Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

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  1. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    Dads are like that, Bushfire.
    ______
    Unless before he beats you asks ‘do you want the belt or the stick?’

  2. Right, Churchill was shit because Hitler and Japan were idiots. That makes sense.

    Without Churchill taking up the fight to Hitler either the UK would have made a peace deal or lost (same same). Hitler would then have had the run of Europe and the Middle East. Without Churchill’s efforts the US would likely have remained neutral. The Ribbentrop Pact would likely have remained in place.

    What in unimaginably horrific place the World would be now.

    As for Einstein, yes he was a scientific giant – probably the greatest of the 20th Century but he didn’t have such an impact as saving Western Europe from Nazi and Stalinist domination and quite possibly the Far East from Japanese domination.

    I note everyone talking up Curtin continue to avoid mentioning his terrible racism.

  3. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 10:35 pm
    The Ribbentrop Pact would likely have remained in place.
    __________
    yes I can see that being a very stable and peaceful border for many decades. 🙂

  5. Bucephalus @ #1838 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 8:35 pm

    Right, Churchill was shit because Hitler and Japan were idiots. That makes sense.

    Without Churchill taking up the fight to Hitler either the UK would have made a peace deal or lost (same same). Hitler would then have had the run of Europe and the Middle East. Without Churchill’s efforts the US would likely have remained neutral. The Ribbentrop Pact would likely have remained in place.

    What in unimaginably horrific place the World would be now.

    As for Einstein, yes he was a scientific giant – probably the greatest of the 20th Century but he didn’t have such an impact as saving Western Europe from Nazi and Stalinist domination and quite possibly the Far East from Japanese domination.

    I note everyone talking up Curtin continue to avoid mentioning his terrible racism.

    Everything’s about fighting for you, isn’t it?

    Wars usually start because someone’s ego was too big, often there’s more than one.

    A war starting is the ultimate failure of those in power and the price is paid by others, rarely themselves.

    Peaceful achievement versus war achievements, ones got a huge head start in my books and it ain’t war.

  7. Barney,

    It’s not about fighting but so many of the viewpoints promulgated here are so out of touch with most Australians that I see it as my duty to provide counter balance.

  14. Guyraur

    On the process of backing Labor up on Morrison’s housing policy. Ian Verrender tells people the hours worked dropped by 20%

    That’s a lot of income loss in the community.

    It is a reduction of 20% in economic activity

    Or perhaps a bit less – if the last 20% of hours has diminishing productivity

    Or probably quite a bit more – if the restrictions hit (hourly) productivty as well as hours (almost certainly the case)

    The cash shortfall can be addressed with money – JobKeeper “Gold”!

    But it’s the activity / output shortfall that is the real problem

  17. Greatest man of the 20th century? Dead heat between Stalin and Mao.
    Stalin for converting the USSR into a modern industrial power and for playing a seminal role in the Soviet defeat of Germany and it’s allies.
    Mao for freeing China from European imperialism and enabling the development of China as a great economic power.

  18. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdaB-Ul5hyA

    Saw this on ABC earlier. Haven’t followed it up but the numbers are interesting
    15 percent of covid cases asymptomatic based on a study I haven’t check out. Lower than the 30-40 percent that’s been suggested elsewhere. If its only 15% that’s actually a good thing.
    Also, it says that being asymptomatic means you’re one third less likely to be infectious. Reason given is you’re not coughing. Hmm… maybe. Even so its social distancing that is dong the grunt work here.

  19. Funny isn’t that when we think of “great” people we think of leaders. Rather than thinking about the people actually responsible for material progress – scientists and engineers. Its technology that has improved the lot of us hairless chimps, not political systems.

  20. Mao, Stalin, Lenin, Hitler, Nicholas 2, Kaiser Wilhelm 2, Hirohito, Foreign Minister Edward Grey, Trump, Nixon…there must be many more… Kissinger, Shah Reza Pahlavi, Brezhnev, Mussolini, Franco….

    It’s easier to find disaster than greatness…

  23. ‘Get off my lawn!’ is absolutely the cut through moment of the day.

    Maybe Scotty should:
    a) ask in advance, and
    b) use Puke’s lawn next time?

  25. Einstein was lucky because of the change of century, and people kinda, sorta understand gravity (but not relativity).

    But “Greatest Person”??

    Gandhi?

  30. Davidwh
    The scheme is flawed. It would make better sense to implement a 15% subsidy for all projects over $10,000 up to a maximum subsidy of $150,000.
    ———————–
    That makes a lot more sense and i think would achieve something.

  31. Mavis says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:45 pm

    I can’t but help to think that with Mattis’ intervention, the paradigm has markedly shifted. Many serving senior officers would owe their promotion to him; so who do they owe their allegiance to? To a draft-dodging sociopath, or to a man who seems to be endowed with a degree of honour. Mind you, why he signed up to Trump is a mystery. That said, I’m willing to stick my neck out, predicting that Trump will be trounced in a landslide on November, 3.
    —————————–
    That could be explained by the American culture of serving the state and he might have thought he could do the job and Trump would respect him enough to do that job only to find out that Trump is as bad as the critics say he is.

  32. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:33 pm

    Morrison says Australia should not import Black Lives Matter protests after deaths-in-custody rally
    ——————————–
    Yet the reactionary faction of the LNP likes to import the policies pushed by Trump and the Fox crowd.

  33. Churchill proves the saying not to judge historical people by today’s standards and highlights what is wrong with today’s politics because he made big mistakes that would sink politicians today but back then they were allowed to bounce back which Churchill did.

  34. Worst leaders of the last 150 years?

    Hitler – Mao – Stalin – Pol Pot.

    Tser Nicholas II not because he was necessarily a terrible person but if only he had reformed Russia into a constitutional monarchy then much would be different.

    Franz Joseph of Austria for allowing grief to override better judgement when responding to the assassination of his son and heir in 1914.

  35. Bluebottle @ #1973 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 12:24 am

    ‘Get off my lawn!’ is absolutely the cut through moment of the day.

    Maybe Scotty should:
    a) ask in advance, and
    b) use Puke’s lawn next time?

    The worst thing about this event was the mocking and joking by Morrison after.

    I thought he handled the incident quite well, but once he thought the cameras were off he reverted to something we have seen before.

  36. Franz Joseph of Austria for allowing grief to override better judgement when responding to the assassination of his son and heir in 1914.

    Nephew, actually. And Frank Joe didn’t even like him that much.

  37. Angus Taylor MP
    @AngusTaylorMP
    · Jun 3
    Australia has finalised the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Arrangement with USA that will bolster fuel security and enhance our ability to withstand global shocks @secbrouillette @USAembassyinOZ #auspol

    Urban Wronski
    @UrbanWronski
    ·
    8h
    Just one thing, Gus. All that oil is stored in the USA.
    Hardly a reserve if you have to wait for it to be shipped all the way here.
    And just one other little snag. 3 out of our 7 local refineries have closed down.
    Boy, did they see you coming.

  39. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has declared a state of emergency after 20,000 tonnes of diesel oil leaked into a river within the Arctic Circle.

    The spill happened when a fuel tank at a power plant near the Siberian city of Norilsk collapsed last Friday.

    The power plant’s director Vyacheslav Starostin has been taken into custody until 31 July, but not yet charged.

    The plant is owned by a subsidiary of Norilsk Nickel, which is the world’s leading nickel and palladium producer.

    The Russian Investigative Committee (SK) has launched a criminal case over the pollution and alleged negligence, as there was reportedly a two-day delay in informing the Moscow authorities about the spill.

    Ground subsidence beneath the fuel storage tanks is believed to have caused the spill. Arctic permafrost has been melting in exceptionally warm weather for this time of year.
    …
    The spill has contaminated a 350 sq km (135 sq mile) area, state media report.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52915807

  40. The German government coalition on Wednesday approved a sweeping €130 billion ($145 billion) stimulus package to kickstart the economy after the novel coronavirus pandemic.

    Among the measures are family subsidies for €300 ($340) for each child, doubling existing rebates to €6,000 ($6,800) for the purchase of electric cars, as well as cutting value added tax (VAT) until the end of the year.

    Germany had previously agreed a €1.1 trillion ($1.2 trillion) rescue package in March. The new spending would be in addition to those measures, which included loan guarantees and subsidies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/04/coronavirus-live-updates-us/#link-EGI4D6XY7ZCYZNB7S43Z4D6KTA

    I may be missing something but I don’t think Australia has had any ‘green’ initiatives in any of our stimulus measures.

  42. Re the Reno Rorts. In my neighbourhood, there is a couple who just sold their home a month ago and are moving down south to the Murray River. They have plans to build a new home. They were just ready to sign a contract to start building their new home. Along comes, Reno Rorts and all they have to do is delay by a day in signing the contract and they qualify for a $25,000 grant. I say good luck to them.
    However, there will be no stimulation with this grant, no extra tradesmen used, no new construction, no jobs saved. Just someone who has the money to build a new home at the place and the right time to receive a $25,000 gift. How many are there in the same situation or near the same situation, how lucky are they?

  43. Just scrolled the entire ‘top stories’ front page of the smh. No recession, no Robodebt.
    One opinion piece on Homebuilder (critical).
    Otherwise it’s all sweet!
    Feel like singing three choruses of Morristan My Home before brekkie!!

  44. Muskiemp @ #1992 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 8:18 am

    Re the Reno Rorts. In my neighbourhood, there is a couple who just sold their home a month ago and are moving down south to the Murray River. They have plans to build a new home. They were just ready to sign a contract to start building their new home. Along comes, Reno Rorts and all they have to do is delay by a day in signing the contract and they qualify for a $25,000 grant. I say good luck to them.
    However, there will be no stimulation with this grant, no extra tradesmen used, no new construction, no jobs saved. Just someone who has the money to build a new home at the place and the right time to receive a $25,000 gift. How many are there in the same situation or near the same situation, how lucky are they?

    How lucky are we to be living in the glorious one-party state of Morristan!
    Make that FOUR choruses of Morristan My Home before brekkie!!!

  45. Rex,

    Covid19 does not exist in SA, it left weeks ago. You might have it in Vic and NSW but has effectively been removed from the rest of Australia.

    And if people want to protest, it is their right and they suffer the consequences (catching Covid) even though it is highly unlikely.

  46. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1985 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 5:40 am

    Bluebottle @ #1973 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 12:24 am

    ‘Get off my lawn!’ is absolutely the cut through moment of the day.

    Maybe Scotty should:
    a) ask in advance, and
    b) use Puke’s lawn next time?

    The worst thing about this event was the mocking and joking by Morrison after.

    I thought he handled the incident quite well, but once he thought the cameras were off he reverted to something we have seen before.

    ‘mocking and joking’?
    What’s that?
    Is that something Labor might find useful?

  47. mundo @ #1996 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1985 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 5:40 am

    Bluebottle @ #1973 Friday, June 5th, 2020 – 12:24 am

    ‘Get off my lawn!’ is absolutely the cut through moment of the day.

    Maybe Scotty should:
    a) ask in advance, and
    b) use Puke’s lawn next time?

    The worst thing about this event was the mocking and joking by Morrison after.

    I thought he handled the incident quite well, but once he thought the cameras were off he reverted to something we have seen before.

    ‘mocking and joking’?
    What’s that?
    Is that something Labor might find useful?

    If only Labor could have a Get Off My Lawn cut-through moment one day.
    But, in the meantime……2,3,4,
    Mooo-rristan! My Moooooo-rristan
    My Hoooome, My Glorious Hoooooome
    Moooo-rri…..etc

  49. Who was NOT the greatest person of the twentieth century? Tony Abbott, John Howard, Peter Costello, Billy Snedden? Rupert Murdoch?

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