Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,482 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

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  2. “ Premier Berejiklian will be doing a presser at 11.30 am

    I notice that 12,000 tests conducted in NSW.”

    Blessed day. That’s two tests for every koala still alive in the NSW bush.

    #koalakiller

  5. Thanks KayJay, my battering down of the hatches around here thankfully appears unwarranted at this stage at least.

    Edit: while battering down of the hatches I also battened them down

  7. This sort of crap is unhelpful

    We’re doomed’: Large crowd spotted queuing for free doughnuts at Krispy Kreme

    Ash CantYahoo News Australia14 July 2020
    Police were called to manage crowds at several locations across Sydney when a doughnut chain held a promotion which involved handing out the sweet treats by the dozen for free.

    Due to some missing out on a “chance to really celebrate”, Krispy Kreme offered 36,000 packs of doughnuts to anyone whose birthday fell between 13 March and 13 July, in a promotion to commemorate the company’s 83rd birthday.

    People swarmed the stores across Sydney to claim their free dozen doughnuts and supplies sold out across the country, according to posts on Krispy Kreme Australia’s Facebook page.

  8. I also watched and enjoyed Julia Gillard last night. Sh is definitely the most articulate PM we have had in recent times.

    On the parenting payment, I personally thought it was another beat up by the media at the time, to show her as being mean and out of touch. I admit I hadn’t been closely following the conversation at the time it occurred, too busy as a single parent working to pay the bills and get ahead. I was even unaware she just bought forward grandfathering rather than it being a new initiative.

    As a single parent myself, I always saw the responsibility to provide for my kids as an extension of the need to provide for myself. It seems that in the minds of some having children is tantamount to being a homemaker until they reach some mythical age at which time you have the freedom to look for and participate in work. If the underlying issue is that the children of single parents get less educational options and a degree of discrimination then solve that problem with truly free education.

    Having said all that welfare payments also need to be at a level that allows for living not existing but single mums should not be better off just because they have kids.m

  11. Terminator @ #155 Tuesday, July 14th, 2020 – 11:21 am

    Thanks KayJay, my battering down of the hatches around here thankfully appears unwarranted at this stage at least.

    The East Coast low is apparently further to the south than originally forecast. I guess that a request for a report to my middle favourite daughter south near Batemans Bay is in order.

    Toodles. 😷 That’s me when I get my face masks.

  14. NSW

    @fictilius tweets

    Bookings capped at 10 people for pubs. Maximum 300 people for larger venues. Dedicated COVID staff will be deployed at each venue. Digital collection of contact details for better legibility

  15. Singapore’s export-focused economy sharply contracted in the second quarter according to early estimates released by the trade ministry, sending the city state into a technical recession and putting it on track for its worst economic showing since independence.

    As one of the first Asian economies to publish quarterly data, Singapore is often seen as a bellwether for the region. lts GDP for the second quarter shrank by 41.2 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised basis, after a 3.3 per cent drop in the first quarter from the preceding three months.

    Releasing the figures just days after the ruling party secured re-election, the Trade and Industry Ministry said the steep decline was due to the partial lockdown imposed from April 7 to June 1 after the number of coronavirus cases in the city state spiked, coupled with the “weak external demand” amid the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3093040/singapores-economy-shrinks-over-40-cent-q2-track-recession

  16. Shellbell, Gladys has just said she has taken health advice from the AHA about how many people can be packed in a pub and still be safe.

    She doesn’t even see that as problem.

  17. Victoria going for eventual elimination if possible. But NSW?

    Berejiklian:

    I want to make this point very clear -that during a pandemic, when you’re easing restrictions as we have been doing, you’re going to get extra cases and we have to live with that.

    There is no way that New South Wales will have zero cases during a pandemic. It’s not going to happen and we shouldn’t expect that we will always going to have cases when we’ve eased restrictions and we have to expect that.

  18. Silly old Firefox was was just saying the Greens are the best arbiters of best practice safe distancing. Who to believe. The experts or those with a political barrow to push?

  19. guytaursays: Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 11:33 am

    @kyegriffin1 tweets

    Tucker Carlson announced tonight that he’s taking a ‘pre-planned vacation’

    *******************************************************

    MSNBC anchor goes after Fox News for Tucker Carlson ‘dabbling’ in white supremacy

    “Tucker Carlson wants you to believe the concern about white supremacy in America is a hoax, which is very convenient for a guy who’s show has been dabbling in it for years,” Hayes noted. “The truth is that white supremacy is alive and well in this country, on TV and certain corners of the internet where racists get together and post this stuff.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/msnbc-anchor-goes-after-fox-news-for-tucker-carlson-dabbling-in-white-supremacy/

  20. C

    To give you an idea. The US has shifted left. Trump has ripped the mask off the right wing agenda with a vengeance. He did what voters put him in office for. He destroyed the established political order.

    The result is that now 30% of Democrats openly declare they are socialists going on primary results.
    This puts the US back to the late 60’s in political terms and things have only just started.
    The Democrats have now got Texas as a battleground state and Florida has a Biden six point lead. Never mind the swing states Trump won for election.

    Meanwhile Trump has repeated the Kansas mistake of attacking teachers pay. This saw the Democrats win big in Kansas. So you can be sure Trump’s numbers are going to get worse and thats before we get more figures of deaths from the virus.

    The get rid of Trump vote to get actual medical science back on the agenda is huge. The right wing Lincoln Project trying to save the furniture is doing some great advertising with right wing framing but be in no doubt they will not save themselves from the base Biden has to care about. Black woman voters.

  21. I fear that the entire east coast is about to become covid central and hope that measures to lock it down are not left until too late.

    Infection control is only as good as the weakest link in the chain. We have seen numerous reports of people trying to flout border restrictions, a total disregard for health orders related to gatherings. If decisive action isn’t taken now it will just escalate.

    Another decision that needs to be made now is are we still just going to go for suppression or set our sights at elimination. Is the message that we expect outbreaks because we aren’t trying foe elimination creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

  22. Early this morning there was an entry about dodgy dealings with Huawei and I presume the Liberals. Has there been an update?

  24. South Australia will no longer lift its border restrictions with New South Wales on July 20, citing concerns about an outbreak linked to a Sydney pub which is now responsible for 21 cases of coronavirus.

    Residents will still be able to enter the state, but will need to spend 14 days in hotel quarantine. Victorians are not able to enter SA at all.

  25. Assantdj

    Well NSW have taken the view of managing outbreaks, and hoping people do the right thing and not go to work and isolate for 14 days together with all their close contacts.

    Good luck with that I say.

    Cos as happened here. Even if quarantine at hotels was breached. People who then have the virus need to do the right thing and isolate together with any close contacts.
    The manner in which the spread has occurred here in Melbourne, would suggest people did not behave as required.

  28. ‘I told you this would happen’: CNN’s Cuomo tears into Trump for trying to ruin Dr Fauci

    On Monday, CNN’s Chris Cuomo slammed President Donald Trump for his latest attacks on Dr. Anthony Fauci.

    “Fauci is not to blame for any of this. Trump is, period,” said Cuomo. “And now that the reality is sinking in to blue and red, to left, right, and reasonable, Trump is doing what he always does: trying to shift blame to someone else. And we must reject efforts to shift stink onto the one man we can trust.”

    “Now, in these White House attacks, we see their principles on display as well, don’t we?” said Cuomo. “Eat your own, lie about Fauci, deny your role, and defy the mandate of leadership that we gave you. And how about using an unnamed official to smear the only credible voice they have on this voice. Where are the worries about anonymous sources now, Mr. President? This is making America great again? You pardon a convicted liar and lie about a man with a conviction to fight a pandemic, which you apparently lack.”

    “I told you this would happen,” said Cuomo. “I told you as soon as people started saying things that reinforce the facts, and when those facts hurt this president’s performance, they would be silenced. That’s exactly what is happening.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/i-told-you-this-would-happen-cnns-cuomo-tears-into-trump-for-trying-to-ruin-dr-fauci/

  29. geezes:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-14/nsw-coronavirus-concerns-grow-amid-big-queue-at-picton-clinic/12452112

    A massive traffic jam blocked roads around a pop-up coronavirus testing clinic in Picton, as concerns deepen about a growing cluster of new cases in Sydney’s south-west.

    By 10.00am, the snarl stretched at least 1.4km as people responded to pleas to get tested and isolate if they had visited several infected businesses in the area.

  30. Should we be at all surprised.

    DropletMichael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    3h
    Rort of the Day. When yer parents don’t know you’ve made em directors of a company getting millions in government contracts. Surprise!
    #QED #FederalICAC #auspol
    Stuart Robert listed parents as company directors without their knowledge
    Stuart Robert listed his parents as directors of an IT company awarded millions in government contracts including from his department. His father Alan said he was unaware he was a director of the…
    michaelwest.com.au

  31. Unless there is a cure for the virus or it weakens under it’s own evolution, then the notion of elimination is fanciful.

    The virus is out there in the community lurking. What is clearly increasing the number of case of Covid is the increased number of interactions between people.

    We can go in to lockdowns and get the infection rate down in the short term. This will help us manage the problem. and not overwhelm medical facilities and manpower. However, as soon as you open up again, the infection rate will rise.

    Also, the virus has spread all over the world. One day we will be bringing in people from overseas at which time the infection rate will rise again.

  32. Whatever is allowed in NSW, I won’t be going to a club, pub, cinema, restaurant food court or theatre for the foreseeable future, nor will I use public transport unless there is absolutely no choice. Also not sporting events, church or rock concerts, but then I don’t attend those when there’s no Virus.

  34. Singapore Slumps Into Recession With Record 41.2% GDP Plunge

    Singapore’s economy plunged into recession last quarter as an extended lockdown shuttered businesses and decimated retail spending.

    Gross domestic product declined an annualized 41.2% from the previous three months, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Tuesday, the biggest quarterly contraction on record and worse than the Bloomberg survey median of a 35.9% drop. Compared with a year earlier, GDP fell 12.6% in the second quarter, versus a survey median of -10.5%.

    Ministry of Trade and Industry

    The deep slump shows the blow Singapore’s economy is taking from all sides amid the pandemic. A plunge in global trade has hit the export-reliant manufacturing industry, while retailers have seen a record decline in sales after partial lockdown measures were imposed for several weeks last quarter. The government, which has projected a full-year economic contraction of 4%-7%, didn’t provide a new forecast Tuesday.

    The dismal outlook is pressuring the ruling People’s Action Party, which had its weakest performance ever in last week’s election. The government has already pledged about S$93 billion ($67 billion) in stimulus to shore up troubled businesses and households and to prevent a surge in retrenchments.

    “The road to recovery in the months ahead will be challenging,” Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing said in a Facebook post.

    More –
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-14/singapore-slumps-into-recession-with-41-2-fall-in-quarterly-gdp?srnd=premium-asia

  36. Well, well so all those clamouring to “open the borders” – mainly those who put the well-being of business ahead of people, have questions to answer!

  37. GG

    The only positive to come out of this latest wave, is that at the very least Victorians finally understand that this virus is not being exaggerated

  38. This relates to the national inquiry

    Georgia Wilkins
    @georgiamareew
    ·
    11m
    Conflict of Interest: Crown is part of Australia’s hotel quarantine story, so why is one of its board members running the hotel quarantine inquiry?
    The Crown board member running Australia’s hotel quarantine inquiry
    Is Crown board member Jane Halton the best person to be heading the national inquiry into Australia’s hotel quarantine failures?
    crikey.com.au

  41. GG

    There is a possibility that the virus decides to die out on its own steam, but who knows if and when, so we had better get used to a covid normal.

  42. U.S. Denounces China’s Claims to South China Sea as Unlawful

    The Trump administration rejected China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, reversing a previous policy of not taking sides in such disputes and escalating tensions with Beijing on yet another front.

    The move aligns the U.S. with a 2016 ruling by a United Nations tribunal that found China’s claims to waters also contested by the Philippines were unlawful. It’s meant to push back against what the U.S. sees as an intensifying Chinese campaign to dominate the resource-rich South China Sea and smaller nations in the region.

    “We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a statement Monday.

    In the past, the U.S. largely limited itself to calling for ensuring “freedom of navigation” in the contested waterway, which is critical for global trade routes, while stopping short of taking a position on specific claims. China has proceeded nonetheless, engaging in a years-long campaign to build bases and other outposts on shoals, reefs and rock outcroppings as a way of deepening its claims.

    While the immediate impact of the U.S. decision isn’t clear, it adds to conflicts over issues from trade to cybersecurity and President Donald Trump’s efforts to blame China for the coronavirus pandemic that began there. Last week, the U.S. slapped sanctions on a top Chinese official over human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region, and China responded by imposing sanctions on Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

    More
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-13/u-s-denounces-china-s-claims-to-south-china-sea-as-unlawful?srnd=premium-asia

  43. VIc,

    My daughter has returned from Queensland in the last few days.

    The general attitude she and her partner observed was that it’s all fake and some sort of Government conspiracy.

    Sad, but they will also learn the hard way.

  44. Insanity

    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    18m
    ⚠️#Florida recorded 15,299 new #coronavirus cases on Sunday, the *biggest ever* single-day increase in the entire WORLD during the #CoronavirusPandemic.

    @GovRonDeSantis
    insists on reopening schools in the world’s hottest #COVID19 zone.

  45. GG – Sewage testing confirmed that the ACT had effectively eliminated the Virus.
    In Wuhan, they batch tested everyone to confirm zero cases.

    We can eliminate this thing.
    It’s the cheapest long term solution – Everyone hide under the Doona!!!

  46. Victoria
    Maybe Morrison could interrupt his working holiday long enough to do something about a pandemic payment for people who are working whilst sick because they have no options.
    The abc had a story this morning on this issue in aged care and they tried to get a scheme through fair work. It was unsuccessful because of insufficient outbreaks. So to get money to stop spreading the virus you have to have spread, in an industry where spread equals death.

  49. The Palaszczuk Government is increasing the penalties for those who lie in their border declarations. Six months in the slammer should serve as a good general deterrence.

  50. GG

    Goodness me. At the very least my immediate family have taken it very seriously from the get go.

    But I am not surprised by the attitude of your daughter. I have been hearing this from many people over the past few months.
    And therein lies the main problem. Human behaviour is not helping us manage this.

    Hence my frustration with the blame game.
    Due to business and govts wanting the economy to go back to normal, mixed messaging has been doing the rounds.

    The pandemic doesn’t care that we want it to go away and get on with our lives as normal.

    Things are currently as they are, and not what we want them to be.

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