US election minus six days

Biden’s national lead drops to nine points, but he gains in Wisconsin, while Trump gains in Florida. Biden holds a five-point lead in Pennsylvania.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

With six days left until next Wednesday’s AEDT election, the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.9% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 42.9%). Biden’s lead has decreased by 1.0% since last week. In the key states, Biden leads by 8.5% in Wisconsin, 8.1% in Michigan, 5.2% in Pennsylvania, 3.5% in Arizona and just 1.5% in Florida.

Pennsylvania is currently clearly the “tipping-point” state that could potentially give either Biden or Trump the 270 Electoral Votes required to win the Electoral College. If Biden is only up by five in Pennsylvania while leading by nine nationally, the popular vote/Electoral College gap is nearly four points in Trump’s favour, the same as last week.

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, he would have 269 Electoral Votes, one short of the magic 270. Either Maine’s or Nebraska’s second Congressional District could in that scenario give Biden the narrowest of Electoral College wins.

In FiveThirtyEight’s aggregates, Biden also leads by 2.1% in North Carolina, 1.8% in Iowa and 1.5% in Georgia. He trails by 1.7% in Ohio and 1.8% in Texas. As I have said previously, if Biden wins all these states, he wins over 400 of the 538 Electoral Votes. The move to Trump in Florida puts it in with these states when it had previously been better for Biden.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump an 11% chance to win the Electoral College, down 2% since last week. He only has a 3% chance to win the popular vote. The slight tightening nationally and in Pennsylvania is more than offset by time running out for Trump. Trump is likely to need a much bigger polling error than in 2016.

Trump’s net job approval ratings have improved over one point since last week after dropping the previous week. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval with all polls is -10.3%, and -9.4% with polls of likely or registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden’s net favourability at +6, while Trump’s is -13.

In the FiveThirtyEight Classic Senate forecast, Democrats now have a 79% chance to win control, up 1% since last week. The most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority. Unchanged on last week’s projection. The 80% confidence range is 48 to 56 Democratic seats, also unchanged.

With the US hitting a new record of over 80,000 coronavirus cases Wednesday, coronavirus is likely to dominate the headlines in the lead-up to the election. That is unlikely to help Trump.

Poll closing times

All times given here are next Wednesday Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.

Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.

10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.

11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.

11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.

12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.

1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.

2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.

3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.

5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.

167 comments on “US election minus six days”

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  3. Joe Biden wants to jail oil executives for causing climate change.
    My question. With the police defunded, who slaps on the handcuffs?

    If you read our manifesto, you’d know that the arrests (and executions) will be done by a trained militia composed of Marxist intellectuals, internet social justice warriors and illegal immigrants. While that might not sound threatening, once the newly established Pelosi Centre for Peace confiscates all of the guns, there will be no way to resist!

  4. Yes. And we also demand the removal of the letter “l” from the English language, so no-one ever talks to us about the Republic with a straight face ever again.

    Oh, man. The middle of next week local time is a long way away …

    🙂

  5. “10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.”…

    Will Trump tweet that he won at 11am…. only to tweet that he was robbed at 5pm…?

  6. “Joe Biden wants to jail oil executives for causing climate change.”….

    Forget about climate change, a thorough investigation on their tax returns will suffice… Oh, and that includes Trump, of course!…. The police? Given the number of policemen/women involved in bashing BLM demonstrators, I am pretty confident that numbers are still not a problem!

  7. “Joe Biden wants to jail oil executives for causing climate change.”

    As usual the truth is less glamorous than social media. Biden did make an off the cuff remark in a town hall meeting back in 2018 that oil company executives should be jailed if they intentionally act to undermine environmental laws, and could be jailed for the damage they do.

    His actual policy is here. Oil company executives have been liable to be jailed if they breach environmental laws for some time, but the laws have not been enforced. Biden has said he will enforce the laws, and impose serious limits on emissions.
    https://joebiden.com/9-key-elements-of-joe-bidens-plan-for-a-clean-energy-revolution/#

  8. POTUS and Senate predictions so far are:

    Presidency

    Simon K Biden 416 Trump 122
    Frednk Biden 412 Trump 126
    Kirky Biden 306 Trump 232
    Socrates Biden 305 Trump 233
    AOC Biden 232 Trump306

    Senate
    Socrates Democrat 52 Republican 48
    Simon K 50-50
    Frednk 50-50

  9. Socrates, can you put me down for
    President: Biden 325 – 213 Trump
    Senate: Dem 51 – 49 Reps
    House: Dem 235 – 200 (Reps + others)

    Much thanks. 🙂

  14. Such a glut of polls here in the US. As stressful as this time is it’s nice to be continually updated rather than have to wait two weeks for a Newspoll.

    Interestingly, I heard Ezra Klein interview Nate Silver this morning. Silver was saying there’s a temptation among some pollsters to undersell a Biden lead when the numbers are large. If they call it Biden by 10 points and he loses then they look like fools. Thus, calling a 5 or 6 point lead is far less risky. It makes sense for pollsters wishing to protect their reputations.

    Some hope for an upset Texas win for democrats here. Still a long shot but early voting by young people in places like Austin is encouraging. I see Biden winning North Carolina and Georgia before Texas. Florida is the big prize though. If Biden wins it then the game’s up. A Blue Florida could mean we’re all in bed by midnight. A red Florida could mean delays, litigation and uncertainty that could last for days. I’d rather be Biden than Trump in Florida right now, but I’ve been burnt before.

    FWIW I’d say Biden will win the election. He’ll win back the rust belt states Hillary lost (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), he’ll win Arizona and North Carolina. And I reckon he’ll snatch Georgia as well. Florida would be a bonus but with the other wins he doesn’t need it. Texas will stay red. He’ll grab the senate too.

  16. A pretty depressing video from John Oliver just after Trump was elected. It also happened to be the last show of the 2016 season. If you’re even a casual watcher of Last Week Tonight. you’ll be aware the last show in the season they put on a “production piece” to wrap things up.

    Please do yourself a favour and watch the video all the way through to the finale piece. It really is something you… me… we need to be reminded of. That at the time the general mood around the world was that 2016 was the year from hell.

    Little did we know back then.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rSDUsMwakI

  17. This is so scary but I fear is true:

    If you want to get a taste of what American politics will be like in 2021 if Joe Biden becomes president, let me refer you to a new video put out by elected Republican officials in Idaho, objecting to state and local efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic through public health measures such as mask mandates and the closing of spaces where people congregate indoors.

    It is nothing short of a warning of rebellion.

    “We further resolve that any [public health] order issued in the future will be ignored,” says one state representative, unless it comports with their understanding of “our God-given rights.”

    Other highlights include the lieutenant governor sitting in her truck and holding up a Bible and a gun, and most chillingly, the party’s nominee for a state representative seat referring to “the fact that a pandemic may or may not be occurring.”

    …Meanwhile, a sweeping Democratic victory in 2020 would kick the demographic anxiety of white Republicans into overdrive. Trump was elected to be a bulwark against a changing America — he’d build a wall, kick out all the immigrants, ban the Muslims, grab women wherever he wanted, and let you say “Merry Christmas” again. His defeat would be the proof that progress can’t be arrested, and those who feel themselves on the losing end of change will grow more angry and desperate.

    The Idaho Republicans, like the Founding Father cosplayers of the tea party, claim devotion to the Constitution — and they believe that gives them the right to decide which laws they’ll obey and which they’ll ignore. This will be a common refrain in the coming years: President Biden and other government officials may think they have the right to tell us what to do, with their “laws” and “regulations,” but we owe obedience to a higher law (however we happen to interpret it).

    This won’t just be confined to the Facebook fever swamps. They’ll be backed up by conservative media like Fox News and by elected Republicans, both the true extremists and the opportunists, who will see which way the crazy train is rolling in their party and rush to climb aboard. Civil strife is dynamite for the ratings.

    And then there’s Trump. If he should lose, he won’t go quietly. He’ll still be there on Twitter, whining about how the election was stolen and Biden isn’t a real president (and teasing the idea of a 2024 campaign so journalists treat him as still relevant).

    Trump will continue to poison our politics, encouraging his supporters to be as angry as possible. Perhaps they’ll turn away from him and try to find a way through our next political era that isn’t drowning in bile and retains a commitment to democracy. But that doesn’t seem too likely.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/30/2021-gop-could-descend-into-lawlessness-rebellion-heres-preview/

    Batshit. Crazy.

  18. POTUS and Senate predictions so far are:

    Presidency
    Simon K Biden 416 Trump 122
    Frednk Biden 412 Trump 126
    NE Qld Biden 351 Trump 187
    Late Riser Biden 325 – 213 Trump
    Kirky Biden 306 Trump 232
    Socrates Biden 305 Trump 233
    Nervous Nellie Biden 279 – Trump 259
    AOC Biden 232 Trump306

    Senate
    Socrates Democrat 52 Republican 48
    NE Qld Dem 52 Rep 48
    Late Riser Dem 51 – 49 Reps
    Simon K 50-50
    Frednk 50-50

  21. “OMG. Quick. Lock the Farm Gate.
    ————
    A mooving story but udder nonsense. Complete bull.”

    Nevertheless, it will be milked for all its worth.

  22. I’m not sure his both sides-ing is his strong suit.
    —————
    I love him and what he is trying to say but agree with you on this.

    Superficially the Dems are playing the anti-trump card because, hey, Trump is very unpopular and they only need a swing of a percent in states that count to win. But dig deeper and they are broadly united around core values and policies and have Sanders etc in the tent and on the hustings. They do have an ideology and a vision for change but…. f’ing try to sell that to peeps who only get their facts from trump rallies, radio shock jocks, evangelical fundies, social media and, if your lucky, Fox.

    Sure, I’d LIKE Biden to sell the message more than pointing out how bad Trunp is. But I WANT Biden to win.

    As for the Trump supporters… he nails it. It is grievance and tribe, sad f’ks desperately searching for identity in a complicated world and find it in …. Trump (FFS!) and trolling libs.

    The sell comes after the win (unfortunately). And also unfortunately, I am not convinced Biden is the best salesman.

  26. Simon Katich @ #72 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 6:40 am

    I’m not sure his both sides-ing is his strong suit.
    —————
    I love him and what he is trying to say but agree with you on this.

    Superficially the Dems are playing the anti-trump card because, hey, Trump is very unpopular and they only need a swing of a percent in states that count to win. But dig deeper and they are broadly united around core values and policies and have Sanders etc in the tent and on the hustings. They do have an ideology and a vision for change but…. f’ing try to sell that to peeps who only get their facts from trump rallies, radio shock jocks, evangelical fundies, social media and, if your lucky, Fox.

    Sure, I’d LIKE Biden to sell the message more than pointing out how bad Trunp is. But I WANT Biden to win.

    As for the Trump supporters… he nails it. It is grievance and tribe, sad f’ks desperately searching for identity in a complicated world and find it in …. Trump (FFS!) and trolling libs.

    The sell comes after the win (unfortunately). And also unfortunately, I am not convinced Biden is the best salesman.

    With the possible exception of being a good candidate against Trump (because he is a lot of grey boring nothing all Trumps attacks have failed spectacularly) Biden isn’t the best anything.

  27. That Marist College poll in NC has to concern the Trump campaign. NC will count absent votes early, so if Biden is a clear winner we should know on the night… which should calm the Pa nerves.

    FWIW, Not all votes will be counted on the night. They also allow and count absent votes to arrive for some time after election day.

  28. I have been pushing Pie’s line on the US scene for months. He summed it up beautifully there. The Democrats are, in the main, a bunch of empty suits.

  30. Mick Quinlivan @ #74 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:43 am

    what do people make of 98% of those who voted in Texas in 2016 have voted prior to election date?

    It’s over 100% now.
    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html

    Over 8M of the 9M are in-person votes. At a guess Texas is angry (anti-Trump) and determined (pro-Trump). What I’ve read is that early votes will favour Biden. So the question becomes who is left to vote? I’ve only found numbers for 2016, showing 9,759,797 registered voters back then.
    https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

    If there are 10M registered voters in Texas today, there’s not many left.

  31. Trump will be outraged as Fox poll has him 8 points behind.

    Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has an 8-point lead over President Trump nationally in a new Fox News poll released Friday.

    Biden has the support of 52 percent of likely voters in the poll, while Trump trails at 44 percent. Two percent of likely voters say they’re backing a third-party candidate, and another 2 percent are undecided.

    Biden’s 8-point lead is statistically insignificant from the 10-point advantage he enjoyed in the same poll earlier this month.

    The former vice president has a net-positive favorability rating with likely voters, with 55 percent saying they have a favorable view of him and 43 percent saying they have a negative view. Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, with just 44 percent of likely voters having a favorable view of him compared with 55 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

    “Biden is holding a substantial lead nationally, many votes are already cast, and there are few undecideds,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducted the survey with Republican Daron Shaw. “It’s hard to see the national race shifting significantly in the closing days, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Trump to again thread the needle on an Electoral College victory.”

    Biden runs up wide margins among historically Democratic-leaning demographics, including a 56-39 lead among women, an 80-14 edge among Black voters and a 57-39 advantage among voters under the age of 45. Trump holds only single digit leads among men and white voters, both demographics that came out in force for him in 2016. Biden also has a 53-43 lead among seniors, a stark reversal from when older voters backed Trump four years ago.

    A small subgroup of independents back Biden by a 54-32 margin. Trump won independents by 1 point in 2016.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523722-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-nationally-poll

  39. Madame Tussauds

    BERLIN (Reuters) – The waxwork museum Madame Tussauds in Berlin loaded its effigy of TV star-turned Republican president Donald Trump into a dumpster on Friday, a move apparently intended to reflect its expectations of next Tuesday’s presidential election.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-tussauds-berlin/madame-tussauds-in-berlin-dumps-trump-before-u-s-election-idUSKBN27F2BA

    “Today’s activity is rather of a symbolic character ahead of the elections in the United States. We here at Madame Tussauds Berlin removed Donald Trump’s waxwork as a preparatory measure.”

    https://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a34533508/madame-tussauds-throws-trump-dumpster/

  40. A little more on the idea of Pence pardoning Trump.

    Yet a federal judge just decided that Trump incited violence, which under any normal circumstances would make him liable – in a civil and criminal sense – for the violence that he caused. This ruling could set precedent for the kinds of legal penalties Trump will start to face if he loses the election.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/federal-judge-rules-donald-trumps-tweets-incited-violence/33566/

    Mosman, ruling from the bench at a hearing Friday, said he couldn’t ignore the tweets, and remarked how odd and new it is for a court to be asked to examine Twitter messages to determine the intent of the executive branch. “Still there they are, and I don’t feel I’m at liberty to just sort of wave them away,” the judge said. “And so taking them into account, I think they satisfy the requirement of a substantial risk of future harm.”

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/judge-cites-trump-tweets-restricting-feds-protests-73932793

  46. OK, despite me not being confident of final numbers (other than it being a Biden win), I will roll the dice and lock in some predictions:

    1. Biden wins 357-181 (referring to the result, not any potential faithless electors during the actual EC vote)
    2. Dems win the Senate 53-47 (the 53 includes Angus King and Bernie Sanders)
    3. Dems gain in the House 242-193 (I’m spitballing here, as I haven’t been following the House that closely. I don’t know how many state delegations will flip, lest we get into contingent election territory.)

    The above presumes a fair enough election to get a valid result. If the fears that heavy anti-democratic shenanigans on the streets, at the ballot box or in the courts become reality, obviously the above is invalidated.

  48. a r @ #97 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    With 538 now on 90 / 10 I’m willing to allow some slight optimism. Still closer than I’d like though.

    We get one roll of this dice every 4 years. Right now the dice is shaping up to have Trump’s face on one side in every 10. Or if that’s a difficult analogy, how about picking a card. The deck has Aces through 10s. Pick the Ace and Trump wins.

  49. a r @ #97 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    With 538 now on 90 / 10 I’m willing to allow some slight optimism. Still closer than I’d like though.

    I won’t be optimistic until this crap has gone through the system and been resolved:

    In Nevada, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit this week seeking images of the signature of every registered voter in Democratic-leaning Clark County — a potential first step toward challenging individual votes on grounds that the signed ballots don’t match the signatures on file.

    In Texas, Republican officeholders and candidates sued this week to have more than 100,000 votes invalidated in the Houston area because they were cast at drive-through voting centers the GOP has asked a judge to declare illegal.

    And in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, election officials will set aside any mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day — even if they were mailed before the polls closed — to facilitate potential court challenges.

    For months, Republicans have pushed largely unsuccessfully to limit new avenues for voting in the midst of the pandemic. But with next week’s election rapidly approaching, they have shifted their legal strategy in recent days to focus on tactics aimed at challenging ballots one by one, in some cases seeking to discard votes already cast during a swell of early voting.

    “It’s not just the rules anymore,” said Myrna Pérez, director of the Voting Rights and Elections Program at the nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice. “It’s individual voters.”

    Republicans said they are just trying to make sure the process runs smoothly and the rules are applied fairly, arguing that Democrats have loosened election rules in ways that could confuse voters and invite fraud.

    “We have volunteers, attorneys and staff in place to ensure that election officials are following the law and counting every lawful ballot,” Justin Riemer, chief counsel for the Republican National Committee, said Friday. “If election officials aren’t providing transparency that the law demands or we are unable to resolve disputes over certain ballots or procedures, then we will litigate as necessary.”

    But Democrats said there is no evidence that expanded mail balloting and other pandemic-related changes lead to fraud. They accused Republicans of targeting valid votes in Democratic strongholds in a blatant bid to gain an electoral advantage.

    “The other side has given every indication that they will challenge every ballot they can, at every step of the process,” said Chad Dunn, general counsel for the Texas Democratic Party and co-founder of the UCLA Voting Rights Project.

    “The mask is off. This isn’t about rooting out any mythical voter fraud. It never was,” Dunn said. “This is about raw power and obtaining power by any means necessary.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-shift-2020-legal-strategy/2020/10/30/339a3054-1a24-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html

  50. Late Riser @ #98 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 5:01 pm

    a r @ #97 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    With 538 now on 90 / 10 I’m willing to allow some slight optimism. Still closer than I’d like though.

    We get one roll of this dice every 4 years. Right now the dice is shaping up to have Trump’s face on one side in every 10. Or if that’s a difficult analogy, how about picking a card. The deck has Aces through 10s. Pick the Ace and Trump wins.

    Only because Trump hides the ace up his sleeve.

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