What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. Grant @ #2448 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 1:25 pm

    Jim Penman from Jim’s Mowing etc has sent an open letter to the Premier Dan Andrews demanding his resignation if sole traders cannot keep working during Stage 4.

    The Premier’s response including the statement along the lines: would you prefer perhaps a six month hard lockdown rather than six weeks if everyone was allowed to go back to work now.

    (via ABC news app)

    That Penman stooge is the epitome of the soulless Libertarian free marketeer who urge the Coalition on.

    Dan Andrews should enact a new law to penalise people like him. Call it The Incitement to a Public Health Threat Law.

    Jeez, what is it about some people that they can’t go without their drug, money, even for a little while!?!

  2. Donations cap has been on the agenda for years Lizzie, though obviously some interests are not keen on broadcasting any discussion on the influence of lobbyists and vested interests in politics.

    Even had Albo showing interest/support in capping donations in Feb this year. Though it seems Labor is still bereft of any policy themselves.

    Our plan to clean up politics:
    https://greens.org.au/platform/democracy
    Ban political donations from mining, property development, tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. Cap all other donations and make sure every donation over $1000 is disclosed publicly, in real time
    Ban MPs and senior staff from accepting lobbying jobs after they retire and require the publication of the subject of all meetings with lobbyists
    Root out corruption by establishing a federal anti-corruption commission that can undertake investigations of politicians
    Protect the rights of citizens and community groups to speak out
    Ensure all of us are represented and able to participate in our democracy
    Save the ABC & SBS

    Greens move to cap political donations
    MEDIA RELEASE – LARISSA WATERS 24 FEB 2020
    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-move-cap-political-donations-0

    The Greens will move to get big money out of politics this week by introducing a bill to cap donations to political parties at $1000 per year and to ban all party political donations from dirty industries buying influence: the mining, banking, gambling, alcohol and property industries.

    Greens Senate Leader and spokesperson on democracy, Senator Larissa Waters, said the Greens bill could once and for all remove the influence of big money and start restoring integrity into our parliament.

    “The community wants its democracy back. They’re sick of their interests being sold out to the highest bidder,” she said.

    “Opposition leader Anthony Albanese yesterday for the first time showed support for the long-held Greens policy of capping political donations.

    “Perhaps Albo realised the corrosive impact of big money on politics now Clive Palmer lost the election for Labor.

    “Nonetheless, we welcome his support but donations caps must be meaningful and low.

  3. C@t

    It would be same as those ‘entitled’ people (i.e. the ‘Aspen’ couple) who were caught up at Mt Buller in the last few days.

    It would be good if Penman was charged with something along the lines of endangering public health etc. but the Murdocracy and some in the ABC would have a field day.

  4. Frydenberg say “People want answers.”

    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    22h
    I agree. I also want answers to Aged care failures, Sports and grants rorts, Robodebt, the AWU raid, bush fire failures, no tender contracts to former Liberal staffers, Stuart Robert’s Rolexes and internet usage, and Angus Taylor’s Watergate and Grassgate.

  5. Mike Baird is right because for the most part the governments are doing a good job but Morrison is too quick to roll over to the media reactionaries when a more confident leader would say i hear you and we will support you but we must deal with this. The knee jerky approach from Morrison is why business is reacting like it is because it can’t see a way forward.

  6. lizzie @ #2458 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 1:49 pm

    Frydenberg say “People want answers.”

    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    22h
    I agree. I also want answers to Aged care failures, Sports and grants rorts, Robodebt, the AWU raid, bush fire failures, no tender contracts to former Liberal staffers, Stuart Robert’s Rolexes and internet usage, and Angus Taylor’s Watergate and Grassgate.

    Mr Chalmers said earlier this morning.

  7. mundo

    I think it’s only fair to tell you I am blocking you so that I can no longer read your fatuous responses to my posts.

  8. I never understand why a political figure who wants to praise an opposing political figure needs to start off with “While I don’t agree with…”.

    Has a kind of fake or unnecessary magnanimity about it.

  9. Shellbell
    I read that to be a passive aggressive way of saying i agree with Andrews and everyone should get stuffed but to your point i think it reflects the tribal nature of partisanship which frowns against saying good things about the otherside.

  10. Surely it’s just a recasting of the classic free speech statement of principle:

    “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”

    The point being, of course, that there is more weight in defending free speech that you don’t approve of than defending free speech that you do approve of. Defending something you approve of isn’t hard.

    The segway to comments across the political divide isn’t a perfect match, but the idea that reasonably casting a statement as support from a political opponent gives something more rhetorical weight seems to have a long history.

  11. Grant

    No, I haven’t been up the garage/workshop to search for it. It was a very dark grey tabby, never seen before. I wouldn’t mind if it caught the rabbits that are eating my lettuces. Unfortunately it’s (a little) too small to bring down the deer that are ruining some shrubs and leave potholes in the lawns.

  12. The Warringah LNP could preselect a Drover’s Dog and it would win unless the ALP, Unions and GetUp spend many millions once again.

  13. Mike Baird was the NSW State member for Manly on Sydney’s Northern beaches, the same general area as Tony Abbott’s former electorate.

    EDIT: of course it doesn’t matter how “moderate” a Liberal candidate might be, a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Coal, a vote for the big banks, a vote for austerity and privatisation, a vote for job insecuirity and wage stagnation, a vote for the religious right and a vote against the environment and climate action.

  14. C@tmomma @ #5125 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:30 pm

    Victoria @ #2469 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:12 pm

    I reckon Baird is setting the ground to ensure that Morrison and Berejiklian get a pass for their stuff ups too.

    I keep wondering whether Mike Baird might stand for the Liberal Party in Warringah at the next election as a Moderate Lib like they have just elected.

    For sale: one soul. Rehabilitated after only “slight” soiling by association with the Banksters & Developers Broderbund. The Snobby Spivs of Warringah would never countenance common associations like that of Gladys the Office Manager with the oiks of the AHA. Difficult to see who else they could go to, now that Brad Hazzard cracked under pressure – besides which, he’s the next for the sacrificial alter. Piggy Elliot (ex AHA head and junior officer is sooo Northwest Biblebasher, and the young Abbott impersonator Damien Perrottet(offensive) has been caught with his hands in the till again. Sigh. It’s soo hard being one of the elite.

  15. Jim Penman from Jim’s Mowing etc has sent an open letter to the Premier Dan Andrews demanding his resignation if sole traders cannot keep working during Stage 4.

    Penman comes across as similar to Mr Harvey Norman – a hands on millionaire who wants no restraints on his ability to make money from his franchise businesses.

    He’s not exactly a Little Aussie Battler – his website lists no less than 54 types of franchise businesses and Wikipedia states “In 2018 Jim’s Group has a turnover of over $400 million, with more than 3,800 franchisees in four countries, Australia, Great Britain, New Zealand and Canada”. (Edited)

    https://jims.net

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Penman#cite_note-39

  16. Jim Penman is just a greedy bastard with no care for anyone but himself, his family probably, and his bank account.

  17. Alan Kohler
    @AlanKohler
    ·
    8m
    God forbid we should be open to new ideas. But anyway what I’m saying is the economic future isn’t going to be like the past – let’s face it the present isn’t – so a rethink on policy is required, and I don’t it should be left to Treasury and RBA alone.

  18. Jim Penman is just a greedy bastard with no care for anyone but himself, his family probably, and his bank account.
    ____
    A real GDP grower who clips the ticket on every job his franchisees toil over.

  19. Wow! Another example of ‘clipping the ticket’. What a grifter! Though on behalf of the American government ostensibly this time, but I just read that Trump has demanded a cut of the sale of Tik Tok to Microsoft, or he will still ban it! 😯

    Last Friday, Trump said he’s ready to sign an executive order to ban TikTok in the U.S. He later agreed to put the ban on hold after Microsoft expressed interest to acquire TikTok and make it a true American company. But as of Thursday night, Microsoft needs to complete the deal in 45 days and cut the government a “substantial share” of the sale, as Trump ordered earlier this week.

    It’s unclear how the government will receive this proposed payment, or under what context. Still, it sounds absurd enough that in free-market America a sitting president—especially one whose administration has been so lenient with corporate taxes and other issues—is allowed to block a consumer product, put a deadline on a corporate merger talk and demand a transaction fee.

    While doing all three things at the same time will likely draw legal challenges, the president is allowed to do at least some of them.

    https://observer.com/2020/08/trump-tiktok-wechat-ban-legal-analysis-us-china-relations/

  20. Victoria opined:

    I reckon Baird is setting the ground to ensure that Morrison and Berejiklian get a pass for their stuff ups too.

    Of course he is. Funny how after Murdoch and Costello sent their media goons after Andrews, and failed to get his delusionally demanded resignation, or even much opprobrium attached to their target (if they have, where are the polls to prove it?), suddenly Bambi comes out all lovely dovey and kumba-ya, preaching Peace On Earth… for everybody.

    The political assassination attempt on Andrews is backfiring on them, and they know it. The reason there haven’t been angry mobs bristling with torches and pitchforks in the streets of Melbourne is that Andrews is trusted. He came through for Victoria during the bushfires. They were literally his baptism of fire.

    ScoMo, on the other hand, has been carried by Andrews and the other Premiers since last December when the fires took hold. They have prodded and pushed him into almost every decision he has made. His popularity, while superficially high, is brittle. You’re only a brilliant as your last marketing campaign. His approval will snap in half at the first sign of reversion to type.

    Distrusted by his own party, with a succession of failures behind him going back years, even decades, Morrison will be needing all the assistance he can get.

    Andrews is authentic. Morrison is the phony.

  21. C@tmomma @ #2485 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2482 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    michael @ #2477 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 2:35 pm

    They need a moderate Lib to be selected for Warringah to have any hope. I would not say no to Baird.

    Do we have a sock puppet in the house?

    Nah. nath = Michael

    this seems to be the post that piqued WB’s interest.

    michael (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
    Comment #1978
    Bugler

    This is a great site which examines the 350 schools closed by Kennett.

    http://learningfromthepast.com.au/what-are-lost-schools/

  22. For those with access to the Age/SMH
    Jacqueline Maley’s negative article about Dan Andrews is drawing the ire of readers.
    She is getting a pasting in the comments. Interesting reading.

  23. “lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 3:41 pm
    Where does Morrison hide on on Sundays? He’s told us he can no longer go to his church.”

    He could be honing his curry making skills in preparation for the next season of MasterChef.

  24. laughtong @ #5144 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 3:47 pm

    For those with access to the Age/SMH
    Jacqueline Maley’s negative article about Dan Andrews is drawing the ire of readers.
    She is getting a pasting in the comments. Interesting reading.

    I think the SpivMedia (both Faux News Corpse & The Bad Costello’s Nein-Unfairfax divisions) have fumbled the Andrews attack as determinedly badly as they handled JG’s misogyny speech.

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