What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

Comments Page 51 of 54
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  1. Que?

    @iMusing
    ·
    10m
    here is the Health Minister, who is from Victoria, saying that his fellow Victorian MPs can decide for themselves whether to abide by CHO advice and self-isolate before the federal parliament finally sits.

  2. Laughtong

    Agree. A real pile on with the comments. Perhaps readers are becoming wise to the point that the media and their salivation over what’s happening here in Victoria is not helping. (Raf Epstein I’m looking at you…)

  3. Jacqui Maley was the journalist who cringingley referred to Scott Morrison as ‘The Father of the Nation’, after all.

  4. lizzie @ #2501 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 4:04 pm

    Que?

    @iMusing
    ·
    10m
    here is the Health Minister, who is from Victoria, saying that his fellow Victorian MPs can decide for themselves whether to abide by CHO advice and self-isolate before the federal parliament finally sits.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Translates as: “The medical advisors I depend on aren’t susceptible to financial threats, cause the Feds have no authority or capacity in Health.”

  5. lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 4:04 pm
    Que?
    @iMusing
    ·10m
    here is the Health Minister, who is from Victoria, saying that his fellow Victorian MPs can decide for themselves whether to abide by CHO advice and self-isolate before the federal parliament finally sits.

    The ACT Chief Minister has made clear what he and the ACT CHO want to happen:

    Chief Minister Andrew Barr has written to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, warning him that Victorian parliamentarians who are planning to return to Canberra “present a significant risk” in relation to COVID-19 transmission…

    Mr Barr has suggested to the Prime Minister that instead of commercial flights, parliamentarians should choose so-called Special Purpose flights, and strongly supports parliamentarians undertaking their full 14-day quarantine in the ACT. This would require them to be in Canberra by Tuesday (11 August).

    Chief Health Officer Dr Kerryn Coleman has advised MPs that some proposed alternative arrangements – including quarantining for 14 days in Victoria, or for seven days in Victoria and seven days in the ACT – would pose an increased risk that cannot be fully mitigated.

    Full quarantine measures will apply to MPs including random inspections by ACT Police and SES volunteers.

    https://the-riotact.com/barr-warns-victorian-mps-not-to-endanger-acts-safety/395116M

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #2492 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:36 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2485 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2482 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    michael @ #2477 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:35 pm

    They need a moderate Lib to be selected for Warringah to have any hope. I would not say no to Baird.

    Do we have a sock puppet in the house?

    Nah. nath = Michael

    this seems to be the post that piqued WB’s interest.

    michael (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
    Comment #1978
    Bugler

    This is a great site which examines the 350 schools closed by Kennett.

    http://learningfromthepast.com.au/what-are-lost-schools/

    Oh, I see. Well, Mr Bowe will be able to clear it up for us, no doubt. You never know, nath may have had a sock puppet for each hand. michael, Michael and nath the puppeteer. 🙂

  7. greg hunt : “i will. no special rules, no exemptions for me … for colleagues, i’ll leave that up to them” indeed, as he should, they’re liberals: “freemen of the law”. -a.v.

  8. C@tmomma @ #2507 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 4:20 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2492 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:36 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2485 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2482 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    michael @ #2477 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:35 pm

    They need a moderate Lib to be selected for Warringah to have any hope. I would not say no to Baird.

    Do we have a sock puppet in the house?

    Nah. nath = Michael

    this seems to be the post that piqued WB’s interest.

    michael (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
    Comment #1978
    Bugler

    This is a great site which examines the 350 schools closed by Kennett.

    http://learningfromthepast.com.au/what-are-lost-schools/

    Oh, I see. Well, Mr Bowe will be able to clear it up for us, no doubt. You never know, nath may have had a sock puppet for each hand. michael, Michael and nath the puppeteer. 🙂

    No, poster Michael is not a sock puppet and should not be impugned.

  9. I meant to post this earlier. The media don’t seem to understand the need for pure info.

    Johnny Boy@GeeForce77
    · 7h

    The people trust Dan.
    A quarter of a million tune into his daily presser via @abcmelbourne Facebook + many more on radio & ABC24 etc.
    His briefings are the goto info source for Victorians on #COVID19Vic #insiders

  10. No surprise to see Mike Baird supporting Dan Andrews. Another sanctimonious moralist. Tried to ban dog racing and got the woke left plaudits. But in a fact a privateer and job cutter on the economic side.

    And so what if Andrews is ‘working his guts out’.

  11. Carrick Ryan
    @realCarrickRyan
    ·
    2m
    When the history of this pandemic is written, let it never be forgotten which side of politics questioned the value of saving lives if it costs them money.

    The IPA is a caricature of heartless conservatism that we’re forced to take seriously because of the money behind it.

  12. lizzie

    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 4:44 pm
    Carrick Ryan
    @realCarrickRyan
    ·
    2m
    When the history of this pandemic is written, let it never be forgotten which side of politics questioned the value of saving lives if it costs them money.

    It depends on who gets to write the history. Them with de money tend to be the ones who get to ‘write it’ and they sure as hell won’t want that truth to be told 🙁

  13. Lizzie
    Who the hell is Carrick Ryan ? Never heard of him/her.
    That’s the problem with reposting tweets. They mean jack shit and add nothing.

  14. poroti @ #2518 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 4:41 pm

    Re sock puppet. So posting under a fake name is OK but a fake name using a fake name is not. Makes sense 🙂

    nath admitted he did it to troll Cat.

    Most posters can be disagreable at times. But, that’s just plain malicious.

    You can support that behaviour. But, I don’t.

  15. Seb Costello who works for channel 9 and 3mmm radio, son of Peter.
    He replied to a tweet thread of health minister Mikakos.

    Another MP hasnt appreciated Sebs tweet

    Steve Dimopoulos MP
    @Steve_Dimo
    ·
    2h
    I know of two Costellos who had important jobs. You aren’t one of them. But if you want to see what an important job is, ask those fighting Victoria’s war on Covid. So inappropriate Seb, but do take care mate.
    Quote Tweet

    Seb Costello
    @SebCostello9
    · 4h
    If someone with an important job is sending rambling tweets after midnight, it’s probably time they let someone else do the important job and focused on looking after themselves.
    Take care everyone.

  16. Taylormade

    Oh, I’m so sorry, yer honer. I forgot to add the notation.

    Carrick Ryan @realCarrickRyan

    Former Federal Agent working in Counter Terrorism.

    Masters in Politics and International Relations;
    Bachelors in Media and Communications.

  17. I’m certainly having flashbacks to when journalists were facing a similar backlash to their methods. Of course, as it was then, it is the customers who are wrong and it’s Raf Epstein instead of Jon Faine trying to take both sides of the debate (but still Jacqueline Maley writing a shallow article about how the media is actually right).

    Plus ça change…

  18. porotisays: Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    It depends on who gets to write the history. Them with de money tend to be the ones who get to ‘write it’ and they sure as hell won’t want that truth to be told

    ****************************************************

    “History Is Written by the Victors”

    Even Herman Goring recognized this : Göring at the Nuremberg trials.is reported to have said, “Der Sieger wird immer der Richter und der Besiegte stets der Angeklagte sein,” which more or less translates to “The victor will always be the judge, and the vanquished the accused.”

  19. Greensborough Growler,
    Here are the comments by Mr Bowe and nath, where both Michael is identified by Mr Bowe, and michael is admitted by nath:

    michael (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
    Comment #1978
    Bugler

    This is a great site which examines the 350 schools closed by Kennett.

    http://learningfromthepast.com.au/what-are-lost-schools/

    William Bowe (Block)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 6:12 pm
    Comment #2018
    Here’s a curious thing. Two commenters, Nath and Michael, with two different email addresses. Except a little earlier on, a comment comes into the system with the name of Michael but the email address on Nath. Who, on closer analysis, turn out to have the same IP address. What’s that all about, I wonder.

    nath (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 6:27 pm
    Comment #2030
    William Bowe says:
    Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 6:12 pm

    Here’s a curious thing. Two commenters, Nath and Michael, with two different email addresses. Except a little earlier on, a comment comes into the system with the name of Michael but the email address on Nath. Who, on closer analysis, turn out to have the same IP address. What’s that all about, I wonder.
    ______________________
    Guilty of some slight sock puppetry. I’ve very occasionally used michael to make some tongue in cheek comments. Such as recommending a medal for C@t.

  20. Lizzie

    I’ve lost a lot of respect for Epstein now. He is becoming more shrill each day almost like a Neil Mitchell but without the grumps and petty vindictiveness.

    Epstein regularly releases the numbers each day before they are officially confirmed.

    A friend of mine a pyschologist slapped him down publicly on Twitter a week or so ago for causing unnecessary anxiety for the general community.

  21. Grant

    I’m not pleased with the publication of the numbers in advance, either. It then gives rise to various media comments which are not necessarily in line with the Health assessment.

  22. Historyintime says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 12:11 pm
    Victoria,

    I dont see Nath as a troll. But even so, I don’t mind a bit of invective and cheap-shotery so long as it is not mean or personally abusive. Otherwise, things can get a bit boring

    Among their many offensive moments the most repellent was their pimping of Chloe Shorten to Rupert Murdoch.

    I’m glad that the Lib troll has gone.

  23. Plus the aggravating thing about it that those same ABC journalists and presenters would be afraid to do it if the numbers were coming from the feds because they fear for their jobs too much.

  24. Shellbell,

    I think that’s a possible combination of needing an account to comment, moderation, and commenters going out of their way to seem polite so as not to be included amongst the very people Maley was criticising.

    But I don’t happen to read comments on the 9 papers articles all that often so don’t know what the usual standard is.

  25. @WhistlingWhist
    · 18h
    Just tweeted about this Alex. The skies overhead for last 4 days are a scene out of Apocalypse Now Ride of the Valkyries as the entitled rich chopper up to Buller for their snow fix. I live at the base of Mt Buller. 6 Covid cases brought in so far. Nice to be rich and immune hey twitter.com/AlexDevantier/…

  26. Biden apparently has chosen his VP, the current bookie odds only have 3 in the frame….

    Candidate Odds
    Kamala Harris -110
    Susan Rice +250
    Gretchen Whitmer +500

  27. Finally got around to watching insiders
    Cormann made two comments that made me want to,scream
    He stated that Liz Harvey suggested lockdown of borders to McGowan who said it was unconstitutional. I had not heard that before but heard lots of references to her trying to get them reopened.
    The other comment was that private business is reason sidle for creating 9 out of 10 jobs. As all government agencies are having their budgets cut it would make it difficult to create jobs. Private business has also taken over most of the public services, it stands to reason if you are the holders of nearly all business you will create more jobs. Pity that some of those industries hadn’t stayed in public hands because they would be creating more jobs in each area than the private sector currently does.

  28. William,

    I’m not a statistical expert or anything but I’m not sure how the total ALP primary is higher than total support among either men or women (assuming there wasn’t an alternate response offered that they’ve neglected to include in the tally).

  29. GG

    They would be quite logical choices. Although Biden did state VP would be a woman of colour. Susan Rice or Kamala Harris.

  30. I’m leaning towards Kamala Harris. She has proven that she is a good attack dog, even if it was Joe Biden she was attacking, and would run rings around Mike Pence at the VP debate.

    It is said that some on the Progressive Left might object to her because she was a Prosecutor and some may find that too close to the Police, which the BLM movement is up in arms against right now, but not as close as Val Demmings, who actually was a leader of a Police Force in Florida. Not to mention that Kamala Harris has the ability to take over on Day 1 after Biden, should anything happen to him.

  31. Re sock puppet. So posting under a fake name is OK but a fake name using a fake name is not. Makes sense

    Posting without using your real name is for anonymity. Posting on one blog under two names (fake or otherwise) is duplicitous.

    I have no idea if it is worthy of being banned. But I can see it is in a different level to other misdemeanours that are forgiven. And by his comments after being sprung, I think nath knew it.

    Dont fret. I am sure someone equally determined to stir the pot will come along.

  32. Yep. In a nutshell

    John Hewson
    @JohnRHewson
    I see National Cabinet is a creation for Morrison to take credit for what works and a framework to blame the states when things are not so flash – be assured that “We Are All in this Together”

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