Eden-Monaro by-election minus three weeks

Good news and bad news for the Liberals in Eden-Monaro, respectively courtesy of a mystery internal poll and the order of candidates on the ballot paper.

News Corp journalist Andrew Clennell reported on Sky News yesterday that an internal party poll — which party was not disclosed — suggested the Liberals are the front-runners for the Eden-Monaro by-election, now three weeks away. After exclusion of the 11% undecided, the primary votes as reported round to Liberal 43%, Labor 35%, Nationals 7%, Greens 7%, Shooters and Fishers 6% and One Nation 3%. Since One Nation aren’t actually running, the poll may not exactly be hot off the press. Clennell reported that the Liberals do not consider their position to be quite as rosy as the poll suggests. Beyond that, the only detail on the poll was that it was a robo-poll with a sample of 600.

There was less happy news for the Liberals from Wednesday’s ballot paper draw, at which their candidate Fiona Kotvojs drew the fourteenth and final position. Donkey vote effects tend to be over-hyped, and since Labor also drew a higher spot on the ballot paper last time, they should in theory be no more advantaged by voters numbering straight down the ticket than they were when they very nearly lost the seat at the election. However, Peter Brent has rustled together some numbers that suggest being last on the ticket is more harmful than being first is beneficial, the average impact on the primary vote over the past six federal elections being -2.0% and +0.7% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

27 comments on “Eden-Monaro by-election minus three weeks”

  1. Reminds me of the by-elections in the former seat of Batman and the other by-elections on super Saturday

    The pro libs/nat media polls had Labor losing all of those seats

  2. A robopoll for Eden Monaro has a lot of things that could go wrong with it – getting the geographical representation right would be difficult

  3. Somehow I suspect a Robo-poll of just 600 voters in a very diverse demographic and large geographical area is not likely to be that reliable. Looking through the list of 14 candidates – there are several who have a high profile in their local communities – mostly via participation in local government. The ongoing failure to come good with promised substantial financial support for last summer’s bushfires will I think see a good number of voters express their pain by voting for candidates with a track record of community service over Liberal, Nationals and even Labor candidates. Those with a more conservataive frame of mind may well go for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Pary, in the absence of any One Nation candidate. Given the history of by-elections in Australia, my hunch is Labor will hang on to Eden-Monaro.

  4. With Libs and Nats at 50%, this doesn’t look good for Labor.
    Still, it’s a dated poll. Labor will depend on
    1. A strong endorsement from Mike Kelly.
    2. The Government’s poor bushfire response.
    3. Backtracking on Covid payments.
    4. Cutbacks to the ABC.
    5. The donkey vote.
    6. Lots of luck.

  5. Regarding Albo’s mocking in the previous comment: in the previous EM thread I posted Kristy McBain [office] had emailed me from an old mailing list as I have resided in Paterson for over 6 years now.

    Copied below is part of my reply and I suspect the sentiments contained there in are very common in the feedback to Ms McBain

    “Hi Kristy,

    Thanks for the email.

    I wish you well in the upcoming Eden-Monaro bi-election. Dr Kelly was first class member and will be a very hard act to follow. I would not like to see another climate change denier enter Parliament.
    ….”

  6. Watching Insiders is like reading the Australian.

    Meanwhile the NRL has taken a hit in breaking news Bulldogs v Roosters game postponed due to COVID 19 fears.

    I think Ardern wins that one not Hunt.

  7. Pegasus

    Good on Albo. However his days are probably numbered as the climate deniers in the ALP keep promoting coal and demonising the Greens.

    Edit: Given Benson’s comments on ALP preferences it also shows the maturity of the Greens in not creating a preference dogfight in a seat they won’t win.

  8. Socrates @ #5 Saturday, June 13th, 2020 – 9:37 am

    Thanks William. Labor needs to run a locally focused campaign here. They should highlight the non-payment of bushfire relief.

    Labor needs, Labor should, Labor has to, It’d be good if Labor….and so on…
    The Liberals need to…..sounds weird doesn’t it….The tories only ‘need’ to be themselves for some reason that works for them.
    Labor is always on the verge of ‘becoming’……I had a day off PB yesterday to see if I’d perk up.
    Seems not.

  9. Passed a prepolling booth today.

    posters of Kotvojs, McBain and Hicks up. Kotvojs posters coupled with posters of Morrison. ‘Growing the economy’. Almost no HTVC handers outers. It would be interesting to know whether the Morrison posters are up in the fire affected booths as well.

    In terms of growing the economy, I counted 21 open shops between 10 am and 11 am. Total number of customers: 7.

  10. I would be interested in voting for the Greens if they actually started being a Greens Party.

    But their population policy negates any other biodiversity policy they might come up with.

  11. “If the ALP cannot retain this seat then that forgettable bloke who leads them should resign.”…

    Just as Shorten is still there…. Albo will remain there…. no matter what the result is.
    Worry instead about ScuMo and the Snap Back…. if there is no Snap Back ScuMo will be gone… and forgotten…

  12. “However his days are probably numbered as the climate deniers in the ALP keep promoting coal and demonising the Greens.”…

    Greens:
    “Net zero or net negative Australian greenhouse gas emissions by no later than 2040”
    https://greens.org.au/policies/climate-change-and-energy

    Therefore the promise of the Greens is 20 more years of coal…. Are Adam Bandt’s days numbered too?

    For both ALP and Greens voters in Eden-Monaro the objective is to defeat the Liberals and you defeat the Liberals by exchanging preferences and vote Liberals last….

    Pretty simple….

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