Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate

Early manoeuvres for a Liberal vacancy in a looming federal by-election, and a preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate seat set for November 7.

With Newspoll and Essential Research both having said their piece this week, there is likely to be a fortnight gap between federal polls. Not counting state and territory election action, which you can be assured you will be hearing more about shortly, there are two important preselections on the boil on the conservative side of politics:

• A situation is vacant for the Liberals in the Toowoomba-based federal seat of Groom following last week’s resignation announcement from John McVeigh, the member since 2016. In a column for the Brisbane Times, former Newman government minister and current 4BC presenter Scott Emerson says the vacancy presents an opportunity to head off a stoush over the order of the next Senate ticket between James McGrath and Amanda Stoker. The winner of this fight will get top position while the loser must settle for third, second being reserved for the Nationals. Emerson reports that this amounts to a battle between moderates and the Christian Right, of which McGrath is apparently one of the former. The suggestion is that Groom might give McGrath an opening, but in this he could face opposition from locals who support the claim of Toowoomba councillor Rebecca Vonhoff. Suggestions the seat might be of interest to another Senator, Matt Canavan, are complicated by the fact that he is a National, the sensitivity of which was illustrated when the LNP organisation blocked an attempt by the seat’s previous member, Ian Macfarlane, to jump ship from Liberal to the Nationals in 2015.

Nathan Hondros of WAToday reports the Liberals will hold their preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Western Australian Senate vacancy on November 7, with the winner to take third position on the party’s ticket at the next election behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith. There would appear to be three nominees: Julian Ambrose, stepson of the late Perth construction billionaire Len Buckeridge; Sherry Sufi, an arch-conservative party activist; and Albert Jacob, former state Environment Minister and current mayor of Joondalup, who emerged as a “last-minute nomination”. Jacob held the coastal northern suburbs seat of Ocean Reef from 2008 to 2017, when he was defeated in the landslide the tipped the Barnett government from office. Cormann is reportedly lobbying for Ambrose, and his backers are pressuring Sufi to withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,450 comments on “Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate”

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  1. ‘Your families, descendents and indeed all future Australians will no doubt bow down in wonder at how a small rabble of laborites committed so much of their life and time to such significant endeavours.’

    I’m overwhelmed at the amount of influence a small handful of posters on a relatively obscure (sorry William) blog has not only on present events but on the whole future of the world.

    I breathlessly await the countless biographies of posters here, to be published in the dystopian future, rightly sheeting home the blame for all society’s future woes upon us.

    We must do better, comrades! The future of the humanity depends upon your next PB utterance!!

  2. Victoria @ #2250 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 12:47 pm

    Lizzie

    The article you linked by Richard Denniss is the first sensible piece I have seen in the media.

    Would be good for the federal Labor team to have a good read of it and maybe just maybe come out to bat for Victoria for a bloody change.

    This paragraph hits the nail on the head:

    Back in March, as Australia grappled with the first lockdown, there was a strong sense that we “are all in this together”. But from the moment Covid-19 began to spread in a Victorian meatworks, and then from a poorly conceived hotel quarantine system, the partisan and personal attacks on the Victorian premier have been savage and sustained, and inconsistent and illogical.

    S1 and S2, especially: Savage Rachel and Savage Sumaiya.

  3. I’ve been on a video chat with some family and they too are very disappointed with Albo and co.
    So much so. They are thinking of supporting the Greens at the federal level. GULP

  4. Quoll
    Not sure how you reached that conclusion from me pointing out that corporation tax is based on profit and not income or revenue.

    If you want to criticise someone for not paying tax then at least get the basics right first.

  5. C@t

    It has been relentless and illogical cos it is a very highly contagious virus and NSW in particular got lucky despite some other posters who seem to think it was superior infection control.

    And to repeat myself. What does the federal Labor Team think about Morrisons latest brain fat that we allow future returnees to self isolate. Whilst opening up the state borders.
    It is frickin mind boggling.

  6. Vic,
    I’m buggered if I know what federal Labor think is a good thing to be doing right now. All I can say is that on a Zoom book launch the other day Albanese said he’s not going to be an Opposition Leader like Tony Abbott. Maybe he’s trying the Joe Biden model?

  7. Speaking of Tony Abbott, he’s still being mischievous, misleading and malevolent:

    The claim
    Critics of Victoria’s COVID-19 lockdown have argued the rules are too strict, reaping benefits insufficient to justify the freedoms lost.

    On September 1, 2020, during a speech in London, former prime minister Tony Abbott labelled Victoria a “health dictatorship” and called for restrictions to be eased to afford people more personal responsibility.

    Mr Abbott then said the Victorian Government’s “extraordinary ineptitude” in managing its hotel quarantine system had produced the biggest outbreak in Australia so far, “responded to with the most severe lockdown tried anywhere in the world outside of Wuhan itself”.

    So, barring Wuhan, China, is Victoria’s lockdown the toughest attempted anywhere in the world?

    The verdict
    Mr Abbott’s claim is wrong.

    Many governments adopted individual policies similar to Victoria’s such as curfews and stay-home orders.

    Some rules were even stricter. For example, Spain and Argentina banned outdoor exercise entirely while Israel limited walks to within 100 metres of home.

    Meanwhile, Chile allowed only twice-weekly shop visits, and both South Africa and India banned the sale of alcohol.

    And whereas New Zealand prohibited takeaway food and drinks, Victorians could at least still visit their local cafe to pick up a coffee.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-01/fact-check-was-victorias-lockdown-most-severe-oustide-wuhan/12690432

  8. Quoll,
    There is certainly a case for basing some portion of company and individual tax burden on revenue, not just net profit (GST was meant to be a solution to this-but has too many holes) The MRRT was another attempt at this.
    Deductions are industry of their own

  9. In Albo’s defense there isn’t much an opposition can do except to play the Tim Smith routine of complaining about everything or to just play to ones own strengths.

  10. Also, the Tories in England are thinking about adopting another one of Abbott’s policies:

    Paul Lewis
    @PaulLewis
    ·
    9h
    Exclusive: the government is considering the option of sending asylum seekers to ‘processing centres’ in Moldova, Morocco and Papua New Guinea. Foreign office officials pushing back. And this isn’t Priti Patel’s idea. It is coming direct from Downing St.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/30/australian-style-offshore-asylum-plan-driven-by-no-10

    I think the Mad Monk believes he’s running the UK government now. Probably is.

  11. C@t

    My own family and including the extended family I mentioned above, all live in Melbourne.

    We have keenly felt the lack of support from federal Labor over the past three months.
    This is a global pandemic and the fiberals and the media have made it about Victoria and their supposed failures.
    Albo and co did not spend any amount of time supporting us.
    Dont care to know why. Just know that it has been keenly felt. And my support for federal Labor has definitely gone very lukewarm as well.

    Victoria accounts for 25 percent of the Australian economy.
    Albo should not forget that

  12. Abbott should stay in the UK. Covid is about to go off again there and boJo is confirming to one and all that he is the emperor without clothes as well.

  13. Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    On 1 September there were 2,352 active coronavirus cases in Victoria.

    Today there are 289.

    The strategy is working – and that’s all down to you.
    1:01 PM · Oct 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

  14. Zwaktyld
    I worked for a multinational that boasted of having made a profit only about twice in 80+ years. The fave way I saw for them appearing “unprofitable” was that local branches had to buy ,at full price, supplies/materials from our overseas branches in low tax countries. Amazingly our direct rivals in Australia could and did buy from our company at lower prices than we could. No matter how ‘legal’ it is rotten and stinks as far as i am concerned.

  15. Mavis
    Have the Obeids paid the legal costs?
    I thought they had a philosophical objection to paying
    It was Moses attempt to declare bankruptcy when faced with a judgement that brought the whole facade down

  16. zoomster @ #2251 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 12:47 pm

    We must do better, comrades! The future of the humanity depends upon your next PB utterance!!

    From the sheer amount of repetition of the same talking points by some on here – most notably the gibbons – it seems some may well believe that. If not the future of humanity, then at least the future of their faction 🙁

  17. This chart shows Aus.,China,NZ and Italy . Italy and NZ’s first lock down made China’s look ‘soft’. You can select any country you want for comparisons.
    ………………………………………………….
    COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index

    This is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures,workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region.
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&time=2020-01-22..latest&country=NZL~AUS~CHN~ITA

  18. Agreed poroti,
    BHP and Rio selling Iron Ore at low prices to Singapore based subsiduaries, who on-sell it at the true market rate is another example of corporate shenanigans designed to reduce to total tax paid

  19. Zwaktyld says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    Agreed poroti,
    BHP and Rio selling Iron Ore at low prices to Singapore based subsiduaries, who on-sell it at the true market rate is another example of corporate shenanigans designed to reduce to total tax paid
    —————————————
    That would be a bigger issue and more in need of addressing than whether corporation tax is based on income or profit because the tax system is designed to create certain economic outcomes.

  20. I had missed the covid news today here in Melbourne.

    Y0u can see why it is kinda frustrating

    Benita Kolovos Tiger face
    @benitakolovos
    ·
    2h
    Eight cases have now been linked to the fresh food section at Chadstone. A worker at a butcher there worked while contagious between September 23 and 26 and used public toilets in the vicinity. Anyone with symptoms urged to get tested.

  21. Victoria @ #2276 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 1:36 pm

    I had missed the covid news today here in Melbourne.

    Y0u can see why it is kinda frustrating

    Benita Kolovos Tiger face
    @benitakolovos
    ·
    2h
    Eight cases have now been linked to the fresh food section at Chadstone. A worker at a butcher there worked while contagious between September 23 and 26 and used public toilets in the vicinity. Anyone with symptoms urged to get tested.

    Why do they keep on doing it!?! Victoria has Pandemic Leave Pay. Coles has Sick Leave!

  22. Oakeshott country:

    Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 1:09 pm

    [‘Have the Obeids paid the legal costs?’]

    No. The costs’ decision was only handed down on Tuesday. They have been ordered ‘to pay $5,071,475 (with interest yet to be calculated) to cover the legal bills of ICAC, former commissioner David Ipp, QC, former counsel assisting the commission, Sydney barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, and two ICAC officers.’ In addition, they’ve got to pay the costs of an abortive attempt to seek leave in the HC to appeal the decision of Hammerschlag, J who dismissed the case in September 2016. That the costs’ decision has taken four years would be based on the Obeids’ appeal to the HC against the decision of the judge at first instance, who found it lacked any merit whatsoever, resulting in indemnity costs being awarded.

  23. Today in Trump Lies, America Dies (otherwise known as Trump’s election rallies):

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    The Trump Superspreader Tour 2020 is in Duluth, Minnesota, tonight. Follow for a video thread.

    “Now I understand he’s canceling the debates” — Trump is just totally making stuff up. Biden has not canceled either of the two remaining debates.

    “What are they gonna do when in 8, 12, maybe 16 years I say, ‘let’s hang it up’? 16 more years.” — Trump muses about serving four more terms

    “Mexico is paying for it. You do know that, right? They keep saying — t is going to be a border charge at the border.” — this is a lie. Mexico is not paying for Trump’s border wall.

    Trump mocks Biden for taking public health precautions to prevent his campaign events from becoming coronavirus superspreader events.

    “A man came up to me. A tough man. A man who — a worker, a construction worker. Real worker, and he looked at me — this is two years ago — he said, ‘Sir, you have given us back our life.’ And he was crying.” — Trump

    This stuff that Trump is saying taking credit for “opening up the Iron Range” is completely made up. He’s celebrating an event that didn’t happen.

    “Biden will turn Minnesota into a refugee camp” — Speaking in a state with one of the largest Somali populations in the country, Trump goads his fans into booing refugees, prompting “lock her up!” chants directed at Ilhan Omar

    “I’m not doing well in the suburbs. Are you people crazy” — Trump

    LOL — Trump claims (absurdly) that Biden will destroy the suburbs by “abolishing single-family zoning”

    “They covered one story, it was about rain … these people are sick” — Trump tells a story about how he watched NBC News with Melania looking for coverage of his Nobel nominations, but instead they were covering a hurricane in Florida. This is supposed to be an attack on NBC.

    “But if we don’t win, I’m never calling you great again” — Trump’s closing pitch to voters in Duluth, MN

    Fact check: The unemployment rate in Minnesota has increased by about 50 percent since Trump took office

    Video here (if you want to fry your brain):

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1311472673420181504

  24. Why do they keep on doing it!?! Victoria has Pandemic Leave Pay. Coles has Sick Leave!

    “Worked while contagious” is not necessarily the same thing as “worked after being advised of a positive test” or even “worked while obviously symptomatic”.

  25. caf @ #2281 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 1:51 pm

    Why do they keep on doing it!?! Victoria has Pandemic Leave Pay. Coles has Sick Leave!

    “Worked while contagious” is not necessarily the same thing as “worked after being advised of a positive test” or even “worked while obviously symptomatic”.

    Would he not have noticed a change in taste and smell, or a temperature increase (2 of the earliest obvious symptoms)?

    Though I grant you he may not have had any detectable symptoms.

  26. C@t

    I dont know if the person who worked whilst contagious, initially had any symptoms

    The point for me that despite mask wearing, distancing and hygienic practices, people around the person became infected.

    Meanwhile for example the infected taxi driver in NSW didnt infect another person

    Is covid more contagious here in Melbourne or something?

  27. Victoria @ #2284 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 2:03 pm

    C@t

    I dont know if the person who worked whilst contagious, initially had any symptoms

    The point for me that despite mask wearing, distancing and hygienic practices, people around the person became infected.

    Meanwhile for example the infected taxi driver in NSW didnt infect another person

    Is covid more contagious here in Melbourne or something?

    That’s a very good question. I don’t know the answer.

  28. Ha, ha. One of the baby Tory shills on ABC 24 was in the middle of his Andrews bashing report, something went wrong and he dropped the F bomb on air.

  29. Fox News just called renewable energy “socialism.”

    ———

    Haha, does that make fossil fuels “fascism” and, i suppose, within that coal would be “nazism”!

  30. Victoria
    A bit of a luck of the draw. This article is from back in May but the observation has continued to hold true. They probably have a better idea as to “why is it so ?” by now.
    .
    .
    Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?

    ……Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”………………………….Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

    That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic,
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

  31. Oakeshott Country:

    Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    [‘If I was Justice Yip I wouldn’t be making plans on how to spend the money’]

    The costs of the proceeding will go to the NSW coffers. I also omitted to say that the matter would’ve first gone to the Court of Appeal, thence an application to the HC. I think that the Obeids are at least asset-rich – warrant of seizure and sale of real and/or personal property.

  32. These are interesting findings re initial presenting symptoms of COVID-19, especially wrt Australia:

    Researchers from the University of South California (USC) published a paper in mid-August outlining evidence that if you are going to get COVID-19 with symptoms of a fever, it will likely be your initial indicator.

    However, most cases in Australia do not have this symptom.

    The paper, published in the Frontiers in Public Health journal, was based on the symptoms of more than 55,000 confirmed cases.

    Only about 20 per cent of new Australian coronavirus cases are presenting with signs of fever according to the latest epidemiological data from the COVID-19 National Incident Room Surveillance Team, looking at cases until August 30.

    Robert Booy, an infectious diseases paediatrician who is the head of clinical research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance, told the ABC that a fever combined with dry cough was a greater indicator of COVID-19.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-30/what-are-the-coronavirus-symptoms-should-i-get-a-covid-19-test/12714302

  33. Fascinating…

    On MSNBC, three Trump ex-insiders – Anthony Scaramucci (briefly WH Media Director), Michael Cohen (Trump’s lawyer and fixer), and Tony Schwarz (author of Art Of The Deal) – discuss what fascinated them about the Trump Dream, and what (now) disgusts them.

    As far as I can see they are being excruciatingly honest.

    https://youtu.be/x4dpn0b2KJo

    Michael Cohen on his own, talking about “the Trump Organization”… “It is not Tesla or Coca Cola. It’s a facade, it’s a Reality TV set, it’s a small family business run by a narcissistic sociopath.”

    Compelling interview.

    https://youtu.be/ZIczFb-6_zU

  34. [“Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues,” the statement read.

    “The CPD will be carefully considering the changes that it will adopt and will announce those measures shortly.

    “The Commission is grateful to Chris Wallace for the professionalism and skill he brought to last night’s debate and intends to ensure that additional tools to maintain order are in place for the remaining debates.”]

    A mute button would do the job. That would really piss Trump off.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-01/debate-commission-to-make-changes-to-format-us-2020-election/12720400

  35. ‘Fox News just called renewable energy “socialism.”’

    ***

    No! Say it ain’t so!?! How is that possible? I thought we were supposed to avoid this by not nominating Fidel Castro remember?!?

    *rolls eyes*

    It’s truly incredible how gullible the establishment flock is.

  36. I am reluctant to pay much attention to those who previously fawned over and profited off Trump. I am certainly loathe to forgive and forget. But the more I see and read and hear from Scaramucci the more I believe he not only changed his mind about Trump but actually changed who he is. When this is all over, his story might make a compelling movie.

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