Essential Research: gender equality and Australian history

Not the Eden-Monaro by-election news: an Essential Research poll, electoral reform in South Australia and election day roll management potentially to go digital.

Three entirely unrelated bits of information that don’t involve the Eden-Monaro by-election, for which another dedicated post is assuredly not far away (the most recent, and its attendant discussion thread, is here):

• This week’s Essential Research poll looks at indigenous issues and gender equality, finding broadly liberal viewpoints prevailing in each case. On the former count, most agreed that indigenous Australians and Pacific islanders had been “forced to work in Australia in conditions that amounted to slavery”, but 42% agreed that “many of the new cases of Covid-19 in Victoria have been from people who attended the Black Lives Matter protest” compared with 37% who believed it to be false. On gender equality, majorities somehow managed to agree both that there was “still a long way to go” and that it had “already been mostly achieved”, though a lot more emphatically in the former case. Respondents were also asked who got paid too much (bankers and lawyers) and too little (nurses and teachers).

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports on an imminent package of electoral reform in South Australia, which may include the introduction of optional preferential voting. Labor leader Peter Malinauskas has accused Premier Steven Marshall of a move to “rig the next election”, and invoked the bogey of “the polarisation of our democracy in the way we have seen in the United States”. Malinauskas’s real concern is more likely to do with Greens preferences, the system having raised no such concerns for the Labor governments that introduced them in New South Wales and Queensland, back when its main impact was to weaken intra-Coalition preference flows in three-cornerned contests. The Greens have also declared their opposition, which would leave its upper house fate in the hands of the three survivors of the Nick Xenophon disturbance. The government’s reforms may also include crackdowns on corflutes (which seem to be particularly popular in South Australia) and dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths.

Justin Hendry of IT News reports the Australian Electoral Commission is looking into a full rollout of the electronic certified list system for marking off voters, which operated at around 10% of polling places at last year’s election. This replaces the more familiar method of paper lists marked off by pencil, which offer no guarantee the prospective voter has not already voted somewhere else beyond the requisite verbal assurance. As such, it can genuinely help prevent multiple voting, unlike a lot of other supposed electoral reforms that are invoked in its name. However, it may also constitute a point of vulnerability to nefarious actors.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,724 comments on “Essential Research: gender equality and Australian history”

  1. Steve777

    [While out and about I’ve also noticed how things have relaxed. It’s been nice to be back to something like the old normal for a few weeks, but there’s a good chance there’ll be more outbreaks.]

    There has not been an outbreak in NSW for some time even in periods of full schooling and greater activity.

    Seems it needs some mismanagement to get it going.

  2. People think this an attack on public housing, complete bullshit, only the media and certain politicians who know. Well they haven’t been in Public Housing for decades.

  3. Socrates @ #3649 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 9:57 pm

    “testing of medium density Public Housing has begun.”

    Correct answer. All the best performing jurisdictions in terms of responding to Covid19 have focused on testing and tracing. The testing should not stop even when you get to zero, because any external idiot or returning local can reintroduce the disease.

    Also because there could possibly be family links across various public housing sites, especially as it pertains to recently arrived refugees and migrants.

  4. The IPA got a message for Andrews.

    Dan Ilic
    Lotion bottle
    Open hands
    @danilic
    The institute of pubic affairs has a message for Dan Andrews. #covid19 #auspol #vicpol

  5. shellbell @ #3651 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 10:02 pm

    Steve777

    [While out and about I’ve also noticed how things have relaxed. It’s been nice to be back to something like the old normal for a few weeks, but there’s a good chance there’ll be more outbreaks.]

    There has not been an outbreak in NSW for some time even in periods of full schooling and greater activity.

    Seems it needs some mismanagement to get it going.

    One Super Spreader plus some mismanagement got it going in Melbourne.

  6. Fuck I cant believe the shit that dribbles from your mouth nath. You are a completely ignorant clown. Has robodebt affected your avocados? Yeah, it never happened. Fuck you.

  7. And to think, Horsey once told me that I’d be wise to live each day as if it was my last, as she herself did.

    I should throw caution to the wind and demonstrate my solidarity with our less advantaged brothers and sisters by going out of my way to embrace them and, if necessary, suffer infection from The Virus to show how committed I was to their cause.

    Imagine my surprise to see the shit sheet she has presented above: complaints about police brutality, demands for a public housing new deal, better food, better cleaning services, drug withdrawal infrastructure, declarations here, apologies there…

    Where’s the Spirit Of Horsey in these people? Don’t they realise they should live each day as if it is their last? What a coronavirus outbreak got compared to a Schecule Of Demands? Whingers!

    Doesn’t this damned virus not realise that its writ will not run so long as Human Rights are threatened? And that if Dan Andrew’s doesn’t bloody-well DO something, it can go somewhere else to wreak its havoc, and only come back to make everyone sick when the Manifesto has been met?

  8. shellbell

    “Seems it needs some mismanagement to get it going.”
    I’m sure there is mismanagement going on in every state but Victoria got unlucky as well as mismanaging it.

  9. The ‘super-spreading’ , IMO, is probably the main enemy.
    If it was mandated that everyone wear masks outside their homes , then , along with all the other preventative measures, it would surely reduce spreading the virus?
    Why not go to extremes to get on top of this?
    I cannot understand the resistance.
    Can understand that Cud Chewer may have become very frustrated about this issue… much too little, too late.

  10. @Nath

    Under Labor the debts were calculated using income averaging.

    Then the calculated debt was sent to a human to oversee and investigate.

    That is why there were not many notices issued under this method, as the human intervention determined through research that there was not actually a debt.

    Now what your lot (the coalition government) did was remove the human aspect and used the computer based averaging to send a debt notice, hence robodebt, out to every single person that was identified as owing money and then demanding that that individual prove they didn’t owe money.

    I am surprised that you can’t work this out or you know, and are just being obtuse.

    I ask you two questions.

    Did Labor send out a computer calculated debt that was not investigated by a human first?

    Did Labor demand that the recipient of the debt notice prove that they did not owe any money?

    It wasn’t the income averaging that was the issue, it was the sending out of unproven Robodebt notices to innocent people, a process so heartily started by the coalition.

  11. Been There
    says:
    Did Labor send out a computer calculated debt that was not investigated by a human first?
    Did Labor demand that the recipient of the debt notice prove that they did not owe any money?
    It wasn’t the income averaging that was the issue, it was the sending out of unproven Robodebt notices to innocent people, a process so heartily started by the coalition.
    ________________
    Roberts says:

    Robert also said that governments have calculated debts “partially or solely” based on income averaging for 20 to 30 years and done so “on some mass” since 2007, including an estimated 16.6% of debts in 2009 and 24.4% in 2011.

    So if true these debts (16.6%) in 2009 and (24.4%) in 2011 were not fine tuned by a human but just sent out to people. I’m fairly certain that under the Coalition things got worse, but there was no doubt a fair bit of unfair debt assessments going on under the ALP as well.

  12. I think that Ms McBain’s ALP membership history is a matter both profoundly uninteresting and unimportant – to myself, to the electors of Eden Monaro and to pretty much everyone else in the world.

  13. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, July 7, 2020 at 10:13 pm
    AND WHY ISN’T THE CPG MAKING ENQUIRIES?
    __________________
    Back to the “issues” with the media I see! Sad!

  14. Quasar
    “The ‘super-spreading’ , IMO, is probably the main enemy.”
    Some scientists are saying 10% of people with covid are responsible for 80% of infections (a bit like the Pareto Rule). Victoria probably had a couple and didn’t shut down quickly enough.

  15. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, July 7, 2020 at 10:17 pm
    I think that Ms McBain’s ALP membership history is a matter both profoundly uninteresting and unimportant – to myself, to the electors of Eden Monaro and to pretty much everyone else in the world.
    _________________________
    Steve I thought you had to be a member of the party of 12 months standing to be a candidate? This must be the first time since Cheryl Kernot this happened – and we know how that ended!

  16. BB

    Your misrepresentation and historical revisionism is a delight to behold.

    Why don’t you take your own advice and stop making a fool of yourself.

  17. nath @ #3645 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, July 7, 2020 at 9:31 pm
    nath @ #3516 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 7:01 pm
    Thanks Pegasus. I suspected that Shorten had a hand in robodebt. That seems to be the case now.
    And if you or Pegasus were capable of being honest, instead of taking your cues from Stuart Robert, you would have referenced Bill Shorten’s explanation that every case of welfare overpayment under his watch and that of the federal Labor government was handed to a human case officer for review before any debt notice was sent out.
    _________________________________________
    What Roberts said was:

    that governments have calculated debts “partially or solely” based on income averaging for 20 to 30 years and done so “on some mass” since 2007, including an estimated 16.6% of debts in 2009 and 24.4% in 2011.

    So if this is true there was no human finetuning of these debts then. I suspect some hypocrisy from Shorten on this because he has shown similar behaviour in the past. Despite handing out 457 visas very freely in government he suddenly became a spokesman against them in opposition. The same thing with Labor Hire companies. Some of his deals as AWU head involved Labor Hire companies. Indeed, one Labor Hire company donated 40k to his campaign. Which Shorten did not acknowledge for over 7 years. Then suddenly he rails against Labor Hire companies.

    And this is absolute crap from you. I didn’t want to have to explain Robert’s carefully chosen words and figures to you but it seems, for the sake of a better understanding and so no misunderstanding and misconceptions can occur, I must.

    Firstly, Stuart Robert states:

    that governments have calculated debts “partially or solely” based on income averaging for 20 to 30 years

    That would take the Social Security Department back to 1990. You know what they didn’t have then? Data Matching between the ATO and the Department of Social Security. Neither did they have an Algorithm that automatically averaged a person’s income who had received welfare and automatically generated a debt notice based upon ATO information. As the Coalition crafted their system to do after they came to power in 2013, when Morrison was Minister for Human Services.

    I know for a fact exactly what the system of Debt Recovery in Social Security was in the 1990s because my late husband worked in…the Recovery section of the Department of Social Security. That is why I know that, ’20 to 30 years ago’, Social Security debt recovery focused on multiple claims by welfare recipients and people who had taken work but continued to claim welfare. It was a painstaking and laborious process, performed by humans only, to bring all the strands together so that a successful recovery could be effected. It pretty much stayed that way until Labor started updating the systems in Social Security when they came to power in 2007.

    However, the fact remained that, until they lost office in 2013, most debt recovery was done by humans assessing cases and compiling briefs of evidence. Computers had advanced enough to enable a request from SS to the ATO about a client to be lodged and a reply received, but it wasn’t automated, nor was it automatically done for everyone on a welfare payment. That was a peculiarly Coalition invention.

    Also, Mr Robert says,
    and done so on some mass since 2007, including an estimated 16.6% of debts in 2009 and 24.4% in 2011.

    Hmm, I wonder what it was in the years he doesn’t give figures for? Nevertheless those figures for income averaging on debts, under Labor, may just indicate increased co-operation that was beginning to become possible with advancements in computing, but are in no way as large as comparble numbers under the Coalition.

    All the other bullshit you’ve thrown up is just your tired old recitation of your usual script and not worth bothering about.

    Honestly, nath, you’d think after the number of times you’ve been pinged for eliding the truth, or flat out lying, that you’d stop. However, I’ve come to the conclusion that you are a shameless miscreant with an unnatural fixation on Bill Shorten and you are incapable of rational action. I feel for you, I really do.

  18. Stephanie Dalzell
    @steph_dalzell
    Government Services Minister Stuart Robert tells the @PressClubAust
    that income averaging to raise debts was not helpful, respectful or transparent, in response to questions from @SabraLane
    #NPC #auspol

    Some of the Ministers should focus on Stuart Robert, if they want to help those in public housing….

  19. So if true these debts (16.6%) in 2009 and 24.4%) were not fine tuned by a human but just sent out to people. I’m fairly certain that under the Coalition things got worse, but there was no doubt a fair bit of unfair debt assessments going on under the ALP as well.

    Mate, you are just an ignorant, arrogant prick. You have no idea of the reality.

  20. Lars Von Trier @ #3669 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 10:19 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, July 7, 2020 at 10:17 pm
    I think that Ms McBain’s ALP membership history is a matter both profoundly uninteresting and unimportant – to myself, to the electors of Eden Monaro and to pretty much everyone else in the world.
    _________________________
    Steve I thought you had to be a member of the party of 12 months standing to be a candidate? This must be the first time since Cheryl Kernot this happened – and we know how that ended!

    Shows how little you know about the process of choosing candidates. Or the rules that govern the process.

  21. Shouldn’t you be at the coal face, doleing out the chicken soup, Horsey?

    After all, one should live every day as if it was their last.

    And you have your convictions to immunize you against harm.

  22. bill
    says:
    Mate, you are just an ignorant, arrogant prick. You have no idea of the reality.
    ___________________________
    Of course in your mind there were no unfair centrelink debt assessments made under a Labor government. Of course Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia too.

  23. Diogenes:

    Quasar
    “The ‘super-spreading’ , IMO, is probably the main enemy.”
    Some scientists are saying 10% of people with covid are responsible for 80% of infections (a bit like the Pareto Rule). Victoria probably had a couple and didn’t shut down quickly enough.

    So is a “super spreader” some who both:
    – for some reason carries around a shed load of virus, shedding that shed load left right and centre, and
    – doesn’t get sick from the shed load carried (for unknown reasons) hence is able to keep shedding ….

  24. nath @ #3681 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 10:34 pm

    bill
    says:
    Mate, you are just an ignorant, arrogant prick. You have no idea of the reality.
    ___________________________
    Of course in your mind there were no unfair centrelink debt assessments made under a Labor government. Of course Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia too.

    Another broad generalisation based upon a kernel of truth (no system, or government who presides over it, is perfect, so yeah, there probably were some unfair debt assessments which were usually cleared up when the individual came in to Centrelink and spoke with a human).

    Up your game, nath. It’s getting too easy to pick holes in your glib one-liners.

  25. @ Nath

    No one is arguing how the debt was calculated.

    It’s what happened after the debt was calculated that is the difference between Labor and the coalition.

    I note you didn’t answer my questions, just flicked me to Roberts prepared misinformation from the press club, which does not answer either question.

    I can see why people here get frustrated and start name calling, particularly when someone absolutely refuses to see reason.

    Sigh I give up!

  26. E. G. Theodore @ #3682 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 10:35 pm

    Diogenes:

    Quasar
    “The ‘super-spreading’ , IMO, is probably the main enemy.”
    Some scientists are saying 10% of people with covid are responsible for 80% of infections (a bit like the Pareto Rule). Victoria probably had a couple and didn’t shut down quickly enough.

    So is a “super spreader” some who both:
    – for some reason carries around a shed load of virus, shedding that shed load left right and centre, and
    – doesn’t get sick from the shed load carried (for unknown reasons) …

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/what-are-super-spreaders-and-how-are-they-transmitting-coronavirus

  27. June 2020, Greens Rachel Siewert put forward a motion re Robodebt. Labor voted with the Coalition to vote it down. If Labor did nothing ‘wrong’ during its reign why not vote for it, regardless of any subsequent action or lack thereof?
    ———-

    A Royal Commission will ensure we know the full truth of what happened with robodebt including before 2015

    https://rachel-siewert.greensmps.org.au/articles/royal-commission-will-ensure-we-know-full-truth-what-happened-robodebt-including-2015%C2%A0

  28. don’t be a smaller penis than you have to. You know I’m right so you would vote for Michealia Cash before Penny Wong. Dropkick.

  29. The Greens do stunts in the Senate. Labor knows this. Labor doesn’t bother voting for The Greens’ stunts that have no hope of succeeding when they go down to the House of Representatives.

  30. @C@tmomma

    Thank you for your detailed rebutting of Naths feeble defence regarding Robodebt.

    You presented a detailed case that leaves no wriggle room.

    Keep up the good work!

    What say you Nath?

  31. The figures for 2007 and 2011: (16.6%) (24.4%) were the percentage of debts that were automated and not finetuned. At least that is what Roberts is saying. Roberts adds that these figures were the only ones available for the time of the previous ALP government. Therefore he says:

    “Asked why the government isn’t refunding these debts, Robert replied that the sample tests it has run in those two years are “the only data sets we have in terms of where we sit”.

    So clearly the previous ALP government were using an automated (non human involved) system to calculate and demand debt repayments.

  32. Labor didn’t calculate any debts based on income averaging. Income averaging was the initial indication, but after that each case was further assessed by a professional officer who looked into the matter thoroughly. Most cases were dismissed.

    The Liberals, on the other hand, took the initial indication and not only used it immediately as the entire case, butv reversed the onus of proof, as well as threatening the client with debt collectors and criminal prosecution by the AFP.

    The gap between Labor’s process and that of the Liberals’ was wider than the Grand Canyon.

  33. Everybody knows Nath and Lars are both Liberal trolls and always will be. You could get more sense out of talking to a wall.

  34. Fuck off nath, you are really starting to piss me off. You have no idea. Maybe this is your thing pissing on the underlings but I am not amused.

  35. The Guardian has reported on the extent of income averaging without ‘human fine tuning’ before 2015:

    The Australian government has privately acknowledged the robodebt scandal may go beyond the unlawful 470,000 debts already identified for refunds, but it has no plans to pay back the money because it believes it would be too difficult to identify victims.
    Amid growing fears unlawful debts could date back decades, the Guardian can reveal ministers were told in February the now unlawful ATO income averaging method was a longstanding “last resort” practice used to enforce Centrelink overpayment debts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/31/robodebt-scandal-leak-reveals-unlawful-debts-predate-2015-but-government-has-no-plans-to-pay-back-money

  36. nath @ #3692 Tuesday, July 7th, 2020 – 10:47 pm

    The figures for 2007 and 2011: (16.6%) (24.4%) were the percentage of debts that were automated and not finetuned. At least that is what Roberts is saying. Roberts adds that these figures were the only ones available for the time of the previous ALP government. Therefore he says:

    “Asked why the government isn’t refunding these debts, Robert replied that the sample tests it has run in those two years are “the only data sets we have in terms of where we sit”.

    So clearly the previous ALP government were using an automated (non human involved) system to calculate and demand debt repayments.

    To the extent that your last sentence contains an element of truth which I can’t clarify one way or the other, I’ll let it stand but say that if you analysed that data you would probably find that the bulk of those debt recoveries under Labor (still only 16.6% of the total in 2011), were likely to have come from overpayments when a client began work, died, or was sent to jail. All perfectly reasonable.

    As I stated previously, computers enabled greater efficiencies by then. And every decision was able to be directly challenged by the client by simply going in to Centrelink if they thought it was wrong. Or by launching an appeal through the AAT.

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