releases multiparty majority report

    The Joint Standing Committee on the Northern Australia Inquiry into Juukan Gorge have today released a multiparty majority interim report with a range of recommendations including that Rio Tinto negotiate a restitution package for the destruction of the Juukan rock shelters with the traditional owners, the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura peoples (PKKP) and ensure full reconstruction of the Junkanoo rock shelters.

    “There is multiparty support for strong reforms within the mining industry and state and federal legislation, Senator Siewert said.

    Mining companies, State Governments and the Federal Government are on notice. The world is watching. They cannot allow the wanton destruction of First Nations cultural heritage any longer.

    This inquiry has laid bare the hypocrisy from mining companies who talk about investing in First Nations communities when they have required Traditional owners to sign gag clauses in agreements with them.

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/juukan-gorge-committee-releases-multiparty-majority-report

  8. Anti-money laundering laws

    The Government and Labor have again wasted an opportunity to include real estate agents, accountants and lawyers subject to mandatory reporting of money laundering.

    “We have been waiting 14 years for this badly needed reform,” Greens Economic Justice spokesperson Senator Nick McKim said.

    “Dirty money is flooding Australia’s property market, helping to push house prices even higher, and making owning a home even more difficult for too many Australians.”

    “The Greens’ amendment would have forced the Government to introduce legislation to include real estate agents, accountants and lawyers in the mandatory reporting scheme.”

    “Such measures have been introduced in all but six countries around the world and have been promised since 2006.”

    “Labor promised this reform before the last election, but they have squibbed it at the first hurdle.”

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/anti-money-laundering-laws

  9. Lynchpin,
    Thanks for the reply to my reply to you. 😀

    I reckon that it’s going to have to be up to the Australian people to throw the government out, not a particularly spectacular Opposition Leader, that so many crave and think is the only thing that will win Labor the next or subsequent elections.

    I go by the maxim that, governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them. So I guess we have to wait for the hubris and overreach of Morrison and the Coalition to work its way into the lived experience of everyday Australians and for Labor not to scare the horses and to keep themselves in the game within striking distance, as they seem to be doing.

  10. Michael Pascoe bells the corruption cat in politics.

    Sure, Scott Morrison has unlimited form with his three trademark responses to scandals: Simply continue maintaining that black is white whatever evidence is produced, from #sportsrorts to Robodebt; ignoring the evidence with a “I don’t accept the premise of your question”; ignoring the issue with “on water matters”, “family matters” or “I’ve addressed that question”.

    But Ms Berejiklian has moved the whole game on to:
    “Yeah, it’s black. Too bad.”

    Amidst the confetti of shredded documents two weeks ago, she admitted the council grants were blatant pork barrelling.

    “It’s not an illegal practice,” she said.

    No, it’s not illegal – it’s just corrupt.

    Defending that admission this week, the NSW Premier placed the star upon the public corruption Christmas tree with the claim that she was in fact being “upfront and honest”.

    Responsibility for anything has been replaced by constant “marketing”, photo ops, and a level of Newspeak that Orwell only imagined as fiction.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/12/11/michael-pascoe-politics-evolved-in-2020-corruption-is-now-openly-accepted/

  11. “Thanks Cat (from the previous thread). Good on you. I am not as positive or motivated as you, at the moment.”

    ***

    It’s just a transparent facade – spin – or putting on a “brave face” if you will. It wasn’t long ago that the desperados from the Labor Right were telling everyone how disillusioned they were. Unless something changes, they know they are looking down the barrel of another term as the de jure opposition. The knives are already being sharpened. Poor Albo, who has completely forgotten how to fight Tories, must be getting a sore neck from looking back over his own shoulder.

  12. The report labelled the episode of The Drum, aired on May 6, “one-sided” finding it was characterised by “not just a positive impression for policies identified with Labor’s platform but also at times a marked enthusiasm for a Labor victory”.
    ________________
    Gave up on The Drum ages ago due to its bias.
    I wonder who was on the panel that night. There are many contenders, would not surprise if old favourites like Jane Caro and Dee Madigan appeared on that episode.

  13. Question
    When are Labor going to learn to ask short sharp focussed questions that don’t allow the govt to duck and weave and not answer to point of the question?

    Answer
    We saw yesterday in QT that when it’s a direct question requiring yes or no, the Speaker disallows it, and Morrison simply waffles about something completely different.

  14. Taylormade

    It’s a pity you’ve “given up” on The Drum. They always have one solid representative of the conservative view, plus economists and scientists. They have also featured many First Nations voices. I suppose that makes them “biased to the left” in conservative eyes.

  15. Rio’s chairman has delighted us long enough

    The parliamentary inquiry into the destruction of Juukan Gorge is coming for Rio Tinto chairman Simon Thompson: his position looks untenable and he should resign.

    The interim report refers repeatedly to “the culture and practices inside Rio Tinto”, deficiencies which “have not been fully grappled with”.

    The report is a “difficult read”, sure, but “a lot of great work has been done” in a “remarkable year”, Jacques says in a message to staff written from a parallel universe.

    Absent from his list of great works is Rio’s negotiations with traditional owners for two weeks after dynamiting the 46,000-year-old sacred rock shelters (and blowing up its own reputation) for a mining moratorium covering the rest of Juukan Gorge and elsewhere.

    It’s up with Rio telling the inquiry that when Jaques told a Brisbane staff meeting his policy in dealing with “deadwood” employees was to tell them to “Fit in or f— off” that he was talking about safety breaches.

    But reparations will be paid, Jacques assured staff, plus $50 million “to advance Indigenous leadership in our Australian business”.

    Rio can afford this on its tax savings alone from selling Australian iron ore from its Singapore marketing hub. BHP was paying 17.5 per cent tax on its Singapore arm and has settled with the ATO. Rio pays 5 per cent in Singapore and tells the ATO, what tax problem?

    Jaques himself could fund more than half the money for Indigenous management from his payout when he leaves in March, but that’s not happening.

    Like Jacques, Thompson has delighted us long enough. So why is he still here, again?

    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/rio-s-chairman-has-delighted-us-long-enough-20201210-p56me5

  16. This deserves to be known as the “Trump amendment” – beloved of right wing politicians everywhere as a form of voter suppression and carried to extremes by Trump and the GOP.

    (from BK’s news round up)
    David Crowe writes that federal election rules would be overhauled to limit early voting and require Australians to show photo ID before they cast their ballots under a plan that has been labelled an “outrage” that deprives people of their rights.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-proposals-trigger-furore-over-voting-rights-20201210-p56mhv.html

  17. Ah, Firefox. Still stereotyping.

    And applying the stereotyping very badly, too. I’m not from the Labor Right, for example; I’ve consistently said Albo as a leader was a bad idea (had several arguments pre the last election with Rex or mundo, forget which, where I said that very clearly), so to label me as ‘a desperado from the Labor Right’ is incorrect.

    I’m surprised that you, with your superior moral compass, would engage in stereotyping and misrepresentation, and that now it’s been pointed out to you, your higher standards of integrity and fairness will lead to an apology, or at least a denial that you were referring to me as part of that group.

    The slur is also wrong when applied to C@, who (as far as I can recall), has never expressed disillusionment with the party* and has always been a staunch Albo supporter, so I think you owe her an apology too.

    *To be disillusioned, of course, you had to have illusions to start with. As I entered the party disillusioned, perhaps I’m using the wrong phraseology. If so, apologies if that misled anyone.

    ** I’m really interested in seeing how a superior moral being behaves when an error is pointed out to them. It will provide me, as a weaker, frailer mortal, with an idea of what integrity, honesty and courage looks like.

  18. Helen Duggan
    @helen_duggan
    ·
    4m
    Mr Morrison’s pants were on fire again this morning. He was claiming credit for having and implementing the plans which have brought Covid under control in Australia.

  19. Nearly two-thirds of Australians say they would support the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI), according to a new poll.

    Key points:
    58 per cent of Australians support a universal basic income
    The COVID lockdowns may have increased sympathy for UBI
    A large number of Australians would spend more time with family and friends, and doing physical activities, if they received UBI

    The finding comes after millions of Australians were forced to rely on some kind of regular welfare payment this year to survive the COVID recession.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924

  20. Trump’s election losses are up to 55 now, and Texas is shaping up to be another loss, the claim appearing to be based on a hotch-potch of QAnon conspiracy theories.

    Brought by Texas’s ethically challenged attorney general, Ken Paxton, the case is legally preposterous. By Texas’s own admission, it’s “challenging” the other states’ “administration of the 2020 election.” No constitutional provision, no statute and no principle of law gives one state the standing to challenge another state’s handling of an election. In our system, Texas isn’t the boss of Pennsylvania. Allowing such suits would invite a multistate free-for-all every time a presidential election is held.

    Beyond that, there’s no reason to believe the Supreme Court, which has jurisdiction to hear cases between states, will entertain this one. It considers that “original” jurisdiction — its power to act as the first court to hear a case, and not on appeal — to be discretionary. And it exercises that discretion sparingly, because it’s not set up to be a trial court, let alone in such (supposedly) exigent circumstances. When matters can be resolved by suits involving parties other than states, the court tends to decline to hear them. Trump’s intervention motion thus undercuts the rationale for involving the high court — it shows the disputes could be resolved in other cases in other courts, as in fact they have been. Another brilliant move by his “elite” legal “strike force.”

    What of the Texas suit’s merits? It has none. It’s a recycling of failed claims. Whining about poll-watchers being excluded, nonsense about “mysterious late night dumps of thousands of ballots,” fantasies about rigged Dominion voting machines — a Cuisinart of allegations rejected by courts from Philadelphia to Carson City.

    Texas’s proposed complaint even has a claim that, given Trump’s middle-of-election-night lead in the defendant states, there was less than a “one in a quadrillion” chance that Biden should have won. Do they really think the justices of the Supreme Court are that stupid?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-conway-trump-texas-steal-election/2020/12/10/be38b1dc-3b0c-11eb-98c4-25dc9f4987e8_story.html

  21. This made me almost choke on my cornflakes. Morrison and his government hate the public service (except their hand picked heads of departments).

    Australian Public Service praised for ‘finest year’ by Scott Morrison

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has lavished praise on the Australian Public Service in a speech marking the final sitting day of Parliament for 2020.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7050366/their-finest-year-pm-praises-public-service-performance-during-pandemic/?cs=14350

  22. zoomster,
    It’s projection from Firefox. The desperadoes are The Greens. They are seeing their 30 year experiment dying on the vine and the ‘bastards’ that they have tried to replace, both in the hearts of the unions (and btw, where is Dean Mighell and his delusions of a Greens-aligned union movement these days? 😀 ) and the electorate, failing.

    Too bad, so sad.

  23. ‘fess,
    When I read about that I reflected that I thought it was The United States of America, with each State being virtually sovereign? Especially wrt matters of an election. Otherwise why have the Electoral College?

  24. BK @ #3 Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 7:45 am

    “Who would have thought John Setka could be such a unifying force?”, asks Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-who-would-have-thought-john-setka-could-be-such-a-unifying-force-151852

    As I said, Labor might rue the day they did a dirty deal with the Liberals to bust a problematic union. At the very least, John Setka might have the last laugh over Albo …

    Albanese is ending the year in a bad place. His problems go beyond COVID putting a restraint on the opposition. There is substantial questioning of his leadership among his colleagues, and it has grown recently. He can’t any longer be sure he’ll lead the party to the election and this uncertainty feeds back into his performance.

    The problem is that it is us who will be the biggest losers from Albo’s abysmal performance.

  25. citizen,
    Morrison will never give up on trying to wrench reality away from the minds of Australians and replace it with his fantasies for them to swallow via big doses of his execrable homilies. In the end, as I have been saying this morning, it’s got to be up to those same Australians being force fed this garbage to vomit it back up. Preferably all over him and his amoral and corrupt party.

  26. C@t:

    The article was written by George Conway who says it’s a fraud, a farce.

    And besides that, aren’t Republicans supposed to be for states’ rights? 😆

  27. Texas’s proposed complaint even has a claim that, given Trump’s middle-of-election-night lead in the defendant states, there was less than a “one in a quadrillion” chance that Biden should have won.

    Did they show their calculations?

  28. On the Climate Change virtual summit this weekend and Morrison not getting a speaking spot (Scomo can still attend if he wants; he is resentful of the refusal to give him a speaking platform for his views), his tantrum is really breathtakingly arrogant. Not using carbon credits dating back to Kyoto is not action, it is an end to denial. Australia’s federal government actions to meet Paris agreement targets remain at Zero. Only States are acting. Australia’s policy commitments remain less than many mid-wealth countries like Argentina and Mexico. We are an international pariah on this issue.
    https://unfccc.int/news/record-number-of-countries-present-their-climate-action-progress-at-climate-dialogues

    Also with the USA under Biden about to rejoin the Paris agreement, and even China acting to reach zero by 2060, Australia is now incredibly politically isolated, from its closest ally (USA), its major trading partner (China) and the rest of the world.

  29. Steve777:

    In a way 😆

    “The probability of former Vice President Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — independently given President Trump’s early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,” it reads at one point. “For former Vice President Biden to win these four States collectively, the odds of that event happening decrease to less than one in a quadrillion to the fourth power.”

    After citing the individual credited for this interesting math, it continues.

    “The same less than one in a quadrillion statistical improbability of Mr. Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — independently exists when Mr. Biden’s performance in each of those Defendant States is compared to former Secretary of State Hilary [sic] Clinton’s performance in the 2016 general election and President Trump’s performance in the 2016 and 2020 general elections,” it reads. “Again, the statistical improbability of Mr. Biden winning the popular vote in these four States collectively is 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/09/trumps-effort-steal-election-comes-down-some-utterly-ridiculous-statistical-claims/

  30. Confessions @ #NaN Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 9:06 am

    C@t:

    The article was written by George Conway who says it’s a fraud, a farce.

    And besides that, aren’t Republicans supposed to be for states’ rights? 😆

    Yes but, respectfully to George Conway and he probably knows it, that’s not the point. The point is to keep the meme of an illegitimate election fresh in the minds of the MAGAts. Which Trump no doubt has plans to parlay all the way to 2024.

    Except it won’t work out that way. As this article explains:

    Donald Trump lost the presidency, but his opponents so far have not achieved the victory they want most: A fatal puncturing of the Trump movement, a repudiation so complete that it severs his astonishing grip on supporters and leaves him with no choice but to slink offstage and into the blurry past.

    For now, Trump dominates conversations about both present and future. His outlandish claims that he won the election except for comprehensive fraud have helped raise more than $200 million since Election Day. Many of his partisans share his dream of recapturing the presidency in 2024. For those who despise him, to paraphrase a famous Democratic speech, it seems clear the work goes on, the cause endures, the fear still lives, and the nightmare shall never die.

    Except it will die — most likely with more speed and force than looks possible today.

    There are three primary reasons to be deeply skeptical that Trump’s moment of dominating his party and public consciousness will continue long after Jan. 20.

    Most important are the abundant precedents suggesting Trump does not have another important act in national politics. The perception that Trump will remain relevant hinges on the possibility that he is a unique historical figure. Trump, however, is singular in one sense only: No politician of his stripe has ever achieved the presidency. In multiple other ways, he is a familiar American type, anticipated by such diverse figures as Joseph McCarthy, George Wallace, and Ross Perot.

    Like Trump, they all possessed flamboyant, self-dramatizing personas. They tapped into genuine popular grievance toward elites, and had ascendant moments in which they caused the system to quake and intimidated conventional politicians of both parties. In every case, their movements decayed rapidly. Cults of personality in American politics are quite common. But they never live long, and Trump has offered no reason to suppose he will be an exception.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/10/trump-comeback-2024-not-happening-444135

  31. It would be interesting to calculate what Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election in 2016 were. But he did it. With even less in the way of margins than Joe Biden. 🙂

  32. Great’s latest. It’s quite good. She clearly has the Australian government in mind with this bit:

    When it comes to the immediate action we need, we are still in a state of complete denial. Creating new loopholes with empty words and creative accounting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/10/greta-thunberg-we-are-speeding-in-the-wrong-direction-on-climate-crisis

    She points out we have 7 years left before we blow the carbon budget on 1.5 degrees. But I think most of us have given up on that target already. I tend to prefer to say that we have 10 years left before we blow the budget on 2 degrees, because 10 years sounds like a time frame in which we might be able to do something useful. However, that is also probably quite hopeless. In case you missed the news, Australia is already 2 degrees hotter than average. Exactly where we will end up is a bit difficult to forecast. But it will definitely not be a good place.

  33. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    16m
    Morrison involving public servant Brendan Murphy in political comment at press conference yet again. This time on likely “success” of Govt’s amended vaccination plans. Normalising. #auspol

  34. The just-in-time government.

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    ·
    2h
    Men brought to Australia under medevac law granted visas, just as their cases were set to be heard in court.

    Migration agent Noeline Harendran represented the man and said she believed the Government issued the visa to avoid risking a loss in court.

    She said she also believed a court case would reveal the Government had no plan for the medevac refugees now in detention.

    Former independent MP and leading campaigner for the medevac law Kerryn Phelps said she hoped this meant a change in the Government’s approach.

    “I’m hoping that this is a sign that there is a new attitude to people who have been indefinitely detained,” she said.

    Dr Phelps said she hoped this was “an outbreak of reality”, referring to the current COVID-19 restrictions.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/first-asylum-seekers-medevac-law-granted-visas/12969536

  35. Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    4m
    “Voter ID”. FFS. We really are just little America.

    Why do Libs think our democracy should be ‘reformed’. If it ain’t broke…

  36. Socrates says:
    Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    beguiledagain

    My apology! It was indeed Joseph McCarthy who foreshadowed Peter Dutton’s tactics.

    That being said, I make no apology for pointing out the rank hypocrisy for somebody as opposed to the protection of equal human rights as Dutton branding another citizen in a democracy an enemy of the state.

    ————————————-
    Understandable mistake particularly since Eugene McCarthy’s middle name was Joseph.

    I remember the evil McCarthy well from the Pogo comic strip in the 1950’s where the brilliant Walt Kelly eviscerated that demagogue as Simple J. Malarkey.

    And on May 2nd, 1957, as I was driving from Norfolk, Virginia to Washington, I heard the announcement of Joe McCarthy’s death on the radio.

    The analogy with Dutton is apt and recalls the famous putdown of McCarthy by Joseph Welch the counsel for the U.S. Army in the 1954 Army-McCarthy hearings:

    “Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness … You’ve done enough. Have you no sense of decency, Sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

  37. So Morrison’s seething that he failed to get a speaking gig at this weekend’s virtual climate summit, blaming that other buffoon Johnson. Great! That will teach him that most of the rest of the world accepts climate science, opting for carbon-neutrality. And with the election of Biden, it’s only going to get worse; the smart alec photo-op with a lump of coal will come back to haunt him.

  38. Mavis @ #45 Friday, December 11th, 2020 – 7:17 am

    So Morrison’s seething that he failed to get a speaking gig at this weekend’s virtual climate summit, blaming that other buffoon Johnson. Great! That will teach him that most of the rest of the world accepts climate science, opting for carbon-neutrality. And with the election of Biden, it’s only going to get worse; the smart alec photo-op with a lump of coal will come back to haunt him.

    Does Australia have any friends left?

  39. Brexit watchers

    Für Ursula von der Leyen ist das ergebnislose Abendessen mit Boris Johnson ein Rückschlag. Sie hat sich intensiv für einen Handelsvertrag mit Großbritannien eingesetzt, muss aber jetzt wohl einsehen, dass sie die EU-Mitgliedsländer nicht zu weiteren Zugeständnissen bewegen kann, die ihn für den britischen Premier akzeptabel machen würden. Nach wie vor wird in London gerätselt, ob er überhaupt einen Vertrag will oder er seine roten Linien nur deshalb in Beton gegossen hat, um einen Deal mit der EU zu verhindern.

    https://www.dw.com/de/brexit-deal-jetzt-hilft-wohl-nur-noch-ein-wunder/a-55889297

    To paraphrase: Stepping into negotiations and accepting a dinner invite with a hard to read Johnson in order to promote a Brexit deal, was a mistake and handed EU president (von der Leyen) a rejection. She must finally see that she can’t offer further compromises. Even London can’t decide what Johnson wants. Are the red lines merely a way of forcing no deal?

    Also noteworthy is that the EU have turned away from Britain and are more interested in the 27 member nations, that is if the prominence of this story (7th) is a metric. The EU appear focussed on budgets, Poland and Hungary, covid-19, covid-19, covid-19, covid-19, and only then on Brexit.

  40. “I’m not from the Labor Right”

    ***

    The delusion is strong with this one!

    Sorry if the truth upsets you but you’re about as far to the right as it gets in Labor – you’ve got more in common with the Liberals than you do with the left (either the Greens or the Labor Left). You spend your days attacking the left, both inside and outside your party, and have an unhinged hatred of the Greens that is frankly really disturbing. You lash out at Greens like me in sheer bitterness and jealousy and seek to blame us for all of Labor’s own mistakes.

    Oh and by the way, not every post I make on this blog is about you or directed at you as you seem to think. In fact, hardly any of them are. I realise that you are absolutely obsessed with me, but let me assure you, it isn’t mutual. To me, you are just another member of the establishment flock – just another victim who lashes out at the left to make themselves feel better. I do find it rather amusing that I seem to have developed a fanclub of sorts, but really ladies, you’re just making yourselves appear more and more desperate with every post.

  41. “I’m not from the Labor Right”

    ***

    The delusion is strong with this one!

    Sorry if the truth upsets you but you’re about as far to the right as it gets in Labor – you’ve got more in common with the Liberals than you do with the left (either the Greens or the Labor Left). You spend your days attacking the left, both inside and outside your party, and have an unhinged hatred of the Greens that is frankly really disturbing. You lash out at Greens like me in sheer bitterness and jealousy and seek to blame us for all of Labor’s own mistakes.

    Oh and by the way, not every post I make on this blog is about you or directed at you as you seem to think. In fact, hardly any of them are. I realise that you are absolutely obsessed with me, but let me assure you, it isn’t mutual. To me, you are just another member of the establishment flock – another victim who lashes out at the left to make themselves feel better. I do find it rather amusing that I seem to have developed a fanclub of sorts, but really ladies, you’re just making yourselves appear more and more desperate with every post.

  42. Mavis says:
    Friday, December 11, 2020 at 10:17 am

    So Morrison’s seething that he failed to get a speaking gig at this weekend’s virtual climate summit, blaming that other buffoon Johnson. Great! That will teach him that most of the rest of the world accepts climate science, opting for carbon-neutrality. And with the election of Biden, it’s only going to get worse; the smart alec photo-op with a lump of coal will come back to haunt him.

    Perversely, this will likely only improve Morrison’s standing among the coal-minded.

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