What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  2. Bugler, in the “total” column, the party results exclude the 7.3% undecided. As a result, the sum of the numbers in that column, including the undecided, is 107.3%. But this is not true of the breakdown columns, where the sum of the numbers including the undecided is 100%. I can understand why you’re confused.

  3. And that Liberal figure looks a bit weird too, given it’s equal to the support amongst males despite the Liberals having less support amongst women.

    … and Gen Xers are oddly Green friendly and Zoomers very pro-Labor. I could well be right but goes against conventional wisdom.

  6. GG

    The only known face to face meeting Biden has had in recent times with a leading candidate was with Whitmer last Friday. A strong Governor already used to the crap which will come from the Repugs.

    A mid-west choice is safer Electoral College wise than Harris From California and Susan Rice who is probably tarred with the Clinton brush. Biden’s camp is working very hard to rebuild the Blue Wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Whitmer is from that region, smart and photogenic.

    The black caucus may be miffed, but their vote should be locked in against the racist Dotard.

  7. The SES has ordered an evacuation of Moruya on the NSW far south coast due to heavy rain and flooding. Residents are being told to leave the high danger area immediately and move to safety.

  10. Bugler:

    “I’m not a statistical expert or anything but I’m not sure how the total ALP primary is higher than total support among either men or women (assuming there wasn’t an alternate response offered that they’ve neglected to include in the tally).”

    The left-hand column (total) has the undecided voters reassigned to a party they lean towards, the other columns don’t. (That’s why there’s a break in the thick black line above the last row.) 7.3% undecided, so the original Labor vote would be something like 37.6*(100-7.3) = 34.8%.

  12. I watched a interview some US TV presenter does regularly with 3 Trump voters from Kent County Michigan. 2 have changed their minds. One is on the fence. Asked how he can still be on the fence he says…. I am waiting to see who Biden chooses for VP.

    Well, that is BS. This chap is looking for an excuse. If Biden picks a VP the ‘fence sitter’ approves of he will no doubt find another reason to vote Trump.

  13. Simon Katich @ #2562 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 5:56 pm

    I watched a interview some US TV presenter does regularly with 3 Trump voters from Kent County Michigan. 2 have changed their minds. One is on the fence. Asked how he can still be on the fence he says…. I am waiting to see who Biden chooses for VP.

    Well, that is BS. This chap is looking for an excuse. If Biden picks a VP the ‘fence sitter’ approves of he will no doubt find another reason to vote Trump.

    They always do.

  14. If you look at the candidates’ history and experience and ability to take over I reckon Susan Rice is the best qualified. Also no potential domestic policy downsides.

  16. As a starry eyed dreamer, I’d like to see Barack Obama as SoS, H Clinton in charge of health, and possibly Mrs Obama as Postmaster General.

  20. If Harris isn’t chosen as running mate and Biden wins, I don’t think it’s that likely she would become AG. It’s not really worth throwing away a still early Senate career for, nor is it that high profile. And, considering there might be some serious investigations going on, you’d prefer a competent but probably uninteresting technocrat (not that Harris isn’t competent) over somebody appointed to it as a consolation prize.

  21. Rational Leftist @ #2570 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    If Harris isn’t chosen as running mate and Biden wins, I don’t think it’s that likely she would become AG. It’s not really worth throwing away a still early Senate career for, nor is it that high profile. And, considering there might be some serious investigations going on, you’d prefer a competent but probably uninteresting technocrat (not that Harris isn’t competent) over somebody appointed to it as a consolation prize.

    Fair points. But, the VP job is largely ceremonial and dealing with Congress.

    Both Harris and Rice are people with jobs to be done.

  22. If you look at the candidates’ history and experience and ability to take over I reckon Susan Rice is the best qualified. Also no potential domestic policy downsides.

    Her son is a vocal Trumper and she does have connection to the Benghazi scandal. Also, she’s never campaigned for anything or spoken to the press as a candidate rather than an expert. While she is definitely a good choice (and I mentioned her as a possibility on here before) she is not without her flaws.

    I do however think that, unlike Harris with the AG spot, if she isn’t the running mate, she will be a favourite for Secretary of State – if Biden wins.

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #2569 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    Rational Leftist @ #2570 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    If Harris isn’t chosen as running mate and Biden wins, I don’t think it’s that likely she would become AG. It’s not really worth throwing away a still early Senate career for, nor is it that high profile. And, considering there might be some serious investigations going on, you’d prefer a competent but probably uninteresting technocrat (not that Harris isn’t competent) over somebody appointed to it as a consolation prize.

    Fair points. But, the VP job is largely ceremonial and dealing with Congress.

    Both Harris and Rice are people with jobs to be done.

    Yep, LBJ was largely ceremonial….

  24. I do however think that, unlike Harris with the AG spot, if she isn’t the running mate, she will be a favourite for Secretary of State – if Biden wins.

    Or the first African American Woman on the Supreme Court. Which is my preference. There for life.

  27. Dick Cheney was hardly ceremonial either

    The trend is for the VP to be given more real tasks, and moreso with Biden’s age.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 6:14 pm
    I just made a face mask out of a sock! Huzzah!

    Don’t forget to wash it before wearing.

  30. Yep, LBJ was largely ceremonial….

    If it wasn’t for a bullet in 1963, he largely was – well not quite, he was an active administration member with a meaty role (Johnson wouldn’t have taken VP just to sit around for 4-8 years and break a few Senate ties.)

    Modern VPs usually get given lots of responsibilities to lure them into actually accepting the position. And, often, the chance of being a favourite to be the next nominee sweetens the deal.

    Once upon a time, it was seen as such an unimportant role that it was usually given to elder politicians as a retirement gift to cap off their career with and was considered more a part of the legislative branch than the executive.

  31. Simon Katichsays:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 5:56 pm

    “I watched a interview some US TV presenter does regularly with 3 Trump voters from Kent County Michigan. 2 have changed their minds. One is on the fence. Asked how he can still be on the fence he says…. I am waiting to see who Biden chooses for VP.

    Well, that is BS. This chap is looking for an excuse. If Biden picks a VP the ‘fence sitter’ approves of he will no doubt find another reason to vote Trump.”

    So ….. 1 in 3 previous Trump voters will probably find a reason to still vote for him.

    That still adds up to a resounding loss.

    Here’s hopes

  34. Rational Leftist @ #2572 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    If you look at the candidates’ history and experience and ability to take over I reckon Susan Rice is the best qualified. Also no potential domestic policy downsides.

    Her son is a vocal Trumper and she does have connection to the Benghazi scandal. Also, she’s never campaigned for anything or spoken to the press as a candidate rather than an expert. While she is definitely a good choice (and I mentioned her as a possibility on here before) she is not without her flaws.

    I do however think that, unlike Harris with the AG spot, if she isn’t the running mate, she will be a favourite for Secretary of State – if Biden wins.

    She has a lot of characteristics which would make it easier for former Republican voters to vote for the ticket. Even the family political differences would probably strike a chord with many.

    Benghazi I would suspect is only an issue for the base of the base of Trump.

  35. A running mate has one job: to balance the ticket (i.e. fill a perceived shortcoming the candidate has) and not lose the candidate votes. That’s it. How active their Vice Presidency will be is totally up to the President (after some discussion and negotiation.)

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 6:14 pm

    “I just made a face mask out of a sock! Huzzah!”

    Careful how you fit it. You don’t want foot in mouth.

  37. C@tmomma @ #2574 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    I do however think that, unlike Harris with the AG spot, if she isn’t the running mate, she will be a favourite for Secretary of State – if Biden wins.

    Or the first African American Woman on the Supreme Court. Which is my preference. There for life.

    She’s not a lawyer. Yet another plus in the US electoral context

  39. ajm
    Benghazi is representative of much of the actual fuckitude of Obama and Hilary’s foreign policy. It was all about, after their fuck up of toppling Qaddafi, sending arms to their next big fuck up in Syria.

  40. ajm: “She’s not a lawyer. Yet another plus in the US electoral context”

    Who are you saying isn’t a lawyer? Harris is definitely a lawyer.

  41. AJM

    What’s this Kamala Harris is not a lawyer?

    Born in Oakland, California, Harris is a graduate of Howard University and University of California, Hastings College of the Law. Harris began her career in the Alameda County District Attorney’s Office before being recruited to the San Francisco District Attorney’s Office and later the City Attorney of San Francisco’s office. In 2003, she was elected the 27th District Attorney of San Francisco, serving until 2011.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris

  43. C@tmomma @ #2574 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    I do however think that, unlike Harris with the AG spot, if she isn’t the running mate, she will be a favourite for Secretary of State – if Biden wins.

    Or the first African American Woman on the Supreme Court. Which is my preference. There for life.

    She’s not a lawyer. Yet another plus in the US electoral context

    poroti @ #2589 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:47 pm

    ajm
    Benghazi is representative of much of the actual fuckitude of Obama and Hilary’s foreign policy. It was all about, after their fuck up of toppling Qaddafi, sending arms to their next big fuck up in Syria.

    I suspect it doesn’t play that way with a lot of US voters who aren’t really into foreign policy. Benghazi was able to be weaponized because Americans died but Rice didn’t really have executive responsibility for that where Clinton did.

  47. It doesn’t matter what you think of Benghazi or what the truth of the matter is, what matters is: as a candidate, do you want your opponents and the media to start talking about it (and the few degrees of separation from Hillary Clinton and emails) again during the last dozen weeks of the campaign?

  48. My dear dog, Boogie, without provocation, attacked anor tonight in the trailer park. Though no blood was drawn, she’s stronger than a Mallee bull.

  49. Rick Wilson confirmed in an interview the other day that, while eminently qualified for the VP role, Team Trump would go hell for leather on Benghazi if she were Biden’s running mate.

    Whoever Biden nominates can’t be a distraction. Rice would be a distraction.

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