Essential Research budget expectations polling

Mixed messages on the imminent federal budget, plus polling from WA on border closures and secession.

The most interesting poll of the day is YouGov’s Queensland state poll, which you can read about here, but we do also have some results from the fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian, focusing on expectations for the budget. Fifty-one per cent of respondents expected it would benefit the well off and 30% expected it would benefit those on low incomes, but only 25% thought it would benefit them personally. Thirty-five per cent expected it would be good for the economy compared with 31% for bad.

More interestingly, 78% signed on to the proposition that now was a good time to “explore new ways to run the economy”, with only 22% opposed. Sixty-nine per cent favoured “direct investment by government in job creation and in projects with the objective of improving living standards” when it was offered as an alternative to “deregulation to encourage employment and tax cuts for wealthy Australians”, which some may consider a false binary. The full report should be out later today.

In other poll news, The West Australian has been dealing out further results from the poll of 3500 respondents that recorded a 16% swing on state voting intention to Labor – remembering that this was a poll of five selected marginal seats, and not of the entire state. The poll found support for Western Australia’s hard border at 77% with 14% opposed, and support for secession at 28% and opposition at 55%, with 17% somehow unclear of their opinion.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research poll are available on the website, although there isn’t the usual PDF file at this point. Regular questions on COVID-19 suggest a softening of concern over the past fortnight, with very concerned down six to 30%, quite concerned up seven to 52%, not that concerned steady on 15% and not at all concerned down one to 4%. Perceptions of government performance in response are little changed, with the federal government on 60% good (down one) and 18% poor (steady), and good ratings for state governments on 65% in New South Wales (down two), 45% in Victoria (down two) 69% in Queensland (up one), 83% in Western Australia (down one) and 81% in South Australia (steady), with due regard to the small sub-sample sizes here.

UPDATE 2: PDF file here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research budget expectations polling”

Comments Page 37 of 38
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  2. “…Aside from that one light moment with Bergin, Packer’s demeanour throughout his evidence was that of someone exhausted by his lot in life.”

    Did he have one of the usual props used by “colourful” characters under interrogation, e.g. an oxygen cylinder and mask?

  3. ” Almost 31 per cent will be less than $25 a week better offer, 32.1 per cent will be between $25 and $75 a week in front while 10.7 per cent of people will gain more than $75 a week.”

    What do the other 26.2% get?

  4. On the topic of why Peta Credlin, a rightwing hack, feels she can turn up to Dan Andrews’ media briefings and ask questions, I assume she is an accredited journalist, if she works for Sky After Dark. I was an accredited journalist right from my first fourth estate gig, on a now-defunct leftwing weekly. I retired from the trade working on a Fairfax (now Channel 9) local weekly.
    Even when I worked for a journal openly committed to the goal of replacing capitalism, I still sought to be as fair and as accurate as possible; even contacting Coalition politicians for comment.
    I feel it is acceptable for a journalist to take a certain political position, particularly if they are largely into commentary and analysis, rather than straight reporting. However, any journalist, no matter what their position, still has an obligation to be fair and accurate.
    That means not making stuff up and giving everyone concerned the right of reply. From what I see of Sky news, they fail abysmally in this regard.

  5. I noticed that the tax cut for the average wage earner amounts to an extra $20.78 (rounded to $20.80) per week. Whereas, the child-care subsidy, as proposed by Albanese last night, is more than a little more. That’s why his proposal will resonate with middle Australia. Labor’s on a bit of a roll: retained Enden Monora, won in the NT, will most likely win on October, 31;
    will win in the ACT, will win in New Zealand on October, 19, and if an election were to be held tomorrow, Johnson would be cactus. Oh, and not forgetting Trump who will lose in landslide proportions – despite the nellies on this site arguing the contrary.

  6. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1804 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 7:56 pm

    On the topic of why Peta Credlin, a rightwing hack, feels she can turn up to Dan Andrews’ media briefings and ask questions, I assume she is an accredited journalist, if she works for Sky After Dark. I was an accredited journalist right from my first fourth estate gig, on a now-defunct leftwing weekly. I retired from the trade working on a Fairfax (now Channel 9) local weekly.
    Even when I worked for a journal openly committed to the goal of replacing capitalism, I still sought to be as fair and as accurate as possible; even contacting Coalition politicians for comment.
    I feel it is acceptable for a journalist to take a certain political position, particularly if they are largely into commentary and analysis, rather than straight reporting. However, any journalist, no matter what their position, still has an obligation to be fair and accurate.
    That means not making stuff up and giving everyone concerned the right of reply. From what I see of Sky news, they fail abysmally in this regard.

    Don’t watch, don’t read, don’t click.

  8. Steve777 what is the point of that? Not unlike a pollbludger committee being formed to review the fitness for office of Scott Morrison I would think.

  9. Mavis @ #1805 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 7:58 pm

    Oh, and not forgetting Trump who will lose in landslide proportions – despite the nellies on this site arguing the contrary.

    No-one doubts that Trump will lose the election … the question is whether that will be sufficient to remove him from office.

    That is still looking very doubtful. The electoral system in the USA is badly broken 🙁

  10. Steve777:

    Friday, October 9, 2020 at 8:02 pm

    You no doubt know, such a proposal is ultra vires of the Dems. All Pelosi’s doing is to get under Trump’s dermis.

  11. Lars –

    The Speaker is doing her job. Donald Trump is suffering from a serious illness. He is showing signs of dangerous instability and mental incapacity. An Australian PM who said and acted the way Trump has been doing would be quickly replaced by his party colleagues.

    The Democrats are invoking Constitutional provisions to deal with a dangerous situation.

  12. “Steve777 says:
    Friday, October 9, 2020 at 7:53 pm
    ” Almost 31 per cent will be less than $25 a week better offer, 32.1 per cent will be between $25 and $75 a week in front while 10.7 per cent of people will gain more than $75 a week.”
    What do the other 26.2% get?”

    A “How to put together cubbies and chicken coops” set of instructions from Bunnings? Plus a recipe for Indian curries if you behave nicely?

  13. Player One:

    Friday, October 9, 2020 at 8:29 pm

    [‘That is still looking very doubtful. The electoral system in the USA is badly broken ‘]

    Believe me, when I say it, there’s nothing – even a partisan Supreme Court – that will save Trump. He’s gone, he knows it, the vast majority of Americans know it. As has happened, day by day, the electorate will be drip-fed by with more scandals, until even some of his most ardent supporters will give him the flick. The most recent poll puts Trump’s support among males as for 48%, Biden, 46%; females, 63% for Biden. Who would you back?

  14. Mavis @ #1813 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 8:49 pm

    Player One:

    Friday, October 9, 2020 at 8:29 pm

    [‘That is still looking very doubtful. The electoral system in the USA is badly broken ‘]

    Believe me, when I say it, there’s nothing – even a partisan Supreme Court – that will save Trump. He’s gone, he knows it, the vast majority of Americans know it. As has happened, day by day, the electorate will be drip-fed by with more scandals, until even some of his most ardent supporters will give him the flick. The most recent poll puts Trump’s support among males as for 48%, Biden, 46%; females, 63% for Biden. Who would you back?

    Whomever turns up on the day!

  15. Steve777 @ #1807 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 7:02 pm

    May have been linked earlier – Democrats plan to create commission to review president’s fitness for office as speaker warns of ‘disassociation from reality’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/nancy-pelosi-donald-trump-25th-amendment-removal

    I laughed when I got to this bit.

    Trump “is, shall we say, in an altered state right now” and “the disassociation from reality would be funny if it weren’t so deadly,” the 80-year-old speaker added while wearing a mask. Trump reacted angrily to Pelosi’s manoeuvre, tweeting: “Crazy Nancy is the one who should be under observation. They don’t call her Crazy for nothing!”

    The accusation: “He’s lost it.”
    The response: “No I’m not! She is!”

  16. OH and I voted today in the ACT election. Voting is over three weeks using computer entry at 15 early voting centres, plus the usual booths at schools on 17 October. The ACT electoral commission estimates around 80% of votes will be lodged before then. Computerised early voting should allow likely winners to be known not long after polling closes.

    All the covid precautions were in place today. I really feel sorry for Americans who will not have the opportunity for easy, free and fair voting like we have just experienced.

  19. Phillip Adams
    @PhillipAdams_1
    ·
    11h
    I knew James Packer when he was ‘young Jamie’.Thanks to protective mum Ros a gentle polite child.Then Kerry imported corporate thug Al ‘Chainsaw’ Dunlap (aka. ‘Rambo in pinstripes’) to“toughen him up”- Kerry’s exact words.That destroyed the kid-just as Frank had destroyed Kerry.

    Very sad.

  22. Rex Douglas
    Read ‘The Rise and Rise of Kerry Packer”. Frank was an utter pig. I had hopes for James as each generation seemed to be getting more ‘human’ .

  25. Davidwh
    Given how bad his dad and grandfather were I thought him quite an improvement 🙂 . When I read it James was a whippersnapper , so my guess at the time was James’s generation should see ‘humanity’ arrive in the Packer clan .

  27. davidh:

    Dunlap was brought in to sort out some KP problems as much as to harden up James. Particularly fourex problems.

    The late “Chainsaw” Al Dunlap was a corporate crook whose tenure led inexorably to involuntary bankruptcy of Sunbeam

    Mr Dunlap’s malfeasance was slightly innovative in that he contrived to overstate prior year losses to generate the impression of a turnaround – the result was that he (temporarily) gained a reputation as a “turnaround king” and “problem solver”. Eventually it was determined that his real talent was solving “phantom” problems, with the side effect of creating real and terminal problems, principally by sending financing costs through the roof: Dunlap firms could not access financing as Dunlap’s tenure had destroyed confidence in their accounts.

    Not entirely clear why Mr Packer needed his “assistance”

  28. Poor Peta Credlin. She’s gone from being Australia’s most powerful woman to being the sub who gets called in when a junior reporter goes on leave.

  29. E. G. Theodore @ #1827 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 9:38 pm

    davidh:

    Dunlap was brought in to sort out some KP problems as much as to harden up James. Particularly fourex problems.

    The late “Chainsaw” Al Dunlap was a corporate crook whose tenure led inexorably to involuntary bankruptcy of Sunbeam

    Mr Dunlap’s malfeasance was slightly innovative in that he contrived to overstate prior year losses to generate the impression of a turnaround – the result was that he (temporarily) gained a reputation as a “turnaround king” and “problem solver”. Eventually it was determined that his real talent was solving “phantom” problems, with the side effect of creating real and terminal problems, principally by sending financing costs through the roof: Dunlap firms could not access financing as Dunlap’s tenure had destroyed confidence in their accounts.

    Not entirely clear why Mr Packer needed his “assistance”

    Kerry needed to shed a truck load of costs and hangers on that he had accrued.

    Dunlap’s job was to deliver the bad news.

  30. E. G. Theodore
    I remember back in the day reading an article which looked at the companies that Al had ‘sorted out’ . Turns out that after Al left, with all the fat ‘performance’ bonuses of course, things tended to turn shite.

  33. poroti

    “ Turns out that after Al left, with all the fat ‘performance’ bonuses of course, things tended to turn shite.”
    ———
    The very definition of neo-liberal carpet-bagging.

  35. After a tumultuous week of coronavirus diagnoses and Twitter outbursts, Donald Trump has once again missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize.

    The prestigious accolade arrived in a year dominated by a global pandemic, conflict and uncertainty, with the World Health Organisation (WHO), teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg and New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern among the favourites to take out the award.

    The US President was nominated for the third time since entering office, over the “historic” deal his administration brokered between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

    “For his merit, I think he has done more trying to create peace between nations than most other Peace Prize nominees,” Norwegian politician Christian Tybring-Gjedde, who nominated Mr Trump, told Fox News.

  36. On the US elections, i hope democratic countries are sending independent observers to try to ensure electoral corruption is kept to a manageable level.

  37. The Packer Empire owed much to one E G Theodore and his contacts at the AWU. This was the initial expansion of the Packer newspaper empire. Of course Packer, Theodore and one John Wren together owned a gold mine in Fiji. I wonder if there has ever been a study done on workers in that place.

  38. Rakali
    At the time it was quite the fashion.Peasant comes in sacks half the staff , share price shoots up, peasant collects millions,peasant fecks off. Loved by Directors of course as they also collected a motza from share price bonuses.

  39. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_J._Dunlap

    Dunlap is on the lists of “Worst CEOs of All Time” published by several business publications. Fast Company noted that Dunlap “might score impressively on the Corporate Psychopathy checklist” and in an interview, Dunlap freely admitted to possessing many of the traits of a psychopath, but considered them positive traits such as leadership and decisiveness.

  40. In the dying years of the Soviet Union Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote…

    In our country, the lie has become not just a moral category but a pillar of the state.” —

    Starting to sound a bit too close to how it be in a number of places in ‘The West” these days .

  41. poroti @ #1840 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 10:19 pm

    In the dying years of the Soviet Union Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote…

    In our country, the lie has become not just a moral category but a pillar of the state.” —

    Starting to sound a bit too close to how it be in a number of places in ‘The West” these days .

    Plus its never changed in russia particularly under Putin.

    A Gangster economy with nucs. Em Tasol!

  42. As a taxpayer with an income in the mid $40,000’s I understand I will get a tax reduction of $1,080 or $20.77 per week. Is this on top of the rebate of $1,000 which I have received for the last two years. My understanding was that refund was for only two years. If the rebate is to be stopped as far as I can see my saving will be 2/3 of sweet FA.

  44. Davidwh @ #1832 Friday, October 9th, 2020 – 9:45 pm

    EGT KP preferred to hire people to carry out the hard stuff like retrenching and restructuring.

    But they couldn’t take their money with them and james packer is a total mess.

    Pathetic really. Every advantage in life and still a total loser.

    No inner strength no resilience. But lawyers trying to protect a life in shambles.

    Pathetic doesn’t even begin to start to describe it.

    SS Packer is still headed for ice bergs or rocks.

    Yet – Why not become a human and do some good ?

    Really decent good ?

    Might even be the making of him.

    He could do so and still have heaps.

  45. gnath:

    The Packer Empire owed much to one E G Theodore and his contacts at the AWU. This was the initial expansion of the Packer newspaper empire. Of course Packer, Theodore and one John Wren together owned a gold mine in Fiji. I wonder if there has ever been a study done on workers in that place.

    Theodore lived in Fiji and operated the mine; additionally he was the founder (with Bill Mccormack) of the AWA, which became the Queensland branch of the AWU.

    He had considerable experience working in mines – in WA, at Broken Hill (where he experienced relatively strong cooperation between workers and management, particularly in relation to safety) then moved to Queensland, where he was injured (in fact permanently) in an underground mine shaft collapse. He went to the mine owner with a plan to improve safety and various other conditions and got told to go away and come back only when he was serious. Instead he went to the pub and with McCormack founded the AWA. The AWA turned out to be highly effective and when it merged with the AWU it retained its organisational structure as the QLD branch. This led to the election of the Ryan government (the first Labor majority) in 1915, and Labor domination (with only one interruption, the three year government of Moore) of QLD politics until 1957.

    The mines in Fiji were very well organised (safety, worker’s compensation, medical benefits) in comparison to the standards of the day. The company town had a hospital ands (apparently) had a golf course for the miners’ use (and of Taylormade can tell us all how important golf is!). One of Theodore’s main innovations was in overcoming the (racist) falsehood that local Fijians lacked the ability to be miners – this was critical in the mine being viable.

    Clyde Cameron had a bit to say about “The World” and newspapers associated with the Labor party.

    Theodore was a very complex fellow, rasther like Paul Keating (though far more actively involved in mines than Keating was with pigerries!). It would be very interesting were Keating to write a biography of him (which is something he might do).

  46. dave:

    james packer is a total mess.

    So it would seem; this is more likely the result of failing to overcome the various perils arising from inherited wealth than of any particular treatment by Kerry Packer (though that treatment was objectively bad).

    A major bright spot for him is that both his former wives continue to support him.

  47. Kind of ironic though that a print works established by the AWU went on to be the seed that led to the creation of Frank Packers’ Empire.

  48. E. G. Theodoresays:
    Friday, October 9, 2020 at 11:03 pm
    gnath:

    The mines in Fiji were very well organised (safety, worker’s compensation, medical benefits) in comparison to the standards of the day
    _________________
    Is it true that the Fijians weren’t even paid for their labour? Kind of ridiculous to talk about safety, workers compensation (what is that without wages?) and medical benefits. Clearly the operations were exploitative to the extreme.

  49. I can see why her show used to have Hanson on all the time:

    Samantha Armytage
    @sam_armytage
    Thank god for journos like #petaCredlin
    Raising hands
    2:51 PM · Oct 9, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    At first I thought she was being sarcastic, then I realised she was probably serious.

  50. The Spectator Index
    @spectatorindex
    ·
    1h
    POLL: Florida, US Presidential election

    Trump: 46%
    Biden: 43%

    (FOX 35/InsiderAdvantage)

    For Fox poll – that’s bad.

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