Winding down

With the end of the year in view, I offer a Tasmanian state poll and not much else.

First up, there are two lengthy and highly substantive new post beneath this one which I like to think warrant your attention: my own review of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ newly published report of its inquiry into the 2019 election, and Adrian Beaumont’s concluding review of Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

So that the comments sections for those posts might remain on topic, I offer this post as the latest open thread. I’m not exactly sure what the imminent festive season means for the schedule of the pollsters – Newspoll might or might not have one last poll under its sleeve just before Christmas, and I’m pretty sure there will be an Essential Research next week, which should feature leadership ratings though not voting intention. We will also presumably get one of Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic aggregations at some point during the silly season.

There is one poll that slipped through my net: the latest effort on Tasmanian state voting intention from EMRS, which continues to find Premier Peter Gutwein in almost as commanding a position as Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan, the other leader for whom COVID-19 has been nothing but good news. The Liberals are credited with 52% of the vote, down two from August, with Labor up one to 25% and the Greens up one to 13%. However, Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier has narrowed from 70-23 to 61-26. The poll was conducted by telephone from November 17 to 23 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,814 comments on “Winding down”

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  1. Hopefully soon the crazies will end when coming of January, the children become adults and we shall be BORING.

    Electors certified Biden.! The so called self-appointed trump supreme court picks failed to back him.

    Barr Resigns, Rudi has Covid19.

  2. Trump and his supporters are going to do all they can to disrupt for the next four years. Trump, family and friends should rightly have plenty of investigations into the money trail, tax matters, dirty deals etc
    For the sake of protecting democracy and healing a divided nation, Biden will be asked to waive all actions against Trump and his crooked crew. And he will probably do it.
    Come the next election the GOP will stoop to even lower levels of behavior. Back will come the lies and chaos.
    Maybe the Democrats can pick up both the Georgia seats and implement some of their agenda. If not, the next term will be disappointing.

  3. citizen @ #1795 Tuesday, December 15th, 2020 – 8:19 pm

    lizzie says:
    Tuesday, December 15, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    Paul Kelly with Kieran Gilbert. Morrison has ended the year ‘politically ascendant.’

    You may not wish to watch this!!

    They’re following the same script that is used by the ‘analysts’ on Fox News – Trump has definitely won the election and Biden is a crook.

    Yes good point.
    Scrooter is definately not ‘politically ascendant’
    Albo’s hot on his heals and he’s looking desperate and weak.
    The next poll when it comes will show Labor pulling ahead and Albanese preferred PM.
    Mark Mundo’s words.

  4. Good Morning

    Things are not looking good for Sydney today.
    11:00 am we will find out how bad.

    It was good to see that Palasczcuk got praise from a Sydney resident for acting in direct contradiction to the LNP politicians on ABC News 24.

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