What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. lizzie @ #2242 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 8:18 am

    “I know for a fact that briefing from senior figures in the govt is encouraging journalists to criticize Premier Andrews…” – Malcolm Farr

    But the criticism wasn’t strong enough and many Victorians defended Andrews, so Morrison sent Josh out to stoke the fire.

    Stoking — stoking – From “The Australian”

    While “The Australian” sales are diminishing – I guess that these items will be picked up, yea – even unto “Your ABC”.

  2. SK:

    Today’s Republicans have ceded any legitimacy they once may have had as ‘law and order’ and national security aficionados.

  10. Just saw a huge tabby cat, as big as a fox, sneaking into the open door of my garage. I hope the dogs don’t notice, but I’m happy if it keeps the rats down.

  12. Bright and sunny in Sydney with another 35-50 mm of rain forecast for later. There have been falls up to 150 mm on the NSW South Coast and hinterland.

  13. p
    Roasted beans for breakfast atm.

    Waiting on my sourdough to get that bronze hue… then wait for it to cool a little… then solid breakfast.

  14. lizzie:

    As long as it’s just the rats the cat kills. I interrupted a neighbour’s cat stalking a bandicoot in my driveway during the week when I was leaving early. The bandicoot was completely unaware of the impending peril stalking it.

  16. citizen @ #2261 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    The Canberra Times has a “subscriber only” article with this teaser:

    Labor’s primary vote is set to fall, but not by enough to prevent the Barr government winning another term at this year’s ACT election, new polling suggests.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6868378/labor-on-track-to-win-2020-act-election-despite-losing-votes-poll/?cs=14225

    Do any enlightened persons have details?

    Ten weeks out from the October 17 ballot, progressive think tank The Australia Institute has published polling results which indicate an expanded Greens vote will help carry Labor over the line.

    The Greens would receive 14 per cent of first preference votes, a major jump on the 10.3 per cent it polled at the last election.

    About 9.5 per cent of respondents said they would vote for a minor party or independent.

    Newcastle 11℃ – feels like 8℃ – may get to 15℃

  18. fess

    Unfortunately no interesting mammals here. The cat is more likely to go for birds, I think. It’s probably feral, there are two uninhabited houses close by.

  29. Reached 21 deg here (Maitland NSW) yesterday afternoon after raining until about 1pm. Only got to 11 deg on Friday.

    Pleased to hear PVO warm the feds against the blame game just now too.

  30. Grrr.

    Insiders ABC
    @InsidersABC
    ·
    1m
    .
    @MathiasCormann
    says it is still the Federal Government’s “current intention” to wind back the rate of JobKeeper and JobSeeker at the end of the next month.

    “At the moment, our transition is phased to the end of March.”

  34. lizzie @ #2280 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 9:30 am

    Grrr.

    Insiders ABC
    @InsidersABC
    ·
    1m
    .
    @MathiasCormann
    says it is still the Federal Government’s “current intention” to wind back the rate of JobKeeper and JobSeeker at the end of the next month.

    “At the moment, our transition is phased to the end of March.”

    And then back on the bones of their arse for the 10%+ Unemployed!?!

  35. I can’t understand Cormann – his speech is always just a list of cliches.

    Will that be his last appearance? I do hope so.

  36. Why does anybody bother interviewing Matthias Cormann?

    “We will be doing what is appropriate at the appropriate time and in a manner which enhances the greatest fiscal outcome for the most inclusive number of stakeholders who, at the end of the day, have responded in a teamwork environment, to any measure, or measures that are appropriately applied at the time at which they are applied.”

  37. @broomstick33
    ·
    2m
    #insiders interesting to see the entire quote from Jennifer Coates .. including the words “to which they know the answers” .. what part of that phrase do the Murdoch hacks and their supporters not understand?

  40. “We will be doing what is appropriate at the appropriate time and in a manner which enhances fiscal outcome for the most inclusive number of stakeholders who, at the end of the day, respond in a teamwork environment, to any measure that are appropriately applied at the time at which they are applied.”

    😆

    Sir Humphrey would be most impressed!

  41. Scrott and crew must be a little concerned about something being revealed. The Cormannator is the go to guy to send out when you want to say nothing at all.

  42. Cormann quoted by BB @9:35

    “We will be doing what is appropriate at the appropriate time and in a manner which enhances the greatest fiscal outcome for the most inclusive number of stakeholders who, at the end of the day, have responded in a teamwork environment, to any measure, or measures that are appropriately applied at the time at which they are applied.”

    Sounds like this is Cormann’s source: http://www.plainenglish.co.uk/gobbledygook-generator.html

  43. Phillip Lodge@phlogga
    ·
    1m
    It’s time Andrews adopted the Morrison manual in dealing with the press. “I’ve answered that question. Next” or “This is not your press conference, Rachel, it’s time to give someone else a go” or “One last question and I’m finishing” or “I think you know the answer. All done?”

    It’s because he doesn’t do that, that we trust him.

  44. Terminator @ #2279 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 9:28 am

    Reached 21 deg here (Maitland NSW) yesterday afternoon after raining until about 1pm. Only got to 11 deg on Friday.

    Pleased to hear PVO warm the feds against the blame game just now too.

    PvO trying to make it a fair fight given Labor doesn’t quite know what to do about the big boys who have started kicking sand in the faces again.

  45. There is no excusing the Premier not knowing which department is responsible for the hotel quarantine when logic says it is the health department’s job.

  47. Mexicanbeemer @ #2220 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 7:48 am

    There is no excusing the Premier not knowing which department is responsible for the hotel quarantine when logic would say it was the health department’s job.

    Assumption is the mother of all f’ ups.

    What happens if your assumption is wrong?

    Premier, why did you lie when you were asked which Department was responsible for hotel quarantine?

  48. Why is it that @StephenKing always attracts these Dunning Kruger dickheads who don’t have the wit to get the joke?

    He posts sensible things about Trump. That attracts all the crazies.

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