Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up

Poll respondents continue to rate incumbents generously in their response to COVID-19; an ACT poll points to a status quo result at the election there in October; and the preference distribution is finalised from the Eden-Monaro by-election.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, showing further improvement in Scott Morrison’s standing. He is up three points on approval to 66% and down four on disapproval to 23%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and up two to 30%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is at 52-22, out from 50-27.

The small-sample breakdowns on state government performance finds the Victorian government still holding up reasonably well, with 49% rating it good (down four on a week ago, but well down on a 75% peak in mid-June), while the New South Wales government’s good rating is down a point to 61% and Queensland’s up a point to 68%. Results for the federal goverment are not provided, but will presumably be in the full report when it is published later today.

Fifty per cent now rate themselves very concerned about COVID-19, which is up seven points on a fortnight ago and has been progressively rising from a low of 25% in mid-June. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they would seek a vaccine straight away, 35% less immediately and 8% not at all. Twenty per cent believed that “hydroxychloroquine has been shown to be a safe and effective treatment”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s good rating on handling COVID-19 is down a point to 63%, and its poor rating is steady at 16%.

Other news:

• We had a rare opinion poll for the Australian Capital Territory, which holds its election on October 17, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute. It offered no indication that the Liberals are about to break free of their status as a permanent opposition, with Labor on 37.6%, Liberal on 38.2% and the Greens on 14.6%, compared with 2016 election results of 38.4%, 36.7% and 10.3%. This would almost certainly result in a continuation of the present state of affairs in which the Greens hold the balance of the power. The poll also found overwhelming support for “truth in political advertising” laws, with 88.5% supportive and 4.9% opposed. The poll was conducted on July 20 from a sample of 1049.

• The preference distribution from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election has been published, offering some insight into how much Labor’s narrow victory was owed to a Shooters Fishers and Farmers preference recommendation and a higher than usual rate of leakage from the Nationals. The former was likely decisive: when Shooters were excluded at the final count, 5341 (56.61%) went to Labor and 4093 (43.39%) went to Liberal, which includes 5066 first preference Shooters votes and another 4368 they picked up during the preference distribution (including 1222 from the Nationals). When the Nationals were excluded earlier in the count, 4399 votes (63.76%) went to the Liberals, the aforementioned 1222 (17.71%) to Shooters, 995 (14.42%) to Labor and 283 (4.10%) to the Greens. This includes 6052 first preference votes for the Nationals and another 847 they picked up as preferences earlier in the distribution. That would be consistent with maybe 20% of Nationals votes ending up with Labor compared with 13% at the 2019 election, which would not quite account for Labor’s winning margin. At some point in the future, two-candidate preferred preference flow figures will tell us precisely how each candidate’s votes split between Labor and Liberal.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,756 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up”

Comments Page 48 of 56
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  1. ‘ You have three senior Labor figures – Albanese, Bowen and FitzGibbon – and you have three different and incompatible views..’

    You’d think journos would understand the process by now.

    Labor won’t HAVE an official climate policy until a lot closer to the election. This is because policies have to be reviewed, experts consulted, alternatives discussed (it’s called debate, and it’s why three different Labor MPs can have totally different positions). There’s then a range of options put to the various Labor conferences and thrashed out there. Eventually, a policy position is put to Labor caucus and undergoes further debate. Then caucus takes a position (which might not be made public until the actual election campaign, particularly given what happened when Labor released policies ‘early’ last time).

    The second caucus decides on a position, then everyone sings the same tune. (They’ve had their opportunity to put their case, if they’ve lost, they have to at least consider their position was Wrong).

    It’s understandable that the ordinary person on the street wouldn’t know this. If a ‘political’ journalist doesn’t, then either they know very very little about their subject matter or they’re deliberately pretending they don’t know. Neither reflects very well on the journo in question.

    Disclaimer: I’m not defending, I’m describing.

  3. I don’t think I’ll be able to watch TV news today as it concentrates on the War. Right now Morrison has come out of his bunker to be “statesmanlike”. No thanks.

  4. lizzie

    About a decade ago, a UK woman I was playing on line Scrabble with (we’d be playing each other for years) told me she had to leave because she was getting her eyebrows threaded, so I asked her what she meant.

    Apparently a loop of thread is put around an eyebrow hair and pulled to remove it.

    I have no idea why she didn’t just use tweezers.

  6. ‘The Chaser’ is saying that they avoided (not entirely) jokes about the security guard because they couldn’t find reliable sources for the information – and note that it is a sad indictment of the media in general that a satirical news source takes a more responsible attitude than the ‘real’ media.

  7. This is not going to be a good weekend. My coffee machine has broken down.

    We sat down for coffee in a shopping centre.

    Interestingly where I live in Melbourne there is a very popular local cafe around the corner.

    There seems to be a lot of talk about coffee this morning – the first morning of my new low caffeine intake regime.

  9. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    4m
    Quarantine is a Commonwealth responsibility. Morrison is protecting his arse again. Hotel quarantine was a National Cabinet decision. The cost is carried by the Commonwealth. Private security companies were used in all states except Qld which changed its mind at the last minute

  11. zoomster @ #2351 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    Labor won’t HAVE an official climate policy until a lot closer to the election. This is because policies have to be reviewed, experts consulted, alternatives discussed (it’s called debate, and it’s why three different Labor MPs can have totally different positions). There’s then a range of options put to the various Labor conferences and thrashed out there. Eventually, a policy position is put to Labor caucus and undergoes further debate. Then caucus takes a position (which might not be made public until the actual election campaign, particularly given what happened when Labor released policies ‘early’ last time).

    So you support the Bowen “small target” approach? I suppose that might work … but in fact it is really just an acknowledgment that the issues cannot be reconciled within Labor. And this is certainly how it will be portrayed by the Tories!

    Unless the Labor pro-coal faction is well and truly repudiated by the Labor leadership team, speaking with one clear voice, then they will no doubt quietly go on feeding the same messages to their electorates, which will again be at odds with whatever policy position Labor holds publicly.

    And we saw at the last election just how well that is likely to pan out for Labor.

  16. Iced Coffee is a good way to wean yourself off caffeine. It has a recognisable and consistent amount of caffeine per bottle so that you can titrate your dosage reduction in an effective way. You can also warm it up to make a milk coffee.

    Me? I switched from coffee to tea (which still has caffeine in it, much reduced though). Wakes me up in the morning, keeps me refreshed during the day. 🙂

  17. P1

    ‘So you support the Bowen “small target” approach?’

    Which bit of ‘not defending, explaining’ didn’t you understand?

  18. I often wonder if the universe, karma or if she exists “dog” is having a laugh at the human race. While watching the 75th anniversary of VP day the camera panned over the inverted 4 no.1 mk111 lee enfield rifles representing the 4 branches of the armed services and the ticker at the bottom of the screen announced 303 cases in Victoria today.

  19. The Democrat fight-back against Trump’s attempt to ‘kneecap mail-in voting’ (thank you, President Obama *sigh* ) has begun:

    *California governor Gavin Newsom signed two executive orders to facilitate mail-in voting for the 2020 election after Donald Trump sought to discourage it by defunding the Postal Service.
    *New Jersey governor Phil Murphy also announced an executive order making it easier to vote by mail.
    *Elizabeth Warren demanded a probe of the recently-appointed Trump-allied postmaster.
    *Maxine Waters held a press conference at the main US Post office in Los Angeles to bring attention to Trump’s actions against the USPS.
    Joe Biden called the USPS situation “bizarre”.

  20. C@

    ‘So, why don’t the advisers become the politicians?’

    There’s a range of reasons! Some of them do, of course – but their advisory capacity was usually in one aspect of politics, not the whole gamut of it, so they might be (for example) very good at writing media releases but cr*p at public speaking, so the problem isn’t necessarily solved.

    Candidates – particularly in marginal seats – are ‘managed’ to the nth degree, and are thus ‘groomed’ to believe that they should listen to experts rather than trusting their own instincts.

  22. C@tmomma @ #2365 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 9:05 am

    zoomster @ #2324 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 9:58 am

    lizzie

    Too many pollies don’t bother to learn their craft and let themselves be run by their advisers.

    So, why don’t the advisers become the politicians?

    A better question is why are these so-called advisors all in their 20’s and with no real world experience under their belts. A degree in Political Science is not even remotely close to “real world experience”.

  23. Thanks, zoomster. I kind of knew that already but it leads me to my next question relating to this:

    Candidates – particularly in marginal seats – are ‘managed’ to the nth degree, and are thus ‘groomed’ to believe that they should listen to experts rather than trusting their own instincts.

    As this has resulted in a certain kind of robotic nature to candidates, which the electorate perceives as the candidate not being real or genuine, as we found out at the last election, when we went backwards against an equally poor Liberal, why do they persist in doing it!?!

  24. Danama Papers @ #2372 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    C@tmomma @ #2365 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 9:05 am

    zoomster @ #2324 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 9:58 am

    lizzie

    Too many pollies don’t bother to learn their craft and let themselves be run by their advisers.

    So, why don’t the advisers become the politicians?

    A better question is why are these so-called advisors all in their 20’s and with no real world experience under their belts. A degree in Political Science is not even remotely close to “real world experience”.

    Ergo, friendlyjordies for PM! He has a degree in International Relations and Political Science PLUS real world experience AND he is the best communicator on Labor’s side since Paul Keating. 🙂

  25. zoomster @ #2367 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    P1

    ‘So you support the Bowen “small target” approach?’

    Which bit of ‘not defending, explaining’ didn’t you understand?

    This bit:

    Then caucus takes a position (which might not be made public until the actual election campaign, particularly given what happened when Labor released policies ‘early’ last time).

    You can’t see that this is essentially Bowen’s “small target” strategy?

  26. C@tmomma @ #2371 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:15 am

    zoomster @ #2367 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    P1

    ‘So you support the Bowen “small target” approach?’

    Which bit of ‘not defending, explaining’ didn’t you understand?

    Don’t go down the rabbit hole with P1. It is a fruitless and frustrating endeavour and time you will never get back.

    I can certainly understand why some Labor people here don’t like to see the issue being debated.

  30. C@tmomma @ #2374 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 9:21 am

    Ergo, friendlyjordies for PM! He has a degree in International Relations and Political Science PLUS real world experience AND he is the best communicator on Labor’s side since Paul Keating. 🙂

    I’ve been critical of FJ in the past saying that, to my ears at least, his delivery style distracted from the message, but his latest #WhatTheBloodyHellHappened got the balance just right. So much so, that I didn’t even notice his “style” and remained focussed purely on his message. Job well done.

    Keating is a great example of being everything these so-called advisors will probably never be. A high school dropout educated at the School Of Hard Knocks, but gifted with a natural ability to convey complex messages in an easy to understand manner, and an even more natural ability to humble even the high and mighty with a acerbic and witty comeback that hit every target it was aimed at.

  31. C@

    They probably blame the candidate! After all, they’re expendable.

    Both Gillard and Shorten have obviously suffered this bad advice. Both are genuinely likeable people, who, left to themselves, are perfectly capable of arguing their cases. Both were ‘managed’ almost out of existence and have now reverted to being likeable people capable of arguing their own cases…

    Gillard apparently objected to the Women’s Weekly knitting spread but was overruled by advisers, who pocketed the money and went back to where they came from to continue advising other politicians….

  34. Andrews

    Surgical nurses who have moved into aged care have had extra counselling so they can deal with circumstances they aren’t used to.

  35. For those who don’t understand the importance of it, here is some more of Bowen’s proposals to address the conflicts between the pro-coal and anti-coal factions within Labor:

    He (Bowen) says Labor should build on that lesson by going into the next election campaign with a “small bunch of national priorities” that can be turned into action through the national cabinet governance structure created during the pandemic.

    On climate change policy, which remains a source of internal debate post-election, Bowen says Labor has to reset the national conversation, and resist being drawn into the efforts of the Liberal and National parties to make climate an issue of identity politics, which leads to Labor losing support in coal communities in Queensland.

    Essentially, Bowen seems to be acknowledging that Labor cannot reconcile their internal conflicts, so his suggestion seems to be that they simply stop talking about it. As Zoomster suggests – but can’t seem seem to see the relevance of – they may persist in this all the way up until the next election campaign.

    Then, of course, the wheels fall off.

  37. ‘ As Zoomster suggests – but can’t seem seem to see the relevance of – they may persist in this all the way up until the next election campaign..’

    Actually, Zoomster suggested no such thing, but she recognises that you have limited understanding and accepts that.

  39. Player One @ #2385 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:45 am

    For those who don’t understand the importance of it, here is some more of Bowen’s proposals to address the conflicts between the pro-coal and anti-coal factions within Labor:

    He (Bowen) says Labor should build on that lesson by going into the next election campaign with a “small bunch of national priorities” that can be turned into action through the national cabinet governance structure created during the pandemic.

    On climate change policy, which remains a source of internal debate post-election, Bowen says Labor has to reset the national conversation, and resist being drawn into the efforts of the Liberal and National parties to make climate an issue of identity politics, which leads to Labor losing support in coal communities in Queensland.

    Essentially, Bowen seems to be acknowledging that Labor cannot reconcile their internal conflicts, so his suggestion seems to be that they simply stop talking about it. As Zoomster suggests – but can’t seem seem to see the relevance of – they may persist in this all the way up until the next election campaign.

    Then, of course, the wheels fall off.

    Essentially, Bowen seems to be acknowledging that Labor is fcked for the foreseeable future.

  41. Player One @ #2376 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:26 am

    C@tmomma @ #2371 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:15 am

    zoomster @ #2367 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    P1

    ‘So you support the Bowen “small target” approach?’

    Which bit of ‘not defending, explaining’ didn’t you understand?

    Don’t go down the rabbit hole with P1. It is a fruitless and frustrating endeavour and time you will never get back.

    I can certainly understand why some Labor people here don’t like to see the issue being debated.

    Discussion about Labor’s current inertia is verboten on this site.
    Talk about something else.

  42. GG, only have her own point of view is fair enough, but the consistent behaviour is that she has to have the last say.

    I will guarantee, it will be no different this time.

  46. Player One @ #2385 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 11:45 am

    For those who don’t understand the importance of it, here is some more of Bowen’s proposals to address the conflicts between the pro-coal and anti-coal factions within Labor:

    He (Bowen) says Labor should build on that lesson by going into the next election campaign with a “small bunch of national priorities” that can be turned into action through the national cabinet governance structure created during the pandemic.

    On climate change policy, which remains a source of internal debate post-election, Bowen says Labor has to reset the national conversation, and resist being drawn into the efforts of the Liberal and National parties to make climate an issue of identity politics, which leads to Labor losing support in coal communities in Queensland.

    Essentially, Bowen seems to be acknowledging that Labor cannot reconcile their internal conflicts, so his suggestion seems to be that they simply stop talking about it. As Zoomster suggests – but can’t seem seem to see the relevance of – they may persist in this all the way up until the next election campaign.

    Then, of course, the wheels fall off.

    At least the dolt Bowen is being upfront about Labors inability, incapacity and unwillingness to argue against fossil fuels.

  47. Boris Johnson thinks the reason the Scots have fallen out of love with the Westminster Union is because there are too few Union flags in Scotland ! Truely!

    He has developed a cunning plan for a lot more Union Jackery!!

    The plan is too put Union Jacks on anything that doesn’t move fast enough to remind the ungrateful Jocks of all the things funded from their own taxes and under the control of a foreign government!

    Baldrick would be envious of its cunningness!! 🙂

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18652523.boris-johnsons-new-union-flag-plan-shows-desperate-unionists-are/

  48. This is beyond upsetting.

    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    19m
    Premier says they are having to increase counselling for staff who have gone in to help in aged care facilities where there’s been outbreaks.. and some truly ghastly settings” “They can’t unsee what they’ve seen.”

  49. Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    8m
    CHO Sutton being asked about how to read the daily new case numbers next week.. as a rough guide of how if it’s working.. : “if we’re seeing all days in the 300s next week.. it’s too slow for me”..

  50. victoria

    According to Dan they are surgical staff who are not used to non-sterile environments, which is probably why they find it hard to deal.

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