Essential Research: robodebt, protests and coronavirus latest

The weekly Essential poll finds considerable displeasure at the government’s handling of the robodebt affair, even as Newspoll finds the electoral damage to be limited at best.

Together with the usual suite of questions on coronavirus, the latest weekly Essential Research survey offers findings on the government’s robodebt the recent disturbances in the United States. The former make grim reading for the government, or might do if Newspoll hadn’t suggested the debacle had made no difference on voting intention: 74% say the government should apologise to those negatively impacted, with only 11% disagreeing; 66% support interest and damages for those who wrongly repaid money, with 13% disagreeing; 55% supported a royal commission, with 23% disagreeing; and only 32% agreed the automated notifications were a good idea “even if it was poorly implemented”, with 43% disagreeing.

Regarding the protests in the United States, the propositions that “protesters are right to demand better protection and treatment of African Americans in society” and that “the protesters want to loot and cause property damage, more than they want social change” both received majority support, though far more emphatically in the former case, with 80% agreeing and 11% disagreeing, compared with 54% and 33% for the latter. There were likewise large majorities in favour of the notions that “authorities in America have been unwilling to deal with institutional racism” (78% to 10%) and that the death of George Floyd pointed to “wider discrimination against minority cultures in society” (72% to 16%), while only 33% considered Floyd’s death isolated and not illustrative of institutional police racism, compared with 54% who disagreed.

As for coronavirus, the number who are “very concerned” maintains a steady decline, down five to 27%, with quite concerned down one to 48%, not that concerned up six to 21% and not at all concerned up one to 5%. Approval of the government’s handling of the matter is little changed, with 70% rating it good (up two) and 12% poor (steady). Small-sample state breakdowns provide a further increment of support for the notion that the Western Australian government has done best out of the crisis, with the good rating at 84% and poor at 6%, with other states ranging from 67% to 79% on good and 8% to 13% on poor. Queensland respondents were most likely to say their government was moving too slowly in easing restrictions, although even here the result was only 23% compared with 63% for “about the right speed”. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1073.

Elsewhere, yesterday’s declaration of candidates and ballot paper draw for the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election revealed a field of 14 candidates. Along with Labor candidate Kristy McBain and Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs, there are starters for the Nationals (Trevor Hicks, who won a preselection vote on Saturday), the Greens, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, the Liberal Democrats, the Christian Democrats, Help End Marijuana Prohibition, the Science Party, Sustainable Australia, something called the Australian Federation Party and three independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,555 comments on “Essential Research: robodebt, protests and coronavirus latest”

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  1. BK @ #97 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:31 am

    Yes it appears Brian Houston was attempting to be too clever by half.
    They really are not decent people.
    ______
    Exhibit 1 – Stuart Robert.

    Agree. They are to Christianity (which I know gets consistently bad reviews here) what McDonald’s food wrappers are to fine dining.

  2. Bucephalus:

    [‘I did 9 years in the Australian Regular Army and 3 Years in the Army Reserve and quite a few on the Inactive List. If you wish to highlight my Reserve Service that’s fine.’]

    My mistake and I apologize for getting your service history wrong. That said, I stand by my contention that the military is unsurprisingly mainly comprised of the ranks of the Right. I mean, there are some who still defend the Vietnam conflict/war based on the discredited “Domino Theory”; and, correct me if I’m wrong, I seem to recall that you were/are one of them.

  3. Enough of my work for the tourism board of Perm, until I can win lotto and take a tram down the Ulitsa Lenina I think I’m done. Back to the day job of being a paid Chinese agent of influence.

  4. In my experience, most former and serving members of the ADF tend to be law and order types, who have a condescending view of civilians, especially progressives, more pronounced in the US & the UK but nevertheless not dissimilar to here.”

    I joined the regular Army at 17 in 1981 and left in 1993. I was in the active and inactive reserves until 2019. A reasonable number of current and ex ADF members are racist, small minded bigots incapable of walking and chewing gum but most are reasonable people.

  5. nath says:
    Thursday, June 11, 2020 at 9:31 am

    “How typical to assume that pacifists despise soldiers.“

    You just have to back through the posts on this blog to see the hate towards the military by many who would call themselves pacifist. Yes, there are pacifists who wish no harm on a fly and love all but they are few and far between.

  6. GoldenSmaug @ #106 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:38 am

    In my experience, most former and serving members of the ADF tend to be law and order types, who have a condescending view of civilians, especially progressives, more pronounced in the US & the UK but nevertheless not dissimilar to here.”

    I joined the regular Army at 17 in 1981 and left in 1993. I was in the active and inactive reserves until 2019. A reasonable number of current and ex ADF members are racist, small minded bigots incapable of walking and chewing gum but most are reasonable people.

    Like police forces they do attract a certain type of person. Like police forces they deserve a certain level of respect when they do their job well and quietly.

    Goose stepping their way down in the Ulitsa Lenina or St George’s Terrace in grand displays of the glory of war are to my mind not one of the things that engenders a level of respect.

  7. Bucephalus @ #107 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    nath says:
    Thursday, June 11, 2020 at 9:31 am

    “How typical to assume that pacifists despise soldiers.“

    You just have to back through the posts on this blog to see the hate towards the military by many who would call themselves pacifist. Yes, there are pacifists who wish no harm on a fly and love all but they are few and far between.

    It’s hard to be a pacifist when the world is so full of backpfeifengesicht.

  8. WeWantPaul @ #108 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    GoldenSmaug @ #106 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:38 am

    In my experience, most former and serving members of the ADF tend to be law and order types, who have a condescending view of civilians, especially progressives, more pronounced in the US & the UK but nevertheless not dissimilar to here.”

    I joined the regular Army at 17 in 1981 and left in 1993. I was in the active and inactive reserves until 2019. A reasonable number of current and ex ADF members are racist, small minded bigots incapable of walking and chewing gum but most are reasonable people.

    Like police forces they do attract a certain type of person. Like police forces they deserve a certain level of respect when they do their job well and quietly.

    Goose stepping their way down in the Ulitsa Lenina or St George’s Terrace in grand displays of the glory of war are to my mind not one of the things that engenders a level of respect.

    Your confusing the soldier with their master!

  9. LOL – but expect a repeat of the BS “subliminal message” trials.

    Right-wing fans mocked for boycotting Rage Against the Machine after realising band’s political stance

    “I use to be a fan until your political opinions come out. Music is my sanctuary and the last thing I want to hear is political b******t when i’m listening to music.

    “As far as i’m concerned you and Pink are completely done. Keep running your mouth and ruining your fan base.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/rage-against-the-machine-right-wing-conservatives-politics-boycott-tom-morello-a9558241.html

  10. … from the Dawn Patrol (Thanks BK)!

    It so brings back memories of APEC when we had the Rodent HoWARd, Dubya Bush II, etc behind the Great Wall of Sydney, and let them out.
    Would have made an interesting Escape from New York sequel.

  11. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #110 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:45 am

    WeWantPaul @ #108 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    GoldenSmaug @ #106 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:38 am

    In my experience, most former and serving members of the ADF tend to be law and order types, who have a condescending view of civilians, especially progressives, more pronounced in the US & the UK but nevertheless not dissimilar to here.”

    I joined the regular Army at 17 in 1981 and left in 1993. I was in the active and inactive reserves until 2019. A reasonable number of current and ex ADF members are racist, small minded bigots incapable of walking and chewing gum but most are reasonable people.

    Like police forces they do attract a certain type of person. Like police forces they deserve a certain level of respect when they do their job well and quietly.

    Goose stepping their way down in the Ulitsa Lenina or St George’s Terrace in grand displays of the glory of war are to my mind not one of the things that engenders a level of respect.

    Your confusing the soldier with their master!

    Except in times of conscription it is a voluntary chosen servitude, so like those that choose to work for Murdoch there isn’t a lot a distance that can be gained in the distinction. But I take your point.

    Although, and somewhat oddly, it seems to be the Vietnam vet kind of age cohort most into the ANZAC day as a sacred and immutable worship of the glory of war.

  12. What else would you expect? 🙁

    Adam Bandt
    (@AdamBandt)
    Astounding.
    Libs are gagging a debate about transparency!
    A Greens bill to set up national integrity commission has passed Senate but gov won’t bring it on in House.
    It’s rort after rort & gov won’t establish a national anti-corruption watchdog.

  13. GoldenSmaug:

    [‘…but most are reasonable people.’]

    I never expressed nor implied anything to the contrary. I just stated what my personal experience was. That is to say, and couched in different terms, I didn’t come across many progressives in the RAN save for one who became my best friend.

  14. Jaeger @ #113 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:45 am

    LOL – but expect a repeat of the BS “subliminal message” trials.

    Right-wing fans mocked for boycotting Rage Against the Machine after realising band’s political stance

    “I use to be a fan until your political opinions come out. Music is my sanctuary and the last thing I want to hear is political b******t when i’m listening to music.

    “As far as i’m concerned you and Pink are completely done. Keep running your mouth and ruining your fan base.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/rage-against-the-machine-right-wing-conservatives-politics-boycott-tom-morello-a9558241.html

    Hilarious!!!!

    Just shows how little they understood or took notice of basically all the lyrics.

    I loved this reply from the band.

    Band member Tom Morello responded: “Scott!! What music of mine were you a fan of that DIDN’T contain “political BS”? I need to know so I can delete it from the catalog”.

  15. It’s not your call, Scotty.

    Scott Morrison is now calling on all the closed states to nominate the date they will re-open in July.

    Because he is getting “frustrated” at the interstate border closures.

    Sooooooooo I guess he is not too worried about that second wave from the protests then.

  16. Morrison says he’s ‘studied history’ and there was no slavery.

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    5m
    Between 1842 and 1904 more than 60,000 men and boys from the South Pacific islands, and an unknown number of women and girls, were kidnaped and brought to Australia to work as slaves on the sugar plantations that still dot the country’s northeast coast.” latimes #auspol

  17. I doubt that Morrison understands the problems of wives controlled by their husbands until it is a form of abuse, either.

  18. WeWantPaul @ #115 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:49 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #110 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:45 am

    WeWantPaul @ #108 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    GoldenSmaug @ #106 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:38 am

    In my experience, most former and serving members of the ADF tend to be law and order types, who have a condescending view of civilians, especially progressives, more pronounced in the US & the UK but nevertheless not dissimilar to here.”

    I joined the regular Army at 17 in 1981 and left in 1993. I was in the active and inactive reserves until 2019. A reasonable number of current and ex ADF members are racist, small minded bigots incapable of walking and chewing gum but most are reasonable people.

    Like police forces they do attract a certain type of person. Like police forces they deserve a certain level of respect when they do their job well and quietly.

    Goose stepping their way down in the Ulitsa Lenina or St George’s Terrace in grand displays of the glory of war are to my mind not one of the things that engenders a level of respect.

    Your confusing the soldier with their master!

    Except in times of conscription it is a voluntary chosen servitude, so like those that choose to work for Murdoch there isn’t a lot a distance that can be gained in the distinction. But I take your point.

    Although, and somewhat oddly, it seems to be the Vietnam vet kind of age cohort most into the ANZAC day as a sacred and immutable worship of the glory of war.

    That’s like saying that soldiering becomes either acceptable or unacceptable every time a Government changes depending on their policies towards using the military.

  19. lizzie @ #120 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:55 am

    Morrison says he’s ‘studied history’ and there was no slavery.

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    5m
    Between 1842 and 1904 more than 60,000 men and boys from the South Pacific islands, and an unknown number of women and girls, were kidnaped and brought to Australia to work as slaves on the sugar plantations that still dot the country’s northeast coast.” latimes #auspol

    That isn’t slavery that is just the fully implemented LNP employment policy, which no doubt will be called WorkChoicesPlus. Gina and Andrew can’t wait.

  20. In a way I find it reassuring that Buce hasn’t really got anything substantial to say in support of his right wing bs. It is not clear what he actually believes in apart from his own personal and political superiority to most of the rest of the human family.

    I used to do a lot of commenting 10 years or so and there were lots of Buces around who would come to leftist blogs and mount arguments as to why the conservative/libertarian ideology was rational and was backed by evidence. The wrongness and ignorance of their assumptions about the way the world works compared to my own experience convinced me they had nothing to offer ordinary people and nothing that would build decent societies. And the evidence that they were wrong about the nature of human nature and the idea that the market is like an invisible hand, continues to mount.

    They got nothing rational, but it doesn’t matter to them; they think they can rely on cheap and nasty divisive smears to keep those voters who have been voting for them against their own self-interest.

    There is a lot of work done on the psychology of right wing people. I found “The Reactionary Mind” by Corey Robin had some useful analysis of the way these people develop their belief systems.

    “The Reactionary Mind: Conservatism from Edmund Burke to Sarah Palin” is a 2011 book written by political theorist Corey Robin. It argues that conservatism from the 17th century to today is based on the principle “that some are fit, and thus ought, to rule others”. from Wiki.

    I’d really like Buce to set out an argument that justifies or explains his belief in his superiority and his ability to see ‘the truth’.

  21. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #122 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    WeWantPaul @ #115 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 7:49 am

    ……

    Your confusing the soldier with their master!

    Except in times of conscription it is a voluntary chosen servitude, so like those that choose to work for Murdoch there isn’t a lot a distance that can be gained in the distinction. But I take your point.

    Although, and somewhat oddly, it seems to be the Vietnam vet kind of age cohort most into the ANZAC day as a sacred and immutable worship of the glory of war.

    That’s like saying that soldiering becomes either acceptable or unacceptable every time a Government changes depending on their policies towards using the military.

    Not really there is always a core of the military that is needed and appropriate. And even in the heat of battle there is always a few Rupert Brooks and not nearly enough Wilfred Owens. Just seems right now all we have are Rupert Brooks.

  22. lizzie

    Morrison says he’s ‘studied history’ and there was no slavery.

    Scrott is a flimflam ad man so of course we did not have “slavery” , no sireee. We gave it a different name and voila, no ‘slavery’ .

  23. ABC radio interviewed some Islanders in Australia ” working ” as seasonal fruit pickers.
    9 of them in a 4 bedroom house with 1 bathroom. Each was charged by their labour hire company $150/week rent. Was also a $37 bond fee deducted. Wages the previous week were $56 after all deductions.
    LNP utopia

  24. It will be interesting to see how the ratings for the AFL telecast tonight go. I predict the viewers will fall away significantly as the game progresses.

  25. lizzie

    I doubt that Morrison understands the problems of wives controlled by their husbands until it is a form of abuse, either.

    For his church husband=boss is how Dog wants it to be. Anything else is norty.
    .
    ………………… Australia’s evangelical Christian community, and throughout her marriage she heard many sermons on honouring a husband’s authority.

    These sermons focused on a wife submitting to her husband’s authority in everything, from finances to where and when she worked. He was to be respected as head of the family, because this was “God’s plan”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-09/this-is-how-evangelical-churches-can-breed-domestic-violence/11778864

  26. Confessions says:
    Thursday, June 11, 2020 at 7:22 am
    I’ve said all along that the next election is not a foregone conclusion. It’s silly to write it off at this point in the election cycle – anything can happen over the next couple of years.

    The next election is likely to be held in October next year. The alternative would be March 2022. Election-related jostling will commence In February….so not far off. There’s a few months left of phoney games.

    The LNP are already running their election strategy….They’ve announced that Yes, there’s a recession and they’re the ones best qualified to manage it.

  27. poroti @ #132 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    lizzie

    I doubt that Morrison understands the problems of wives controlled by their husbands until it is a form of abuse, either.

    Problems, for his church husband=boss is how Dog wants it to be. Anything else is norty.
    .
    ………………… Australia’s evangelical Christian community, and throughout her marriage she heard many sermons on honouring a husband’s authority.

    These sermons focused on a wife submitting to her husband’s authority in everything, from finances to where and when she worked. He was to be respected as head of the family, because this was “God’s plan”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-09/this-is-how-evangelical-churches-can-breed-domestic-violence/11778864

    A problem for the woman in this situation is how do they speak out about it, when to do so would be considered going against doG’s will.

  28. The calls to diversify Australian exports betray a complete failure to understand Australian economic history. Australian export sectors exist primarily because of the characteristics of importing and financing economies rather than because of anything done in Australia.

    For example, the iron ore industry exists because Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China industrialised. It does not exist because Australians decided to create it. It’s always been financed in the UK or New York. Likewise the gas sector exists because of the exploration, investment and marketing efforts of a small number of energy companies. This had nothing whatsoever to do with a nationally directed export planning policy.

    Australia had an import-planning policy at one time – we applied a strategy of import-substituting industrial development. This policy was abandoned because it was reducing real wages and causing exchange rate and interest rate management difficulties, leading to periodic recessions.

    It’s very clear that Australia is not really in control of its economic destiny. We are suppliers of bulk commodities and must sell these to the very few possible buyers of bulk commodities. There are not many of them and we have no capacity whatsoever to create new ones. The alternative to selling bulk commodities would be to sell services or manufactures. Australia does an utterly shit job of producing and selling services and does not have a manufacturing sector of any substance. Nor will it get one when the exchange rate is supported by the export of relatively high-priced bulks.

  29. Jaeger

    “The borders are closed because there are still active cases of COVID-19.
    If NZ has another outbreak after flights resume, would that be due to “federalism” too?

    NZ travel bubble being delayed by Australian states’ coronavirus border closures, Winston Peters says
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

    I love this bit of misdirection. What NZ is really saying is “we’re waiting for you to eliminate the virus”. Pointing at the issue with Australian states is a convenient way to buy time without having to admit that the real issue is that Australia still hasn’t eliminated.

  30. continuo,
    I think you’re right about the timing of the election. I expect the election happens before the bushfire season, rather than after it.

    Truthfully I’m a bit glum about it all. The ALP have wasted the last year, they’re letting this one slip. I don’t think they are going to be able to get their shit into gear when next year comes around.

    This is my dream for a labor government:
    Win an election!
    Then hold a royal commision into the AFP and News ltd,
    Sack most department secretaries in the commonwealth APS, and institue a 10 year up and out for anyone in the SES ranks.
    Implement a 15 year blacklist for retired MP’s making it illegal to be on a corporate board or a director of any company, national or international who had dealings with the government.
    Obviously setup an ICAC.
    Publicly fun 2 more newspapers in Australia.

    Anyway, I’ll keep dreaming.

  31. Cud Chewer @ #142 Thursday, June 11th, 2020 – 8:26 am

    Jaeger

    “The borders are closed because there are still active cases of COVID-19.
    If NZ has another outbreak after flights resume, would that be due to “federalism” too?

    NZ travel bubble being delayed by Australian states’ coronavirus border closures, Winston Peters says
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/nz-travel-bubble-delayed-coronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458

    I love this bit of misdirection. What NZ is really saying is “we’re waiting for you to eliminate the virus”. Pointing at the issue with Australian states is a convenient way to buy time.

    Especially with NZ not ruling out dealing directly with C-19 free States.

  32. Contrary to the views put on PB this morning, there are quite a few ideas on the right-wing of the political spectrum that are worth hearing and thinking about.

    Some examples include:
    – free market economics (but I’ve been around PB long enough not to expect too much enthusiasm on here for this concept);
    – libertarianism: the state should not interfere in people’s lives and choices any more than is required to prevent harm to others (John Stuart Mill put this case better than most);
    – stewardship: the idea, as expressed by Edmund Burke, that good government must be based on a sense of a contract between past generations, the people who are alive now and the generations yet to come; and
    – a supra-materialist approach to ethics, as opposed to the Leninist concept of “Who whom?” (ie, politics is only about who has control and therefore the ability to exploit others materially). The concept here is that there are principles of government and human behaviour that are beyond questions purely of economics: questions of principle, loyalty, service, the right of someone to hold onto property which they or their ancestors worked hard to accumulate, etc.

    Now, some would argue that these ideas are not exclusively the preserve of the political right. And that’s right: for instance, Edmund Burke, who is now a pinup boy for conservatism, always considered himself to be more of a Liberal than a Tory at heart. Likewise John Stuart Mill. And, on the other hand, Karl Marx held pretty similar views on many economic questions to the free marketeers.: Marx would have despised Keynesian economics (and, likewise, the nicest thing Keynes ever said about Marx was that he was “confused”).

    Environmentalism is another idea that ought to appeal to right-wingers, and it once did: the founding President of the Australian Conservation Foundation was Sir Garfield Barwick. There is nothing more in keeping with Burke’s concept of intergenerational stewardship than the precautionary principle which many environmentalists promote.

    The problem today with the political right is that it is a very broad church which tries to bring together a lot of totally contradictory ideas: conservatism and the ludicrous, miltaristic neo-conservatism; libertarianism and extreme social conservatism; free market economics and the sort of populist nonsense that underpins Trumpism (“we hate big government but you ought to massively subsidise industries so we can get jobs and we hate welfare dependence but please increase the rate of pension”), not to mention the absurdity of Brexit.

    In short, the political right in the Western World has some good ideas floating around, but organisationally it is a complete philosophical mess. The political left is heading the same way, but is still a bit more coherent IMO.

    But I reckon the old left-right divide in politics has basically failed us and urgently needs an adjustment/re-alignment. A good example of this is the rather extraordinary union-bashing coming from the US at the moment in relation to the police unions. Left-wing anti-unionism is certainly a novel development.

  33. “Essentially, Morrison is calling for WA, SA, Tas and Qld to nominate when NSW and Vic will be Covid free.”

    BK, I can’t figure out what that was in response to. My take is that the view that you cannot eliminate the virus is still predominant. With that belief it follows that the virus will get back into WA, SA etc. Hence why bother with borders. That’s a sad, sick view and example of how expecting to fail is self-fulfilling.

  34. I think I’ll go and watch Malcolm McDowell as Harry Flashman with Oliver Reed as the villainous Otto von Bismark in Royal Flash.

  35. Cud
    Morison’s words to Neil Mitchell.
    “And so what I would like Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania to do is to nominate the date that those borders will be open in July.”

  36. Australia could be a world leader in the production of natural fibre textiles, using wool and cotton. But we’re not. We sell bulks. We do not even wash wool any more, still less turn it into materials suitable for textile production. We could be the centre of textile production and use, including in fashion and homewares. But we’re not. We could have done this at any time from the 1850s onwards. But we haven’t. We won’t.

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