Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate

Early manoeuvres for a Liberal vacancy in a looming federal by-election, and a preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate seat set for November 7.

With Newspoll and Essential Research both having said their piece this week, there is likely to be a fortnight gap between federal polls. Not counting state and territory election action, which you can be assured you will be hearing more about shortly, there are two important preselections on the boil on the conservative side of politics:

• A situation is vacant for the Liberals in the Toowoomba-based federal seat of Groom following last week’s resignation announcement from John McVeigh, the member since 2016. In a column for the Brisbane Times, former Newman government minister and current 4BC presenter Scott Emerson says the vacancy presents an opportunity to head off a stoush over the order of the next Senate ticket between James McGrath and Amanda Stoker. The winner of this fight will get top position while the loser must settle for third, second being reserved for the Nationals. Emerson reports that this amounts to a battle between moderates and the Christian Right, of which McGrath is apparently one of the former. The suggestion is that Groom might give McGrath an opening, but in this he could face opposition from locals who support the claim of Toowoomba councillor Rebecca Vonhoff. Suggestions the seat might be of interest to another Senator, Matt Canavan, are complicated by the fact that he is a National, the sensitivity of which was illustrated when the LNP organisation blocked an attempt by the seat’s previous member, Ian Macfarlane, to jump ship from Liberal to the Nationals in 2015.

• Nathan Hondros of WAToday reports the Liberals will hold their preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Western Australian Senate vacancy on November 7, with the winner to take third position on the party’s ticket at the next election behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith. There would appear to be three nominees: Julian Ambrose, stepson of the late Perth construction billionaire Len Buckeridge; Sherry Sufi, an arch-conservative party activist; and Albert Jacob, former state Environment Minister and current mayor of Joondalup, who emerged as a “last-minute nomination”. Jacob held the coastal northern suburbs seat of Ocean Reef from 2008 to 2017, when he was defeated in the landslide the tipped the Barnett government from office. Cormann is reportedly lobbying for Ambrose, and his backers are pressuring Sufi to withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,450 comments on “Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate”

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  1. Quoll

    I’m not sure that I agree with all your accusations, but the silence is very worrying.
    OTOH, criticising any of Morrison’s anti-folio ministers seems to get us nowhere at all.

  3. Fess

    I am quietly confident. But remember I also believed Trump would have been removed as President years ago.
    I failed in not factoring in how disgustingly compromised the rest of the GOP is

  4. LOL

    Following a debate derailed by interruptions, people speaking over each other, and insults hurled back and forth, Google reported a peak number of searches for “How to apply for Canadian citizenship” in the US.

    Some people seemed in such a hurry to get out they couldn’t even get the name right: searches for “How to move to Canda” also spiked alongside the correct “How to move to Canada”.

  5. Confessions @ #2142 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:37 am

    C@t:

    Listening to the Bulwark today I was surprised by David Jolly’s view that Team Trump’s strategy is to have the election decided in the House if it isn’t a thumping Biden victory. I suppose that’s how he can persist with the notion that he was robbed (Dems will control the House) and in his mind won’t leave the office a loser.

    And he would win the election as a result. Each state gets one elector and there are more Republican state Governors than Democrat. Too easy for Trump to win ugly. But win he seems determined to do, by hook or by crook. Because he is a crook.

  6. Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    · 42m

    Seems Morrison’s policies are shaped by his Hillsong prosperity theology beliefs; God wanting the rich to be rich, the poor deserving to be poor etc. #ScottyFromMarketing’s friend and mentor Brian Houston wrote this enlightening book:

  8. Steve777

    Lol!

    What is Albo waiting for? We have thousands of Australians wishing to return home from countries where COVID is running rampant again. And Morrison suggests self isolation at home should do the trick.
    And then of course open all state borders. Therefore all the sacrificies and hard work by the states to suppress COVID is all for nothing.
    It’s a frickin joke.

  9. “Not sure if this helps, but I find I have to refresh the page for my edits to show.”

    ***

    Nope, not even a hard refresh (Ctrl+Shift+R) does it. Still loads up the original post without the edit.

  10. And the mealy-mouthed Susan Collins came out this morning in the US and stated that ‘there was fault on both sides’ yesterday in the debate! I hope she goes down bigly.

  12. Vic:

    I’ve been listening to a lot of commentary the past few weeks about what happens to the Republican party when Trump goes. The consensus seems to be that the entire party is corrupted by Trumpism and needs to be burned down.

  13. C@t

    There are more bombshells in the arsenal to come out if Trump continues to be stubborn about moving on.

    The public will resort to throwing tomatoes at him when he departs. That is how hated he is going to be. Lol!

  14. C@t:

    I just assumed it was the coward’s way out where he could blame others for his defeat and still claim that voters wanted him/he won the election etc.

  19. C@tmomma @ #2151 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:46 am

    Confessions @ #2142 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:37 am

    C@t:

    Listening to the Bulwark today I was surprised by David Jolly’s view that Team Trump’s strategy is to have the election decided in the House if it isn’t a thumping Biden victory. I suppose that’s how he can persist with the notion that he was robbed (Dems will control the House) and in his mind won’t leave the office a loser.

    And he would win the election as a result. Each state gets one elector and there are more Republican state Governors than Democrat. Too easy for Trump to win ugly. But win he seems determined to do, by hook or by crook. Because he is a crook.

    US State governors have nothing to do with the House of Representatives, either at state or federal level.. The HoR in each state would determine its vote in any federal HoR vote on the presidency. Due to gerrymandering, many states have houses with a Republican majority, but a Dem governor, eg Michigan. Although it could change after the election, at present there are a majority of Republican state houses.

  25. Loudmouthed Right wingers are a problem everywhere. You see it on Q&A a lot, too.

    One person – almost always from the Right – decides to dominate, and the other, politer people present tend to shut up. Shouting back does no good for the viewers.

    The moderators and interviewers rarely moderate. They’re trying to be polite too.

    Why it’s mostly the Right that just can’t let the other side make a point, why everything must be loudly rebutted instantly, even if requiring they talk over the other person, is a mystery to me.

  28. Lizzie

    I can see why the govt has decided that only years 11 and 12 students return to classroom on Monday when school re commences. Primary students the following Monday.
    And no decision yet on the years 7 to 10

  33. Re Victorian daily new Covid cases, ten of the last twelve days have been between 10 and 15, with a spike to 28 and a dip to 5.

  35. Victoria @ #2141 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:33 am

    This was reported yesterday

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    @smh
    ·
    17h
    Breaking: Ruby Princess passengers on Qantas flight infected at least eight others |
    @jennynoise

    Ruby Princess passengers on Qantas flight infected at least eight others
    Just hours after they were allowed to disembark from the Ruby Princess, 13 passengers unknowingly took the virus on a flight to Perth – where it spread.
    smh.com.au

    This was known months ago. Australia was identified as being responsible for many early cases of international Covid-19 spread, all because of the Ruby Princess debacle, and the government’s refusal to release the names of those known to be infected to the airlines (who had pleaded for them). Those people fled to the four corners of the earth, taking Covid-19 with them.

    It’s unbelievable that this story has not received more coverage here in Australia.

    Perhaps that’s because Morrison and Co can’t figure out a way to shift the blame to Dan Andrews? 🙁

  36. Just heard that Victoria’s COVID death toll has reached 800.

    Victoria’s population of approximately 6.7 million people amounts to around 1/49th of the USA’s 331 million.

    So multiplying 800 deaths by 49 gives an apples-for-apples “Victoria vs. USA” death toll of 39,522, against the 210,000 deaths in the USA.

    Victoria’s death rate is 39,522/210,000 or 18.9%… let’s round everything up and say 20% of the USA’s. Put conversely, the USA’s death rate is FIVE times that of Chairman Dan’s People’s Republic Of Victoria.

    Why the QAnons and other numpties out demonstrating for “Freedom” in Victoria reckon that state of bliss is worth quintupling the death rate escapes me at the moment.

  37. Professor Sutton said on Wednesday that he and his colleagues had moved, as case numbers dropped towards single digits, to placing greater weight on the “story” behind each diagnosis, and confirmed they were prepared to be flexible on that magic number.

    He said the raw daily case numbers were now less important for the big-picture decisions than the origin of each individual infection and whether it could be tracked and traced.

    “It’s the most prominent criteria,” he said. “We will absolutely look to those mystery cases in particular and those sporadic … individual community cases which are often mystery cases.”

    Looking ahead to the next step on Melbourne’s long and careful road out of lockdown, Professor Sutton said we might make it without achieving that much-maligned target of a rolling 14-day average of five cases per day.

    “We want to get below five, but [if] it’s above five and the great majority of those cases are known, contained, linked and we’re confident about the control measures in place, then we might accept that as a threshold for a move to another stage,” he said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/don-t-sweat-on-the-famous-five-it-s-the-mystery-numbers-that-count-sutton-20200930-p560rl.html

  38. I’m sure Baxendale is onto this….

    Carers at Melbourne aged care claim they were pressured to delay testing
    By Cameron Houston and Clay Lucas
    One of the aged care homes hit hardest by coronavirus slashed staffing on the cusp of Victoria’s second COVID-19 wave and has been accused of instructing workers to not only delay getting tested for the virus but to keep working while awaiting test results.

    The Age has obtained emails outlining “instructions by management” at Epping Gardens to cut carers’ shifts in the weeks before coronavirus swept through the home, leaving 37 people dead and infecting almost all of the 120 residents.

    Former Epping Gardens carers told The Age the workforce cuts were so drastic that at one point just six carers were rostered on to attend to 80 vulnerable residents, resulting in many being fed around an open table.

    “These poor people,” said a former employee. “Many are now dead”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/carers-at-covid-ravaged-epping-gardens-claim-they-were-pressured-to-delay-testing-20200930-p560me.html

  39. You believe whatever suits you in a pandemic. 🙁

    Infection-control experts say Victoria’s decision to hold back on opening indoor dining is sound science because the risk of spreading the coronavirus is much higher indoors than out.
    …
    The restaurant industry says there is no conclusive Australian evidence showing indoor dining is more risky than outdoor dining.

    But Philip Russo, president of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control, said there was strong evidence COVID-19 spread much more easily indoors.

    “I feel for these people. It’s tough,” Associate Professor Russo said.

    “But the evidence at this stage is an 18-fold increase of transmission risk indoors, compared to outdoor environments.
    …
    Restaurant & Catering Australia chief executive Wes Lambert has submitted a blueprint to the state government to reopen dining.

    “There is no science in Australia, the country we live in, that shows dining indoors or outdoors is any safer,” he said.

    “The anecdotal evidence … is an infinitesimal number of the cases in Australia can be traced to hospitality businesses.”
    …
    New York, which has managed to hold new cases low for months, has banned indoor dining. Meanwhile, San Diego has traced nearly a third of its outbreaks to restaurants and bars; and Louisiana has traced nearly a quarter.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/reopen-indoor-dining-industry-says-right-now-but-science-says-be-careful-20200929-p560cy.html

  40. C@tmomma @ #2137 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:18 am

    lizzie @ #2133 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 8:14 am

    KayJay

    A little moral dilemma for you.

    If Woolies delivers extra items that I didn’t order (and can’t use), do I have to give them back?

    If they are non-perishable you could donate them to a homeless shelter or Womens refuge in your area. The Catholic Church in our area provides a hot meal every day for our area’s indigent and they always welcome donations. Also toiletries as they provide hot showers as well and a place for people to wash their clothes.

    I like Ms. C@tmomma answer although it would place a burden on the customer.

    I have on another occasion received such items but none of my requirements and a phone call elicited he response to keep the wrongly delivered items and my order would be re delivered, which it was.

    Simply being a customer should not require more than making an order and paying the account.

    Sorry to be so slow. I read just about all the post but only in between other activities such as computer updates and testing, plus household chores and

    TA DA mowing!

    My wife would have said that you have a tender conscience …..an admirable trait in my opinion.

  42. Firefox says:
    Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 8:49 am
    “Not sure if this helps, but I find I have to refresh the page for my edits to show.”

    ***

    Nope, not even a hard refresh (Ctrl+Shift+R) does it. Still loads up the original post without the edit.

    Don’t worry FF. Bludgers are quite capable of carrying out suitable virtual editing/deletion of your posts. This is practically instinctive by now.

  45. Good reading in Vanity Fair…

    ‘Trump doesn’t accept the consensus that the debate was a disaster because, sources said, he was unabashedly himself. “The thing about the debate is people got to see why no one that has any integrity can work for Trump. This is what Trump is like in the Oval Office every day. It’s why [John] Kelly left. It’s why [Jim] Mattis quit,” said the prominent Republican. “Trump doesn’t let anyone else speak. He really doesn’t care what you have to say. He demeans people. He talks over them. And everyone around him thinks it’s getting worse.”

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/09/trumpworld-panics-over-debate-fiasco-as-campaign-turmoil-mounts

  47. I just assumed it was the coward’s way out where he could blame others for his defeat and still claim that voters wanted him/he won the election etc.

    If you’ve ever read Hitler’s last will and testament (and I warn you, a shower afterwards is probably a good thing, with disinfectant soap) you will understand how Trump will view his defeat.
    Just like Hitler, the American people would not have been deserving of his brilliance and his downfall would be due to “Anitfa” (which is simply the Trumpist version of “World Jewry”).

  48. sprocket_

    I’m imagining that those who admire Trump have the same lack of respect for anyone else’s opinion and think that insulting someone who refuses to answer back is “winning”.

  49. The restaurant industry says there is no conclusive Australian evidence showing indoor dining is more risky than outdoor dining.

    The parochial requirement that all testing, verification and compliance procedures must be replicated in Australia, or else all bets are off and let’s let rip is so stupid.

    What do these restaurateurs want to do? Kill their customers and be responsible for the crushing disaster of a third wave?

    Remember the marketing myth of imported cars “built for Australian conditions”, which meant nothing much more than the inclusion of fitted seat belts and a steering wheel on the right hand side of the car?

  50. Hey Lizzie,

    We often get extras from colesworth deliveries. We asked them, and it costs them more to collect them from us than they lose in revenue. Plus sometimes they throw in samples.

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