Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up

Poll respondents continue to rate incumbents generously in their response to COVID-19; an ACT poll points to a status quo result at the election there in October; and the preference distribution is finalised from the Eden-Monaro by-election.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, showing further improvement in Scott Morrison’s standing. He is up three points on approval to 66% and down four on disapproval to 23%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and up two to 30%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is at 52-22, out from 50-27.

The small-sample breakdowns on state government performance finds the Victorian government still holding up reasonably well, with 49% rating it good (down four on a week ago, but well down on a 75% peak in mid-June), while the New South Wales government’s good rating is down a point to 61% and Queensland’s up a point to 68%. Results for the federal goverment are not provided, but will presumably be in the full report when it is published later today.

Fifty per cent now rate themselves very concerned about COVID-19, which is up seven points on a fortnight ago and has been progressively rising from a low of 25% in mid-June. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they would seek a vaccine straight away, 35% less immediately and 8% not at all. Twenty per cent believed that “hydroxychloroquine has been shown to be a safe and effective treatment”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s good rating on handling COVID-19 is down a point to 63%, and its poor rating is steady at 16%.

Other news:

• We had a rare opinion poll for the Australian Capital Territory, which holds its election on October 17, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute. It offered no indication that the Liberals are about to break free of their status as a permanent opposition, with Labor on 37.6%, Liberal on 38.2% and the Greens on 14.6%, compared with 2016 election results of 38.4%, 36.7% and 10.3%. This would almost certainly result in a continuation of the present state of affairs in which the Greens hold the balance of the power. The poll also found overwhelming support for “truth in political advertising” laws, with 88.5% supportive and 4.9% opposed. The poll was conducted on July 20 from a sample of 1049.

• The preference distribution from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election has been published, offering some insight into how much Labor’s narrow victory was owed to a Shooters Fishers and Farmers preference recommendation and a higher than usual rate of leakage from the Nationals. The former was likely decisive: when Shooters were excluded at the final count, 5341 (56.61%) went to Labor and 4093 (43.39%) went to Liberal, which includes 5066 first preference Shooters votes and another 4368 they picked up during the preference distribution (including 1222 from the Nationals). When the Nationals were excluded earlier in the count, 4399 votes (63.76%) went to the Liberals, the aforementioned 1222 (17.71%) to Shooters, 995 (14.42%) to Labor and 283 (4.10%) to the Greens. This includes 6052 first preference votes for the Nationals and another 847 they picked up as preferences earlier in the distribution. That would be consistent with maybe 20% of Nationals votes ending up with Labor compared with 13% at the 2019 election, which would not quite account for Labor’s winning margin. At some point in the future, two-candidate preferred preference flow figures will tell us precisely how each candidate’s votes split between Labor and Liberal.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,756 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up”

Comments Page 1 of 56
1 2 … 56

  1. Despite the media pile-on, Andrews’ crisis handling still scores a 49% approval.
    And despite all her dithering Gladys’ approach gets 61% support.

    I guess most people are just too busy worrying about their futures – “This fortnight, 50% report being very concerned (about Covid19)– a seven point increase from a fortnight ago.” to notice details.

  2. It’s looking more and more like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are moving in to the house that the Nats thought was theirs alone.
    Are the Nats on the road to irrelevancy? Maybe. Right now they should be worried. The SFF vote of 5.34% pv almost equaled that of the Nats of 6.37% pv.

    The real problem for the Libs is that the SFF recommend their supporters preference Labor.

  3. These distributions are an early sign that Labor attempts at broadening it’s appeal beyond the Greens and their ilk might be the right strategy for future Elections.

  4. Maude Lynne @ #2 Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 – 5:15 am

    It’s looking more and more like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are moving in to the house that the Nats thought was theirs alone.
    Are the Nats on the road to irrelevancy? Maybe. Right now they should be worried. The SFF vote of 5.34% pv almost equaled that of the Nats of 6.37% pv.

    If they take a central position and drop the “Shooters” label, is that such a bad thing?

  5. When the Nationals were excluded earlier in the count, 4399 votes (63.76%) went to the Liberals, the aforementioned 1222 (17.71%) to Shooters, 995 (14.42%) to Labor and 283 (4.10%) to the Greens.

    And another Greens project, to go into the country and take Nationals votes, bites the dust.

  6. BiTB
    “If they take a central position and drop the “Shooters” label, is that such a bad thing?”
    I’m not against the SFF moving to the centre, but they’d need to take care about dropping the label by which they are known.

  7. The interesting thing about the SFF is that they will never forgive John Howard and the Liberal Party for taking their guns away. That’s why, even though people might think the SFF are more closely aligned with conservatives, they are reluctant to do preference deals with the Liberals for that singular reason.

  8. Maude Lynne @ #6 Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 – 5:29 am

    BiTB
    “If they take a central position and drop the “Shooters” label, is that such a bad thing?”
    I’m not against the SFF moving to the centre, but they’d need to take care about dropping the label by which they are known.

    Priorities can change as new Parties develop.

    They’ve already shown this with the addition of Farmers.

  9. It’d be the Gettysburg Address if SNL were doing it.

    President Trump said his nomination acceptance speech, a week after the Democrats’ convention, will happen either at Gettysburg, Pa. — the site of the bloodiest battle of the Civil War — or the White House, an idea that has gotten some pushback from critics who argue that such a move would blur the lines between official and campaign activities.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/10/trump-biden-live-updates/?hpid=hp_politics1-8-12_electionluf%3Aprime-time%2Fpromo

  12. Always lots of announcements of money being thrown around, but it rarely lands where it was promised. “Can’t get blood out of a stone” comes to mind.

    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    ·
    6m
    In case you were wondering about today’s guidelines release for arts funding, no money will flow for months. And it deals with less than half of what they announced. Also today: new guidelines for an arts funding program they announced in March LAST YEAR!

  13. DPRK News Service@DPRK_News
    ·
    3h
    Donald Trump to celebrate killing more Americans than confederate rebel Robert E. Lee with speech at Gettysburg battlefield.

    😀

  14. Confessions @ #9 Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 – 5:33 am

    It’d be the Gettysburg Address if SNL were doing it.

    President Trump said his nomination acceptance speech, a week after the Democrats’ convention, will happen either at Gettysburg, Pa. — the site of the bloodiest battle of the Civil War — or the White House, an idea that has gotten some pushback from critics who argue that such a move would blur the lines between official and campaign activities.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/10/trump-biden-live-updates/?hpid=hp_politics1-8-12_electionluf%3Aprime-time%2Fpromo

    Instead war wounded, maybe they could surround him with COVID patients.

  15. I would imagine that if the SSF party reversed its name to the Farmers Fishers and Shooters, this would cause a considerable amount of confusion and grief for the Nationals.

  17. Jonathan Tamari
    @JonathanTamari

    The president spoke in Gettysburg on Oct. 22, 2016, just a couple weeks before Election Day.
    That region has one of the largest concentrations of GOP votes in all of PA.

  20. It seems that Tim Wilson made himself the star of the show last night on QandA. No matter what platform he has, he never allows anyone else to speak without pushing in and talking over them. Obnoxious little bore.

  22. Ugh.

    Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick

    UNSW epidemiologist and WHO pandemic adviser Prof. Mary-Louise McLaws has been telling the #agedcareRC that good airflow is critical to managing outbreaks. Hospitals need 40-80 litres per second per patient. Some aged care home are “less than 3 litres per second per resident.”

  23. An interesting tidbit from Katherine Murphy’s report on the Essential poll:

    The small cohort reporting they will never get vaccinated is more likely to vote for the Greens and for a candidate other than Liberal or Labor, and are more likely to be under the age of 34 than older than 35.

    For the Greens this should be another worrying sign that they are attracting more of the ratbag fringe.
    Sarah HY has recently recognised the danger this has for them:
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/antivaxxers-have-infected-the-greens-senator-sarah-hansonyoung-warns/news-story/cd62907a9defd095dc3eb1966708248a

  24. Seems as though the Liberals don’t really take this social distancing stuff seriously. Socialising? Hell yeah!

    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    22m
    At least now the reasons behind the backflip for parliament to resume are a little clearer… :

    Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    · 29m
    Liberal party plans three $2,500-a-head fundraising events in Canberra amid Covid risk – from @knausc https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/11/liberal-party-plans-three-2500-a-head-fundraising-events-in-canberra-amid-covid-risk

  25. What a useless lot they are. “We have a plan” is the way that all the ministers respond to any question. Yet planning for the future is the last thing they do.

    Samuel Clark
    @sclark_melbs
    ·
    10m
    Aged Care Minister @richardmcolbeck tells @frankelly08 the federal government does have a plan for aged care which is “evolving” with the pandemic. He says the government has been providing advice and support to the sector since January.

  26. It’s ‘evolving along with the pandemic’!?! So they’ll act, when!?! After the pandemic finally ‘settles down’ so they can analyse it properly!?!

    Is this what Colbeck means!?!

  28. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Katharine Murphy unpacks the latest essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/11/essential-poll-australians-more-worried-about-stopping-covid-spread-than-reviving-economy
    David Crowe and Julie Power report on yesterday’s interesting day at the Aged Care Royal Commission where federal agencies have been accused of failing to prepare for thousands of coronavirus cases in aged care homes at a crucial point when infections surged
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-plan-royal-commission-hears-federal-agencies-failed-aged-care-20200810-p55kdt.html
    And Crowe tells us how federal officials will be shielded from direct scrutiny at the NSW inquiry into the Ruby Princess cruise ship amid accusations the Morrison government has failed to co-operate with the investigation which is required to report to the Premier by this Friday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-officials-shielded-from-ruby-princess-inquiry-20200810-p55kda.html
    Meanwhile Matt Coughlan reports that Australia’s top public servant will face a Senate inquiry putting the federal government’s coronavirus response under the microscope. Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary Philip Gaetjens is due to appear before the committee today alongside senior departmental officials. Should make for some interesting viewing.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6872923/top-bureaucrat-to-face-coronavirus-inquiry/?cs=14231
    And Daniel Andrews is set to be grilled over his government’s handling of Victoria’s second coronavirus wave at a parliamentary inquiry. Mr Andrews will be the first witness called at the second sitting of the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee’s COVID-19 Inquiry today.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6872927/andrews-to-be-grilled-at-vic-virus-inquiry/?cs=14231
    On the subject of inquiries, these contributors say that it’s time for a royal commission into robodebt. They’re not wrong!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6855768/its-time-for-a-royal-commission-into-robodebt/?cs=14350
    Retailers getting millions of dollars in JobKeeper program wage subsidies are posting higher profits and paying bigger dividends to their shareholders. The AFR headlines this article with, “JobKeeper becomes DividendKeeper”.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/jobkeeper-becomes-dividendkeeper-20200810-p55kc0
    Anna Patty reports that Catholic Hospitals have urged chemists and other retailers to stop selling hospital-grade masks to the public to prevent a shortage of stock needed to protect the safety of health workers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/hospitals-urge-retailers-to-stop-selling-high-grade-masks-to-public-20200810-p55kbh.html
    Scott Morrison is giving a masterclass in political malleability over aged care Covid deaths says Katharine Murphy. She is not impressed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/10/scott-morrison-gives-masterclass-in-political-malleability-over-aged-care-covid-deaths
    Outsourcing blame can’t keep working for Scott Morrison says Paul Bongiorno.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/08/11/paul-bongiorno-outsourcing-blame-cant-keep-working-for-scott-morrison/
    Journalism expert Dennis Muller says that tensions are rising on coronavirus handling as the media take control of the accountability narrative.
    https://theconversation.com/tensions-rise-on-coronavirus-handling-as-the-media-take-control-of-the-accountability-narrative-144195
    Melbourne’s quarantine nightmare is not over, with fresh revelations that two hotels are battling major problems with security, infection control and tensions between medical staff, police and government officials says The Australian.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-melbourne-quarantine-hotels-facing-second-wave-of-fear-and-loathing/news-story/5d35b8d95ba84de71cf06ec73c536ab5
    Adrian Piccoli has an interesting idea for the funding of primary schools by governments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/governments-should-fully-fund-private-primary-schools-says-piccoli-20200810-p55kbu.html
    Shane Wright refers to an ABS study that shows people with higher levels of education and those born overseas are more likely to be taking substantial measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/covid-response-splinters-along-education-lines-abs-20200810-p55k9a.html
    Christopher Knaus reports that the Liberal party is attempting to organise at least three fundraising events in Canberra to coincide with the looming resumption of parliament, despite prior health advice warning of the heightened Covid-19 risk posed by sitting periods.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/11/liberal-party-plans-three-2500-a-head-fundraising-events-in-canberra-amid-covid-risk
    Plastic surgeon Neela Janakiramanan says that health professionals putting their lives on the line need better back-up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/health-professionals-putting-their-lives-on-the-line-need-better-back-up-20200810-p55k7h.html
    Allowing MPs to travel while Canberrans are stuck at the border smacks of double-standards says The Canberra Times’ Katie Burgess.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6871885/allowing-mps-to-travel-while-canberrans-stuck-at-border-smacks-of-double-standards/?cs=17318
    Greg Jericho begins this detailed contribution with, “More than anything, the current crisis has revealed the paucity of logic that has dominated economic debate for far too long. The obsession over debt and deficit was always silly, and it sure as heck made for easy analysis: deficit bad, small deficit less bad, surplus amazing. But it needs to be thrown in the bin.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/aug/11/australias-deficit-bad-surplus-amazing-mantra-should-finally-be-binned
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that Hong Kong police have arrested billionaire media tycoon Jimmy Lai on national security charges and raided his Apple Daily newspaper headquarters. The choke hold is being applied now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-police-raid-major-news-organisation-arrest-billionaire-owner-20200810-p55k9h.html
    Peter Hartcher examines the effect that Beijing’s efforts on censorship and suppression are having around the world and he points to Hollywood as a prime example.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/tom-cruise-s-jacket-is-a-little-detail-that-says-a-lot-about-hollywood-s-craven-attitude-to-china-20200810-p55k4k.html
    Australia’s biggest private employer group has warned Australia is now a two-speed economy and more jobs will be lost in Victoria’s critical retail sector if the dole is cut back before the critical Christmas trading season reports Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/retail-groups-warn-cutting-back-jobseeker-could-hit-employment-20200810-p55ka5.html
    A contentious NSW gas project is weeks away from approval. The Conversation provides three reasons it should be rejected.
    https://theconversation.com/a-contentious-nsw-gas-project-is-weeks-away-from-approval-here-are-3-reasons-it-should-be-rejected-144201
    The Morrison Government is using industry policy in a reverse and perverse fashion that is best understood as a form of predation, writes Dr Tim Thornton.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-covid-19-commission-industry-policy-in-reverse,14190
    Australians don’t have far to look to see governments effectively guiding their economies through the COVID-19 pandemic. Alan Austin surveys successful nations nearby.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/poor-decisions-are-wrecking-australias-economy-not-the-virus,14187
    The Future Fund has increased its cash holdings by about $10 billion since March, and new CEO Raphael Arndt says the fund is positioned to take advantage.
    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/future-fund-s-30b-crisis-response-20200810-p55kby
    There is every reason to fear another sudden market and economic collapse. But there are a surprising number of silver linings in this storm, writes Jim O’Neill.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/august-is-the-killing-season-could-2020-be-different-20200810-p55k59
    According to Daniel Hurst, Scott Morrison has been urged to avoid policies that trap children in poverty as he weighs up whether to cut unemployment benefits at the end of this year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/11/scott-morrison-urged-to-consider-children-living-in-poverty-before-cutting-unemployment-benefits
    Alexandra Smith points out some interesting employment arrangements involving iCare and Perrottet’s office.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-s-staff-audit-over-icare-labelled-a-sham-20200810-p55kb7.html
    Scott Morrison’s task of Senate negotiations over budget measures and industrial relations reform has become more complex after key South Australian Senator Rex Patrick quit the Centre Alliance party to become an independent says Andrew Tillett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-faces-new-senate-juggling-act-after-patrick-goes-solo-20200810-p55k81
    Anthony Galloway reports on the trouble a former AFP deputy commissioner, Ramzi Jabbour, has gotten himself into.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-afp-deputy-took-service-pistol-to-go-hunting-kangaroos-20200810-p55ka1.html
    Nick Bonyhady explains how Tim Wilson has waded into the fight over Daniel Andrews’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic, saying the state government has not been scrutinised enough over its response to COVID-19. So it’s scrutiny he wants? Perhaps he should look in his own party’s political backyard.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-liberal-mp-swipes-andrews-government-over-pandemic-response-20200810-p55kfq.html
    Jenna Price has written a nice, timely article on the pressures of office on government ministers. She says the insane pressure being applied to them cannot go on.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-insane-stress-on-our-political-leaders-right-now-can-t-go-on-20200810-p55k4m.html
    The National Parks Association of NSW and ex-Energy Australia chair Ted Woodley are considering a legal challenge to the $10 billion Snowy 2.0, which they say will push back the transition to renewable energy and destroy thousands of hectares of national park, in light of the fact that the whole project hinges on a 30-year-old report. which is being kept secret writes Callum Foote.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/snow-job-why-the-cover-up-over-snowy-hydro-2-0/
    Applied economist Mark Wooden puts his case for casual employment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/the-case-for-casual-employment-20200810-p55k8v.html
    Mike Pompeo has declared that the Belarus election was not free and fair.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/belarus-election-was-not-free-and-fair-us-secretary-of-state-pompeo-says-20200811-p55kgd.html

    Cartoon Corner

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    From the US










  31. Morning all

    Much thanks BK

    Another lovely morning in my part of the woods.
    This winter the weather has been very stable, a stark contrast to the covid crisis we are dealing with.

  32. Thanks BK. Two different tales of government scrutiny:

    Crowe tells us how federal officials will be shielded from direct scrutiny at the NSW inquiry into the Ruby Princess cruise ship

    Daniel Andrews is set to be grilled over his government’s handling of Victoria’s second coronavirus wave at a parliamentary inquiry. Mr Andrews will be the first witness called at the second sitting of the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee’s COVID-19 Inquiry today.

    There will always be more accountability under a Labor government than a Liberal government.

  34. Gotta say I found this comment rather wishy washy too. Although I do believe that the NSW CHO has most likely given different advice to the NSW premier…..

    Nisha Khot #MaskUp #BLM
    @Nishaobgyn
    ·
    10h
    But the rules are that 300 people can gather, right?

    So an individual can reflect on their activity & go, ‘I am doing a great job of mixing less.’
    Quote Tweet

    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    · 20h
    NSW CHO Dr Kerry Chant: “We would like to see less large gatherings, we would like to see less mixing in the community.”

    Asks everyone to “reflect on their activities and ensure they minimise as much as possible movements at this critical phase in our response.”

  35. lizzie @ #25 Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 – 5:53 am

    What a useless lot they are. “We have a plan” is the way that all the ministers respond to any question. Yet planning for the future is the last thing they do.

    Samuel Clark
    @sclark_melbs
    ·
    10m
    Aged Care Minister @richardmcolbeck tells @frankelly08 the federal government does have a plan for aged care which is “evolving” with the pandemic.

    We have lots of plans, we have the best plans, but …

    The situation is changing so fast that when we finally think we have a plan, we find we have to revise it again.

    He says the government has been providing advice and support to the sector since January.

    Thoughts and prayers!

  36. Sounds disastrous.

    Barry Tucker
    @btckr
    ·
    6m
    Lebanese govt resigned overnight & new elections expected to follow. This will solve nothing because Lebanon’s constitution assigns various roles to various religions and/or factions.
    They in turn control provision of services, which has resulted in no clean water or electricity.

  39. Barney

    What advice and support? How to rip off the ‘clients’ for profit?
    You don’t have to be a ‘Labor partisan’ to be angry at Andrews being blamed for this shitshow (thanks for the word, victoria!).

  40. ”Aged Care Minister @richardmcolbeck tells @frankelly08 the federal government does have a plan for aged care which is “evolving” with the pandemic.”

    Translation: ”we’re making it up as we go along”.

  41. Trump Abruptly Leaves Briefing, Led Away By Secret Service

    Donald Trump abruptly left a news conference at the White House late Monday, after a person was shot near the building, prompting Secret Service agents to usher the president out of the room.

    Trump returned about nine minutes later and said the incident occurred in the area around the White House but not within its gates. The U.S. Secret Service didn’t immediately comment.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/trump-abruptly-leaves-briefing-led-away-by-secret-service?srnd=premium-asia

  43. lizzie @ #39 Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 – 6:34 am

    Barney

    What advice and support? How to rip off the ‘clients’ for profit?
    You don’t have to be a ‘Labor partisan’ to be angry at Andrews being blamed for this shitshow (thanks for the word, victoria!).

    There are some industries that should never be allowed to be run as for profit businesses.

    This is one of them!!!!

  44. Richard Colbeck is responsible for a sector that could be potentially be devasted by a bad flu season, as we have every so often. Infection control and response to outbreaks is paramount in normal times. Why is he and the Federal Government being allowed to get away with their negligence?

  45. If Morrison was a genuine leader, in the 18 mths of non-sitting, he would have ordered all his ministers to come up with strategies for future development within their departments. I’m sure that various Labor PMs did that. It’s obvious CEO work.

    But all Scomo ever does is arse-covering.

  46. This could be the Morrison government but it’s President Man Baby in his latest coronavirus daily briefing.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    25m
    “Nursing homes are being protected like never before”

    One of his usual asides when he feels the need to comment on the stuff he hasn’t read until this moment

  48. Lizzie

    Morrisons job is to ensure that the spivs that support him and his govt continue to have all the money flowing to them, come rain hail or shine. Or in this case, pandemic,

  50. Trump is right, just not in the way he thinks.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    1m
    Trump claims that all the countries in the world are waiting to see who wins before they make a deal with him. As if he hasn’t been president for the past four years or something.

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